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Too early to be sure of this...but 28th-29th is flagging mixed and icy, significant for travel on untreated surfaces. See attachment.blue area. GFS looks like it's missing this but maybe I'm relying too much on other models. Anyways, WSSI-P has it for now. We'll see if it hold.

-4 Wantage and Frankfort Township. NJ climate page has it too.

Here's what I'm using for my forecast... the colder RGEM ECMWF... Both 6z/23 versions-ops. NWS imo, looks too light but even their amounts are good start for the refresher. -4 here for a low in Wantage. My guess is there will have to be some slower travel tomorrow morning for an hour or two in the snow squall line, and prior frozen roads. Melting NYC begins around Noon. Hopefully enough falls to hang on. Also, since this will occur after 12z, my confidence on what is measured in CP is below average. I'll be happy if they note 0.3". Am not starting a stand alone miracle thread, until I see a much better chance for 1" in CP.

Thanks for checking-filling the M data Don. Sweating out CP... I just don't know what's happening there. I think they'll need the Tue morning refresher to make it. Close call.

Miracle on Broadway? I saw a post earlier and cant find it... am considering the long shot 1.2" needed to reach 3" for Dec. What was it called? Miracle for Dec 2024? I'll make a decision on a thread at 7PM tonight. Seems like at least some media forecasters are blowing off what may happen Tuesday morning near sunrise. I can see it as squall line of briefly 1/2S and piling up an inch in 2 hours. I just need a little more model guidance and the title and then decide whether its worth it... I'm pretty sure NYC subforum members will be excited by what we see near sunrise Tuesday.

Concerned about a lot of things: Drought monitor not moving. All the warmth that's coming... as someone posted, it will be mins especially around 12/28-30... still allows ice I84. It's also looking above normal precip to me, 12/30-1/6 and maybe beyond? Agree on Tomer's post on storm potential. If I can suggest... for lr try using 850 temps for above or below normal temps instead of the 2M for these long range outlooks. 2M doesn't always transfer well from aloft. I'll be offline all day... have some fun.

flurries last night and there might be some dustings but here...cant see a dusting in this spot of Wantage NJ.

NYC - Long Island-possibly Philly: There will probably be a 1/4 to 1" of new snow between roughly 6AM and Noon Tuesday. Philly is on the southern edge so it may only be flurries. Still winter driving habits advised-plan on a little caution if you have to be out and about Tuesday morning from the previously frozen roads. I think this will assure a white Christmas morning (1/2" or more on the ground for official 1" snow depth), anywhere where there is more than an inch on the ground this morning. I might be pushing it a little and maybe we need to say 1.5" of snow on the ground this morning to assure a white Christmas but short days and generally below freezing temps should help get its there. Your snow depth reports Christmas morning after the kids (grands) are done unwrapping-celebrating.

Good morning everyone - Dec 22. A white Christmas is assured for most of us in e PA/NJ northward to Canada. Tuesday morning Midnight-Noon I78 in PA-NJ northward. A 3 hour period of snow deposits 0.5-1.5" needing road treatments for reducing slippery travel. Normal manageable winter driving habits - caution advised. Roads frozen from this weekends bitter cold. Next events: Day after Christmas (26th): e PA, northern NJ- Southeast NYS. Snow possible with 1/2-3" potential but model uncertainty whether this occurs so it's not a given yet. It may begin Christmas night? Also this could also extend to CT. I84 corridor northward 28th-30th: Periods of Ice mixed wintry possible but lots of uncertainty. Could be just rain. Maps added are the generalized NWS 5AM snow forecast that informed their early morning products. Also a map of the Blend of Models snowfall which is a good start for what should occur early Christmas Eve. AND--- if you're interested---a map of soil temps 2 inches below the surface in NYS. Interesting that its near zero on the surface, but above freezing 2" below ground.

Probably my last on Tuesday mornings event (or non if it doesn't pan out). 13z/21 Blend of Models and EPS prob of >1"

Am not following up. I will say this. This event is the way I more frequently remember in the 50s60s. Blowing drifting cold. This is a more reasonable start to winter.

Still unsure when we're going to warm above normal again. in CP..probably past 12/26...but big time... not likely til the 30th. Do we need to reassess winter in CP based on a weak or non Nina?

OK... further stats if not previously covered CP. First inch historically, correct me if I'm wrong. 12/19. I saw something else a few pages ago, but I checked XM. Again correct me. First two inches historically 12/27, presuming we exceed two today,

So, I'd like to go back to start of this thread and point out something. The Blend of Models-top graphic was pretty accurate and depicting the primary threat region for biggest snow... see blue hues. It was two times as much in reality. Also STATS based off a NWS forecast suites, were HUGELY in error... imo... BUT.... we found back in the 2015-18 time frame that the MAX AMOUNT probably was often exceeded. So we don't budget enough info for the high end... I presume CP will end up with 2+ today...

Hard to believe no report as of 750A... but at least we have 2.2 Newark and 2.0 LGA so far per OKX LSR.

The chance for a white Christmas in CP NYC looks like a legit possibility as well as most surrounding environs w LI, sw CT, NNJ.se NYS ne PA. am expecting dusting of snow Tuesday morning around sunrise. That should help.

Looking for the official CP report...is there one? I saw the 2" of snow on the ground at KEWR.

Just waking up to a solid 4.4" event this part of Wantage NJ, fine flake snow in progress.

Wantage-this southern lower part.. 0.5" 29F

you'll double or triple what you have now, by 6AM Saturday.

Hi! Thought it might be interesting to check-speculate on a white Christmas (since I didnt see the topic earlier). Been watching the EC SNOW DEPTH guidance. I Another uncertain minor 2-6 hour snow event possible between 6A-Noon Tuesday the 24th, that should leave fairly large chunk of our area to qualify as 1" of snow on the ground Christmas morning (rounding 1/2" up). Temps in the interior will be at or below freezing by sundown today and continue possibly through 10AM Christmas Day. So where we exceed an inch today, we have a chance of 1/2" or more on the ground Christmas morning. Attached the op 12z/20 ECMWF attempt to predict snow depth. Grey is about 1/2". XMACIS 12/25 CP amounts attached. I checked EWR which also dates back to 2009 when they 4 on the ground in the morning. . Last time CP moe than 1/2" on the ground on Christmas Day...2009. Probably not going to happen but it might. Depends on tonight and Tuesday morning.

Wantage NJ 0.2" as of 1215P 29F. Roads wet, some driveway-sidewalk pavement snow covered.

no insights right now... bottom line... not sure what drives raw NWS snow forecasts, but the NBM I thought was supposed to be a first cut for the forecasters database? Any NWS forecaster comment? One thing I do know... to respond to model trends, you've got to be nimble or you'll probably be in error--- though NOT always. Takes ALOT of concentrated effort within 2 hours of issuance time (330A/330P). If you're committed to available data at midnight-noon, your briefings at 5A/5P could be missing something important? Again not always.

Something in terms of snow will happen. we're not going to go into the Saturday night arctic airmass without an event

Euro pretty weak compared to the 00z/GFS/CMC models. As you know I like Canadian models when they're stable from run to run.