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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    You may be right... I don't know. What I do know is that anything beyond two weeks with reliability is not easy and I myself, while I look to our long rangers for hope (or lack of), I don't think we yet have a good handle on the multiple influences that carve out a season. So, I'll continue to pay attention but I'm not confident of anything beyond 11 days.
  2. wdrag
    You're right but ... an extreme event of 40, I know I'm not there predicting that with any confidence-reliability. The idea of 20-25 should cue up attention.
  3. wdrag
    Hi! I've been offline for 4 hours. You may already have this imagery... CoCoRAHS snowfall for the event up through their ob time this morning. Tomorrow I may post a two day summary total for those locations that will report both days. No thunder: so despite no thunder...drama occurred NYC forum and NYS forums. Power outages: not much and in NYS concentrated where I didn't expect...well upstate near and w of BGM. Thanks much for all your reports, model posts-impressions, climate comments. I'll be curious as to the NESIS evaluation for this storm (not top 20 in our area but ne USA, maybe?)
  4. wdrag
    Wantage NJ at this location about 11.9 for a final.
  5. wdrag
    Wantage NJ Moderate snow at 759A. 1/2S
  6. wdrag
    fwiw: I had remarked on banding qpf per multiple models n central PA to near ALB and mentioned 20-25" bullseyes in two states. The EC KUCHERA had 33" idea. I've added the northwest transition of the big band originally slated for I84 back to a IPT BGM ALB axis beginning the 00z/15 cycle. About 48 hours LT on a consideration that became much more emphatic with future model cycles. Here's 3 different model samples at various Lead times) (no UK added since the UK is referenced above), and finally the EC consideration on the 12th... too far south but it was this consistently modeled snow amount forecast that helped prompt my confidence for a top 20 event.
  7. wdrag
    Small sample CoCoRAHS reports as of 730A. am probably offline til 945A.
  8. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 4sw storm total 11.0 S- small flake. SD a solid 10" . had quite bit of wind during the night. Up to 24.1F now. Walt 730A
  9. wdrag
    Unsure whether we return to La Nina base state before January at the earliest. Too much -NAO and hints at occasionally Positive PNA and from what I can see in the NAEFS, winter storm possibilities 21st-30th, special emphasis on the 24th-30th. Too much general blocking potential and jet modeled almost constantly south of our forum with a trough in the east. Doubt very much whether we can get something close to what just occurred the 16th-17th but I don't think we're done with snow this DEC in NYC. Since it looks like the sample size for LaNina behaviors has been expanded in Dec, what might we think about for JFM? Thanks, Walt
  10. wdrag
    I see it's still moderate snow at times along and north of I80 PA NJ and much of nw LI. I would think this is a high impact storm there and I suspect will be a top 20 event in the ne snow storms when all is said and done. We'll try to detail that more around 11A. Wantage NJ storm total at 545A is 10.7" (1.1 since 315A). Densely wind driven packed snow. 22.8F and rising.
  11. wdrag
    Am hopeful that upon further review, that the event produced at least low end of the ranges. I see it's still moderate snow at times along and north of I80 PA NJ and much of nw LI. I would think this is a high impact storm there and I suspect will be a top 20 event in the ne snow storms when all is said and done. We'll try to detail that more around 11A.
  12. wdrag
    That is helpful Don. I appreciate your checking. Later, Walt
  13. wdrag
    ALY can answer, but my understanding, similar to many offices... can't find and train a reliable observer within the requirements of NWS CLI to be representative of previous POU observer location. Something like that. Takes time, effort, conscientiousness, paying attention to detail and maybe we don't pay enough. NWS has other resources including CoCoRAHS, CO-OP observers, NOHRSC, etc.
  14. wdrag
    Thanks! I agree w you. My guess is that there will eventually be some sort of normalization of this snowfall data, as NHC with prior history etc etc.
  15. wdrag
    Jackpot areas so far: 25-28" reports very near BGM (3 reports 25 or more), and multiple 20's IPT. Here's a look at reports that posted thru 350AM. Power outage problem did materialize as I anticipated. That is good news. Have not looked at guidance since 930PM last night.
  16. wdrag
    Be thankful for whatever we get. I forgot... NWS doesn't have snow climo anymore for POU, MPO. So I guess we won't know for sure on amounts per NWS CLI. Just have to regionalize average the nearby CoCORAHS etc values. BDR daily RER snowfall 6.5", ABE 9.2, PHL 6.3 - the latter PA values not daily RER's.
  17. wdrag
    CP: I did not check, will try in an hour but if someone has the answer. The 6.5 " in CP in one day is largest since??? Thanks.
  18. wdrag
    Concerned about CLI DB. Someone please correct me. I see the excellent midnight CP 6.5" yet, the CLI does not show this as a record. XMACIS does. Why the difference between XMACIS Daily Almanac and the OKX CLI (5.3 vs 7.0). Thank you very much in advance. Almanac for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) December 16, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 43 63 in 1971 19 in 1886 Min Temperature M 32 48 in 1971 7 in 1876 Avg Temperature M 37.2 55.5 in 1971 14.5 in 1917 Precipitation M 0.12 2.25 in 1974 0.00 in 2017 Snowfall M 0.2 5.3 in 1948 0.0 in 2019 Snow Depth M - 10 in 1960 0 in 2019 HDD (base 65) M 28 50 in 1917 9 in 1971 CDD (base 65) M 0 0 in 2019 0 in 2019
  19. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s High Point 315AM report 9.6 total (4.3 since the 845PM report). SD 9. Densely packed small flake snowfall, wind driven. 20.*F and rising a bit
  20. wdrag
    Hopefully enough snow for most to be satisfied... will check back around 4A.
  21. wdrag
    Sandy Hook in minor flood right now, with a surge of 2.2 ft and ne wind gusting 42 kt. Hit 50 kt at Seaside a little bit ago. NJ still only 13,000 meters out.
  22. wdrag
    Will get a Co CoRAHS map going tomorrow morning around 9A. In the meantime, a quick sampling of what's been reported to the NWS or there had time to post.
  23. wdrag
    My guess is a minimum additional 2" of snow-sleet CP from this point to 9AM Thursday. Could be as much as 4 or 5. Use your best judgement.
  24. wdrag
    I need to look at this, including T sections,. Should have confidence on NYC leftovers... even if they don't record 8" NYC or southern LI and Monmouth County coast have big icing problems ahead, when the temp crashes to 25F in a 30-60 minute period with possible wind shift from NE to N around 5 or 6AM.
  25. wdrag
    NJ power outages now going up. 10,000 meters. Small but coming up. definitely a bad news for people who need heat.
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