wdrag

WOW... 25mm light orange is 1" melted in 12 hrs. still big. my experience, often the big qpf has sleet and rain. In this case... i dont have much to look at but I'm wary of ALL snow in 1.5" qpf unless clearly the soundings support. You all are on top of this. Hang on... even if we don't get top 20 snow, some folks on LI and NJ are probably going to wish it was powder. It just looks a little dangerous to me with sleet slashing through the air on gusty winds or wet snow pasting on the NJ coast and parts of LI. 6" 32-33F wet snow is my threshold for widespread power outages. It first begins with 4" wet snow. Talk after 4p.

I think everyone up to I80 will mix but this is yet to be determined. It's going to be a mess I95 in Nj and LI after the initial thump. Maybe UVV will overcome but whenever, the dry slot arrives, then I think thereafter we look at sleet and small flake snow...if indeed the dry slot arrives with maybe a chance of a little bigger flakes on the swan song Thursday sunrise or after. Again, this presumes a sNJ coast hugger overnight Wednesday before shifting eastward. Let's see the EC, and really some more model cycles. Future NAM has to backdown too if we go with the CMC/RGEM/GFS. Plenty of unknowns. Patience

watch for sleet LI and s of I80 which is treated like 10 to 1 in the snow ratios...bad news for southern edge if sleet develops. Those 10 to 1 ratios won't work with sleet involved... slash by ~2/3rds once the sleet develops.

Euro EPS has been very very steady through 06z..just ever so slight southward drift. If the GFS is to win this southward track, the UK and NAM need to come south, and then the EC will join. 12z UK may have some precursor trend soon?? For now...stay the course on everything... allow NWS office and WPC collaborative processes work up the 330PM updated graphics. Ensembles can steady the model disparity. A snow storm is coming to the northeast an impressive 6 hour thump Wednesday evening-night.

Wantage NJ. Almost 5/8 mi. coming down pretty good ... small to moderate sized wet flakes. 33.3F at 1115A

Wantage NJ 0.5" total now and 0.1-0.2 slush on pavement..some pavement starting to get slightly slippery. If this keeps up thru 1P, they'll need a little salt on the rural roads above 700 feet.

Wantage NJ 0.3" at 10A - continuing 3/4s- 3.3. acscums on trees/roofs, grass but only sketchy on some untreated pavement.

Wantage: 3/4S- decent flakes. I see that nice bright band on the backside of this event just se of BGM... Some of that has to be pretty decent snowflake size.

Wantage NJ 4sw: Had mostly r- and some ip- for about 90 minutes but all snow (2mi) now. 0.2" total so far...its wet snow out there but didn't clear. we'll see what we have at 1P. 33.1F. pave wet. 942A

Don't give up on snow in NYC this afternoon. Could get interesting for an hour two around 1-3P.

Let's wait this out... I need to NAM to be more realistically south and closer to EC or GFS. It cant keep trying to drill big snow into the southern Adirondacks.

Hi! Gradient collaborated grids that see adjacent offices and work with together with WPC. So qpf, whether its all snow and the associated mixing ratios dictate snow amounts. These are put together sometimes before new guidance that you and i see and sometimes hastily because of the eastern time zone and 330-4PM/AM deadlines (deadline office dependent). I'd take the lower numbers of the range as a start, and focus on the axis. I want to reserve comment on anything beyond what we see here, til 430 or 5P. Too many models and interps...

Mostly rain here since around 810A in Wantage. at least 0.2" snowfall so far. 33.1F. roads wet.

Need to wait til 4P....thanks

NWS collaborated snow amounts in case this hasn't posted yet... only thru 7A Thursday. Temps will probably be generally 20-25F during the entire snowstorm across nw NJ/seNYS/ne PA and CT.

Tables for JFK/LGA I think attached. Have looked at two day (crossover with the midnight climate... tougher for top 20 depending on where all snow but, MPO seems a best fit... others may too-dependent on track and mix potential. Won't post the two day til late today or tomorrow if that still applies.

First tenth of an inch in Wantage as sleet has changed to snow. Pavement getting slimy and very slippery on wood. 34F. ground white.

I'll add the data shortly... ONE error on my part ... this data is I think driven by calendar day. I may add some two day totals to bring better perspective. Even so, I think top 20 is possible by midnight Wednesday night. It does appear to me a lot of the big FGEN 1-3"/hr has to be before midnight or earlier for LI/I80) south... unless the storm slows and I don't think that will happen. However, I80 ned including LI... i would not be surprised at lagging bands of 1/2MI Snow rolling southeastward after sunrise Thursday as the back side of the comma head moves east (getting what ne PA has all night)--this presuming the EPS is 80% accurate.

Wantage snow and sleet mix east 722A and temp now 34.5. Tinge of white on the roofs.

You'll get there...first a mix of sleet and rain then wet snow and sleet. Not sure if you can accumulate more than an inch or 2 by 2P.

ice pellets at 644A in Wantage NJ

Few small flakes in Wantage NJ.. temps 34-36F around here.

From Topic headline at 6AM Monday 12/14/20. Please monitor NWS Watch-Warnings for this storm and associated statements and still uncertainty on where highest impact. There is/was some overall slight southward shift in the guidance in the past 24 hours and so my uncertainty for the forum is northern CT-Catskills, and LI/I95 southeastward. WPC still has 1.5"+ qpf just s of I80-LI and 3/4" into northern CT. Added the EPS 10 to 1 ratio graphic of both today and Wednesday nights storm. I think that serves as continued good starting point with the usual caveat on the northern and southern fringes. If you have travel plans Wednesday into Thursday I95 northwestward from VA through WV, PA, NJ, NYS and southern New England it's probably a good idea to consider changes, based on your NWS or other favorite media outlet forecasts. I think this will be a top 20 snow storm for a few parts of our NYC subforum (basically ~ 1 foot will prompt that review) but unsure where. For now between I95 to I84. Anticipating (not guaranteed) widespread closures or delays for all transportation systems I95 corridor northwestward Wednesday evening into Thursday morning,. For those who have access and wish to do so, you can calculate an experimental storm index to get an idea of what is probably coming. I don't want to presume more than Major yet (crippling is the next step up). Here is some information. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/?nesis Still variability in northward extent of heavy 1 foot snow ranging from the NAM Adirondacks to the GFS-RGEM I80-LI. UKMET is still quite far north. Ensembled r/s line looks to remain mostly south of I80-LI but awfully close, close enough to think sleet, rain or freezing rain mixes in for a time after the initial Wednesday evening thump for LI and s of I80. EPS continues almost unyielding on the widespread 8-18" snowstorm (isolated 2 feet possible in the banding somewhere north of I80-LI). Major power outages possible wherever the 6" of 32-33F wet snow accumulates along with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH. If this were to occur, it would most likely develop between 9 PM and midnight Wednesday evening per consistent modeling of snow onslaught and wind gusts increasing past 30 MPH. Am targeting LI south coast and NJ coast but this will require 6" wet snow (32-33f). Isolated wind gusts above 50 MPH possible on those coasts. Snowfall rates of 1-3"/hr possible in northward transiting bands Wednesday-evening/ night. Where these tend to park on the northern extent of the storm, will probably be the 2 feet of snow, especially with ratios drier than 10 to 1 (maybe 13 to 1). NWS has the multi model ratio blend tool and BUFKIT can assist for those who have that tool. There could be closing bands of moderate snowfall Thursday morning after sunrise into early afternoon as the comma head tends to fold southeastward behind the eastnortheastward departing storm. Clearing the first few inches of snow around 8-10PM Wednesday will make it easier to remove the additional snow Thursday morning. Where it's wet-caution for those with heart conditions., This strong easterly surface gradient (northeast wind) between the cold 1035MB high over Quebec and and the probable 995-1000MB low near Cape May early Thursday will produce minor to moderate coastal flooding, for the Thursday morning high tide cycle. Follow NWS statements. So the base EPS snowfall graphic is added. Also multiple locations of whatever is in their climate database (did not check for missing data). This gives us an idea of amount goals to reach top 20... No guarantee anywhere but I would think 1 or 2 of these would make top 20. May not comment in detail again til late today or this evening, shifting attention to today. Have a good day and fun debating. Am still uneasy about the northward extent of the 00z/14 EPS 1" qpf which is still near the MA Pike.

One event at a time: Today... as per the attached graphics. 1-4" of wet snow ne PA/nw NJ into all of CT. Heaviest probably hills of nw NJ and into ne PA south of I84. It may begin as rain and may end as sprinkles. Intermediate late morning-early afternoon brief periods of 1/2mile moderate snow with accumulation of 1/2"/hr for a couple of hours. Pavements wet except hilly areas above ~ 700 feet. Even NYC could Trace or measure 0.1" this afternoon after 1PM. EC came up quite a bit the past two cycles, the HRRRX went down quite and the SPC HREF stayed steady. Attached the 00z/14 SPC HREF (8 member ensemble) and the 06z 3k NAM 10 to 1 ratio =which may be a bit high on the se edge but it states where I think the potential is best. mPING will be helpful. 35/31 here in Wantage at 505A

Well researched. Thank you... I plan (if it still applies) to reference daily records at CP of 5.3" for the 16th - 1948, and 17th 6.7 in 1932. No promises we'll get either. Gotta rest. Walt