wdrag

try. Working Hands

I was too fast in Hospital ER 430A-930A (family flu) so the snow shower-squall event is reserved more for Tuesday morning. The Wed event right now looks too far north for much down here but I remain committed to monitoring the future of this event. n/c 2/1-2. No thread for me til tomorrow at the earliest, if then.

i84 corridor probably 2 orc3 wintry eventts before Feb3 with variable snowfall. Monday evening 1hr snow showers or a squall dusts some roads 1/4-1”. Sharp cold front with Great Lakes moisture yielding steep relatively moist lapse rates. Wednesday: some sort if snow acc entire corridor. The further north you go best chance 2-5”, probably CT portion but track important. If low goes south of LI it’s going to be nice. Too early for me to know. 2/1-2 at least some snow ice possibly change to rain but looks good for an event monitoring NtC for a Wednesday 1/29 thread but probably 10-30 hours too soon for me to be sure regarding a commitment

Will review at 5P for a possible Wed 29th thread.

Don, This is helpful. We can only hope to expand the sample size with larger snowfalls. BUT, all of us need to be aware that it might be too good for us the rest of the way in CP. Don's numbers suggest 5-10" more as the somewhat probable expectation, barring an unexpected significant snowfall in late January.

I hope for snow but a LaNina winter...bombing away Great Lakes (LES) and we had what I kind of thought was our most favorable situation in the winter... plenty of cold air. Saw CMCE but none of the modeling is showing consensus on a date and temps seems to be warming. I cross my fingers and hope for a big comeback in Feb-early March. It CAN happen. Just a little pessimistic since we've had a colder than normal DEC and much of JAN. I dont know what will happen but odds might not be in our favor? Don might have a lot more to say based on all his stats. Don- any comment these last 8 weeks of winter for CP?

I guess. what do you think? I just checked EC AI for Feb 1-2... something not making a lot of sense... warm thickness and warm 850 temps but freezing surface temps all the way down to LI Sound with 1/2" qpf. That would be interesting snow-ice-rain... a modeled off and on and off again system. Normally(within the sample range) around Feb 5-7 is a pretty good time for the Boston area to get a decent snowfall. I don't like how the PV is modeled to recenter broadly across Canada in early Feb. Suggests mild here. NAEFS 2M also suggest the same relaxing of the cold.

Looking ahead: I have no threads, at least not for a few days. Think we just had the worst week of winter... hopefully snowfall can make a comeback in FEB-March but a little concerned now that we might not see more than 5" the rest of the way at CP. Coastal temps are looking marginal first week of Feb when qpf events become active. This add on I thought interesting this morning .. 5AM temps over snowcover >2".

Thank you ALL very much for all YOUR reports. Posting NWS storm reports south of Toms River, and the CoCoRaHs, plus the KBID observation (ignore their Trace melted-no way trace and again another consideration when looking at METAR reports water equivalent below 30F. Added KJPX (East Hampton LI) It was close and we always knew from the outset headline it was fringe. If any more reports just add em on. Am basically done with this one. I did check the originating ensemble guidance. EPS was worst, CMCE middle but way too much and the GEFS had a total miss and didnt bother to post it. GEFS was best 24 hours in advance (much closer to T0 it recognized what would happen).

KMIV, KWWD, KACY reporting minor S- since ~730PM.

OKX radar showing Long Island lake effect light snow shower fragments translating east along the edge of the virga shield across Li. Take a look. I think the EC had this in some prior cycles for 00z/22.

3 reports of flurries coastal Ocean County NJ at 745PM... no big deal I know, but not for naught. Always was fringe.

Here depends where. se Tip LI to Cape May NJ will see brief snow sometime between 9 and midnight. Iso flurries around MD. Atlanta had a 3/4" in 1 hr ending around 430P. Close... not worth tracking for 99% of our subforum.

Yet again... suggest a flurry DCA-PHilly NY. Its roaring ne. Probably a near mss except coasts should get a short period of action this evening or as Dark Star implied..a whiff. Per mid morning HRRR clipping NJ coast to e Li for 2 hrs around 02z.

Regarding other threads for January... none at this time though am looking at measurable snow in much of the subforum sometime between 06z/27-18z/30 (next week). but too soon for me to thread whatever the significance. Looks somewhat interesting. AND, not to completely discard this Thursday-Friday for the coasts... not impossible to see patchy snow showers on the coasts sometime in there, but not looking quite as impressive (to me) as this marginal fringe snowfall potential ton ight along our coasts.

Tonight continues on the table. Attached the 08z/21 NWS probabilistic 1", 07z/21 BOM, 09z/21 SREF, 06z/21 GEFS (weakest, again most conservative), 00z/21 EPS, 00z/21 CMCE. Am hoping some folks on our subforum along along the coasts will be observing and reporting slight accumulations between 7PM and midnight (roughly), from a 1-4 hour period of snow showers. All models as I sampled vertically at Upton through the FSU MOE website show a chance of snow getting to the ground in that time frame. Lets see if the conservative BOM/GEFS win out with an offshore miss. A couple models show a chance for halfway decent dendritic growth (not just tiny flakes). Again and unknown on all but a wintry flavor.

Hi. Bluewave knows on EC. I let D8 determine planning for this thread and yes Canadian wasn’t good 48 hours out for LI. Not more I can say except well many know Canadian is a warmer model than GFS and EC

HANG IN THERE... EC AI AND NAVGEM STEADY for e tip LI. Probably will miss and presuming the bl wind stays offshore, not happening for snow but the door is open slightly to adjustments for tomorrow night. added at1246P. EC continues T-0.3" amounts along the NJ coast most of LI and now FAR se New England. Its edging N in GA/Carolinas.

I kind of agree... would you agree the CMCE was best guess a week out? Obviously being slightly too far west but having the right idea about w of I95.

Summary: You be the judge of the ensemble performance 8 days ago when this 88 page thread began. Added a bunch of CoCoRaHs data (as reported) to verify...more or less what happened yesterday-last night.

Don et al, while I'm aware this is based on cli reports... not sure what the agencies are verifying (EC in particular). Daily Cli, or 00z-00z or 12z-12z. I couldn't find any documentation on that but it may be that I didnt look closely enough. So the perfection Don posted--- it is. I just didnt want anyone to think BOS 3.8. I do know water equiv at some ASOS's is vastly underdone at non melting below freezing temps. Local offices probably modify the CLI reports via estimates, to try to keep the Climate Data base representative. I cant predict what BOX will do with the Logan ASOS qpf in the late afternoon CLIBOS report but Trace in that 6 hr period ending 12z, highly unlikely.

You all are there. I kind of wish we had a camera on the board area 24x7 to match up to the ASOS there. I know there is UWS observer in our subforum. I cant keep up with all the chat here. I also think the NWS and Feds at the White House could collaborate and get a daily observation going there using Climate accepted sensors and security vetted observation (security personnel?). The 0.4 at National doesn't seem representative of what I see on the White House lawn this morning. Minor point and not going to happen at both locations (CP and DCA) and this is why we regionalize snowfall info to not get to hung up on specifics. That harkens back to the PS/PC debate when we moved over to grids and wording from the grids. I'll add the CoCoRaHs and NOHRSC snowfall analysis shortly for anyone to compare the initial thread ensembles vs reality and also the NWS multi sensor precip which showed 1/2" in the areas that I think got good banding, which also was well defined 24-48 hours in advance by the WPC snowbands extracted from the SPC HREF and confirmed by the FSU banding web site via the GFS.

Don, Think this needs a check if you include after midnight. BOS 5 inches. also I think ASOS WE is messed up at BOS after midnight and possibly the same at NYC but I can live more with NYC. Later, Walt

No further threads for storms. Looking at the 24th since many members at 5H are much sharper and concerning about 5H troughing down into the Virginias but for now, no thread.

No need to cancel this thread... no one is excited by it. However, keeping it going... will be a probable near miss for the coasts. The storm hasn't departed yet. I can live with a miss since it was always projected uncertain. IF it does snow coastal NJ and LI... it sticks. Don't give up yet s shore Li and coastal NJ, especially if pressure adjustments permit a north surface wind and a bit of NNE boundary layer trajectory late tomorrow. Right now, not.