wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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I like this a lot...my experience too. Wonder if folks ar underpaying impacts coming tomorrow morning. Going to be pretty intense I think between 4A-10A. new 06z/5 EC demonstrates with S+ pockets (red on Pivatol).
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Never really sure...we'll see if this really happens.Maybe we'll have a spring flood season if we can get a deep snowpack in the interior... by March 1. Dont' know but guidance offers the option. Pattern via 00z/4 GEFS only, looks favorable into the first week or two f March, even if we lose the ne Canada block since the 5H ridge will probably pop again in AK and modeling still has an active storm track lower Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley into the mid Atlantic states (Nina).
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This is a tease... and might be an inch or more too high but the last 5 cycles of the 00z/GEFS has offer 4+" of melted w.e. to I80 southward (yellow) in the next 23 days... impressive if this occurs. This data extends beyond what I've shown here... it trickles in between 02z-03z the next day. Example: the 00z/4 GEFS extended beyond 16 days wasn't available to me until about 03z/5.
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WPC D7. attached and the early WSSI-P which has low probability of a major winter storm I95 corridor...first time I've ever seen in this short time this experimental product is publicly available this season. If subforum, sentiment changes this afternoon, I can start the thread for 2/10-15 and leave it wide open for what may transpire.
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WPC updated overnight D4 outlook now... probs are very high interior. I95 eastward is still problematic with mix etc.
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Hopefully this is all self explanatory... just use the legends and the notes on the graphics. Thanks.
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No thread but am thinking keeping threads simple and just going for one thread Feb 10-15. I'll wait til Thursday afternoon before starting as guided yesterday.
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Little worried that this could be sleet instead of snow, therefore cutting accums down considerably. Will watch trends next cycles but it does look slippery at sunrise Thu.
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Good sign and RGEM kind of snowy as the RAP.
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As fwiw from my experience: SPC HREF can run a degree or two cold so that ZR might be little too expansive"at times"... but not always. HRRR can run a degree or three to warm, especially beyond 24 hours... RGEM and GGEM: Tends to be a slightly warmer model (note the discourse on the failed RGEM holding r/s line w of NYC for the 1/19 event). The reason I bring this up... if models show pcpn and especially inside 60 hours, the Canadian is showing more snow... it needs to. be considered as a sign that other modeling may be running too warm and rainy. Staying the with RGEM/GGEM...tends to run a little amped... a bit too much qpf but a nice Indicator of drizzle flurries.
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This doesn't often happen in the the I95 corridor... so I think it is a good indicator we have a winter snow or winter mixed storm coming. CPC tends to be conservative. I noticed when they had it for the western part of the I84 corridor earlier this winter there was a winter storm. And, to my knowledge this is the only avenue the NWS-CPC has for broadcasting a possible extensive and/or large event for week two This is not your frequent slight risk of severe in summer where we still have some difficulty discerning extensive coverage vs isolated and also the power of the storms. This I think of more akin to a MDT summer risk, though I never was asked about this before. Hope that helps regarding my perspective=value and public benefit.
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No thread yet but CPC maintains...see below. If and when a thread from myself, will follow morning group input and start 4PM ish Thursday the 6th.
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Headline update: NYC CP-LI... am expecting 1-3" before snow-sleet changes to rain. 702 PM Tue 2/4: headline delayed the start time about 12 hours to midnight Wed night. Bulk of the wintry mix probably occurs in a 6 hour window roughly 4AM-10AM. All of the NYC subforum and surrounding areas near and inland from I95 are covered by a winter wx advisory issued at 330PM Tuesday. Several hours of slippery conditions in snow ice are also expected in NYC and Long Island near dawn-sunrise Thursday before a change to rain. The start time delay was caused by the narrow snow streak in se PA-MD-DE Wednesday morning not advancing northeastward until Wednesday night.
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Can’t post til 630 but the new D5 is up 20%
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RE; Feb 11-13. Enough feedback via comments and no go ahead comments, that I'll wait til 4P Thu. The only tipping point-caveat is if CPC or WPC goes moderate risk for a major event (heavy snow) in any post after 330PM today. That would be blaring a message of concern due to potential extensive cover of 3+, interruptions etc and force us to get on-board. For now, this can and will wait barring any CPC-WPC confident messaging. Thank you all!
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Your call group: I dont see much to excited about Valentines Day onward, at least not yet... so if we didnt have these two events this week, I'd probably have started a thread this morning (Potential Winter Storm Tue 11th-Thu 13th). My question to you: It looms large but as we know lots can wrong... I can go ahead and start a new thread later today when I get home or wait til 4PM Thursday the 6th. Your call--the idea is for the benefit of the forum. IF the response is a general no, then continue in the Feb thread for another two days. Thanks in advance for your feedback... forum benefit.
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NWS Day 5 probs are increasing for advisory-possible warning amounts of snow-ice. Use the legend.
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NWS snow forecast through Thu. Light blue is less than 1", then gradations of blue 1, 2" Looks a little conservative north of I80 but could be right if sleet mixes in within 3 hours of the start.
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Good morning: I know the middle of next week looks impressive but am a little concerned about the track slipping. south. No thread for the 12th-13th yet... trying to main focus on these next two events- Those first two threads intact though I may adjust timing slightly slower arrival-departure on the 5th-6th but no change on that till this evening, if then. There definitely will be a pr ceding narrow snow streak across s PA-n MD-DE-S NJ Wed and not sure if you looked at WSSI-P and NWS ensemble chance of 1/4" glaze... but the major icing impact looks to be central PA mountains to the nw suburbs of DC-Baltimore-Philly, whereas we get a little more snow on the front end up here. Also...note that qpf for the 5th-6th is not all that large when we get north of I80. I'll check back late today... keep these winter events on track.
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Nothing done yet... this is maybe where catch our breath and or do a reality check tomorrow, along with NWS discussions and views on what is or should be coming. It's highly unusual for us to see a train of disturbances light up the storm track in more or less the same general area for 3 weeks. I dont want us to have to punt down the line. Hoping we can get some of this accumulation done by Sunday night.
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so do I hope it holds. In the meantime, you may have noticed a WSA already posted parts of western PA and WVA mountains. My guess trimming the usually overdone ZR amount in the EPS, spotty 1/4" glaze thickness likely in each storm. At least spotty power problems central PA, possibly into the Poconos. Not yet a done deal but glad a watch is already out. Think you'll see more watches post sometime tomorrow and then the associated bordering advisories by 4A Wednesday. I'll be making note of snowfall from 2/5-28 at CP and nw NJ and see if the ensembles were at least half right. Finally...multiple models including the globals starting to pick up on the mesoscale banding feature in PA Wednesday. That one could be a narrow band of 1-3" slippery daylight snowfall vcnty CXY-PHL or CXY-ILG or could it shift a bit north to KTTN? Pretty sure something happens 12 hr in advance of the primary 9 hour pcpn event down in se PA southern NJ.
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The 00z/3 EPS has above normal snowfall here every week in Feb except the projected very cold one 2/18-24. I've never seen this... probably part of why CPC has us outlooked 2/11-15 I hope something doesn't botch this... rather robust above normal snow signal.
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Its isentropic lift (banding) with a decent shot of snow before it weakens when the steering flow changes from wnw aloft to wsw and then the band reforms during Wed night advancing through NJ. MUCH of our NYC qpf will occur within a 6-9 hr window, I think. That could mean a decent 2-3 hour front end thump???? A banding sample attached.
