bluewave

Walt, thanks for the kind words. I have really enjoyed reading your forecast discussions over the years. From your AFDs during the late 90s in Boston to your present work on this forum. Yeah, it really comes down to the pattern as we approach the peak of the hurricane season.

Wettest first 2 weeks of July on record at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Jul 14 Missing Count 1 2020-07-14 6.74 3 2 1984-07-14 5.39 0 3 1967-07-14 5.07 0 4 1950-07-14 4.92 0 5 2014-07-14 4.02 0 6 1996-07-14 4.01 0 7 1987-07-14 3.86 0 8 1972-07-14 3.62 0 9 1989-07-14 3.48 0 10 2005-07-14 3.45 0

Unusually strong high pressure to our north and east so far this summer. Notice how the day 10 Euro underestimated the high pressure forecast to be over SE Canada in 5 days. So we get more onshore flow day 5 than was forecast at day 10. It will be interesting to see if this pattern continues as we approach the peak of the hurricane season later on. Since persistent high pressure to our north and east would allow more East Coast tropical cyclone impacts. New run Old run

Only the 4th time in the last 20 years with no 3 day 90° heatwaves at Newark by July 11th. The unusual part is how much warmer the departures are this June and July compared to the other years. Frequent onshore flow intervals have been limiting the 90°days to only 2 in a row. No 3 day 90° heatwaves at Newark last 20 years by July 11th and June and July temperature departures 2020...Jun...+2.0....Jul...+2.5 2009...Jun....-3.5....Jul....-3.1 2006...Jun....+0.2...Jul...+2.0 2004...Jun....-0.2....Jul....-2.4

The marine layer lifted a bit for some filtered sunshine at times here on the GSB. Now the treetops are covered again in fog.

Fog rolling back in along the South Shore.

Yeah, that 52 mph gust was just to the NE of St George at the Robbins Reef Lighthouse.

JFK close to adding a 2nd 75 degree dew point day for the year so far. Could put them on track for 5 consecutive years with double digit annual numbers. Record number of days since the super El Niño in 2016. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2020&dpi=100&_fmt=js

Updated for the 3.17 in Montclair, NJ with Tropical Storm Fay. 7/11/2020 8:00 AM NJ-ES-31 Montclair 0.7 N 3.17 NA | NA NA | NA NJ Essex

Following Fay moving through the area, the models backed off the heat they had forecast day 6-10. The ridge amplification looks less impressive now. Just enough high pressure holds on east of New England for more S to SSE onshore flow. But the dew points could turn out to be a bigger story with numerous days in the 70s coming up. So clouds and convection may be a player with such high dew points and weak front or low pressure nearby. New run Old run

I believe this is our first July tropical storm since Bertha in 1996.

Yeah, record rainfall for JFK. TODAY 2.25R

Another case of record heat missing to our north this year.

Getting the strongest gusts of the day so far along the South Shore. Plenty of leaves and small twigs on the ground. Jones Beach N/A 73 N/A N/A E29G38

Gusting to 53 mph in SNJ. At 9:08 AM EDT, 2 NNE Strathmere [Cape May Co, NJ] MESONET reports TROPICAL STORM. WEATHERFLOW SENSOR REPORTS 44 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 53 MPH. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#PHI/202007101308/202007101308

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located just east of North Carolina, at 5 pm EDT.

Could be three unusually far north developments for so early in the season.

First 75 degree dew point day from JFK to ISP and you could really feel it. Kennedy Intl CLOUDY 78 75 Wantagh N/A 79 75 MacArthur/ISP CLOUDY 78 75

Updated for June 2020 6....2020...EWR..10..LGA...3...BDR...5.....ISP....5

Updated for the 3.99 at Bridgeport on July 3rd.

It figures that we would start getting storm tracks like this once July came around.

Plenty of high octane fuel in the source region.

High pressure keeps finding a way to build east of New England.

I have seen circular outflow on radars in other parts of the country. But this may be the first that I can recall around this area.