bluewave

So far we have had 4 summers since 2017 with the highest temperature of the year occurring in June or not getting surpassed later in the summer. This is a first for our area over such a short period of time. It makes years like 1953 even more challenging to match with 105° heat in September. Since heat getting established early peaks before we get to August and September. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Jun-Aug Max Temps Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 103 101 96 103 2021 103 97 99 103 2011 102 108 98 108 1994 102 99 95 102 1993 102 105 100 105 1952 102 98 92 102 1943 102 95 97 102 1988 101 101 99 101 1966 101 105 95 105 2024 100 99 100 100 1959 100 93 96 100 1953 100 99 102 102 1934 100 98 90 100 1923 100 99 92 100 2017 99 98 93 99 Monthly Highest Max Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Jun-Aug Max Temps Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 101 100 91 101 2017 101 98 91 101 1952 101 97 90 101 2021 100 96 98 100 2008 100 97 88 100 1988 99 99 97 99 1956 99 94 92 99 1943 99 91 93 99 2012 98 101 93 101 1959 98 91 94 98 2024 97 97 95 97

Sea breeze activity really depends on the pattern. But I agree that the more weather stations we have the better. 2010 was the greatest sea breeze outlier that I ever saw living in Long Beach. Much of the spring into early fall was dominated by westerly flow. So it was the warmest summer on record to this day in Long Beach and other areas especially along the coastal plain. Most of the time anyone south of the LIE and Northern State usually get sea breezes. But this is more enhanced south of the Southern State and Sunrise Highway. So once north of the immediate South Shore the sea breeze has less cooling influence. Though it does have some effect especially by later in the day.

Maybe with the depth of the trough for early next week we can get another opportunity for some much needed rainfall.

My area east of HVN has been at +0.5 for August so far. So a nice step down from the record heat in June and July. The last few days here have been the coolest of the month so far.

Some localized heavier amounts here on the CT Shoreline and refreshing low maxes after all the heat and dry conditions this summer. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: CT-FR-25 Station Name: Norwalk 2.9 NNW Data Explorer Observation Date 8/21/2025 7:00 AM Submitted 8/21/2025 6:38 AM Gauge Catch 1.75 in. Notes FallLike Day. 60s breezy. FINALLY RAIN!!! Started as mist late morning. Moderate in afternoon. Heavy at 11pm. Rained overnight. Misting at OBS Data for August 20, 2025 through August 20, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 1.58 NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 0.73 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 221 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025 ...RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 20 AT BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AIRPORT. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 70 DEGREES, SET IN 1990. RECORDS FOR THE BRIDGEPORT CT AREA GO BACK TO 1948. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

Another reason that the high temperatures in desert cities can be similar or cooler to the outlying areas is due to something called the urban cooling island. It’s another reason greening urban desert cities is so important. Since it can lead to a 2C cooling inversion during the day. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL066534 During the day, downtown areas appear to be cooler than the suburbs in six cities out of eight: Abu Dhabi, Kuwait City, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Biskra, and Bikaner, with values ranging from the −5.33°C in Abu Dhabi to the −0.06°C in Las Vegas during the summer. This effect can be partially explained considering that bare soils (prevalent in the suburbs) absorb more sunlight than urban surfaces due to their low reflectivity, hence leading to the relatively higher temperature of suburban areas [Georgescu et al., 2011]. This thermal gradient between the city center and suburbs can become even more pronounced when irrigated vegetation is present in the urban sites, resulting in heat advection, subsidence, and strong latent heat fluxes over the city. Also, the gradient can be modulated through the local wind regime and larger-scale atmospheric circulation alike, resulting in additional surface temperature variability across the diverse cities [Oke, 1987]. SUHI values referred to urban + vegetation sites are, in general, lower than the ones for the downtown sites, resulting in a further reduction of the temperature from few tenths of degrees to the −2.36°C in Phoenix at day in summer. It is, in fact, during the summer that the difference between urban and suburbs testing sites becomes wider: this phenomenon may be connected with intensive urban irrigation, eventually resulting in a sharp decoupling between vegetation and precipitation and to a lowering of the effects of heat stress on plants [Jenerette et al., 2013]. An exception is here represented by Bikaner, where from June to August, the southwestern monsoon carries sporadic spells of intense precipitation, which lower more easily the temperatures in bare and “permeable” suburban substrates than in “impervious” man-made surfaces [Kharol et al., 2013]. In agreement with previous results [Lazzarini et al., 2013; Lazzarini and Ghedira, 2014], Abu Dhabi displays the sharpest UCI effect, probably associated with the fact that it is located on an island [Frey et al., 2006; Wulfmeyer et al., 2014] and that the strong sea breeze regime triggered by monsoonal winds during the summer can induce a significant reduction of the atmospheric boundary layer depth, with a consequent mitigation of sensible heat fluxes along the coast [Eager et al., 2008]. In contrast, Riyadh and Doha do not show any inversion effect in the UHI, although the summer SUHIs have lower values than the winter ones on average. Again, this is consistent with previous results [Gamo, 1996; Alghamdi and Moore, 2014; Hashem and Balakrishnan, 2014; Sasidharan et al., 2009] and could be a consequence of the scarce vegetation coverage in these two cities (landscaping activities are limited) and urban design [Alghamdi and Moore, 2014]. During the night, however, the classical UHI phenomenon is restored: bare soil surfaces cool down faster than man-made and vegetated surfaces, resulting in strong positive SUHI values across all the cities of the ensemble. Therefore, HDCs are not immune from the UHI effect but rather oscillate between a diurnal UCI effect and a classic UHI at night. Since only two cities (Abu Dhabi and Kuwait City) out of the six displaying this diurnal UCI/nocturnal UHI alternation are close to a water body, breezes do not seem to have a dominant role in determining these common patterns, albeit additional local forcing on fluxes could arise from mild slopes and anabatic/katabatic flows [Yoshino, 1984; Rendón et al., 2014; Chemel et al., 2008; Sun et al., 2009; Brazel et al., 2010]. Nonetheless, proximity to the sea remains an important factor in reducing temperature ranges (see, e.g., the case of Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Kuwait City). In contrast, vegetation abundance and typology could be among the main causes of UCI. Transpiration patterns, in fact, largely depend on photosynthetic pathways: in C3 and C4 plants, for example, transpiration predominantly takes place during the day [see Caird et al., 2007, and references therein], while in Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants carbon uptake mainly occurs at night, under condition less conductive to water loss via transpiration [Bartlett, 2014]. Day/night ranges in the downtown sites appear smaller than the ones in the suburbs, while the ranges at the different sites tend to be amplified during the summer, with the exception of Bikaner, where again the precipitation events associated to the Indian summer monsoon could play an important role in modulating suburban LSTs. These features can be explained considering the lower heat capacity of suburban bare soils, allowing for quick variations of temperature. Owed to the decoupling with precipitation, the seasonal variability of NDVI within urban areas is extremely weak. However, during the summer, the elevated temperatures characterizing the HDCs can still trigger intense water stress in urban vegetation [Julien et al., 2011], leading to a summer reduction of the vegetation coverage in general, in contrast with what is generally observed in temperate regions. Following Zhou et al. [2013], Figure 2 shows the SUHI seasonal cycle evolution for day (Figure 2a) and night (Figure 2b). SUHI is calculated both as the difference in LST between urban + vegetation and the suburbs sites (green lines and symbols) and between downtown and the suburbs (in red). Observations are marked with light dots (grey for SUHI(Dt) and green for SUHI(U + V)), while monthly average values are indicated by black triangles (SUHI(U + V)) and filled circles (SUHI(Dt)), and the corresponding standard deviation of LST and SUHI is represented in the form of horizontal and vertical error bars. Thick continuous lines represent the SUHI(U + V) and SUHI(Dt) seasonal cycle after band-pass filtering of fine temporal scales up to 1 week with a Morlet wavelet of central frequency ω0=6 [Mallat, 2008]. The SUHI seasonal dynamics still displays clear diurnal UCI signature, and urban + vegetation sites show the highest potential for cooling in HDCs. However, the seasonal evolution of the SUHI strongly varies from city to city, pinpointing how not a single factor but rather the interplay between urban form, vegetation abundance, and local to regional climatic forcing are ultimately driving the thermal regimes of these cities. Also, the role of vegetation is not always univocal: in Biskra during the day, and in Phoenix at night, urban + vegetation sites appear to be warmer than their downtown counterparts. In both cases, the urban + vegetation test sites are located on a mild slope, facing north in the case of Biskra and southwest in the case of Phoenix. The topographic slope and the exposition to sunlight during the day could play a more prominent role than the sole vegetation coverage in these two cases. In Phoenix, for example, the urban + vegetation test site could be affected at night by a thermal belt effect [Yoshino, 1984], otherwise absent in the downtown site at the bottom of the valley, more likely subject to katabatic flows. It is also clear that in the presence of extended urban vegetated areas, plants phenology, irrigation systems, and specific microclimatic conditions can all contribute to the evolution of the SUHI. We performed a comparative analysis of the SUHI effect of cities located in hot desert environments (HDCs) using satellite data processing techniques. The main aim was to identify common patterns in the thermal regime of HDCs, testing at the same time the occurrence of the UCI effect observed in single studies dedicated to arid land cities. During the day, an average SUHI inversion of around 2°C was confirmed in six cities from a pool of eight. This inversion has been often associated with the abundance of irrigated vegetation in HDCs, which creates large areas where surface temperatures are mitigated through evaporative cooling. Despite that, the night LST analysis showed the standard UHI effect in all the cities. During the year, the variation of LST mainly showed a biseasonal mode, with a more evident inversion of SUHI during summer months. A comparative analysis of how the percentage of NDVI/ISA relates to LSTs also highlighted how medium dense urban sites with dedicated green areas are the ones showing the highest SUHI inversion probably due to the combined effect of shadowing and plant transpiration. However, all the cities displayed peculiar characteristics, pointing out how specific microclimatic and aridity conditions need to be taken into account in the SUHI assessment. Surface energy balance can be retrieved, and further variables (i.e., surface roughness and wind data) can be added to the picture, in order to better understand the microclimate of cities located in hyperarid regions. Seasonality of vegetation is expected to have a marginal role in HDCs due to the decoupling of vegetation from precipitation through irrigation [Jenerette et al., 2013]. In contrast, the typology of vegetation (C3, C4, or CAM) used in the landscaping could play a crucial role in mitigating (or reversing) UHI effects in desert cities. Also, the role of different irrigation strategies, as well as the link with desalination and its potential long-term impacts, needs to be addressed.

The summer JJA UHI effect in the Arizona South Central climate division is really pronounced for low temperatures at the Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. But the high temperatures there are fairly similar to the surrounding stations. The data below tracks the warmest Phoenix summers during the 1980s, 2000s, and 2020s. Unfortunately, several stations have left the network and new ones have joined. So several outlying stations don’t have a continuous record since 1981. This makes it difficult for a precise measurement of the UHI change since 1981. The one common denominator has been a steady rise in both the low and high temperatures for Arizona stations with a long enough period of record for comparison. AVG Max Temp Data for June 1, 2024 through August 31, 2024 Warmest Summer On Record Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PHOENIX AIRPORT WBAN 110.4 BUCKEYE 5N COOP 110.2 YOUNGTOWN COOP 110.0 GILA BEND 2SE COOP 109.9 ROBSON RANCH COOP 109.8 TEMPE ASU COOP 109.4 EAST MESA COOP 108.9 BARTLETT DAM COOP 108.6 CASA GRANDE COOP 108.3 CASA GRANDE NATL MONUMENT COOP 108.0 APACHE JUNCTION 5 NE COOP 107.6 MORMON FLAT COOP 107.0 MESA FALCON FIELD WBAN 106.8 SCOTTSDALE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 106.8 CASA GRANDE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 106.5 PHOENIX DEER VALLEY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 106.4 STEWART MOUNTAIN DAM COOP 106.1 FOUNTAIN HILLS COOP 106.0 PICACHO 8 SE COOP 105.8 CAREFREE COOP 105.6 BOYCE THOMPSON ARBORETUM COOP 104.0 PINNACLE PEAK COOP 102.0 AVG Min Temp Data for June 1, 2024 through August 31, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PHOENIX AIRPORT WBAN 87.5 MESA FALCON FIELD WBAN 84.3 SCOTTSDALE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 84.1 YOUNGTOWN COOP 83.3 PHOENIX DEER VALLEY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 82.0 MORMON FLAT COOP 81.6 GILA BEND 2SE COOP 81.5 EAST MESA COOP 81.4 BUCKEYE 5N COOP 81.3 FOUNTAIN HILLS COOP 80.2 CASA GRANDE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 79.7 APACHE JUNCTION 5 NE COOP 78.9 PICACHO 8 SE COOP 78.9 CASA GRANDE COOP 78.7 PINNACLE PEAK COOP 78.5 CAREFREE COOP 77.7 TEMPE ASU COOP 77.6 BOYCE THOMPSON ARBORETUM COOP 77.6 CASA GRANDE NATL MONUMENT COOP 76.8 ROBSON RANCH COOP 76.2 AVG Max Temp Data for June 1, 2007 through August 31, 2007 Warmest Summer 2000s Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. GILA BEND 2SE COOP 108.2 LAVEEN 3 SSE COOP 108.1 MARICOPA 4 N COOP 107.5 TONOPAH COOP 107.2 BARTLETT DAM COOP 107.0 PAINTED ROCK DAM COOP 106.7 CASA GRANDE COOP 106.3 PHOENIX AIRPORT WBAN 106.3 EAST MESA COOP 106.0 YOUNGTOWN COOP 105.5 TEMPE ASU COOP 105.2 ARIZONA CITY COOP 105.2 SACATON COOP 104.9 CASA GRANDE NATL MONUMENT COOP 104.7 STEWART MOUNTAIN DAM COOP 104.7 LITCHFIELD PARK COOP 104.4 PICACHO 8 SE COOP 104.1 FLORENCE COOP 104.0 APACHE JUNCTION 5 NE COOP 104.0 MORMON FLAT COOP 103.8 FOUNTAIN HILLS COOP 103.6 PHOENIX DEER VALLEY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 103.6 SCOTTSDALE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 103.5 CAREFREE COOP 102.9 WICKENBURG COOP 102.6 AGUILA COOP 102.3 WITTMANN 1SE COOP 102.0 AVG Min Temp Data for June 1, 2007 through August 31, 2007 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PHOENIX AIRPORT WBAN 83.6 SCOTTSDALE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 81.0 MORMON FLAT COOP 80.5 PHOENIX DEER VALLEY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 80.0 YOUNGTOWN COOP 79.5 LITCHFIELD PARK COOP 79.3 GILA BEND 2SE COOP 78.7 PAINTED ROCK DAM COOP 77.9 FOUNTAIN HILLS COOP 77.8 EAST MESA COOP 77.0 PICACHO 8 SE COOP 76.7 PINNACLE PEAK COOP 76.4 MARICOPA 4 N COOP 76.0 CAREFREE COOP 76.0 FLORENCE COOP 75.9 TONOPAH COOP 75.6 STEWART MOUNTAIN DAM COOP 75.5 APACHE JUNCTION 5 NE COOP 75.1 TEMPE ASU COOP 75.1 CASA GRANDE NATL MONUMENT COOP 75.0 CASA GRANDE COOP 74.9 WITTMANN 1SE COOP 74.9 ARIZONA CITY COOP 74.3 SACATON COOP 74.2 BARTLETT DAM COOP 74.2 HORSE CAMP CANYON ARIZONA RAWS 71.1 WICKENBURG COOP 70.7 AVG Max Temp Data for June 1, 1981 through August 31, 1981 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. GILA BEND 2SE COOP 110.3 BUCKEYE COOP 109.9 LITCHFIELD PARK COOP 108.6 CASA GRANDE COOP 108.0 CASA GRANDE NATL MONUMENT COOP 107.9 SACATON COOP 107.6 TONOPAH COOP 107.2 PHOENIX CITY WBAN 106.9 MARICOPA 4 N COOP 106.9 FOUNTAIN HILLS COOP 106.8 YOUNGTOWN COOP 106.7 FLORENCE COOP 106.5 PHOENIX AIRPORT WBAN 106.1 MESA COOP 105.8 TEMPE COOP 105.7 CHANDLER HEIGHTS COOP 105.3 SCOTTSDALE COOP 105.1 BARTLETT DAM COOP 104.7 DEER VALLEY COOP 104.5 STEWART MOUNTAIN DAM COOP 103.8 ELOY 4 NE COOP 103.8 LAVEEN 3 SSE COOP 103.7 MORMON FLAT COOP 103.3 WICKENBURG COOP 103.2 SOUTH PHOENIX COOP 102.4 AGUILA COOP 101.6 AVG Min Temp Data for June 1, 1981 through August 31, 1981 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PHOENIX AIRPORT WBAN 83.4 PHOENIX CITY WBAN 81.9 GILA BEND 2SE COOP 78.9 PHOENIX SOUTH MOUNTAIN COOP 78.9 LAVEEN 3 SSE COOP 78.1 FOUNTAIN HILLS COOP 77.5 YOUNGTOWN COOP 77.5 TONOPAH COOP 77.2 DEER VALLEY COOP 77.1 LITCHFIELD PARK COOP 76.9 MORMON FLAT COOP 76.6 STEWART MOUNTAIN DAM COOP 76.2 BARTLETT DAM COOP 75.8 MESA COOP 75.5 SUPERIOR COOP 75.1 MARICOPA 4 N COOP 75.0 BUCKEYE COOP 74.8 FLORENCE COOP 74.7 CHANDLER HEIGHTS COOP 74.6 TEMPE COOP 74.5 CASA GRANDE NATL MONUMENT COOP 74.3 ELOY 4 NE COOP 74.2 CASA GRANDE COOP 73.2 SOUTH PHOENIX COOP 73.1 AGUILA COOP 71.1 SCOTTSDALE COOP 70.3

Already a 7 foot swell before the 15+foot swell arrives tomorrow.

UHI acts as an amplifier of mostly the low temperatures in and around Phoenix leading to the rapid increase in 80° minimums there. But the rapid increase in 100°+ maxes is evenly distributed across, urban, suburban, and rural locations. It’s the rapid warming of the planet which is driving the increasing intensity of the heat. So the UHI acts to keep the urban centers warmer at night than the outlying areas. But both areas as seeing steep increases in the minimum and maximum temperatures. So without the background warming of the climate, the UHI alone wouldn’t be nearly as significant.

The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet helped to suppress the weaker Southern Stream during the split flow intervals last winter. So it prevented those storms from coming further north. This has been the same theme since 2018-2019 with Great Lakes cutters, I-78 to I-84 huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks.

The 2020s has produced unprecedented summer warmth for both locations. Flagstaff and Phoenix both had their warmest summers on record in 2024 by a significant margin. All the 2020s summers have been in the top 10 for warmth which has never happened before. Time Series Summary for Flagstaff Area, AZ (ThreadEx) 10 Warmest Summers dense rank sorting by temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 68.4 0 2 1981 66.6 0 3 2002 66.3 0 4 2025 66.2 13 5 2021 66.1 0 6 2020 65.8 0 - 2007 65.8 0 - 1974 65.8 0 - 1940 65.8 0 7 2018 65.6 0 8 2022 65.4 0 - 2008 65.4 0 - 1980 65.4 0 9 2012 65.3 0 - 1946 65.3 0 10 2023 65.2 0 - 2017 65.2 0 - 1996 65.2 0 - 1977 65.2 0 Time Series Summary for Phoenix Area, AZ (ThreadEx)10 Warmest Summers dense rank sorting by temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 98.9 0 2 2023 97.0 0 3 2025 96.7 13 - 2020 96.7 0 4 2015 95.1 0 - 2013 95.1 0 5 2019 94.9 0 - 2007 94.9 0 6 2011 94.8 0 - 2002 94.8 0 - 1981 94.8 0 7 2022 94.7 0 8 2017 94.6 0 - 2016 94.6 0 - 2003 94.6 0 9 2006 94.5 0 10 1989 94.4 0 - 1988 94.4 0

If you look at the JJA 20 year trend from 1995 to 2024, then the high/low trend is nearly identical for both stations. The minimums are rising at a faster pace for both locations. Obviously, Phoenix gets the most attention since the actual temperatures are significantly higher. But the temperature increase at both locations has been the same even at significantly different altitudes. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/city/time-series/USW00003103/tmin/3/8/1995-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1995&endtrendyear=2025&filter=true&filterType=binomial 1995-2024 temperature trend Phoenix……max…+0.8°F/Decade….min…+1.0°F/Decade Flagstaff…..max…+0.7°F/Decade…min…..+.1.1°F/Decade

Yeah, nice to see the Euro start showing a PRE since we really need it. But the placement of these features can be very fickle like IVTs in the winter. We can remember back in 2021 showing the PRE in SNJ and it would up in NYC. But at least there is now the potential for someone around the area to get some much needed rainfall even if later runs switch the location near the jet entrance region.

The four major climate sites in Arizona on NOAA NCEI have all experienced a steep increase in summer temperatures since 1971. But the rate of increase at Phoenix for daily minimum temperatures is faster than the other sites.The increase in maximum temperatures across the four major climate sites has been fairly uniform. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/city/time-series/USW00003103/tmin/3/8/1971-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1971&endtrendyear=2025&filter=true&filterType=binomial 1971-2025 Arizona increase in JJA temperatures Phoenix….min…+1.0°F/ Decade….max….+0.8°F/Decade Flagstaff…min….+0.9°F/Decade…max…..+0.5°F/Decade Tucson…..min….+0.6°F/Decade…max…..+0.8°F/Decade Yuma……..min….+0.7°F/Decade…max…..+0.8°F/Decade

Maybe the EPS shifting to a deeper trough and stronger cold front passage next Monday could actually give us some organized rainfall rather than the spotty convection of late leading to the developing dry pattern. New run Old run

Some records from 1993 have been very difficult to beat. It still remains the only year where the warm spots had 100° heat from June through September. Was the only year with 9 days getting to 100°. But the 2020s are getting close to surpassing the 1990s for total 100° days with 4 years to go. The 2020s only need 3 more 100° days to set the new record. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ June Through September Maximum Temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 103 101 96 M 103 2021 103 97 99 91 103 2011 102 108 98 88 108 1994 102 99 95 92 102 1993 102 105 100 100 105 1952 102 98 92 94 102 1943 102 95 97 93 102 1988 101 101 99 86 101 1966 101 105 95 91 105 2024 100 99 100 87 100 1959 100 93 96 93 100 1953 100 99 102 105 105 1934 100 98 90 85 100 1923 100 99 92 90 100 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 100° Days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993 9 0 2 1949 8 0 3 2025 7 136 4 2022 6 0 - 1953 6 0 6 1988 5 0 - 1966 5 0 100° days 1990s….19 days 2020s…17 days 1940s….16 days 1950s….15 days 2010s….13 days 2000s…11 days 1980s….9 days 1960s….6 days 1970s….3 days

While the sample size is pretty small, there has been an increase in NYC La Niña snowfall following Atlantic hurricane seasons with 160+ ACE since 1995. There was also an increase in December +PNAs. Unfortunately, the relationship didn’t work last winter due to the overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. Last season was the first with only 12.9” of snowfall in NYC with a strong December +PNA and a La Niña. My guess is that the high ACE was part of a similar pattern which used to produce both December +PNAs and snowy outcomes during La Nina’s. So while we got the strong December +PNA last season, the snowfall didn’t follow due to the warm storm track through the Great Lakes. So several elements in the same pattern but we can’t say that the ACE is directly the cause. Just that these elements appear together from time to time. It could be they are related to another underlying variable that we haven’t identified yet. 2005….ACE…..245….DEC PNA….+1.38….NYC snowfall….40.0” 1995….ACE……227….DEC PNA…..+0.92..NYC snowfall ….75.6” 2017….ACE……224….DEC PNA…..+0.89…NYC snowfall….40.9” 1998…ACE……181……DEC PNA…..-0.09….NYC snowfall…..12.7” 2020..ACE……180…..DEC PNA…..+1.58….NYC snowfall….38.6” 1999…ACE……176…..DEC PNA……+0.21….NYC snowfall…..16.3” 2010…ACE…..165……DEC PNA…….-1.78….NYC snowfall…..61.9” 2024…ACE….161……DEC PNA…….+1.70….NYC snowfall…..12.9”

We can look at the SST data for the WPAC over the last 10 years and see that this has been a top down rather than bottom up warming process. The subsurface charts show warming starting at the surface around 10 years ago and gradually working down. It also matches the increase in high pressure and drop in clouds. This is consistent with the warming we have seen in other oceans like the Atlantic following light winds, more sunshine, higher pressure, and fewer clouds.

Looks like we get a break for a while on the mid 90s after today. This week should be very close to seasonable for the temperarures. But unfortunately it still looks drier than normal. August 18-25 forecast

It’s been a while since we had a 10”+foot hurricane swell in August.

Very impressive all or nothing rainfall pattern this summer from 2-14 inches. A few localized well above average readings. While many areas are only near normal to record dry over the period. The added heat really dried things out more than would be the case with a much cooler summer. So even areas that are near average are showing drier vegetation and soil moisture. Data for June 1, 2025 through August 16, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 14.40 NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 14.29 NJ WESTFIELD 0.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 12.70 NJ WESTFIELD 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 12.24 CT HERITAGE VILLAGE 0.2 E CoCoRaHS 11.93 CT SOUTHBURY 2.3 W CoCoRaHS 11.75 NJ SPRINGFIELD TWP 0.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 11.65 NJ CLARK TWP 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 11.51 NJ CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.50 NY SEAFORD 0.4 SE CoCoRaHS 11.32 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 11.25 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 NNW CoCoRaHS 11.19 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 11.17 NJ LINDEN 2.2 NW CoCoRaHS 10.43 NY PEEKSKILL 2.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.33 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.32 NY SPRING VALLEY 1.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.32 NY NEW WINDSOR 3.3 W CoCoRaHS 10.14 NJ MAHWAH TWP 2.5 NE CoCoRaHS 10.13 NJ MAPLEWOOD TWP 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 10.09 NY ARMONK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 10.01 NY THORNWOOD 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 9.99 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.81 NY WARWICK 3.9 W CoCoRaHS 9.62 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 9.47 NY NELSONVILLE 0.3 S CoCoRaHS 9.31 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 9.20 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 9.05 NJ HARRISON COOP 8.95 NY CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 8.75 NJ LIVINGSTON TWP 2.0 NNE CoCoRaHS 8.69 NY PORT JERVIS 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 8.64 NJ MONTVALE 1.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 8.63 NY SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 8.59 CT WATERBURY 1.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 8.51 CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 8.47 CT BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 8.42 CT STAMFORD 1.0 S CoCoRaHS 8.37 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 8.36 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 8.22 NY GREENWOOD LAKE 3.0 SW CoCoRaHS 8.18 NY SAYVILLE CoCoRaHS 8.08 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 8.07 NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 8.05 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 8.03 NY BRIARCLIFF MANOR 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 7.88 CT DANBURY COOP 7.82 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 7.74 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 7.74 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 7.71 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 7.71 NY PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 7.68 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 7.67 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 7.67 NY GARRISON 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 7.66 NY BLUE POINT 0.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 7.60 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 7.59 NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 7.59 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 7.58 NJ PALISADES PARK 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 7.56 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 7.54 CT DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 7.50 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 7.45 NY STATEN ISLAND 2.6 N CoCoRaHS 7.44 NY ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 7.43 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 7.40 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN 7.40 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 7.37 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 7.37 NJ JERSEY CITY 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 7.35 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 7.34 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 7.34 NY LINDENHURST 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 7.33 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 7.26 CT RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 7.22 CT BETHEL 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 7.21 NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 7.17 NJ VERONA TWP 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 7.10 NY AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 7.10 NY AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.99 NY MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 6.96 CT NEW CANAAN 3.8 N CoCoRaHS 6.93 CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.91 NY COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 6.89 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 6.85 NY BELLMORE 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 6.83 NY LARCHMONT 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.81 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 6.80 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 6.79 NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 6.77 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 6.73 NY SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 6.72 NY SHIRLEY 2.9 N CoCoRaHS 6.68 NY RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 6.65 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 6.60 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 6.59 NJ WOOD-RIDGE 0.2 N CoCoRaHS 6.58 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 6.57 NJ WAYNE TWP 4.2 NNW CoCoRaHS 6.56 NY SELDEN 1.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 6.52 NY NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 6.50 NJ WAYNE TWP 0.8 SSW CoCoRaHS 6.48 NJ OAKLAND 1.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 6.43 NY ST. JAMES COOP 6.41 NY CENTERPORT 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 6.41 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 6.40 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 6.39 NY RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 6.39 NY DEER PARK 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 6.30 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 6.29 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 6.29 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 6.28 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 6.27 CT PROSPECT 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 6.27 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 6.25 NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 6.25 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 6.19 CT COLCHESTER 5.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.13 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 6.10 NY MANORVILLE 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 6.08 NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 6.02 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.99 NY CENTERPORT COOP 5.90 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.90 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.89 CT NORWICH 5.4 SE CoCoRaHS 5.89 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.89 NY BROOKLYN 2.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 5.88 CT MADISON CENTER 1.3 N CoCoRaHS 5.83 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 5.81 NJ WAYNE TWP 2.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.80 NY NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 5.80 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 5.80 NY CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 5.76 CT MERIDEN 2.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 5.76 NJ LYNDHURST TWP 1.6 NW CoCoRaHS 5.75 NY SYOSSET COOP 5.75 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 5.73 NY STATEN ISLAND 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.72 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 5.72 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 5.72 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.72 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 5.70 NY REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 5.69 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 5.67 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 5.66 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 5.61 CT TRUMBULL 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 5.59 CT NEWTOWN 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 5.57 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.54 CT CROMWELL 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.51 NJ MAYWOOD 0.2 SW CoCoRaHS 5.49 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 5.47 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 5.46 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 5.46 NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 5.43 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.41 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.39 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 5.36 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.35 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.32 NY AMITYVILLE 0.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 5.29 NY RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.19 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 5.13 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.12 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.00 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 4.99 NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 4.97 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 4.96 NJ RIVER EDGE 0.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.93 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 4.93 NY LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E CoCoRaHS 4.90 CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 4.90 CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 4.89 CT GUILFORD COOP 4.88 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 4.70 NJ FAIR LAWN 0.9 E CoCoRaHS 4.61 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 4.61 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 4.59 NY ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.58 CT DURHAM 1.2 W CoCoRaHS 4.58 NJ CRANFORD TWP 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 4.56 NY STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 4.51 NJ FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE CoCoRaHS 4.50 CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 4.46 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 4.42 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 4.36 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.1 N CoCoRaHS 4.35 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 4.23 CT OLD LYME 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.23 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 4.18 CT MOODUS 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 4.18 CT WATERFORD 1.1 E CoCoRaHS 4.14 CT OLD LYME 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 4.03 NY HICKSVILLE 1.4 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.93 CT NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.78 NY FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 3.78 CT MYSTIC 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 3.70 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 3.67 CT STONINGTON 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.66 CT PAWCATUCK 0.8 SE CoCoRaHS 3.65 CT MYSTIC 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 3.51 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 3.50 CT GROTON 2.9 E CoCoRaHS 3.49 CT PAWCATUCK 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.45 CT CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.44 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 3.42 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 3.37 CT STONINGTON 1.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.33 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 3.30 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 3.24 NY COMMACK 1.3 SW CoCoRaHS 3.19 CT WATERFORD 2.3 S CoCoRaHS 3.19 NY SAYVILLE 0.0 N CoCoRaHS 3.17 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 3.14 NY SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.95 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.90 NJ RIVER VALE TWP 1.5 S CoCoRaHS 2.84 CT ANSONIA 1 NW COOP 2.75 NY BAYPORT 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.40 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 2.34

Yeah, pretty sure the warm spots away from the water in Queens would have recorded over 50 days reaching 90° back in 2010 since Mineola did. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 59 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 54 NY MINEOLA COOP 52 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 51 NJ HARRISON COOP 50 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 48 NJ CRANFORD COOP 46 NY BRONX COOP 45 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 41 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 40 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 37 CT DANBURY COOP 37 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 35 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 34 NY WEST POINT COOP 33 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 32 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 31 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 27 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 26 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 25 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 24 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 24 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 22 CT ANSONIA 1 NW COOP 22 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 95° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 21 NY MINEOLA COOP 20 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 18 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 18 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 17 NJ HARRISON COOP 16 NJ CRANFORD COOP 14 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 12 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 12 NY BRONX COOP 11 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 11 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10 CT DANBURY COOP 10 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 100° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MINEOLA COOP 6 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 4 NJ HARRISON COOP 4 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 4 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 3 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 3 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3 CT DANBURY COOP 3

These weather forums have always existed in order to provide context to the current weather being experienced and the forecasts based on these current initialized conditions. Don and Uncle started adding background on the other forum. Reading their excellent posts was one of the reasons that I joined. While it’s nice having everyone list their current conditions, adding context to how it fits in to what is usual or unusual has always been a tradition. This is the main reason that weather records exist in the first place. But these frequent climate shifts since the late 1970s to warmer have been changing the baseline. So we are no longer in the stable and cooler climate prior to the 1980s. Understanding this is essential since it sets the new parameters of what types of events are possible for each warmer climate background state. We can’t accurately make forecasts based on these older assumptions which applied to the cooler climate eras. Plus the warming introduces new biases into the model forecasts which we need to discuss for accurate forecasts. If for some reason things were different and we were slipping into a new ice age, I doubt that the posters such as yourself would complain that too much attention was being given to how much colder our climate is becoming. So my guess is that you would be fine with discussing that in these threads and not want to move the discussion into a separate coming ice age and global cooling thread.