bluewave

The Euro has 75°+ dew points from Saturday through next Thursday. Some spots around the region may see their first 80° dew point of the season. JFK could be on its way to 5 consecutive years with double digit 75°+ dew point days. So a continuation of the high dew point surge which began with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2020&dpi=100&_fmt=js

Yeah, the bay breeze has been showing up quite a bit since 2016 at the airport. It wasn’t much of a factor from 2010 to 2013 when Newark had the deep westerly flow and all those 100+ days. The subtropical high has been just a little too far north and east in recent years.

Newark has had more SSE flow off the bay since the higher dew point surge began in 2016. But the Harrison station was just far enough from the bay to reach 100 several times. Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2020 97 17 2019 101 0 2018 101 0 2017 98 0 2016 97 0 2015 98 0 2014 95 0 2013 102 0 2012 103 2 2011 107 1 2010 106 1

Looks like Sunday may be the next chance to go 95°+ in the usual warm spots. Euro has the sea breeze front with SSE winds near or just east of I-95. Could be some high dew point pooling near and east of the sea breeze front.

80°Julys have become more common since 2010. This July LGA is above and EWR is close. 80° used to be the average July temperature around the Washington DC area. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 82.8 0 2 1999 81.9 0 3 2020 81.5 18 - 2019 81.5 0 4 2013 81.2 0 5 2016 81.1 0 6 1955 80.9 0 7 1966 80.8 0 8 2006 80.7 0 9 1994 80.6 0 10 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 - 1952 80.4 0 11 2008 80.0 0 - 1993 80.0 0 12 2018 79.8 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 6 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 7 2019 80.6 0 8 1955 80.5 0 9 1988 80.4 0 10 2002 80.0 0 11 2016 79.9 0 12 2020 79.6 18 - 1983 79.6 0 - 1966 79.6 0

Impressive first half of summer warmth to our north.

We need some new photos. http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html June 2009 June 2013

So far the high temperature of the month at NYC and LGA is 96° and 95° at EWR. Latest model runs indicate that our next chance to go 95°+ is around the 20th. We’ll see if the models hold this day 6-10 forecast or back off again. The period around July 20th has been our warmest part of the month for 7 out of the last10 years. Highest July temperature and date at EWR or LGA since 2010 7-21-19........100 7-1-18...........98 7-20-17.........98 7-23/25-16...99 7-19-15.........98 7-2-14...........96 7-18-13........101 7-18-12........104 7-22-11........108 7-6-10..........103

Walt, thanks for the kind words. I have really enjoyed reading your forecast discussions over the years. From your AFDs during the late 90s in Boston to your present work on this forum. Yeah, it really comes down to the pattern as we approach the peak of the hurricane season.

Wettest first 2 weeks of July on record at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Jul 14 Missing Count 1 2020-07-14 6.74 3 2 1984-07-14 5.39 0 3 1967-07-14 5.07 0 4 1950-07-14 4.92 0 5 2014-07-14 4.02 0 6 1996-07-14 4.01 0 7 1987-07-14 3.86 0 8 1972-07-14 3.62 0 9 1989-07-14 3.48 0 10 2005-07-14 3.45 0

Unusually strong high pressure to our north and east so far this summer. Notice how the day 10 Euro underestimated the high pressure forecast to be over SE Canada in 5 days. So we get more onshore flow day 5 than was forecast at day 10. It will be interesting to see if this pattern continues as we approach the peak of the hurricane season later on. Since persistent high pressure to our north and east would allow more East Coast tropical cyclone impacts. New run Old run

Only the 4th time in the last 20 years with no 3 day 90° heatwaves at Newark by July 11th. The unusual part is how much warmer the departures are this June and July compared to the other years. Frequent onshore flow intervals have been limiting the 90°days to only 2 in a row. No 3 day 90° heatwaves at Newark last 20 years by July 11th and June and July temperature departures 2020...Jun...+2.0....Jul...+2.5 2009...Jun....-3.5....Jul....-3.1 2006...Jun....+0.2...Jul...+2.0 2004...Jun....-0.2....Jul....-2.4

The marine layer lifted a bit for some filtered sunshine at times here on the GSB. Now the treetops are covered again in fog.

Fog rolling back in along the South Shore.

Yeah, that 52 mph gust was just to the NE of St George at the Robbins Reef Lighthouse.

JFK close to adding a 2nd 75 degree dew point day for the year so far. Could put them on track for 5 consecutive years with double digit annual numbers. Record number of days since the super El Niño in 2016. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2020&dpi=100&_fmt=js

Updated for the 3.17 in Montclair, NJ with Tropical Storm Fay. 7/11/2020 8:00 AM NJ-ES-31 Montclair 0.7 N 3.17 NA | NA NA | NA NJ Essex

Following Fay moving through the area, the models backed off the heat they had forecast day 6-10. The ridge amplification looks less impressive now. Just enough high pressure holds on east of New England for more S to SSE onshore flow. But the dew points could turn out to be a bigger story with numerous days in the 70s coming up. So clouds and convection may be a player with such high dew points and weak front or low pressure nearby. New run Old run

I believe this is our first July tropical storm since Bertha in 1996.

Yeah, record rainfall for JFK. TODAY 2.25R

Another case of record heat missing to our north this year.

Getting the strongest gusts of the day so far along the South Shore. Plenty of leaves and small twigs on the ground. Jones Beach N/A 73 N/A N/A E29G38

Gusting to 53 mph in SNJ. At 9:08 AM EDT, 2 NNE Strathmere [Cape May Co, NJ] MESONET reports TROPICAL STORM. WEATHERFLOW SENSOR REPORTS 44 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 53 MPH. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#PHI/202007101308/202007101308

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located just east of North Carolina, at 5 pm EDT.