bluewave

High of 97° at EWR and 95° at LGA through 2pm.

Temperatures are off to the races with Newark jumping from 85° to 90° in one hour. 12 Aug 10:51 am 90 73 58 SW 9 10.00 FEW250 29.99 1016.3 30.01 12 Aug 9:51 am 85 72 65 W 6 10.00 CLR 29.99 1016.3 30.01

The record at JFK is 115 and 129 at Newark.

The NWS really needs to address the situation with the trees blocking the sensor. They didn’t seem to take it into account with the official forecast for today. Notice how the forecast did very well for all the other stations. But it was 4° too high for NYC.

Miami dew points across the region. MIAMI PTSUNNY 91 75 59 E10G22 30.09F HX 101 Poughkeepsie MOSUNNY 90 76 63 S7 29.94 HX 101 Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY 93 75 55 SW14 29.96 HX 104 Somerville MOSUNNY 91 77 63 VRB3 29.96 HX 104 Kennedy Intl MOSUNNY 83 75 77 S10 30.00 HX 90

84° is the highest on record at JFK and EWR. The JFK record was set in 2016 and Newark in 1995. While the Sussex County records only go back to 2000, your record is 79°set in 2016. You can see how many hourly records there have been at our stations in the last 6 years.

Newark just jumped up to 91° Making it to 30 days reaching 90° again. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 11 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 12 1955 32 0 - 1953 32 0 - 1943 32 0 13 2020 31 0 - 2011 31 0 - 1973 31 0 - 1952 31 0 14 2021 30 142

It’s a tropical airmass with PWATS and dew points near the higher end of the range for this time of year,

2019 to 2021 has been the most active through August 10th on record for NJ severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=line&opt=state&station=DMX&state=NJ&limit=yes&c=svrtor&phenomena=TO&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2021&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The max 850 mb temperatures from Thursday into Friday around +22c should approach the August monthly highs since 1979. So the surface highs will come down to the timing of the daily convection potential. Best chances to reach 100° will probably be the usual NE NJ warm spots around Newark. Maybe even around LGA or other warm parts of Queens.

Good model agreement on 850 mb temperatures in the 20-22C range. So this should allow the warm spots to reach 100° or higher. It would be the first June and August 100° or warmer at Newark since 1993 and 1953. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Aug Season 2021 103 97 92 103 2011 102 108 98 108 1994 102 99 95 102 1993 102 105 100 105 1952 102 98 92 102 1943 102 95 97 102 1988 101 101 99 101 1966 101 105 95 105 1959 100 93 96 100 1953 100 99 102 102 1934 100 98 90 100

The -AO/+PNA fans are hoping that the Euro seasonal isn’t smoking something.

We are witnessing the compounding effects of multiple issues. The warming climate is drying out the West to record levels providing more fuel for the fires. So the fires grew to record levels whether the spark is caused by human activities or nature. Poor land management has also contributed to the build up of fuels. People have moved into very high risk areas. It’s very expensive to bury power lines. I am not sure how people will afford steeply rising electric rates to pay these costs. Property insurance is also getting very high in those areas. So people are getting priced out of the market. Many are getting tired of all these fires and costs and moving to other parts of the country. So by just letting climate change run, we are creating a regressive climate damage tax which falls hardest on people with lower incomes.

Figures that Christmas had warmer weather relative to the means than the Memorial day and a July 4th weekends.

10 out of the last 11 weekends since Memorial Day had at least a T of rain. The extended Memorial Day and July 4th weekends were unusually cool and damp. So it will be interesting to see if maybe we get a stalled front or tropical system for Labor Day weekend. Not sure if we ever had all 3 big extended holiday summer weekends with significant rain before.

It’s the land ice that’s at risk in Antarctica from warmer SST’s below the surface. But the tipping point will probably come by around 2060. That’s when we are on track to pass +2c of warming. The big unknown at this point is whether the WAIS will break up over a few centuries or several decades.

We would probably have ocean temperatures in the 80s with a marine heatwave like Japan is having. So we’ll see if the East Coast ever gets one as severe in coming years.

Imagine how many 90° days JFK would have if Jamaica Bay was as warm as Biscayne Bay.

Models lack the resolution to show those finer details. That’s why when they show upper 90s to near 100° in interior NJ those highs usually verify for EWR and LGA. The other thing is that the warmth on the first day of deep SW flow usually beats guidance. Then the heat on the next few days start from a higher launching point than forecast. Sometimes, more morning WSW flow verifies on Long Island before the sea breeze arrives. So areas near and north of the LIE can make a run in 95° before temperatures fall back.

Even SW Nassau should reach 90° before any sea breezes arrive. You can see a deep SW flow from the 5 boroughs westward. Most spots on LI from Sunrise highway north should also reach 90°. Both the Euro and GFS have +20c 850s on Wed, Thurs, and Fri.

Omaha is the most recent record flash flood. Luckily, these people were rescued from the elevator and made it out OK.

Euro and GFS both agree that the usual warm spots could approach 100° this week.

ENSO has pretty much been irrelevant for the last three winters. 18-19 and 19-20 were El Niño’s that never coupled. The actual patterns were La Niña-like with below normal snowfall and a raging polar vortex in 19-20. Last winter was a moderate La Niña with a +PNA and near record -AO. So not much resemblance to a La Niña. As always, we will have near to above normal snowfall if blocking shows up again. But below normal snowfall if the blocking is lackluster. Hard to believe the only winters with below snowfall since 02-03 were 06-07, 07-08, 12-13, 18-19, and 19-20.

10 out of 11 weekends since Memorial Day with at least a T of rain. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Precipitation 2021-05-29 0.58 2021-05-30 1.15 2021-05-31 T 2021-06-01 0.00 2021-06-02 T 2021-06-03 0.41 2021-06-04 0.19 2021-06-05 0.00 2021-06-06 0.00 2021-06-07 0.04 2021-06-08 2.19 2021-06-09 0.53 2021-06-10 0.00 2021-06-11 T 2021-06-12 T 2021-06-13 T 2021-06-14 0.16 2021-06-15 0.01 2021-06-16 0.00 2021-06-17 0.00 2021-06-18 0.00 2021-06-19 0.05 2021-06-20 0.00 2021-06-21 T 2021-06-22 0.17 2021-06-23 0.00 2021-06-24 0.00 2021-06-25 0.00 2021-06-26 0.07 2021-06-27 0.00 2021-06-28 0.00 2021-06-29 0.00 2021-06-30 0.54 2021-07-01 0.94 2021-07-02 1.53 2021-07-03 0.05 2021-07-04 0.00 2021-07-05 0.00 2021-07-06 0.55 2021-07-07 T 2021-07-08 0.08 2021-07-09 1.60 2021-07-10 T 2021-07-11 T 2021-07-12 0.69 2021-07-13 0.01 2021-07-14 0.07 2021-07-15 T 2021-07-16 0.00 2021-07-17 2.28 2021-07-18 T 2021-07-19 T 2021-07-20 0.00 2021-07-21 0.05 2021-07-22 0.00 2021-07-23 T 2021-07-24 0.00 2021-07-25 0.37 2021-07-26 0.08 2021-07-27 T 2021-07-28 0.04 2021-07-29 0.57 2021-07-30 0.00 2021-07-31 0.00 2021-08-01 0.13 2021-08-02 0.00 2021-08-03 0.00 2021-08-04 0.00 2021-08-05 0.00 2021-08-06 0.00 2021-08-07 T 2021-08-08 M