bluewave

The south based -AO and -PNA in spring 2010 gave us the record warmth. The -AO remained in place all summer but the -PNA pumped the SE Ridge for record warmth. 2009 was our last really cool summer since the -AO linked up with the +PNA. So the context of how the other teleconnections interact with the AO is important.

The winter AO and NAO states have been defined by increasing positive and negative extremes. So one phase has not been favored over the other since 2010. Strongest -NAO winter in 09-10 on record and most +NAO on record in 2015. Record SPV in 19-20 followed by 2nd highest number -AO days in 20-21. Back to very +AO this winter. So wild swings from one extreme to the other. Spring has been mostly +AO but with a -NAO. So more east based blocking during the spring for some reason. Winter Spring

Caldwell just switched over to light snow. Mar 12, 9:35 am 37 30 75 30 NNW 10 7.00 Lt snow

Very heavy downpours with gusty winds currently moving north along the Jersey Shore. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 844 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Coastal and outer waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fenwick Island DE... * Until 1045 AM EST. * At 844 AM EST, strong showers and isolated thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Seaside Heights to near Buoy Ge to near Buoy 2ms to Ocean City Pier, moving northeast at 45 knots. Another area of thunderstorms were located offshore of Delaware and southern New Jersey moving north as well. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 40 knots. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.

Australia is the most recent area to experience extreme rainfall.

Heavy March thunderstorms lifting north from SNJ as the low is beginning to rapidly deepen.

Quick warm up following the brief Arctic shot this weekend. A warmer south based -AO pattern will develop over the next 10 days that will merge with the SE Ridge. So expect the ridge axis to get elongated to east of New England. This will allow more onshore flow at times. So plenty of 50s and 60s. Could see a few warmer days topping out in the low 70s. But the more -AO may prevent the area from reaching 80° this month like we did the last two years.

Temperatures should still average above normal this month. Newark is already +3.3 with a quick warm up on the way for next week. But the 76° high this week may be the warmest of the month. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 2022 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 48 30 39 1 26 0 T 0.0 0 2 54 40 47 8 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 3 46 25 36 -3 29 0 0.06 0.0 0 4 39 20 30 -9 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 5 46 26 36 -3 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 6 69 44 57 17 8 0 0.04 0.0 0 7 76 50 63 23 2 0 0.01 0.0 0 8 50 38 44 4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 9 42 33 38 -2 27 0 0.60 0.5 0 10 50 30 40 -1 25 0 0.00 0.0 0

Looks like we can finally see some -AO -NAO blocking in late March as the SPV finally weakens for the season.

Those would be record breaking low pressure values for that part of Canada.

Quick warm up next week on the EPS following the cold and snow potential this weekend. But it doesn’t look like there will be record warmth like we saw with the deep SW flow this week. More potential for the highs to build east of New England with onshore influence at times. March 14-21 EPS Temperature departures Surface pressure anomalies big high east of New England

BGM needs to do well with this in order to avoid a top 10 lowest snowfall season. Time Series Summary for BINGHAMTON (GREATER AP), NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 31 Missing Count 1 2016-05-31 32.0 0 2 2012-05-31 43.5 0 3 1989-05-31 47.8 0 4 1969-05-31 52.0 0 5 1995-05-31 52.8 0 6 2022-05-31 54.6 83 7 1992-05-31 56.0 0 8 1980-05-31 56.8 0 9 1981-05-31 59.3 0 10 1985-05-31 62.5 0

This was the first time between March 1-10 that Newark had measurable snow 2 days after reaching 75°+. The previous record was 3 days set in 1972. 3rd place goes to 1976 which took 4 days. So a continuation of the snow and record warmth close together theme that has become more common here. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 2022 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 48 30 39.0 0.7 26 0 T 0.0 0 2 54 40 47.0 8.5 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 3 46 25 35.5 -3.3 29 0 0.06 0.0 0 4 39 20 29.5 -9.6 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 5 46 26 36.0 -3.3 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 6 69 44 56.5 16.9 8 0 0.04 0.0 0 7 76 50 63.0 23.2 2 0 0.01 0.0 0 8 50 38 44.0 3.9 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 9 42 33 37.5 -2.9 27 0 0.60 0.5 0 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 1972 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 75 42 58.5 20.2 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2 78 58 68.0 29.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 3 65 26 45.5 6.7 19 0 0.73 T 0 4 35 20 27.5 -11.6 37 0 T T 0 5 43 27 35.0 -4.3 30 0 0.18 0.2 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 1976 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 59 43 51.0 12.7 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2 43 33 38.0 -0.5 27 0 0.03 0.0 0 3 37 30 33.5 -5.3 31 0 T 0.0 0 4 48 34 41.0 1.9 24 0 0.12 0.0 0 5 75 44 59.5 20.2 5 0 0.02 0.0 0 6 62 35 48.5 8.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 7 52 31 41.5 1.7 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 8 42 30 36.0 -4.1 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 9 30 25 27.5 -12.9 37 0 0.28 3.8 0

This is the 7th time in the last 10 years that ISP had more snow in March than December. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=202203091826 Islip Airport 1.2 in 0100 PM 03/09 Official NWS Obs Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.9 3.0 15.6 13.0 7.9 0.6 40.9 2021-2022 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.2 M 36.6 2020-2021 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2017-2018 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2012-2013 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9

Snow just changed to sleet here in SW Suffolk and 35°.

34° on the South Shore with snow sticking on the colder surfaces.

Quarter sized flakes now sticking on the colder surfaces and 35° here in SW Suffolk.

Just switched over to giant flakes here and still 36° in SW Suffolk.

36° here in SW Suffolk with rain.

Away from the shore. I am near the GSB in SW Suffolk and it’s 36° with light rain. Snowing at FRG and ISP. Jones Beach N/A 37 N/A N/A E10G16 N/A WCI 30 Wantagh N/A 36 34 93 E9 N/A WCI 29 Hempstead NOT AVBL Matinecock Pt N/A 36 N/A N/A SE3 N/A Farmingdale LGT SNOW 34 32 92 SE6 30.13F FOG WCI 29 MacArthur/ISP LGT SNOW 33 32 96 SE7 30.12F FOG WCI 27

36° with light rain here in SW Suffolk.

The very impressive La Niña background state continues. So instead of weakening into the spring like usual, it’s actually getting stronger again. This has lead to the models correcting stronger on the SE Ridge this month. The brief Arctic shot behind the intense weekend storm will be a bit of an outlier for the warmer than average SE Ridge pattern.

The 12z EPS mean is stronger and further west than the OP. With such an amped system and no blocking, this could come further west in future runs. The strong winds may be the big story for the coast with such a deep low pressure.

Yeah, March 2012 was all about consistently above normal temperatures with Newark going +9.2. But there were only 2 daily record high temperatures and the monthly high only reaching 79°. The warm up in late March last year was more impressive with Newark reaching 84°. The most extreme warmth in March 2012 went to our west. International falls was +14.6 for there warmest March. I believe it was the only time that a U.S. station recorded 10 record daily high temperatures in a row. But several of the days were already surpassed in recent years. International Falls Area, MNPeriod of record: 1897-01-15 through 2022-03-07 3/13 59 in 2016 55 in 2012 54 in 1995+ 3/14 60 in 2016 57 in 2012 54 in 2010+ 3/15 65 in 2015 57 in 2012 57 in 2009+ 3/16 71 in 2012 58 in 2009 57 in 2003 3/17 77 in 2012 55 in 1968 54 in 2010 3/18 79 in 2012 66 in 1918 57 in 2010 3/19 78 in 2012 60 in 1918 57 in 2021 3/20 64 in 2021 61 in 2012 61 in 1987 3/21 69 in 2012 57 in 2021 56 in 1987 3/22 72 in 2012 62 in 2000 56 in 2003

Yeah, it was the beginning of our all or nothing type snowfall patterns which have become more common since the 90s. Over 50” and under 20” years bolded Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9 1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5 1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4 1994-1995 0.0 T T 0.2 11.6 T T 11.8 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3