bluewave

New observations find much greater decline in Arctic sea ice thickness than scientists expected. https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/03/10/newest-satellite-data-shows-remarkable-decline-in-arctic-sea-ice-over-just-three-years/ The newest technology, a combination of ICESat-2 lidar data and CryoSat-2 radar data, is able for the first time to estimate the depth of the snow on top of the Arctic sea ice. Using snow depth and the height of sea ice exposed above water, the study found that multiyear Arctic sea ice lost 16% of its winter volume, or approximately half a meter (about 1.5 feet) of thickness, in the three years since the launch of ICESat-2 in 2018. “We weren’t really expecting to see this decline, for the ice to be this much thinner in just three short years,” said lead author Sahra Kacimi at CalTech’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Less of a temperature range during the summer. But I believe the record was in June 2011 at close to 40°.

Multiple record temperature swings this week in excess of 50° over a short period of time. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=126&month=mar&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

This event occurred pretty much as expected. It’s tough to get more than a light accumulation near the coast in rain to snow events without a closed low. This storm was really flying along with the progressive +AO and not closing off at 500mb. The Euro gets some points for the earlier mix near NYC. But the RGEM and GGEM did better on snowfall amounts near the coast. The global model errors with the GFS and Euro were too much snow in the first few hours around changeover this morning. But the mesos did better with the quick drying out on the NW flow. The late day snow was a result of the upper low which most mesos did well with.

25° with moderate wind driven snow here in SW Suffolk covering all surfaces now.

Areas that missed out on the first batch of snow today can get another chance with this round.

The south based -AO and -PNA in spring 2010 gave us the record warmth. The -AO remained in place all summer but the -PNA pumped the SE Ridge for record warmth. 2009 was our last really cool summer since the -AO linked up with the +PNA. So the context of how the other teleconnections interact with the AO is important.

The winter AO and NAO states have been defined by increasing positive and negative extremes. So one phase has not been favored over the other since 2010. Strongest -NAO winter in 09-10 on record and most +NAO on record in 2015. Record SPV in 19-20 followed by 2nd highest number -AO days in 20-21. Back to very +AO this winter. So wild swings from one extreme to the other. Spring has been mostly +AO but with a -NAO. So more east based blocking during the spring for some reason. Winter Spring

Caldwell just switched over to light snow. Mar 12, 9:35 am 37 30 75 30 NNW 10 7.00 Lt snow

Very heavy downpours with gusty winds currently moving north along the Jersey Shore. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 844 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Coastal and outer waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fenwick Island DE... * Until 1045 AM EST. * At 844 AM EST, strong showers and isolated thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Seaside Heights to near Buoy Ge to near Buoy 2ms to Ocean City Pier, moving northeast at 45 knots. Another area of thunderstorms were located offshore of Delaware and southern New Jersey moving north as well. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 40 knots. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.

Australia is the most recent area to experience extreme rainfall.

Heavy March thunderstorms lifting north from SNJ as the low is beginning to rapidly deepen.

Quick warm up following the brief Arctic shot this weekend. A warmer south based -AO pattern will develop over the next 10 days that will merge with the SE Ridge. So expect the ridge axis to get elongated to east of New England. This will allow more onshore flow at times. So plenty of 50s and 60s. Could see a few warmer days topping out in the low 70s. But the more -AO may prevent the area from reaching 80° this month like we did the last two years.

Temperatures should still average above normal this month. Newark is already +3.3 with a quick warm up on the way for next week. But the 76° high this week may be the warmest of the month. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 2022 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 48 30 39 1 26 0 T 0.0 0 2 54 40 47 8 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 3 46 25 36 -3 29 0 0.06 0.0 0 4 39 20 30 -9 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 5 46 26 36 -3 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 6 69 44 57 17 8 0 0.04 0.0 0 7 76 50 63 23 2 0 0.01 0.0 0 8 50 38 44 4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 9 42 33 38 -2 27 0 0.60 0.5 0 10 50 30 40 -1 25 0 0.00 0.0 0

Looks like we can finally see some -AO -NAO blocking in late March as the SPV finally weakens for the season.

Those would be record breaking low pressure values for that part of Canada.

Quick warm up next week on the EPS following the cold and snow potential this weekend. But it doesn’t look like there will be record warmth like we saw with the deep SW flow this week. More potential for the highs to build east of New England with onshore influence at times. March 14-21 EPS Temperature departures Surface pressure anomalies big high east of New England

BGM needs to do well with this in order to avoid a top 10 lowest snowfall season. Time Series Summary for BINGHAMTON (GREATER AP), NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 31 Missing Count 1 2016-05-31 32.0 0 2 2012-05-31 43.5 0 3 1989-05-31 47.8 0 4 1969-05-31 52.0 0 5 1995-05-31 52.8 0 6 2022-05-31 54.6 83 7 1992-05-31 56.0 0 8 1980-05-31 56.8 0 9 1981-05-31 59.3 0 10 1985-05-31 62.5 0

This was the first time between March 1-10 that Newark had measurable snow 2 days after reaching 75°+. The previous record was 3 days set in 1972. 3rd place goes to 1976 which took 4 days. So a continuation of the snow and record warmth close together theme that has become more common here. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 2022 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 48 30 39.0 0.7 26 0 T 0.0 0 2 54 40 47.0 8.5 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 3 46 25 35.5 -3.3 29 0 0.06 0.0 0 4 39 20 29.5 -9.6 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 5 46 26 36.0 -3.3 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 6 69 44 56.5 16.9 8 0 0.04 0.0 0 7 76 50 63.0 23.2 2 0 0.01 0.0 0 8 50 38 44.0 3.9 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 9 42 33 37.5 -2.9 27 0 0.60 0.5 0 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 1972 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 75 42 58.5 20.2 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2 78 58 68.0 29.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 3 65 26 45.5 6.7 19 0 0.73 T 0 4 35 20 27.5 -11.6 37 0 T T 0 5 43 27 35.0 -4.3 30 0 0.18 0.2 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 1976 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 59 43 51.0 12.7 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2 43 33 38.0 -0.5 27 0 0.03 0.0 0 3 37 30 33.5 -5.3 31 0 T 0.0 0 4 48 34 41.0 1.9 24 0 0.12 0.0 0 5 75 44 59.5 20.2 5 0 0.02 0.0 0 6 62 35 48.5 8.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 7 52 31 41.5 1.7 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 8 42 30 36.0 -4.1 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 9 30 25 27.5 -12.9 37 0 0.28 3.8 0

This is the 7th time in the last 10 years that ISP had more snow in March than December. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=202203091826 Islip Airport 1.2 in 0100 PM 03/09 Official NWS Obs Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.9 3.0 15.6 13.0 7.9 0.6 40.9 2021-2022 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.2 M 36.6 2020-2021 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2017-2018 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2012-2013 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9

Snow just changed to sleet here in SW Suffolk and 35°.

34° on the South Shore with snow sticking on the colder surfaces.

Quarter sized flakes now sticking on the colder surfaces and 35° here in SW Suffolk.

Just switched over to giant flakes here and still 36° in SW Suffolk.

36° here in SW Suffolk with rain.