bluewave

Maybe the big ridge over Eastern Canada and the Northeast means that we are finally getting 500 mb patterns that are coupled with the ENSO. This is a textbook La Niña pattern for the month of October. It could be related to the recent PDO drop and cooler SSTs off of the West Coast. 16-17 and 17-18 were are last two winters that the La Niña or any ENSO state fully coupled.

Getting 10” of rain each month from July to September is an impressive feat even in South Florida. Miami still hasn’t been able to pull it off. But several other stations have. Monthly Total Precipitation for MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AP, FL Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jul Aug Sep Season 1941 15.33 5.01 8.01 28.35 1939 13.85 11.34 6.70 31.89 1947 13.51 6.66 10.71 30.88 2002 12.76 6.55 6.48 25.79 2013 12.70 4.43 10.47 27.60 2017 12.45 8.57 14.97 35.99 1946 11.78 5.13 5.24 22.15 1985 11.23 11.88 8.59 31.70 1988 10.90 7.89 3.09 21.88 2019 10.54 15.74 3.25 29.53 2014 10.29 9.07 7.25 26.61 2020 10.26 7.44 10.92 28.62 Monthly Total Precipitation for MIAMI OPA LOCKA AP, FL Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jul Aug Sep Season 2002 13.11 7.10 4.83 25.04 2014 12.97 8.45 8.88 30.30 2017 11.73 14.11 16.70 42.54 2009 11.53 7.87 9.74 29.14 2013 10.91 4.54 8.23 23.68 2004 10.26 10.88 12.60 33.74 Monthly Total Precipitation for MIAMI KENDALL TAMIAMI EXEC AP, FL Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jul Aug Sep Season 2000 14.74 9.46 6.79 30.99 2006 14.16 9.10 6.21 29.47 2013 11.73 3.48 4.12 19.33 2014 10.92 4.82 5.84 21.58 2020 10.53 2.99 7.82 21.34 2001 10.22 8.74 13.52 32.48 2012 10.10 12.78 11.30 34.18 Monthly Total Precipitation for NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, FL Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jul Aug Sep Season 2006 12.16 11.60 7.50 31.26 2017 11.24 15.55 18.03 44.82 2015 10.15 2.78 6.75 19.68

Radar indicating some small hail possible with the stronger storms on Long Island. OKX set a new daily mid-level lapse rate record.

Islip adds another 75° day to set the new September record. MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 75 61 61 W10 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 75 Missing Count 1 2021 26 2 2 2005 25 0 3 2015 24 0 - 1980 24 0 4 2019 23 0 - 1998 23 0 5 2017 22 0 - 2007 22 0 6 2020 21 0 - 1968 21 0 7 1972 20 0

This is now the wettest September on record at Newark. Wet September patterns in the past have been much cooler. So this will be the first in the top 5 wettest to average above 70°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Avg Temperature 1 2021 10.32 73.2° 2 1944 10.28 68.2° 3 1999 9.38 69.3° 4 1975 9.00 64.3° 5 1933 8.33 68.0°

Newark sets the new record of 120 consecutive days reaching 70° or higher. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 70 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Dates Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2021-09-26 1 120 2021-05-31 through 2021-09-27 2 119 2008-05-23 through 2008-09-18 3 117 1995-05-29 through 1995-09-22 - 117 1994-05-28 through 1994-09-21 4 113 2020-05-25 through 2020-09-14 5 112 2016-06-09 through 2016-09-28 6 110 1966-06-02 through 1966-09-19 7 107 1957-06-09 through 1957-09-23 8 106 2014-05-30 through 2014-09-12 - 106 2010-05-29 through 2010-09-11

Today and possibly tomorrow look like it will be our warmest days for a while as the usual warmer spots reach 80°+. Several locations have had their warmest low max for the month so far. This was the first time that HPN hasn’t had a high below 70° through 9-26. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 26 Missing Count 1 2021-09-26 70 0 2 2016-09-26 69 0 - 1968-09-26 69 0 3 2015-09-26 68 0 - 2005-09-26 68 0 - 1961-09-26 68 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 26 Missing Count 1 2021-09-26 76 0 2 1968-09-26 74 0 3 2005-09-26 72 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 26 Missing Count 1 2021-09-26 74 0 2 1968-09-26 73 0 3 2015-09-26 72 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 26 Missing Count 1 2021-09-26 72 0 2 2015-09-26 71 0 - 2005-09-26 71 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 26 Missing Count 1 2021-09-26 74 0 2 1968-09-26 72 0 3 2016-09-26 71 0 - 2005-09-26 71 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 26 Missing Count 1 2021-09-26 70 0 2 1957-09-26 68 0 - 1930-09-26 68 0

Just in time for this new Euro extended range product.

This coming week is another example of needing record blocking to get below normal temperatures in our area.

Sam joins Lorenzo in being the strongest hurricane this far to the east in the Atlantic so late in the season.

It looks like NYC may finally drop below 55° next week. HPN could also see the first 40s of the fall. This would be very late for these temperature benchmarks at both stations. Latest first day below 55° in NYC First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2015 06-04 (2015) 54 10-02 (2015) 48 119 1910 06-08 (1910) 53 10-02 (1910) 54 115 1921 06-05 (1921) 54 10-01 (1921) 52 117 1908 05-16 (1908) 53 09-30 (1908) 52 136 2005 06-02 (2005) 54 09-29 (2005) 54 118 2003 06-17 (2003) 53 09-29 (2003) 53 103 2002 06-08 (2002) 53 09-29 (2002) 54 112 1968 06-21 (1968) 53 09-29 (1968) 53 99 1930 06-01 (1930) 50 09-29 (1930) 53 119 1970 05-30 (1970) 50 09-27 (1970) 54 119 2016 06-09 (2016) 54 09-25 (2016) 54 107 Latest first 40s at HPN First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2018 06-12 (2018) 49 10-12 (2018) 47 121 2017 06-09 (2017) 47 09-29 (2017) 47 111 2002 06-08 (2002) 48 09-29 (2002) 48 112 1970 05-30 (1970) 44 09-29 (1970) 42 121 1968 05-28 (1968) 46 09-29 (1968) 49 123 2005 05-25 (2005) 46 09-28 (2005) 46 125 2015 06-02 (2015) 48 09-27 (2015) 47 116 1980 06-14 (1980) 47 09-27 (1980) 44 104 2016 05-21 (2016) 48 09-25 (2016) 44 126

Tough to keep up with all the new RI records in recent years.

Record breaking omega block this week with 580 dm heights near Hudson Bay.

Even South Florida is getting a break from the high dew points behind this front.

Updated for 9-23. 9-24….Darien, CT….4.52….North Massapequa, NY….3.05

Front slowing down over eastern sections as the ridge east of New England is still very strong.

Newark is currently in 2nd place for wettest September at 10.08”. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1944 10.28 0 2 2021 10.08 7 3 1999 9.38 0 4 1975 9.00 0 5 1933 8.33 0 6 1934 8.15 0 7 2011 8.13 0 8 2004 8.01 0 9 1971 7.88 0 10 1966 7.86 0

Yeah, a Florida and SE looking tropical cloud streets pattern.

The one comparison that holds between NYC and Miami is the JAS rainfall in 2021 and 2011 is closer to the South Florida average. Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jul Aug Sep Season 2011 3.03 18.95 9.39 31.37 2021 11.09 10.32 7.73 29.14 Monthly Total Precipitation for Miami Area, FL (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jul Aug Sep Season Mean 8.70 10.06 9.15 27.91 2021 8.18 7.29 7.14 22.61 2020 10.26 7.44 10.92 28.62 2019 10.54 15.74 3.25 29.53 2018 8.02 9.58 7.89 25.49 2017 12.45 8.57 14.97 35.99 2016 4.11 13.77 6.05 23.93 2015 5.91 9.02 9.97 24.90 2014 10.29 9.07 7.25 26.61 2013 12.70 4.43 10.47 27.60 2012 8.92 15.92 11.03 35.87 2011 5.71 11.08 4.99 21.78 2010 7.36 8.75 15.89 32.00

Another 80° at Newark today brings the annual count to 110 days. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Missing Count 1 2015 118 0 2 1994 114 0 3 2016 113 0 - 1993 113 0 - 1991 113 0 4 2011 111 0 - 2010 111 0 5 2021 110 99

This area is now at the northern edge of the cfa humid subtropical climate zone. It has been shifting north with each 10 year update. This climate zone covers a large portion of the Eastern US.

Endless summer pattern continues with another top 10 warmest month around the area through the 22nd. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 22 Missing Count 1 1961-09-22 76.2 0 2 2005-09-22 75.9 0 3 2015-09-22 74.9 0 4 2016-09-22 74.5 0 - 1983-09-22 74.5 0 5 1971-09-22 74.2 0 6 2021-09-22 74.0 0 7 1980-09-22 73.8 0 8 2018-09-22 73.6 0 9 1989-09-22 73.5 0 - 1957-09-22 73.5 0 10 1947-09-22 73.3 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 22 Missing Count 1 2015-09-22 72.3 0 2 2005-09-22 72.2 0 3 2018-09-22 71.8 0 - 1980-09-22 71.8 0 4 1983-09-22 71.5 0 5 2016-09-22 71.4 0 6 2021-09-22 70.9 0 7 1998-09-22 70.4 0 8 1971-09-22 70.3 0 9 2008-09-22 68.9 0 10 1996-09-22 68.8 0

The minimum temperatures are rising more rapidly in the Hudson Valley and Northern NJ than NYC and Long Island.

Yeah, I have been seeing more Windmill Palms on Long Island. The key seems to be wrapping them in the winter.

This has been our 2nd warmest mid-September on record. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21 Missing Count 1 2005-09-21 74.7 0 2 2021-09-21 72.0 0 3 2017-09-21 71.6 0 - 1998-09-21 71.6 0 4 2018-09-21 71.5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21 Missing Count 1 2005-09-21 77.9 0 2 2021-09-21 75.2 0 3 2017-09-21 74.1 0 - 1957-09-21 74.1 0 4 1998-09-21 73.9 0 5 2018-09-21 73.3 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21 Missing Count 1 2005-09-21 75.9 0 2 2021-09-21 73.4 0 3 1971-09-21 73.3 0 4 2017-09-21 73.0 0 5 2018-09-21 72.7 0