bluewave

Looks like they snuck the 100° in before the sea breeze arrived.

This has to be one of our warmest southerly flow days here on the South Shore. Currently 90° in Wantagh south of Merrick Road with a southerly wind gusting to 18 mph. This is what happens when the SSTs at the buoy south of Long Beach get close to 80°. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.3 °F

The current 500 mb pattern with a trough near the Great Lakes hasn’t typically produced 100° heat in our area. The 500 mb composite for our last 10 July 100° days since 2010 is much different. A deep trough in the West with a strong ridge over the Northeast has been the norm. So this may explain why we are getting more onshore flow this time. Many heatwaves in the past with multiple 100° days featured deep westerly flow down to the LI South Shore. The record heat in the Southern Plains is getting drawn NE by a low in the Great Lakes this time. Current pattern has the strongest 500 mb anomalies to our south July 100° day composite strong 500mb ridge in Northeast

Several of the sites may not have updated their totals from yesterday yet. But we got very little on the South Shore. So more of the same. Plus your site may not be included on XMACIS2 Monthly Data for July 2022 for Suffolk County, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation BLUE POINT 0.4 E CoCoRaHS 0.15 SAYVILLE 0.2 SE CoCoRaHS 0.19 COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.21 SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.22 ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.24 AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.26 ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 0.26 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0.30 PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.31 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 0.32 REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.32 AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.35 BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.41 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.43 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.46 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0.53 CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 0.53 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.83 SHIRLEY 2.9 N CoCoRaHS 1.01 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1.09 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 1.17 MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 1.25 SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 1.50 RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 1.66 NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 1.92 FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 1.98 RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 1.99 RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 1.99 JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.22 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.27 SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.34 CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 2.48 NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.49 MOUNT SINAI COOP 2.90 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.98 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 3.30 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 3.30 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 3.39 CENTERPORT COOP 3.61 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 3.99

Around .25 of rain this month for the driest South Shore areas to around a 4.00 max on the North Shore.

These are among the lowest soil moisture levels from Central NJ to the LI South Shore in late July. https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/nasa-sport-lis-soil-moisture-products

But the thermometer stays in the shade which keeps it 3-4° colder than out in the open in the Park. http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

The equipment was out in the open before the tree growth began to block the sensors in the 1990s. The NYC thermometer in July 1977 was warmer than Newark and LGA. Most heatwaves before the 90s featured NYC highs more in line the other urban sites. A mesonet on the Great Lawn in Central Park would probably be 3-4° warmer on sunny days in the summer than the current ASOS under the dense vegetation near the castle. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1977-07-13 93 1977-07-14 92 1977-07-15 96 1977-07-16 98 1977-07-17 97 1977-07-18 100 1977-07-19 102 1977-07-20 92 1977-07-21 104 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1977-07-13 92 1977-07-14 91 1977-07-15 93 1977-07-16 97 1977-07-17 99 1977-07-18 98 1977-07-19 100 1977-07-20 90 1977-07-21 102 Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1977-07-13 92 1977-07-14 89 1977-07-15 90 1977-07-16 96 1977-07-17 95 1977-07-18 95 1977-07-19 99 1977-07-20 90 1977-07-21 99

This may be the first time that NJ had 100° readings with a rotating severe supercell moving across Long Island during the same hour.

That’s quite an impressive hook echo for Nassau County.

Newark back to 97° after the brief rain. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kewr Jul 21, 2:20 pm 97 70 42 104 WSW 22 10.00 FEW025 BKN055 BKN110 29.58 29.60 Jul 21, 2:15 pm 95 70 44 101 SW 17 10.00 FEW025 BKN055 BKN110 29.59 29.61 Jul 21, 2:10 pm 95 72 47 103 WSW 17 10.00 FEW020 BKN050 BKN110 29.59 29.61 Jul 21, 2:05 pm 91 74 56 101 WSW 13 10.00 Lt rain FEW020 BKN050 BKN110 29.59 29.61 Jul 21, 2:00 pm 90 73 59 98 SW 12 10.00 Lt rain FEW025 BKN050 BKN110 29.59 29.61

Somerset County trying for a 2nd 100° in a row. Somerville NJ 2022-07-21 13:45 ASOS 97 68 39 29.63 6 SW ▼ Somerville NJ 2022-07-21 13:40 ASOS 97 70 42 29.63 3 W ▼ Somerville NJ 2022-07-21 13:35 ASOS 93 70 47 29.63 5 W

That’s one of the more impressive looking splitting supercells that we have had in a while.

Starting to show some rotation so we’ll have to see if it can tighten up a bit.

This is already day 10 of the heatwave in Somerset County with a high of 95° so far today. https://www.njweather.org/data/daily/3572 ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-21 Mesonet 95 69 76 68 98 50 29.72 29.65 0.00 18 W ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-20 Mesonet 100 67 72 65 94 35 29.81 29.68 0.00 24 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-19 Mesonet 94 70 71 64 91 40 29.83 29.74 0.00 23 WNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-18 Mesonet 97 72 76 70 97 44 30.00 29.73 0.00 31 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-17 Mesonet 90 68 72 65 100 45 30.05 29.97 0.20 14 W ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-16 Mesonet 92 66 70 58 98 35 30.14 30.00 0.00 15 ESE ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-15 Mesonet 91 60 68 53 95 31 30.15 30.06 0.00 15 SSE ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-14 Mesonet 91 63 69 58 97 36 30.07 29.89 0.00 19 NW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-13 Mesonet 93 67 70 58 95 36 29.91 29.76 0.00 16 W ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-12 Mesonet 94 60 72 56 98 46 29.87 29.67 0.00 23 SW

White Plains in Westchester County just tied the highest July dewpoint for 11 am at 77°. White Plains MOSUNNY 88 77 HX 100 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=HPN&month=jul&var=max_dwpf&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Wednesday was the warmest day in Somerset County and parts of Westchester County since 2012. Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2022 100 164 2021 98 1 2020 96 0 2019 98 1 2018 95 3 2017 95 1 2016 97 0 2015 97 50 2014 94 0 2013 97 4 2012 101 17 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2022 97 166 2021 95 5 2020 93 1 2019 95 7 2018 94 0 2017 93 6 2016 95 0 2015 95 3 2014 90 5 2013 94 1 2012 98 2

Newark and Somerset airport both made it to 100° yesterday with westerly flow at Newark before the sea breeze arrived. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-19 94 2022-07-18 93 Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-19 93 2022-07-18 93

When the SSTs and the dewpoints both reach 75° It only takes a weak trigger to set off convection.

The Newark ASOS has been right in line with other urban stations for the last few weeks. There was a period back in June and early July when it was only 1-2° warmer than the other urban sites. But that could just be within the normal warm season variability from station to station. Just check all the other local highs. There hasn’t been any period recently when the Newark ASOS was 4-5° warmer then the next highest temperature in our area.

Yeah, most models like the RGEM have active sea breeze front convection today. The dewpoints are already in the mid 70s on Long Island. Hopefully, the axis of heaviest storms can get your area. MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 77 76

We had at least 4 ground level stations reach 100° yesterday across the area. 3 of these stations were mesonets and 1 was Newark airport. So with this new expanded coverage, we are finding out that Newark really isn’t that unique in terms of heat. The local TV and radio outlets need to highlight more than just the NYC ASOS in Central Park which is in error. The dense tree growth shading the sensor can be 3° or more degrees cooler than just a few hundred feet away on an open lawn in Central Park. That is how much cooler a shielded sensor can be tucked under dense vegetation with shade and leaf transpiration. Many TV and radio forecasts were leading with highs of 90-95° yesterday for NYC. This was due to them just focusing on Central Park instead of the whole area. Outside of the immediate shore, the better range was a high of 95° to 100° which models like the Euro and HRRR did very well with. So the artificially cool NYC readings are one reason it’s rare to see 100° in a local broadcast forecast. ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-20 Mesonet 100 Newark …….100 Brownsville 100 Corona 100

The Euro has an impressive temperature and dewpoint gradient when the heatwave peaks on Sunday. Highs of 104° in New Jersey with mid 70s dewpoints near the coast. So a very strong Ambrose Jet event with gusts to 35 mph along the South Shore.

You know the soil and vegetation has to be very dry for a farm in Somerset County to be almost as hot as Newark. ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-20 15:00 Mesonet 99 https://www.njweather.org/station/3572 https://www.njweather.org/maps/station-locations

High of 99° so far at Newark which is close to the daily record of 101°. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kewr 7/20 101 in 1980 100 in 1991 98 in 2019+