bluewave

Danbury, CT has actually had a snowfall decline over the last 30 years while NYC has held more steady.

We don’t have the 100 year data for the more rural locations. But since global warming accelerated around 1980, low temperatures at the more rural locations have been warming faster than NYC . We can see this when the winter low temperature trends since 1980 are examined. The lows at POU are warming the fastest followed by HPN then NYC.

Most of the snowfall is missing before 1960. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1947-1948 0.0 290 1948-1949 44.5 0 1949-1950 12.5 122 1950-1951 M 365 1951-1952 M 366 1952-1953 M 365 1953-1954 M 365 1954-1955 M 365 1955-1956 M 366 1956-1957 M 365 1957-1958 M 365 1958-1959 8.3 123 1959-1960 34.2 3 1960-1961 58.5 1

Only 3 seasons in the last 30 years with a seasonal snowfall in the 20s vs 12 for previous 30. The the mid-range has been missing as the high and low extremes increase. So you have a high success rate if your seasonal forecasts avoid a seasonal forecast in the 20s. But the trick is knowing ahead of time if it’s under 20” or over 30”. We’ll know before this decade is out if the warming of the climate and La Niña WPAC warm pool results in under 20” or even 10” some years becoming the new normal. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2022-2023 0.2 235 2 2021-2022 21.7 0 3 2020-2021 34.5 0 4 2019-2020 3.8 0 5 2018-2019 14.7 0 6 2017-2018 35.5 0 7 2016-2017 30.9 0 8 2015-2016 41.4 0 9 2014-2015 44.2 0 10 2013-2014 45.6 0 11 2012-2013 17.6 0 12 2011-2012 3.7 0 13 2010-2011 42.0 0 14 2009-2010 47.2 0 15 2008-2009 22.3 0 16 2007-2008 11.7 0 17 2006-2007 8.5 0 18 2005-2006 25.4 0 19 2004-2005 36.8 0 20 2003-2004 37.6 0 21 2002-2003 56.2 0 22 2001-2002 4.5 0 23 2000-2001 33.8 0 24 1999-2000 14.1 0 25 1998-1999 12.3 0 26 1997-1998 3.6 0 27 1996-1997 9.8 0 28 1995-1996 69.0 0 29 1994-1995 7.9 0 30 1993-1994 45.2 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1992-1993 20.0 0 1991-1992 10.5 0 1990-1991 20.4 0 1989-1990 9.6 0 1988-1989 8.2 0 1987-1988 19.7 0 1986-1987 23.1 0 1985-1986 19.3 0 1984-1985 27.3 0 1983-1984 22.0 0 1982-1983 32.1 0 1981-1982 24.9 0 1980-1981 16.5 0 1979-1980 11.0 0 1978-1979 27.2 0 1977-1978 48.5 0 1976-1977 22.7 0 1975-1976 20.7 0 1974-1975 10.5 0 1973-1974 21.8 0 1972-1973 1.6 0 1971-1972 14.9 0 1970-1971 20.1 0 1969-1970 19.5 0 1968-1969 30.8 0 1967-1968 17.4 0 1966-1967 47.0 0 1965-1966 15.6 0 1964-1965 29.5 0 1963-1964 34.4 1

Twice. 88-89 to 89-90 and 97-98. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2022-2023 0.2 235 2 1972-1973 1.6 0 3 1997-1998 3.6 0 4 2011-2012 3.7 0 5 2019-2020 3.8 0 6 2001-2002 4.5 0 7 1994-1995 7.9 0 8 1988-1989 8.2 0 9 2006-2007 8.5 0 10 1989-1990 9.6 0 11 1996-1997 9.8 0

13.7” Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1991-1992 0.0 T 0.9 1.9 0.8 6.9 T 10.5 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 6.1 5.7 7.9 0.7 0.0 20.4 1989-1990 0.0 3.7 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.9 0.5 9.6 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.7 0.1 2.7 0.0 8.2 1987-1988 0.0 0.4 3.0 15.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 19.7

15” average over the last 5 years. Little better than 97-02. Slightly lower than late 80s. Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.0 1.9 4.3 6.6 1.7 T 15.0 2022-2023 0.0 T T T 0.2 M M 0.2 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 17.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 21.7 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.9 26.4 T T 34.5 2019-2020 0.0 T 1.9 1.9 T T T 3.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.8 T 0.7 3.1 6.1 0.0 14.7 Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T T 2.5 4.7 2.7 2.7 0.5 13.0 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 4.1 0.3 0.1 T 4.5 2000-2001 T T 11.9 8.2 7.9 5.8 T 33.8 1999-2000 0.0 T 0.1 8.5 3.3 0.7 1.5 14.1 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.3 3.7 1.7 4.6 0.0 12.3 1997-1998 0.0 T 0.6 0.1 T 2.9 T 3.6 1996-1997 0.0 T T 3.4 3.1 1.8 1.5 9.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.9 1.7 7.3 4.7 1.3 0.1 16.0 1989-1990 0.0 3.7 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.9 0.5 9.6 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.7 0.1 2.7 0.0 8.2 1987-1988 0.0 0.4 3.0 15.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 19.7 1986-1987 0.0 0.4 1.0 11.8 7.9 2.0 0.0 23.1 1985-1986 0.0 T 2.8 3.0 13.5 T T 19.3

Both locations have warmed about 5° during the winter since the late 1800s.

We have been getting more frequent winters similar to what is normal from DC to Baltimore. This translates into 40° months during the winter and under 20” of snow. So more of a northern edge subtropical climate for us. Less of the colder winter continental climate that we used to get.

Warmest departures have been further north this winter so Baltimore is running cooler relative to their rankings. Time Series Summary for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 1932-02-07 46.0 0 2 1890-02-07 44.8 0 3 1950-02-07 43.6 0 4 1933-02-07 41.6 0 5 1937-02-07 41.3 0 6 1949-02-07 41.2 0 7 1913-02-07 40.9 0 8 2020-02-07 40.7 0 - 1947-02-07 40.7 0 - 1880-02-07 40.7 0 9 2012-02-07 40.6 0 10 2016-02-07 40.5 0 11 2002-02-07 40.2 0 12 2023-02-07 40.1 0 - 1924-02-07 40.1 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 2016-02-07 42.8 0 2 1932-02-07 41.5 0 3 2002-02-07 41.4 0 4 2012-02-07 40.5 0 5 2023-02-07 40.0 0 6 1950-02-07 39.8 2 7 1991-02-07 39.6 0 8 2020-02-07 39.3 0 9 1998-02-07 39.1 0 - 1933-02-07 39.1 0 10 1999-02-07 38.9 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 2016-02-07 23.1 0 2 2021-02-07 22.7 0 3 2023-02-07 20.6 0 4 1958-02-07 19.4 0 5 2006-02-07 19.2 0 - 2002-02-07 19.2 0 6 2011-02-07 18.9 0 7 2020-02-07 18.6 0 8 1983-02-07 18.4 0 9 2010-02-07 18.2 0 10 1997-02-07 18.1 0

First place for least number of days with a low temperature at or below freezing. Fifth place for number of days with highs above freezing. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Dec 1 to Feb 8 Missing Count 1 2023-02-08 24 1 2 2016-02-08 25 0 - 2002-02-08 25 0 3 2012-02-08 26 0 - 1932-02-08 26 0 4 2020-02-08 27 0 - 2017-02-08 27 0 - 1998-02-08 27 0 - 1869-02-08 27 31 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature > 32 Dec 1 to Feb 8 Missing Count 1 1998-02-08 69 0 2 2020-02-08 68 0 - 2008-02-08 68 0 - 1953-02-08 68 0 - 1932-02-08 68 0 3 2002-02-08 67 0 - 1993-02-08 67 0 4 1950-02-08 66 1 5 2023-02-08 65 1 - 2017-02-08 65 0 - 2012-02-08 65 0 - 1991-02-08 65 0 - 1975-02-08 65 0 - 1937-02-08 65 0 - 1919-02-08 65 0

Yeah, the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been one of the biggest climate drivers in recent years.

Since 1920 in NYC, there is no snowfall trend. But much more volatility in the 5 year averages since the 90s. So years with higher highs and lower lows. The 2010s was the best decade for snowfall in the last 100 years. But we have also seen several years with lowest snowfall rankings since the 1990s.

The one good thing we can say about the guidance from 7 days out was it saw the coastal storm signal. But the slower evolution and cutting off allowed heights to rise too much in advance of the storm. So their won’t be much cold available when the storm arrives. New run Old run

The 5 year snowfall average is under 20” at several locations since 2018-2019. The WPAC warm pool preventing the El Niño from coupling in 2018-2019 began this period. So a persistent La Niña background state has dominated most years. While long term averages at places like NYC are still in the 20s, these 5 year averages can be useful at detecting change points. If the current 5 year average represents a shift, then NYC 30 year average snowfall may eventually dip under 20” in the long range. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.3 2.6 4.2 6.2 2.7 T 16.4 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 0.4 M M 0.4 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 1.3 3.3 4.3 7.6 2.7 T 18.6 2022-2023 0.0 T 0.1 T 0.3 M M 0.4 2021-2022 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.6 2.3 0.8 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 T 0.0 11.9 3.2 30.6 T 0.0 45.7 2019-2020 0.0 T 4.2 2.7 T T T 6.9 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 0.9 4.8 9.9 0.0 22.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.9 2.5 7.3 6.4 1.4 T 18.2 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 T 0.3 M M 0.7 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8

A seasonal forecaster wouldn’t have had any misses since 2000 if they simply said the snowfall range at Islip would be outside 18-30”. But the real trick is knowing whether it would have been over 30” or under 18” before the seasons started. Getting some type of extreme has been a sure bet to make before the seasons began.

Every season since 1994 has been all or nothing on Long Island. More in the middle seasons before 1994. So our snowfall cycle has become more amplified or extreme with higher highs and lower lows. The 18-30” season used to be common with 1999 being the last one. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2023-04-30 0.7 83 2022-04-30 37.0 0 2021-04-30 33.5 0 2020-04-30 6.8 0 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0 2009-04-30 36.2 0 2008-04-30 10.7 0 2007-04-30 9.0 0 2006-04-30 36.0 0 2005-04-30 58.8 0 2004-04-30 41.4 0 2003-04-30 54.6 0 2002-04-30 3.7 1 2001-04-30 38.9 1 2000-04-30 9.0 0 1999-04-30 19.4 0 1998-04-30 2.6 0 1997-04-30 12.4 1 1996-04-30 77.1 0 1995-04-30 5.1 0 1994-04-30 37.1 0 1993-04-30 28.6 0 1992-04-30 13.4 0 1991-04-30 13.8 0 1990-04-30 19.0 0 1989-04-30 19.0 0 1988-04-30 19.5 0 1987-04-30 22.5 0 1986-04-30 15.2 0 1985-04-30 26.9 0 1984-04-30 27.5 0 1983-04-30 31.9 0 1982-04-30 35.4 0 1981-04-30 20.8 0 1980-04-30 9.0 0 1979-04-30 28.1 0 1978-04-30 68.0 0 1977-04-30 28.0 0 1976-04-30 30.2 0 1975-04-30 14.5 0 1974-04-30 34.0 0 1973-04-30 4.5 0 1972-04-30 15.6 0 1971-04-30 18.9 0 1970-04-30 27.0 0 1969-04-30 33.5 0 1968-04-30 22.6 0 1967-04-30 50.8 0 1966-04-30 15.7 0 1965-04-30 39.5 0 1964-04-30 39.7 6

Lowest snowfall at both stations ahead of 1998 and 1973. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 2023-02-07 0.2 1 2 1998-02-07 0.7 0 3 1973-02-07 0.8 0 4 2007-02-07 1.7 0 5 1992-02-07 2.8 0 6 2008-02-07 2.9 0 7 2012-02-07 3.1 0 8 1997-02-07 3.4 0 9 1975-02-07 3.5 0 10 1993-02-07 3.6 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 2023-02-07 0.6 1 2 1973-02-07 1.5 0 3 2007-02-07 1.9 0 4 1998-02-07 2.4 0 5 2008-02-07 2.7 0 6 1992-02-07 2.8 0 7 2002-02-07 3.3 0 - 1997-02-07 3.3 0 8 2013-02-07 4.0 0 9 2020-02-07 4.6 0 10 2012-02-07 5.1 0

Pulling ahead of 1998 for lowest snowfall by February 7th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 2023-02-07 0.4 1 2 1998-02-07 0.5 0 3 1919-02-07 0.6 0 4 1900-02-07 1.1 0 5 1914-02-07 1.6 0 6 1973-02-07 1.8 0 7 1901-02-07 2.1 2 8 1992-02-07 2.2 0 9 1906-02-07 2.5 0 10 2007-02-07 2.6 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 2023-02-07 0.7 1 2 1998-02-07 1.0 0 3 1973-02-07 1.5 0 4 2007-02-07 1.9 0 5 1969-02-07 3.0 0 6 2008-02-07 3.4 0 7 2002-02-07 3.7 1 8 2012-02-07 4.1 0 9 1992-02-07 4.3 0 10 1997-02-07 4.5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 2023-02-07 0.4 1 2 1973-02-07 1.1 0 3 1992-02-07 1.5 0 4 1931-02-07 3.0 123 5 1997-02-07 3.5 0 6 2002-02-07 3.6 0 7 1998-02-07 3.8 0 8 2007-02-07 3.9 0 9 1932-02-07 4.1 0 10 2008-02-07 4.3 0 - 1993-02-07 4.3 0

The GFS is pretty far behind the other major global models. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/

50° days have become more common around lows under 20° or 10° since 2005. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2023-02-03 35 11 2023-02-04 27 3 2023-02-05 49 27 2023-02-06 52 34 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-12-23 58 8 2022-12-24 15 7 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-02-14 25 16 2022-02-15 30 16 2022-02-16 49 28 2022-02-17 68 49 2022-02-18 63 27 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2020-12-19 32 20 2020-12-20 40 31 2020-12-21 46 37 2020-12-22 46 38 2020-12-23 45 36 2020-12-24 59 43 2020-12-25 61 29 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2019-01-30 35 6 2019-01-31 16 2 2019-02-01 21 11 2019-02-02 34 16 2019-02-03 53 33 2019-02-04 61 41 2019-02-05 65 44 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2018-01-05 19 9 2018-01-06 13 6 2018-01-07 18 5 2018-01-08 31 17 2018-01-09 44 30 2018-01-10 43 30 2018-01-11 53 41 2018-01-12 61 44 2018-01-13 58 19 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2017-12-19 55 45 2017-12-20 51 34 2017-12-21 39 32 2017-12-22 50 35 2017-12-23 48 38 2017-12-24 41 36 2017-12-25 38 28 2017-12-26 28 23 2017-12-27 24 17 2017-12-28 18 11 2017-12-29 22 11 2017-12-30 23 17 2017-12-31 21 9 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2017-01-07 26 20 2017-01-08 25 16 2017-01-09 23 14 2017-01-10 46 21 2017-01-11 52 42 2017-01-12 66 47 2017-01-13 62 32 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2016-02-13 22 6 2016-02-14 15 -1 2016-02-15 35 13 2016-02-16 54 35 2016-02-17 39 35 2016-02-18 36 27 2016-02-19 39 24 2016-02-20 61 39 2016-02-21 55 44 2016-02-22 52 38 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2016-01-04 36 14 2016-01-05 29 11 2016-01-06 41 25 2016-01-07 46 31 2016-01-08 46 31 2016-01-09 47 40 2016-01-10 59 40 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2015-01-04 56 41 2015-01-05 49 21 2015-01-06 22 19 2015-01-07 23 9 2015-01-08 21 8 2015-01-09 33 19 2015-01-10 23 16 2015-01-11 37 18 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2014-02-22 54 40 2014-02-23 54 43 2014-02-24 44 27 2014-02-25 33 24 2014-02-26 31 20 2014-02-27 34 14 2014-02-28 24 9 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2014-01-03 18 9 2014-01-04 29 8 2014-01-05 40 27 2014-01-06 55 19 2014-01-07 19 4 2014-01-08 22 9 2014-01-09 32 22 2014-01-10 37 30 2014-01-11 58 37 2014-01-12 54 38 2014-01-13 51 37 2014-01-14 52 44 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2013-12-21 65 51 2013-12-22 71 61 2013-12-23 64 42 2013-12-24 42 26 2013-12-25 31 19 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2013-02-15 55 37 2013-02-16 41 31 2013-02-17 32 18 2013-02-18 35 17 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2013-01-19 51 30 2013-01-20 53 30 2013-01-21 32 26 2013-01-22 27 13 2013-01-23 20 11 2013-01-24 22 12 2013-01-25 24 13 2013-01-26 27 15 2013-01-27 34 19 2013-01-28 36 29 2013-01-29 49 36 2013-01-30 59 39 2013-01-31 61 30 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2012-01-03 33 15 2012-01-04 27 13 2012-01-05 40 27 2012-01-06 53 35 2012-01-07 62 46 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2011-02-09 29 15 2011-02-10 29 22 2011-02-11 37 19 2011-02-12 40 30 2011-02-13 46 28 2011-02-14 58 37 2011-02-15 37 25 2011-02-16 48 26 2011-02-17 63 46 2011-02-18 67 46 2011-02-19 54 23 2011-02-20 40 21 2011-02-21 37 24 2011-02-22 36 16 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2010-01-24 50 32 2010-01-25 57 49 2010-01-26 49 35 2010-01-27 39 31 2010-01-28 42 20 2010-01-29 23 16 2010-01-30 20 13 2010-01-31 30 14 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2009-02-05 23 12 2009-02-06 32 15 2009-02-07 50 28 2009-02-08 58 38 2009-02-09 45 33 2009-02-10 50 35 2009-02-11 65 45 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2008-12-15 67 48 2008-12-16 58 30 2008-12-17 42 32 2008-12-18 42 36 2008-12-19 37 29 2008-12-20 31 22 2008-12-21 37 25 2008-12-22 27 13 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2008-02-05 52 38 2008-02-06 68 41 2008-02-07 49 38 2008-02-08 45 35 2008-02-09 44 37 2008-02-10 44 15 2008-02-11 24 10 2008-02-12 31 17 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2008-01-02 38 17 2008-01-03 20 12 2008-01-04 36 16 2008-01-05 43 32 2008-01-06 50 36 2008-01-07 62 45 2008-01-08 64 53 2008-01-09 64 47 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2006-12-01 70 49 2006-12-02 49 39 2006-12-03 46 35 2006-12-04 41 31 2006-12-05 37 29 2006-12-06 49 31 2006-12-07 53 26 2006-12-08 29 18 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2006-02-15 56 36 2006-02-16 59 40 2006-02-17 58 32 2006-02-18 35 15 2006-02-19 30 15 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2006-01-15 32 16 2006-01-16 32 16 2006-01-17 44 26 2006-01-18 58 36 2006-01-19 47 34 2006-01-20 61 42 2006-01-21 63 38 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2005-02-15 56 46 2005-02-16 54 35 2005-02-17 38 31 2005-02-18 31 18 2005-02-19 32 16 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2005-01-13 59 38 2005-01-14 66 34 2005-01-15 34 26 2005-01-16 31 27 2005-01-17 28 18 2005-01-18 18 9 2005-01-19 26 9 2005-01-20 30 20 2005-01-21 20 9 2005-01-22 25 6 2005-01-23 26 9 2005-01-24 24 8 2005-01-25 33 20 2005-01-26 37 17 2005-01-27 18 9 2005-01-28 22 5

Main difference between now and 2018 is we have much less seasonal snowfall before this one. So the background pattern has been less conducive for snow than 17-18 through early February. SSWs following less snowy periods like 2001, 2009, and 2019 didn’t produce as much snow. So the seasonal pattern before the SSW can be just as important. Just look at the list below. So a SSW can’t reorder the whole seasonal pattern. But it may be our best chance for accumulating snow. https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

It was the coldest for Scranton but the data from MPO was missing. Time Series Summary for WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, PA - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 -21 0 2 1979 -16 0 3 1985 -14 0 4 1981 -13 0 5 1984 -11 0 - 1961 -11 0 6 1977 -10 0 - 1968 -10 0 - 1962 -10 1 - 1957 -10 Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1989-1990 -20 39 1990-1991 -10 18 1991-1992 -4 18 1992-1993 -18 11 1993-1994 M 90 1994-1995 M 90 1995-1996 -11 33 1996-1997 -10 15 1997-1998 1 10 1998-1999 -6 11 1999-2000 -4 0

Gusts in excess of 50 and 60 mph across the area. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=202302041149

The closest that I could find was Sussex approaching -30 on 3 days in late January 1994 which was their coldest on record. That was the last of the historic Arctic outbreaks to affect our area. The big ones in recent years missed to our west like in 2021 and 2019. https://www.wunderground.com/article/storms/winter/news/2022-12-16-most-extreme-arctic-outbreaks-us Data for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Min Temperature 1994-01-20 -16 1994-01-21 -29 1994-01-22 -28 1994-01-23 4 1994-01-24 M 1994-01-25 30 1994-01-26 9 1994-01-27 -15 1994-01-28 -15 1994-01-29 -28 1994-01-30 19 1994-01-31 5 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 -29 137 2 1961 -25 1 3 1912 -24 9 4 1967 -23 6 5 1981 -22 1 - 1968 -22 40 6 1984 -21 9 7 1948 -20 3 - 1943 -20 7