bluewave

Central Park tied the record of 88° before the trees fully leafed out.

Coastal sections of Northern California had their 2nd coldest March on record. I have been using NOAA. The coastal bouy off San Diego recorded its lowest SST on record. So the trades have been slow to relax back to the Central Pacific with this pattern. Notice how the WWBs are further west near Indonesia instead of closer to 180. So the subsurface near Dateline is much less impressive than years like 2015 and 1997 as GaWx posted yesterday. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

ISP tied the record high of 82° at 10am. 4/13 82 in 1977 72 in 2018 72 in 1968

Don’t have that one. But NOAA came in at -2.35 for March. Lowest March reading since 1956. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

25 inches of rain for Fort Lauderdale.

HRRR has 3rd earliest 90° for Newark.

Has Newark ever had a record low max which was above 60° in the spring with a dewpoint in the 20s before? The previous record low max of 59° in 2017 had a dewpoint of 51°. The record for 4-13 had a 60° dewpoint. So these record low maxes usually occur on higher dewpoints above 50° early mornings. Newark/Liberty CLOUDY 65 29 4/12 59 in 2017 56 in 1948 56 in 1947 6:51 AM 60 °F 51 °F 72 % 4/13 61 in 2019 6:51 AM 61 °F 60 °F 97 % 4/14 62 in 2014 6:51 AM 62 °F 55 °F 78 %

The last 35 dewpoint at Newark in July was in 2010. Plenty of dry heat that month. The drought feedback boosted the heat that month. https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nj/newark/KEWR/date/2010-7-1 4:51 PM 79 °F 35 °F 20 % https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nj/newark/KEWR/date/2010-7-3 2:51 PM 92 °F 41 °F 17 % https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nj/newark/KEWR/date/2010-7-4 2:51 PM 99 °F 43 °F 15 % https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nj/newark/KEWR/date/2010-7-5 1:51 PM 100 °F 45 °F 15 % https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nj/newark/KEWR/date/2010-7-6 12:51 PM 102 °F 56 °F 22 % Data for July 1, 2010 through July 30, 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 106 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106 NJ CRANFORD COOP 104 CT DANBURY COOP 104 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 103 NY WEST POINT COOP 103 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 103 Data for July 1, 2010 through July 30, 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 106 PA MARCUS HOOK COOP 105 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 105 NJ PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 104 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NJ TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 104 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 104 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 104

Newark ties with 1977 for 7th earliest 85° or warmer day of the season. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 1-1990 03-13 (1990) 86 10-09 (1990) 87 209 2-1945 03-20 (1945) 85 09-29 (1945) 89 192 3-1998 03-30 (1998) 86 09-27 (1998) 91 180 4-1991 04-07 (1991) 85 09-17 (1991) 95 162 4-2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 90 170 5-2013 04-09 (2013) 85 10-04 (2013) 89 177 6-2011 04-11 (2011) 87 10-10 (2011) 85 181 7-1977 04-12 (1977) 90 09-18 (1977) 85 158

I learned more about weather forecasting using resources on the internet than trying to use textbooks and Alden Difax maps in the 1980s. You don’t even need to understand calculus to be a good forecaster these days. But an advanced math background is required if you want to work in model development or other research areas and academia. Though you can still understand the concepts in papers without advanced math. A big part of forecasting is understanding model strengths, weaknesses, and biases. Learning basic weather statistics can go a long way.

None of the El Niño events following 09-10 evolved in a way that were familiar to us from what happened in the past. Models were indicating an El Niño in 12-13 that began to dissipate after Labor Day with the strong trades and -PDO. But it still acted in some ways like like an El Niño winter. Front loaded warmth and the historic Nemo in February. The spring of 2014 saw strong WWBs and the talk turned to a strong El Niño in 14-15. But the trades picked back up and we had one of the farthest west Modokis for that winter. The big event was delayed a year to 15-16 and produced the record Nino 4 temperatures. Front loaded historic warmth with the first strong MJO 4-6 in December during a super El Niño. But the westward lean back to the CP during the 2nd half of the winter with blocking gave us the historic January snowstorm. The 18-19 El Niño never coupled due to all the warm water in the WPAC mimicking a La Niña. So we got the Aleutian Ridge-Western Trough-SE Ridge combo. This event is starting out east based before Nino 3.4 had a chance to catch up. So we could see Nino 1-2 begin to decline before an actual El Niño is declared using 3.4. Not many analogs for what happens when these two regions are out of phase. We will probably need much stronger and sustained CP WWBs to get a trimonthly ONI of +1.5 or higher in Nino 3.4. This could happen if the trades can relax enough. But we have never seen a super before with such strong trades like we had in March. Seems like the atmosphere gets an early start in March ahead of super El Niño’s. But some strong events can see a pick up in WWB activity later in the spring. So these individual model forecasts may not yet have a good handle of how this El Niño will develop until the CP WWB activity comes into better focus.

This link gives you a very good explanation. I can remember my class learning the Skew-T back in meteorology 101. Gives a great image of the whole atmosphere in one diagram. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/thermo/skewt/

Yeah, true east based El Niño events have become very rare since the 1980s. The 82-83 and 97-98 events developed with strong WWBs in the CPAC in March. That didn’t happen this year. So we haven’t had strong east based event developing from the rare EPAC WWBs like we recently saw. That’s why we don’t have any good analogs for how this one may evolve.

Pretty cool soundings.

Thanks. do they have these same assorted charts on the site somewhere back to 1979?

Plenty of extra precipitation for the warming Gulf Stream.

Do you have a direct link to those TAO Triton charts with an archive of previous events back in time? See them posted online but can’t find the link to make the charts.

Yeah, the very strong -PDO signature pattern has probably delayed the WWB response until now west of the Dateline compared to the top El Niño events. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/dashboard.html https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850 850 MB TRADE WIND INDEX(175W-140W)5N 5S CENTRAL PACIFIC ANOMALY 2023 3.4 3.7 1.6 2015 -2.1 -1.2 -0.6 1997 -0.6 2.2 -1.6 1982 0.8 -0.8 -0.9

Wonder if Nino 1.2 peaks early in the next few months like 57-58 did? These Nino 1+2 maxes typically occur later on in the event. Then there is the possibility of a secondary peak a few months after that like we saw with 97-98 and 82-83.

Impressive temperature gradient around the snowpack in North Dakotas.

It’s the 3rd warmest Nino 1.2 reading according to that dataset. The warmest was in March 2017 which never developed outside Nino 1+2. The March 1998 2nd place occurred near the end of that El Niño rather than the beginning. Same for the warmest reading in 82-83 which was near the end. So not many analogs for this one. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ #1…..15 March 2017…28.9° #2….11 March 1998…28.8° #3…05 April 2023.…28.7° #4…23 March 1983….28.6° https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151183/warming-water-and-downpours-in-peru The changes have been large enough that Peru's National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (Senamhi) has said the area is now experiencing a coastal El Niño. The map below shows sea surface temperature anomalies on April 4, 2023. Surface waters were roughly 6°C (10.8°F) warmer than usual offshore of Peru for that date, according to data from the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (MUR SST) project. MUR SST blends measurements of sea surface temperatures from multiple NASA, NOAA, and international satellites, as well as ship and buoy observations. (Scientists also use instruments The unusually warm waters have played a role in energizing intense rainfall onshore, with northern Peru, Ecuador, and parts of western Brazil receiving frequent heavy rains since mid-March. The rains became especially intense after the rising ocean temperatures helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Yaku, which pumped even more rain into the normally dry region. The storm, the first tropical cyclone to hit the area in decades, was disorganized and lacked an eye, but it dropped record amounts of rain in semi-arid northern Peru on March 9, 2023. Pacasmayo received 13.7 centimeters of rain in a 24-hour period, and Chiclayo saw 8.7 centimeters. The warm sea surface temperatures coincided with the part of the year when Peru normally sees its highest water temperatures offshore, explained René Garreaud, an environmental scientist at the University of Chile. This pushed sea surface temperatures above 27°C (80°F), speeding evaporation, making the air more humid, and fueling the formation of tall convective clouds that produce downpours and thunderstorms. The situation is similar to 2017, the last time a coastal El Niño flooded the area with rain.

December 2015 which had the +13 historic temperature departures around NYC had very unusual MJO activity for a super. Was the first time during a super that there was a Niña-like strong MJO 4-6 in December. I think the combination of those features along with the strong December +AO drove the anomalous ridge in the Northeast that December. But the MJO progressing through 7-8 into January with the great blocking turned things around. Never saw such a warm WPAC with a super El Niño before. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-020-0261-x Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Niño in Comparison with Other Super El Niño Events Abstract Many previous studies have demonstrated that the boreal winters of super El Niño events are usually accompanied by severely suppressed Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) activity over the western Pacific due to strong descending motion associated with a weakened Walker Circulation. However, the boreal winter of the 2015/16 super El Niño event is concurrent with enhanced MJO activity over the western Pacific despite its sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) magnitude over the Niño 3.4 region being comparable to the SSTA magnitudes of the two former super El Niño events (i.e., 1982/83 and 1997/98). This study suggests that the MJO enhanced over western Pacific during the 2015/16 super El Niño event is mainly related to its distinctive SSTA structure and associated background thermodynamic conditions. In comparison with the previous super El Niño events, the warming SSTA center of the 2015/16 super El Niño is located further westward, and a strong cold SSTA is not detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the low-level moisture and air temperature (as well as the moist static energy, MSE) tend to increase in the central-western Pacific. In contrast, the low-level moisture and MSE show negative anomalies over the western Pacific during the previous super El Niño events. As the MJO-related horizontal wind anomalies contribute to the further westward warm SST-induced positive moisture and MSE anomalies over the western tropical Pacific in the boreal winter of 2015/16, stronger moisture convergence and MSE advection are generated over the western Pacific and lead to the enhancement of MJO convection.

This paper does a good job classifying the various El Niño events. In terms of snow and colder temperatures, the Modoki events in 02-03, 09-10, and 14-15 were the forum favorites. Even the basin wide super in 15-16 had a CP forcing lean later on with the record Nino 4 SSTs. This gave us around NYC the record snowstorm in late January and below 0° in February. Notice how much further west the forcing was than the 97-98 super. So each one of these events has unique characteristics. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1911130116