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Everything posted by bluewave
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We need some type of extreme blocking these days to make a run on record lows.
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This is the coldest Arctic outbreak following 4 days reaching 70° at Newark by March 27th. The previous record was a low of 26° set in 2016. Newark dropped to 23° this morning for the first time following such a warm start to spring through the 27th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Mar 27 Lowest Temperature after Mar 27 1 2012-03-27 8 38 2 1946-03-27 6 32 - 1945-03-27 6 33 3 2020-03-27 5 32 4 2022-03-27 4 23 - 2016-03-27 4 26 - 1990-03-27 4 28 - 1987-03-27 4 31
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Locally 3” of snow with that streamer stalled in place over CT. Be interesting to see how much Eastern LI has picked up. That band has been very persistent.
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Looks like the big weather swings will continue. Euro has low 20s around NYC Monday and Tuesday mornings. Quick rebound back to near 70° on Thursday. The next storm and cold front may be accompanied by an early season severe thunderstorm outbreak later Thursday. A high shear and low CAPE event with the potential for embedded spin ups. Then a return to colder to start April but not as cold as the next few days.
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One part of our warming climate is that the highest temperature is rising rapidly from Feb 21 to March 20. But the coldest temperature from Mar 21 to Apr 20 has been slowly declining since 1991. So this allows earlier spring blooms to be followed by hard freezes. Probably is related to all this spring blocking following early starts to spring.
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This will be an unprecedented Arctic outbreak following 4 days reaching 70° at Newark by March 27th. The previous record was a low of 26° set recently in 2016. Model forecasts have temperatures dropping to the low 20s at Newark. This early warm up allowed many trees to bloom several weeks ahead of schedule. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Mar 27 Lowest Temperature after Mar 27 1 2012-03-27 8 38 2 1946-03-27 6 32 - 1945-03-27 6 33 3 2020-03-27 5 32 4 2022-03-27 4 ? - 2016-03-27 4 26 - 1990-03-27 4 28 - 1987-03-27 4 31
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Yeah, that was our last out of season hailstorm like today. So now we have a significant March hailstorm following one in November. Parts of CT had enough hail accumulation to cause spin outs.
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November and March are becoming big hail months for our area with these record lapse rates.
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Yeah, it was part of the final warming event and record Scandinavian Ridge buckling the flow. The EPS has the record cold potential into early next week with the strong blocking. Weaker blocking and cold during the first week of April. Then a lingering Northeast trough at the end of the run on the 10th.
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While record warmth has become the norm around here, Monday into Tuesday will be one of those rare chances for record cold. We usually don’t see this type of unmodified Arctic airmass directly from near the North Pole. The 850 mb temperatures will be among the lowest on record since 1979 for this time of year.
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Small hail or graupel possible today with some of the steepest lapse rates we have ever seen here from the surface to 500 mb. Very unusual looking soundings for this part of the country. Could also be some thunder with the stronger cells. Then snow squalls possible with the Arctic front later tomorrow.
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It will be interesting to see if we get our 8th warmer than average winter in a row for 22-23. 10-11 was our last cold La Niña winter. Most of them have been warmer than average. Warmer La Niña winters since 95-96 98-99 99-00 05-06 07-08 11-12 16-17 17-18 20-21 21-22 Colder than average La Ninas 95-96 00-01 08-09 10-11
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But we need an El Niño for a new record.
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It will be interesting to see if the La Niña continues to get stronger in April. The blocking pattern to end March and start April matches the La Niña composites. It’s one of the few times of the year when a La Niña can be colder than average here. So we’ll get near record Arctic cold here early next week. While the Arctic air quickly moderates to start April, the EPS still has a trough near the Northeast. The La Niña composite for April has a cooler Northeast trough. So we’ll have to wait and see if the EPS continues the cooler than a average temperature beyond the start of April. Near record Arctic cold early next week Top 10 warmest March through the 25th fits the warming background pattern and La Niña. April La Niña composite is cooler….How long will the pattern last?
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Frosts yes, but temperatures below 25° not ideal. https://www.chicagotribune.com/lifestyles/home-and-garden/ct-home-0406-garden-qa-20170407-story.html
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All the local grocery stores and garden centers already have out the annual flowering plants like pansies and petunias. Several people around here have the flowering baskets in front of their houses. So they will all have to be taken in.
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We had a nice soaking here in the South Shore of Suffolk last night with 1.00 to 1.35. Parts of the Jersey Shore were 2.00+.So a continuation of the winter progressive pattern with the coast doing better than the interior. Station Number: NY-SF-49 Station Name: Sayville 1.0 SSE Observation Date 3/24/2022 7:00 AM Submitted 3/24/2022 7:07 AM Gauge Catch 1.30 in.
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The one thing about the 6”+ April events is that they followed cold winters or cold Marches. So they were a product of the cold winter or early spring patterns. April 2018 followed the cold March with record 30” of snow at ISP. April 2003 followed one of our coldest and snowiest winters of the last 20 years. April 1996 speaks for itself with the historic snowfall that year with a cold winter into spring. The all-time April best blizzard of 1982 followed the cold 81-82 winter. Data for April 6, 1982 through April 6, 1982 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 16.0 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 15.1 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 12.8 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 12.0 NJ LODI COOP 11.5 NY SCARSDALE COOP 10.2 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 10.1 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 10.0 CT DANBURY COOP 10.0 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 10.0 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 9.7 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 9.6 NY MINEOLA COOP 9.0 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 9.0 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 9.0 NY WESTBURY COOP 8.8 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 8.8 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 8.5 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 8.2 NY WEST POINT COOP 8.0 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 8.0 Data for April 8, 1996 through April 10, 1996 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 15.0 CT JEWETT CITY COOP 13.0 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 12.0 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 12.0 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 11.0 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 9.8 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 9.6 CT GROTON COOP 9.5 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 9.0 CT DANBURY COOP 8.1 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 8.0 NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 7.5 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 7.0 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 6.0 NY MINEOLA 1 NE COOP 5.5 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 4.0 Data for April 7, 2003 through April 8, 2003 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 8.0 NJ HARRISON COOP 6.5 NY CENTERPORT COOP 6.4 NY OCEANSIDE COOP 6.1 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 5.6 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 5.4 NY BRONX COOP 5.3 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 5.3 NY SEA CLIFF COOP 5.0 NJ CRANFORD COOP 5.0 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 4.5 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 4.4 CT JEWETT CITY COOP 4.0 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 4.0 Data for April 1, 2018 through April 3, 2018 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 8.2 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 7.5 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 7.5 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 7.4 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 7.4 CT DARIEN 2.8 NW CoCoRaHS 7.3 CT STAMFORD 4.2 S CoCoRaHS 7.2 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 7.1 NY WADING RIVER 2.0 NW CoCoRaHS 7.1 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 7.0 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 7.0 NY GREENWOOD LAKE 3.0 SW CoCoRaHS 7.0 NY ARMONK 0.4 E CoCoRaHS 7.0 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 7.0 NY CENTERPORT COOP 6.9 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NW CoCoRaHS 6.8 NJ HARRISON COOP 6.5 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 6.5 NJ HAWTHORNE 0.4 S CoCoRaHS 6.5 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 6.5 CT MADISON CENTER 4.1 N CoCoRaHS 6.5 NY FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 6.3 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 6.2 CT MADISON CENTER 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 6.2 CT DANBURY COOP 6.1 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 6.1 CT SEYMOUR 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 6.1 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 6.0 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 6.0 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 6.0 CT BRIDGEPORT-SUCCESS HILL COOP 6.0 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 6.0 CT RIDGEFIELD 1.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 6.0 NY ARMONK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 5.9 NJ WESTFIELD 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 5.8 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 5.7 NY WEST NYACK 1.3 WSW CoCoRaHS 5.7 CT MILFORD 1.8 E CoCoRaHS 5.7 CT MYSTIC 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 5.7 CT BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 5.6 CT SOUTHBURY 2.0 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.6 CT NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW CoCoRaHS 5.6 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 5.5 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 5.5
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Yeah, the average date of the first 70° In Newark has moved up from March 29th in 1981 to February 27th in 2022. This allows the plants to bloom several weeks earlier than they used to. But the last freeze date has remained steady in late March.This time we may have two consecutive hard freezes Monday and Tuesday following several 70° days since late February. Numerous Cherry Blossoms are already in full bloom around the NYC area.
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The historic warmth in Antarctica was probably the most extreme global weather event this month.
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The Euro always had a brief Arctic outbreak from the 27th to the 29th. Then a warm up when the TPV lifts out later next week. It’s followed by a cool down in early April with lingering blocking. So our last best chance for snow this season looks to be around the 27th to 28th with possible snow squalls. The below average temperatures in early April currently don’t look cold enough for snow.
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The polar vortex crossing the area from Sunday into Monday may be our best shot at some snow squalls.
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I am not a big fan of using Central Park snowfall measurements later in the season. Many of the events are less than 1” at EWR, LGA, and JFK. Those are the ones that go as trace in NYC. We saw this with the late night snow on 4-15-14. There was no measurement in NYC right after the snow. So only the airports with full time observers recorded the light accumulations. NYC incorrectly went in as a trace. The list below has all the measurable snowfall events at Newark after March 25th since 1996. There were 8 years with measurable snow. Most of the events had a very cold upper low or TPV crossing the Great Lakes. Dates of Newark measurable snowfall after March 25th since 1996. 4-2-18 4-15-14 4-5-06 4-7-03 3-26-01 4-09-00 4-1-97 4-9-96 8 storm composite Data for April 15, 2014 through April 16, 2014 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NY CARMEL 4N COOP 2.4 NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 1.8 CT DANBURY COOP 1.8 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 1.8 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 1.1 NY COLD SPRING 8.1 NE CoCoRaHS 1.0 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 1.0 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 0.7 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 0.6 NJ CRANFORD COOP 0.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 0.5 NY MIDDLE VILLAGE 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 0.5 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 0.6 SW CoCoRaHS 0.5 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 0.4 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 0.4 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 0.3 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NW CoCoRaHS 0.3 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.3 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.3 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.3 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.3 NJ WESTFIELD 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 0.2 NJ KENILWORTH 0.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.2 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.2 NY RONKONKOMA 1.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.2 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 0.2 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 0.2 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 0.1 NJ SADDLE BROOK TWP 0.6 E CoCoRaHS 0.1 NJ NORTH HALEDON 0.6 N CoCoRaHS 0.1 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.1 NY CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.1 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 0.1 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 0.1 CT BRIDGEPORT-SUCCESS HILL COOP 0.1 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN T
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Yeah, some early blooms around the area with the 9th warmest March through the 22nd. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 22 Missing Count 1 2012-03-22 51.2 0 2 2010-03-22 48.6 0 3 2020-03-22 48.5 0 4 1921-03-22 48.2 0 5 2016-03-22 47.6 0 6 1903-03-22 47.5 0 7 1946-03-22 47.4 0 8 1945-03-22 47.1 0 9 2022-03-22 46.8 0 10 1990-03-22 46.4 0 - 1977-03-22 46.4 0