bluewave

As the subtropical ridge expanded northward to the Canadian Maritimes, the flow became more S to SSE. So this has allowed the record high dew points to move into the region during recent summers. At times the result was higher actual temperatures into New England than around NYC Metro. This was due to a more SW flow into those areas. But both our area and New England have experienced the warmest and most humid summers on record summers since 2010.

The historic +13.3 departure in December 2015 marked the shift to much warmer winters. This February is the 16th winter month out of the last 21 with above normal average temperatures. It’s also a record breaking 7th warmer than normal winter in a row since 2015-2016. The new 1991-2020 normal NYC winter average temperature for NYC is 36.2°. So this is the first winter after the increase from the 1981-2010 average of 35.1°. NYC Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Departure 2021-2022 37.1 +0.9 2020-2021 36.1 +1.0 2019-2020 39.2 +4.1 2018-2019 36.3 +1.2 2017-2018 36.2 +1.1 2016-2017 39.3 +4.2 2015-2016 41.0 +6.0

With the record blocking patterns since 2002-2003, we have seen an unprecedented number of seasons when stations from around Newark out to Eastern LI recorded 40” or more of snow. This dramatic increase in snowfall has occurred during a steady increase in winter temperatures. Our older winters with 40”+ peak snowfall amounts used to occur with a NYC average temperature around 32°. But many recent 40”+ seasons featured a NYC average DJF temperature in the 35°-40° range. So this is a new combination of warmth and heavy snow for our area. Seasons since 1950 when at least one station from Newark to Eastern LI recorded 40”+ and the NYC DJF average temperature. 35°+ average temperature seasons bolded 20-21….36.1 17-18….36.2 16-17….39.3 15-16….41.0 14-15…31.4 13-14…32.9 12-13…36.8 10-11….32.8 09-10…33.8 08-09…34.2 05-06…37.3 04-05…35.4 03-04…32.4 02-03…31.2 00-01….33.5 95-96…32.2 93-94…31.2 86-87….34.8 77-78….30.8 68-69….32.9 66-67….34.1 63-64…33.2 60-61….31.7 57-58…33.2 55-56…32.8 Yeah, that’s why we have been getting so much record warmth before or after our best snowstorms since the super El Niño in 15-16. Last December it was 60s before and after our best December snowstorm and -AO in years. May 2020 tied for our latest trace of snow following one of our warmest winters. 17-18 featured 30” of snow in March on Long Island after Newark hit 80° in late February. We had the blizzard in February 2017 a day after the 60s. 15-16 went +13.3 in December followed by the 30” snowstorm in January and new #1 NYC snowstorm. Even before the super El Niño, we were getting occasional patterns like this. Nemo in February 2013 following the very warm first few months of winter. The 11-12 lack of winter after the record snowstorm in late October. The February 2006 NYC #2 snow following one our warmest Januaries on record. The late winter 2005 snowstorms following one of the warmest first 2 weeks of January on record. This is a sea level version of spring in the Rockies where snow and warmth have often occurred together.

The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. ……….EWR…..ISP Dec…+1.5….+1.5 Jan….+1.2…+1.3 Feb….+0.5….+0.5 Mar….+0.4….+0.6 Apr….+0.5…..+0.6 May...+0.6….+0.9 Jun….+0.3….+0.6 Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1 Aug...+0.6….+0.9 Sep….+1.0….+1.3 Oct…..+0.9..+1.4 Nov….+0.2..+0.5

The storm system for tomorrow looks more impressive than the one that we are getting today. A morning warm front with convection. This is followed by the area getting warm sectored with a nice pocket of MUCAPE. Both the mesos and Euro have heavy convection. It will be interesting to see if we can break the inversion like we did last week for some stronger winds and perhaps an isolated spin up. Weaker storm for today Heavy elevated convection on Thursday

For areas that are trying to deploy more renewables, the approval process has stalled out. https://www.bayjournal.com/news/climate_change/more-than-800-solar-projects-in-bay-states-stuck-waiting-for-review/article_71a4375a-af6a-11ec-9071-03d4665eb07b.html The rollout of solar and other renewable energy projects that Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia are counting on to end fossil-fuel reliance is caught up in a review bottleneck that is severely hampering the transition. In those three Chesapeake Bay drainage states, 807 utility-scale, commercial rooftop, community solar and solar storage projects have been stuck in a growing regulatory traffic jam. Proposals have been waiting a year and often longer for PJM Interconnection, the organization that coordinates electricity transmission in 13 states and the District of Columbia, to complete the required studies that would move the projects forward. Across PJM’s region, about 2,500 solar, solar storage and wind energy projects are awaiting a decision on whether they can connect to the electricity transmission network. Although that number will likely drop for a variety of financing and logistical reasons, the backlog has slowed the rollout of renewable projects, and delays can cause some projects to fail. The slowdown comes at a time when each of the three major Bay watershed states, like many others, have adopted aggressive climate-change mitigation policies that rely on renewable energy. The combined solar projects waiting in line, if built, could power an estimated 5.6 million homes. At present, existing solar sites in the three states produce enough power for about 128,000 homes. PJM is responsible for ensuring that the transmission grid can handle any new electricity added to the mix. It has the authority to require new projects to build equipment and upgrade transmission systems so that the grid has enough power at any moment to keep the lights on in homes and businesses during any kind of weather. As part of that evaluation, PJM considers how the proposed power generation would affect the grid. In the last four years, PJM has signed off on 725 renewable energy projects from a long line of applicants. To help relieve the backup, PJM is planning to develop a streamlined review process intended to dramatically shorten the study period. But that overhaul could take two years. In the meantime, PJM is delaying new applications for two years, and it’s proposing a two-tiered process to handle projects already in the pipeline. The projects deemed most “shovel ready” would be fast-tracked, according to PJM. That would total about 450 of the total 2,500 backlogged projects in all states. Those less ready, for whatever reason, would have to wait until the new review process is in place, which may not be until late 2025. For them, a determination of whether they can hook into the electric grid may not come until 2027. PJM’s plan, which needs approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, has widespread support from the company’s 507 voting members, which include power utilities, transmission line owners, renewable energy developers, financial traders, state consumer advocates and others. Support for pressing pause Despite the prospect of further delays for many projects, PJM said that Bay watershed states will be able to meet the renewable energy goals they have set to help address climate change. “We have met with the states, including Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia, that have aggressive goals,” said Kenneth Seiler, PJM’s vice president of planning. “We are very well-positioned to facilitate the interconnection of renewable generation and help the states meet their goals out into the future. “Had we not done anything, there would be limited opportunities for the states to achieve their goals. We are trying to be the voice of reason here.” The states, though not happy about the current impediments, agree. Pausing the process and creating new rules to speed the more-ready projects in the queue we hope will break the logjam and reduce process congestion in the future,” said Jamar Thrasher, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania Energy Office. “We also hope that the pause will be shorter than anticipated.” The suspension of new project reviews comes at a time when demand for solar energy is growing. Solar made up more than half of all new electricity generated in the United States during the first three quarters of 2021, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie, a global energy consultant. Most of the renewable projects in the PJM queue are solar. Virginia in 2020 set a goal of achieving 100% clean electricity by 2050. It has 416 backlogged projects, enough to power 3.7 million homes, according to PJM. In 2021, the state ranked fourth in the nation in new solar installations. But since 2016, at least 225 solar projects have dropped out of the PJM waiting list. “We need the ability for projects to come into the queue and get built,” said Harry Godfrey, executive director of Virginia Advanced Energy Economy, a business coalition seeking affordable clean energy. “Otherwise, that is a short– and long-term problem for Virginia in meeting its clean economy goals.” Pennsylvania has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions 26% by 2025 and 80% by 2050. It has 443 solar projects awaiting approval in the PJM queue. That’s enough to power approximately 1.4 million homes. Maryland, which aims to get 50% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030, with a minimum of 14.5% from solar power, has 48 solar projects in line, enough to power 410,000 homes. Roots of the problem PJM has long operated by managing grid access for a relatively small number of large and centrally located power plants. But the nonprofit corporation found itself overwhelmed by the surge of smaller renewable-energy projects, many located in rural areas away from population centers and needing a way to tap into the grid. Based in Valley Forge, PA, PJM is the largest of 10 transmission operators in the U.S. It oversees more than 84,000 miles of transmission lines and serves more than 65 million people in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey and Ohio, as well as parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and North Carolina. But its review staff of engineers and other specialists couldn’t keep up as new proposals were filed — with applications tripling in three years. PJM has been expanding staff and hiring consultants to aid with reviews.

Renewables like solar and wind require far more space per watt than fossil fuels do. https://governorswindenergycoalition.org/the-u-s-will-need-a-lot-of-land-for-a-zero-carbon-economy/ Wind farms, solar installations and other forms of clean power take up far more space on a per-watt basis than their fossil-fuel-burning brethren. A 200-megawatt wind farm, for instance, might require spreading turbines over 19 square miles (49 square kilometres). A natural-gas power plant with that same generating capacity could fit onto a single city block.

The Euro has over 2.00 “ across the area with a storm on Wednesday and another on Thursday.

Yeah, 2002 was the last time that NYC had water restrictions. The occasional drier intervals since then have been mostly nuisance level that have resolved rather quickly.

The super El Niño in 15-16 really changed up the blocking patterns. We used to get stronger winter blocking that weakened during the spring. Now the weaker winter blocking gets stronger in the spring. After the event in 15-16 Before

The SPV was just too strong this winter. We could have used this strat warming and SPV weakening months earlier. Blocking this late in the season is cool and rainy rather than snowy.

Suffolk beat Sussex this year in 21-22 snowfall challenge. Very progressive pattern kept the storm track further east. Last winter the tucked in blocking storm track allowed Sussex to win. Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 38.3 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 38.0 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 37.7 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 37.0 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 33.8 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 33.6 RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 31.5 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 30.9 Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE CoCoRaHS 28.0 WANTAGE TWP 1.6 SE CoCoRaHS 27.3 SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 27.3 MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 26.1 VERNON TWP 1.7 N CoCoRaHS 23.9 NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 21.9 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 21.7 Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 64.8 NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 63.9 SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 63.7 MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 63.5 SPARTA TWP 3.3 NW CoCoRaHS 61.0 Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 46.1 MOUNT SINAI COOP 41.3 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 39.3 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 38.2 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 37.8 CENTERPORT COOP 36.7 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 35.4 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 33.5

The latest extended EPS has only a brief relaxation of the blocking for mid month before it reloads again by the 18th. Apr 4-11 Apr 11-18 Apr 18-25

Public opposition to renewable energy is one of the biggest hurdles that needs to be overcome for wider acceptance. Projects are being blocked all over the country. Land use conflicts are a growing concern since solar and wind use so much land. Several environmental groups are actually fighting against the power transmission lines needed here in the Northeast. They just closed the Indian Point nuclear plant that supplied about 25% of the energy for NYC. Now emissions have gone up and NYC has to rely more on natural gas. The electric bills surged for NYC this January which had to use very expensive natural gas this winter. So this energy transition is going to be quite a challenge. https://climate.law.columbia.edu/content/opposition-renewable-energy-facilities-united-states More than 100 ordinances have been adopted in 31 states blocking or restricting new wind, solar, and other renewable energy facilities, and more than 160 of these projects have been contested in 48 states. Columbia Law School’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law issued a report documenting these instances of local opposition to renewables. https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-lawmakers-con-edison-utility-bills-price-hike-20220209-uv7d734ag5frnlpkpwrqjhbkgu-story.html City and state lawmakers are amped up over a sudden rate spike that many New Yorkers are now seeing on their Con Ed energy bills — charges that could make it impossible for some to afford rent and their utilities. Brandy Bora, a corporate executive who rents a loft in Greenpoint, said her family’s Con Ed bill shot up from $300 in December to $850 last month — an increase, which, if sustained, will mean they’ll eventually be forced to move.

Looks like a wet week coming up. There is still a bit of spread on the exact storm tracks and rainfall amounts. I wonder if the missing balloon soundings have degraded some of the model output?

It will be interesting to see how long the mid month more spring-like pattern can last. The week 3 EPS and GEFS try to bring back some blocking around the 20th. While there will still be a SE Ridge, it could mean occasional back doors and stalled frontal zones between the warmer days. We’ll get some hints when the new extended EPS comes out tomorrow. April 18-25 EPS April 20th GEFS

The higher elevations are the place to be if you like snow in April. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albany NY 454 AM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022 NYZ047-051-058-063-031800- Schoharie-Western Albany-Western Greene-Western Ulster- 454 AM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022 ...Wet Snow for Higher Terrain Areas Today... A period of wet snow, potentially becoming moderate to heavy at times, is expected today in the higher terrain areas of the eastern Catskills, Helderbergs and Schoharie County from approximately 8am to 2pm. While areas as low as 1000 feet in elevation could see coatings of snow, elevations mainly 1500ft and higher may see snow accumulations ranging 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts near 4 inches in the highest peaks. This may result in slippery travel conditions and motorists are encouraged to use caution if traveling.

The last El Niño couldn’t couple in 18-19 due to how warm the WPAC was. The most recent 3 year La Niña was 98-99, 99-00, and 00-01. But that followed immediately after the super El Niño in 97-98. Weather twitter seems very unsure on what happens with the ENSO going into next winter.

Kind of mixed signals coming from the Tropical Pacific. While the La Niña was strengthening back in March, it has begun to weaken again. The past analogs are all over the place for next winter. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2022-la-niña-update-three-bean-salad Also, La Niña three-peats (triple dips?) are very rare—only two exist in our more reliable historical record going back to 1950 and both occurred after major El Niño events, which our current event did not. The time evolution of the Niño-3.4 index for the two La Niña three-peats is featured in the darker blue lines in the image below. It is also interesting that out of the eight double-dip La Niñas in our historical record, three ended up evolving into an El Niño for the third winter (red lines) and the remaining three ended up on the cooler side, close to La Niña thresholds, but were ultimately classified as ENSO-neutral winters.

We could pick up over 2.00” of rain with multiple events by the 10th.

Yeah, it was the driest JFM on record for several locations in the West.

Out of season is the new in season. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/11/14/tornadoes-connecticut-longisland-november/ Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 341 PM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022 ...Preliminary Survey Results for Tornado Near Hilltown Township and Bedminster Township in Bucks County Pennsylvania... The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly NJ is finishing a storm survey for the area near Hilltown Township and Bedminster Township in Bucks County Pennsylvania. The survey is in relation to the severe thunderstorms that moved through the area on March 31 2022. A tornado was determined to have occurred Thursday evening in the area near the Souderton Road and Dublin Pike intersection near the line between Hilltown and Bedminster Townships. The tornado was determined to be an EF1 with estimated maximum wind speed of 100 mph. A final assessment including path length and other results of the survey is expected to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information Statement by early this evening. The storm survey information will also be available on our website at http://www.weather.gov/phi

It was with the special marine warning. Enough MUCAPE above the inversion. So the stronger winds were able to mix down with the very heavy downpours.

The megadrought continues in the West.

Areas like PA that get frequent snow squalls could probably use a VSL system like they have in other parts of the country. https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/speedmgt/ref_mats/fhwasa12022/chap_6.cfm In order to provide an in-depth analysis of the VSL systems and to obtain additional information on their use in wet weather and issues related to sight distance and stopping distance, various States with active VSL systems were interviewed. These States were chosen from the list of known U.S. installations of VSLs, which can be found in Appendix B, based on their relevance to the purpose of this guide, the level of experience each governing agency had with VSL systems, and the agency's willingness to share detailed information about their systems. The States below have VSL systems that currently incorporate weather conditions in their speed-setting criteria. 6.1 Alabama Alabama DOT (ALDOT) currently operates a VSL system on a 7-mile section of Interstate 10 in Mobile, Alabama. The section of roadway where the VSL system is implemented previously had a very high number of vehicle accidents due to visibility issues caused by fog. Following a very severe crash in 1995 involving 193 vehicles, ALDOT chose to deploy this low visibility warning system. The VSL system collects data from remote vehicle detectors, fog detection devices, and visibility sensors. The visibility sensors use forward-scatter technology and are installed roughly every mile. The data is reviewed by the TMC operators, who then manually change the speed limit based on the existing weather and traffic conditions. The operators use charts that detail what the posted speed limit should be based on driver visibility. The speed limits are changed in increments of 10 mph within the range of 35 to 65 mph. The system controls a total of 24 VSL signs, but is divided into six zones, in which the speeds in each zone can be set independently. Table 1 below shows the speeds and other strategies based on visibility distance (19 https://www.roadsbridges.com/lake-effect In Lake County, Ohio, winter weather spells trouble for a stretch of I-90 between S.R. 528 and S.R. 44. Over a 10-year span, more than 800 winter crashes were recorded along this corridor. On Dec. 8, 2016, an intense snow band that produced massive squalls contributed to a bus crash that led to a multi-car pileup of more than 50 vehicles, a scene all-too familiar to local responding agencies that witnessed a remarkably similar incident in December of the previous year. Northeastern Ohio is no stranger to winter weather, where areas of Ashtabula, Geauga and Lake counties can see more than 100 in. of snowfall annually. Unique to regions surrounding the Great Lakes, lake-effect snow can deposit more than 1 in. per hour, drastically reducing visibility and resulting in rapid accumulation. Lake-effect snow occurs when fronts of cold air pass over warm bodies of water. The location of I-90 along Lake Erie’s shore makes it a prime candidate for lake-effect squalls, known to surprise even the most experienced drivers. “Drivers experience a rapid change in weather and road conditions,” explained Lake County Sheriff Daniel Dunlap, regarding winter on I-90. “After driving 60 to 70 mph on relatively clear roadways, they basically come to a curtain of snow. Over a distance of 3-4 miles, [accumulation] can go from very little snow to well over a foot of snow.” After much discussion, partnering agencies agreed that a 10-mph speed-limit reduction was the first step in encouraging drivers to understand the unique threat that snow squalls posed in this corridor. Finding a fix Looking for a quick way to reduce the risk and severity of multi-car and secondary crashes, on January 2017 the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT) temporarily reduced the 70-mph stretch of I-90 between S.R. 91 and Vrooman Road to 60 mph through April 1. Ongoing discussions with the Lake County Sheriff and Ohio State Highway Patrol made it apparent that speed was a high contributing factor to severe winter crashes. Speed data from the day of the December 2016 crash showed that even after entering the lake-effect snow band, vehicles had continued to travel in excess of 70 mph. While the seasonal 10-mph speed-limit reduction on I-90 through Lake County caught the attention of the highway’s frequent travelers and local media, critics questioned its effectiveness. On days where no winter weather was predicted during the three-month period of the temporary reduction, commuters found themselves frustrated by the lowered speed limit. At the time, the Ohio Revised Code only allowed for the use of variable speed limits (VSL) within construction work zones. Interest in establishing a VSL corridor grew as local agencies and motorists discussed the safety of the corridor. “If we can get people to slow down, that will give them more reaction time when there’s a crash ahead,” said Ohio State Highway Patrol Lt. Charles Gullet. “I definitely feel [variable speed limits] will be a step in the right direction to reduce crashes in that area.” Legislation was passed in Summer 2017 that gave ODOT the go-ahead to move forward with designing a VSL corridor on I-90 between I-71 and the Ohio and Pennsylvania border. The limits of the project were narrowed to the stretch of I-90 between S.R. 44 and S.R. 528, a span that once saw 11 to 50 crashes per snow event—some that were multi-vehicle pileups. With only a few months to install the new system before winter began in Ohio, ODOT was tasked with the challenge of showing the public that change was on the way. Plans for the new VSL corridor were finalized and sign fabrication began. In preparation for the upcoming snow and ice season, temporary VSL signs similar to those used in work zones were placed in four eastbound and four westbound locations on I-90.