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bluewave

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Everything posted by bluewave

  1. The mid-latitude marine heatwaves being driven by the 500 mb ridge expansion have been preventing a shift to -AMO.
  2. That is a grid resolution issue so don’t take those 80s to 90s lines near the coast literally. Most spots like JFK will probably top out in the 90s before the sea breeze kicks in. Could be 20-30 mph southerly gusts by 2-5 pm.
  3. Double-dip -PDO as the mid-latitude SSTs continue to run near record warm levels.
  4. Models still on track for 95° to around 100° on Friday away from the shore with severe storms late to cool things down.
  5. We’ll see if Newark can pull off their first 100° reading on July 25th this Friday. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=98&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJ6026&month=9&var=high&thres=100&dir=above&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
  6. Yeah, I remember that from living there. Long Beach made the decision a long time ago to use their beaches for revenue from people coming from NYC and other towns on Long Island. This has lead to overcrowding in Long Beach especially on summer weekends and holidays. Atlantic Beach is much quieter with a town beach for residents and private beach clubs. Those beach clubs cater to people from the 5 towns and Garden City. They are very expensive memberships and only limited to a relative small number of members. So they don’t see the congestion that Long Beach gets. Lido has residents only and the Town of Hempstead beach for those residents. A hidden gem down there in Nickerson Beach when there is an amazing bird colony. Some of the premier wildlife photographers go there to photograph. Also numerous rare bird sightings from the local birdwatchers. I think Don would enjoy it with the beautiful photography that he does.
  7. Mostly a tree growth issue since NJ had 100° heat during the last week of July back in 2005. But it’s been a lull period in recent years for 100° heat. More 100s before that week and a few after since then. Data for July 25, 2005 through July 31, 2005 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 103 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 103 Newark Area ThreadEx 101 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 NEW LISBON 2N COOP 101 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 100 ELIZABETH COOP 100 HARRISON COOP 100
  8. What ends up happening at many locations is that they alternate between extreme heat and extreme flooding. We saw a microcosm of this global pattern with the 103° to 105° heat back in June in our area. Then the recent severe flooding centered just inland from the coast around our area. Now multiply this across the entire Northern Hemisphere this summer to see the scope of what is going on.
  9. We have been seeing both an increase in extreme high temperatures and flooding across the Northern Hemisphere this summer. That’s why the global average temperatures and moisture content is so high. Even our area experienced record moisture content with record dew points and PWATS. Plus we just saw the highest June temperatures ever recorded for the month of June at many spots. This month has seen the highest July Dew points on record for many spots. Plus record low temperatures. The all-time highs this month for maximum temperatures have been on other continents. So these daily global temperatures are a great marker for the record local heat and rainfall extremes since a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture.
  10. I know in Long Beach that they depend on the beach traffic for the local businesses. Especially combined with NYC people coming off the trains. Atlantic Beach and Lido Beach have many fewer commercial businesses. So they don’t see the same type of beach attendance that Long Beach does.
  11. It may not be a pure Ambrose Jet in the strictest sense. Could be a hybrid with approaching front enhancing the local sea breeze in the NY Bight Friday. In any event, Southerly flow events have been dominating westerly flow events with the ridge east of New England last decade. From 2010 to 2013 the sea breeze circulations were frequently interrupted by ridging in the Great Lakes. Out of all my years living in Long Beach, I never saw another sea breeze shut off like during 2010. Some of the worst beach traffic in Long Island history.
  12. This Friday will probably be the last 100° day for the warm spots around the area during the next 2 weeks as the ridge retrogrades back to the Rockies. July 21-28 July 28- August 4
  13. We did have the brief -WPO last February. But it couldn’t mute the influence of the subtropical ridge from the EPAC into the Atlantic. Perhaps that raging Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet and record WPAC warm pool loads the dice for more +WPOs.
  14. Temperature difference between NJ and Long Island. So it’s unlikely JFK sees 100° on Friday. Saturday will have a frontal passage to deal with. So more clouds and convection chances again for the weekend. South Shore beaches could see strong rip currents and 30+ mph SSW gusts Friday.
  15. Pretty strong Ambrose Jet on Friday keeping the LI temps down compared to NJ especially South Shore.
  16. Yeah, I am thinking that both could be related. Since the WPAC has been rapidly warming under that expanding subtropical ridge building into the mid-latitudes. On the Atlantic side it has been causing the -AOs and -NAOs to link with the Southeast Ridge. So it’s been muting the influence of the recent -EPOs, +PNAs, -WPOs, -NAOs, and -AOs. It causes storms to cut or hug instead of taking the traditional benchmark tracks. Leaves no room for trough development under the ridges. Since we just get a continuous ridge from the subtropics up into the Arctic.
  17. The only common thread between 10-11 and 24-25 was the La Niña mismatch. That’s why I mentioned that big caveat in my post that there were other things much different than 20-21, 17-18, and 10-11. A main reason we had the record 60”+ snows around NYC from 12-26-10 to 1-27-10 was the -NAO retrograding back west boosting the PNA enough to put us in business. You will notice we hardly snowfall during most of December and February when the PNA was so negative. That was the greatest 33 days of winter that I ever had the privilege to experience on Long Island. Unfortunately, things have shifted so much that I would be happy these days to get one third those amounts even in a whole season let alone one month. Hopefully, we can get some type of bounce off this record low snowfall pattern since 18-19 before we close out the 2020s.
  18. I posted this the other day. Only a very small area around San Francisco has seen the cooler temperatures. Fits the recent theme of the cooler areas covering much less real estate against the record warmth in the Northern Hemisphere this summer.
  19. I linked it up yesterday showing that the mismatch analogs would be colder than what the Euro was forecasting for last winter. But in this warmer climate they probably wouldn’t be as cold as previous mismatch years. That turned out to be correct since last winter was one of the warmest on record for past instances when those parameters were met back in the colder climate.
  20. There would be no confusion if you asked me yesterday since I keep a record of which days they were posted on. Like…Hey can you direct me to your forecast ideas from last winter? I would have said sure and directed you to the posts from last October. My snowfall outlooks were in the NYC Metro forum.
  21. Try asking me a question first rather than telling me what you think my forecast was. It will make things run much more smoothly. I actually like it when people ask me questions.
  22. Again, I do put out all my seasonal forecasts and ideas. But I like to weave them into the ongoing threads and discussions to keep them topical. This forum would become very hard to read if everyone was starting threads for their own individual ideas.
  23. We already have plenty of threads in these forums. So I don’t feel the need to start a thread for every new thought or forecast. Your ideas of what is an acceptable posting and forecasting style seem pretty rigid to me.
  24. I issue multiple ongoing forecasts so again you are just making stuff up.
  25. My forecasts are released in an ongoing style. So just because it doesn’t meet your approved format means little to me. Maybe your actual forecasts would improve if you took more time to understand the actual climate than hurl insults.
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