bluewave

65° along the South Shore beaches with the sea breeze after a high of 71°. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=F3143&unit=0&timetype=GMT

The 71° dewpoint at SMQ could be the earliest on record. It’s currently the 4th highest on record for the month of May. Looks like their May record is 74°. Somerville SUNNY 80 71 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=SMQ&var=max_dwpf&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=2000%2F01%2F01&edate=2000%2F12%2F31&month=may&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The leaf transpiration on top of the NYC ASOS is doing its job. 1000 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park MOSUNNY 67 65 93 CALM 30.06F FOG LaGuardia Arpt PTSUNNY 70 64 81 NW6 30.02F Kennedy Intl MOSUNNY 72 66 81 NW8 30.03F HAZE Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 75 67 76 CALM 30.03S

With the dewpoint pooling along the sea breeze front today, we may be able to approach the highest dewpoint records for May.

The dense fog this morning was predicted by the models and we were discussing it. The HRRR forecast from yesterday is below showing the dense fog for this morning.

Starting the day with dense fog around the area. So a continuation of the marine influence theme. The higher dewpoints will help to boost the heat indices.

This was the heaviest downpour of the whole year so far here in SW Suffolk. But the winds were light. Best looking MCS structure in a while.

Impressive looking warned cell SW of Reading.

The RGEM looks more realistic into the same areas that have the tornado watch.

The forecasts soundings for Eastern PA would support tornadoes later.

This MCS looks like it will be more impressive than the storms on Monday were. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NAMSFC4_6z/rloop.html

The models haven’t been the greatest recently. So we have been seeing quite a bit of run to run variation. It may be related to the record La Niña for this time of year and developing -IOD.

The West becoming drier while the East gets wetter is part of the long term trend. So the precipitation response is different while the whole CONUS warms. Some studies show the drought spreading into the Plains in the future. But they are still wet in our area.

The warmth around Christmas has been more memorable than Memorial Day in recent years.

Still looks like too much wavelength volatility for any extended warm ups just yet.

Looks like this will be the 2nd year in a row with the weekend before Memorial Day being warmer. New run Old run

High temperature records are increasing quickly also. Just look at how many daily high temperature records have been set since 2010. JFK is the only station lagging a bit in the summer due to the stronger onshore flow since the super El Niño. But it has been making it up with all the new dew point records. https://threadex.rcc-acis.org

People will be able to save money now since they won’t have to pay for weather model subscriptions to access the long range EPS.

The GEM has the most extreme temperature gradient of all. Strong sea breeze and cooler temperatures east of the Hudson. Has highs of 95-100° in NJ.

Why can’t we take it seriously? It reached 102° at the end of June in Corona Queens. So the 103° at Newark reflected it being a degree warmer in NE NJ than Queens.

Last May into June was another famous post 2010 big temperature swing. It was the latest 52° high temperature at the end of May for Newark. Followed up by the earliest 103° high temperature at the end of June. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2021 05-29 (2021) 52 11-14 (2021) 48 168 1961 05-27 (1961) 49 10-15 (1961) 51 140 1967 05-25 (1967) 48 11-05 (1967) 47 163 1957 05-20 (1957) 52 10-26 (1957) 48 158 1976 05-19 (1976) 52 10-17 (1976) 50 150 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 2021 06-30 (2021) 103 06-30 (2021) 103 0 1966 07-03 (1966) 105 07-03 (1966) 105 0 1949 07-04 (1949) 105 07-04 (1949) 105 0 1999 07-05 (1999) 103 07-05 (1999) 103 0 2010 07-06 (2010) 103 07-06 (2010) 103 0 1993 07-07 (1993) 103 07-10 (1993) 105 2

Long Island severe thunderstorms with straight line winds or hail usually peak in July and August. But some years like 2019 the peak is in late June.Tornados have a later peak from August to recently November. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=171&opt=ugc&station=OKX&state=NY&_ugc_state=NY&ugc=NYC103&phenomena=SV&significance=W&cmap=Reds&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The EPS first guess for the Memorial Day weekend is much warmer than last year.

We will need for the debris clouds from earlier convection to clear the areas closer to NYC for a better chance of convection later. We’ll have to see if convection can fill in as that clear area over SE PA moves Northeast. The main focus right now is from NE PA up into NY State.

LGA and NYC still haven’t reached 80° yet. So the first 80° day is a month late. This much onshore flow is pretty unusual for our area in May. The purple colors below are near record levels of easterly flow for May. First/Last Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 03-26 (2021) 09-25 (2020) 134 Mean 04-21 10-06 167 Maximum 05-20 (2019) 10-20 (2021) 207 2021 03-26 (2021) 82 10-20 (2021) 80 207 2020 05-03 (2020) 81 09-25 (2020) 80 144 2019 05-20 (2019) 89 10-02 (2019) 95 134 2018 04-13 (2018) 82 10-11 (2018) 80 180 2017 04-16 (2017) 88 10-10 (2017) 81 176 2016 04-18 (2016) 80 10-19 (2016) 86 183 2015 05-04 (2015) 82 09-29 (2015) 83 147 2014 05-10 (2014) 82 09-28 (2014) 84 140 2013 04-09 (2013) 81 10-04 (2013) 86 177 2012 04-16 (2012) 85 10-05 (2012) 80 171 2011 04-26 (2011) 80 10-10 (2011) 82 166 2010 04-07 (2010) 91 09-29 (2010) 80 174 First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 03-26 (2021) 09-10 (2020) 129 Mean 04-16 09-30 166 Maximum 05-10 (2014) 10-19 (2016) 183 2021 03-26 (2021) 82 09-18 (2021) 84 175 2020 05-03 (2020) 80 09-10 (2020) 82 129 2019 04-19 (2019) 80 10-02 (2019) 93 165 2018 04-13 (2018) 82 10-10 (2018) 80 179 2017 04-11 (2017) 80 10-10 (2017) 81 181 2016 04-18 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 85 183 2015 04-18 (2015) 80 09-29 (2015) 83 163 2014 05-10 (2014) 83 09-28 (2014) 84 140 2013 04-09 (2013) 82 10-04 (2013) 86 177 2012 04-16 (2012) 88 09-14 (2012) 80 150 2011 04-11 (2011) 81 10-10 (2011) 81 181 2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 89 170