bluewave

Philadelphia international airport is south of the more urbanized parts of Philly and it can get a cooler breeze since it’s right in one of the wider stretches of the Delaware River. Data for January 1, 2022 through August 17, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 40 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 40 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 40 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 39 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 37 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 36 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 34

Yeah, many lawns around here look like the one on the right.

Maybe we can get just enough rain the next few weeks to avoid a drought upgrade to D3. Parts of the area are currently the driest since 2016. The region hasn’t seen a D3 level of drought since 2002.

Temperatures back to near 90° the next few days as one of our warmest summers on record continues. Many of local stations are still in the top 3 warmest with a few weeks to go. So it just goes to show how warm our summers have become since 2010 with numerous top 10s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 79.3 14 2 1993 79.2 0 3 2010 78.7 0 4 1994 78.5 0 5 2021 78.3 0 6 2011 78.0 0 7 2005 77.8 0 8 1988 77.7 0 9 2020 77.6 0 - 2016 77.6 0 - 1973 77.6 0 10 1999 77.1 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1995 75.1 43 2 1999 74.3 7 3 2022 74.2 15 4 1983 74.0 1 5 2010 73.8 2 6 2016 73.7 0 7 2020 73.4 0 8 2005 73.2 2 - 1966 73.2 0 9 1952 73.1 0 10 2018 73.0 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2022 76.0 14 - 2015 76.0 0 4 2011 75.8 0 5 2020 75.7 0 6 1983 75.6 0 7 1984 75.4 0 8 2012 75.3 0 - 1991 75.3 0 9 1971 75.2 0 - 1949 75.2 0 10 2005 75.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 74.7 0 2 2022 74.6 14 - 2020 74.6 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 6 2019 73.8 0 7 2021 73.7 0 8 2018 73.5 0 - 2005 73.5 0 9 2013 73.4 0 10 2012 73.3 0 - 1991 73.3 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76.4 15 2 2010 76.3 0 3 1900 76.1 0 4 2005 75.9 0 5 1898 75.8 0 6 2020 75.6 0 7 1901 75.5 1 8 2016 75.4 0 - 1999 75.4 0 9 2021 75.1 0 - 1949 75.1 0 10 2011 74.8 0 - 1899 74.8 0

You know it’s not going to happen when the GFS is the only model showing the furthest west capture like with Joaquin in 2015 and other coastal events before a big shift east.

Less development in the MDR and more close in action around the Bahamas and Gulf of Mexico.

We may have a better shot at convection than anything tropical affecting the East Coast in the next few weeks. The GFS has been too strong recently with the tropical waves coming off Africa. It can’t seem to handle the influence if all the dry air over the MDR. This is one of the slowest starts to the hurricane season due to all the sinking air out there. So we may have to wait until September for the subtropics to compensate for the lack of deep tropical development.

There are some hints at a gradual pattern change to more rainfall opportunities in the coming weeks. The drought ridge sitting in the Plains all summer is forecast to shift. So we get into more of a WAR pattern heading into September. So looking like our classic early September endless summer pattern with plenty of 80s and 90s and convection chances.

We are probably headed for a drought monitor upgrade with the 90s making a return tomorrow into Friday for the usual warm spots.

First time that Newark had back to back 40+ days of 90°. The 40 days of 90°+ ties the NJ state current leader board with Hightstown and South Jersey regional airport. Places like LGA and POU are near the top in NY as the tree growth causes NYC to fall further back in the pack. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2022 40 137 - 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 Data for January 1, 2022 through August 17, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 40 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 40 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 40 Newark Area ThreadEx 40 Data for January 1, 2022 through August 17, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 27 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 26 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 26 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 26 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 26 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 25 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP 23 SHRUB OAK COOP 22 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 22 Albany Area ThreadEx 22 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 20 ELMIRA COOP 20 WHITEHALL COOP 20 MILLBROOK 3 W WBAN 20 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 19

Even the lockitin account on twitter took notice of the recent over-amped GFS solutions.

With a few weeks to go, Newark is still in 1st place for driest summer just ahead of 1966. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 3.57 15 2 1966 4.46 0 3 1949 5.68 0 4 1957 5.69 0 5 1965 5.83 0 6 1963 6.18 0 7 1993 6.20 0 8 1953 6.47 0 9 2010 6.74 0 10 1999 6.93 0

We haven’t had any 100° days after August 19th in the post-2010 climate period. But the warm spots like Newark have averaged 1-2 days of 95° or above. The average number of 90°+ days later in the season is 5-6. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Aug 20 to Oct 2 Missing Count 2021-10-2 3 0 2020-10-2 0 0 2019-10-2 1 0 2018-10-2 5 0 2017-10-2 0 0 2016-10-2 1 0 2015-10-2 3 0 2014-10-2 2 0 2013-10-2 1 0 2012-10-2 0 0 2011-10-2 0 0 2010-10-2 4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Aug 20 to Oct 2 Missing Count 2021-10-2 7 0 2020-10-2 4 0 2019-10-2 5 0 2018-10-2 8 0 2017-10-2 4 0 2016-10-2 9 0 2015-10-2 8 0 2014-10-2 5 0 2013-10-2 4 0 2012-10-2 3 0 2011-10-2 0 0 2010-10-2 10 0

The Southern Plains will finally get a break in the record breaking heat. Our first closer to normal temperatures in a while this week. Then the models have a warm up for the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods. Summer to date Forecast for the 2nd half of August

Looks like Islip is down to 59°. This is the first 50s there since late June. So the streak of 60° of warmer minimums made it to 50 days which is the 8 longest. MacArthur/ISP PTCLDY 59 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 74 2020-08-30 2 63 1967-08-31 3 62 2015-08-28 4 61 2003-08-23 5 58 2005-09-05 6 55 2006-08-11 - 55 1994-08-05 7 52 2014-08-14 8 50 2022-08-13 - 50 2016-08-22

Yeah, the GEM had the late January snowstorm from a week out while the other models were OTS. The GFS seldom verifies when it’s the only amped up global model. We need one of the better models showing an amped up solution for it to work out. The 12z UKMET was east also. We’ll see if the GEM or Euro can come west in later runs. We probably have until the 0z or 12z runs tomorrow for a shift back west if it’s going to happen.

The RGEM and GEM are east. Always wary of amped up GFS and NAM runs when the other models don’t agree. It would be more interesting if the Euro or Canadian came on board in later runs.

The last 2 years were top 5 wettest over the same period. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 12 Missing Count 1 2020-08-12 12.92 0 2 2007-08-12 12.31 0 3 1978-08-12 11.06 0 4 2021-08-12 11.04 0 5 2003-08-12 10.59 0

Newark only has 1.17 of rain since July 1st which is the driest on record. Farmingdale is at 1.00 and is the driest for this period also. We’ll need to start getting some rain soon in order to avoid getting another drought upgrade. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 13 Missing Count 1 2022-08-13 1.17 1 2 1998-08-13 1.53 0 3 1966-08-13 1.76 0 4 1932-08-13 1.78 0 5 1999-08-13 1.92 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 13 Missing Count 1 2022-08-13 1.00 1 2 2002-08-13 1.25 3 3 2011-08-13 1.46 3 4 2010-08-13 2.24 0 5 2013-08-13 2.57 2

The numerous ongoing marine heatwaves are competing with the La Niña for influence.

Closer to average temperatures feel cool compared to how warm it has been. Looks like the near normal pattern will continue this week. Then back to above normal temperatures by next weekend into late August.

This is the first time that the tropics have been so quiet from July into mid-August since 1999. We also had a hot and dry summer here that year. Maybe we could get a tropical soaker like Floyd in September this year.

Freehold-Marlboro and Somerset Airport have had 5-6 days reaching 100° like Newark this summer. But they are in more rural areas. Several NYC micronet stations have 5 days reaching 100° also. Data for January 1, 2022 through August 12, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 6 Newark Area ThreadEx 6 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 6 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 5 HARRISON COOP 4 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 2 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 2 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 1 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 1 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 1 NYC Micronet…100° days since July 20th Brownsville…..5 days Corona…………5 days South Ozone Park…..2 days Howard Beach …..1 Fresh Kills……1

Those were the days before the tree growth around the castle. So NYC could reach 100° nearly as often as Newark. It was also the era when 100° heat happened more frequently in August. Since 2010, most of our 100° days have been in June and July. The 100° heat this August was a first for the record warm post 2010 climate. Monthly Data for August 1944 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 5 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 5 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 4 NY SCARSDALE COOP 4 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 3 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3 CT NORWALK COOP 2 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 2 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 2 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 2 NY SUFFERN 2 E COOP 1 NY WEST POINT COOP 1 NY FARMINGDALE 2 NE COOP 1 CT BRIDGEPORT COOP 1 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 1 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 1 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 1 NJ PATERSON COOP 1 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS COOP 1 CT COLCHESTER 2 W COOP 1 Monthly Data for August 1948 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 3 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 3 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 3 NJ RUTHERFORD COOP 3 NJ PATERSON COOP 3 NY WEST POINT COOP 3 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 3 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 2 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 2 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 2 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 2 NY HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY COOP 2 NY MINEOLA COOP 2 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 2 NY FORT SCHUYLER COOP 2 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 2 CT NEW LONDON COOP 2 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 1 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 1 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 1 NY OSSINING SING SING COOP 1 NY WALDEN 2 NE COOP 1 NY FARMINGDALE 2 NE COOP 1 CT NORWALK COOP 1 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 1 CT DANBURY COOP 1 NY SCARSDALE COOP 1 NY CARMEL COOP 1 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 1 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 1 CT WESTBROOK COOP 1 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 1 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 1 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 1 CT NORWICH COOP 1 CT BALTIC COOP 1 Monthly Data for August 1949 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 3 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 3 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 3 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 3 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 3 NJ RUTHERFORD COOP 3 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 3 NJ PATERSON COOP 3 NY WEST POINT COOP 2 NY WALDEN 2 NE COOP 2 CT NORWALK COOP 2 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 2 CT WATERBURY CITY HALL COOP 2 NY SCARSDALE COOP 2 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 1 NY HEMPSTEAD MALVERNE COOP 1 NY HEMPSTEAD MITCHELL FIELD AFB WBAN 1 CT GREENWICH COOP 1 NY CARMEL COOP 1 Monthly Data for August 1953 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 4 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 4 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 4 NY WEST POINT COOP 3 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 3 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 3 NJ PATERSON COOP 3 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 2 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 2 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 2 NY SUFFERN 2 E COOP 1 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 1 NY SCARSDALE COOP 1 NY WALDEN 2 NE COOP 1 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 1 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 1 Monthly Data for August 1955 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 4 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 3 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 3 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 3 NJ PATERSON COOP 3 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 2 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 2 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 2 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 2 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 2 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 2 NY SUFFERN 2 E COOP 1 NY WEST POINT COOP 1 NY WALDEN 2 NE COOP 1 NY HEMPSTEAD MALVERNE COOP 1 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 1 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 1 NY NEW YORK FLOYD BENNETT FIELD WBAN 1 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 1 NY CARMEL COOP 1

New Brunswick and Newark are having their 2nd warmest summer on record through August 10th. JFK, ISP, LGA, and HPN are in 5th place. Nantucket and Blue Hills Observatory are in 1st place.. Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2010-08-10 76.9 0 2 2022-08-10 76.0 0 3 1999-08-10 75.8 0 - 1898-08-10 75.8 0 4 2020-08-10 75.7 0 - 1949-08-10 75.7 0 5 2011-08-10 75.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2010-08-10 79.5 0 2 2022-08-10 79.4 0 - 1994-08-10 79.4 0 3 1993-08-10 79.2 0 4 2011-08-10 78.9 0 5 2020-08-10 77.9 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2010-08-10 77.8 0 2 2011-08-10 76.4 0 3 1983-08-10 75.9 0 4 1949-08-10 75.8 0 5 2022-08-10 75.7 0 - 2020-08-10 75.7 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2010-08-10 75.3 0 2 1999-08-10 75.2 0 3 2020-08-10 74.6 0 4 2011-08-10 74.4 0 5 2022-08-10 74.2 0 - 2019-08-10 74.2 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 79.7 0 - 2010-08-10 79.7 0 2 1999-08-10 78.2 0 3 2006-08-10 78.1 0 4 1994-08-10 77.9 0 5 2022-08-10 77.8 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 1995-08-10 76.0 38 2 1999-08-10 75.0 4 3 2010-08-10 74.6 1 4 1983-08-10 74.0 1 5 2022-08-10 73.7 0 - 1949-08-10 73.7 4 Time Series Summary for NANTUCKET MEMORIAL AP, MA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2022-08-10 70.5 0 2 2021-08-10 69.7 2 3 1949-08-10 69.0 0 4 2010-08-10 68.9 0 5 1979-08-10 68.5 10 Time Series Summary for BLUE HILL COOP, MA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2022-08-10 73.0 0 2 1949-08-10 72.5 0 3 2010-08-10 72.4 4 4 2020-08-10 72.3 0 5 1999-08-10 72.1 0