bluewave

Yeah, the Northern Hemisphere land areas are steadily warming during the summers. The Western sections of North America and the Northeast US are among the fastest warming parts of our continent. The rate of warming is even higher in Europe.

The amount of shear and lack of development in the Atlantic so far is more like the super El Niño in 82-83 than a La Niña. It will be interesting to see how much of an increase in activity there is as we approach the peak of the season in September. It may take tropical activity here to finally begin reducing the drought conditions.

Newark is still pretty close to the top for the driest summer on record at just under 5 inches. Several spots out across the Long Island South Shore are also this dry. So this most recent rainfall event continued the theme of only widely scattered heavier totals. It will probably take a tropical system in the fall to get widespread soaking rains. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 4.43 9 2 1966 4.46 0 3 1949 5.68 0 4 1957 5.69 0 5 1965 5.83 0 6 1963 6.18 0 7 1993 6.20 0 8 1953 6.47 0 9 2010 6.74 0 10 1999 6.93 0 MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 4.85 MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 5.35 WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.53 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 3.80 SAYVILLE 0.2 SE CoCoRaHS 3.85 PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 3.90 ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.94 BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.02 SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.07 COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 4.18 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 4.28 ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 4.29 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 4.41 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 4.54 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 4.57 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 4.60

Many recent Septembers have been averaging over 70° making it the 4th month of summer. So fall doesn’t really get started until October now. Then we have been having numerous 40°+ Decembers making it more like the 3rd month of fall.

80s with sun now across the area. So another day with high temperatures beating guidance. Newark is at the 2nd lowest number of summer days under 80° so far. This could make it 3 consecutive years with a top 5 lowest number of days under 80°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature < 80 Missing Count 1 1994 6 0 2 2022 8 10 3 2021 11 0 - 2016 11 0 - 2011 11 0 - 1993 11 0 4 2020 12 0 - 2008 12 0 - 1966 12 0 5 2015 14 0 - 2010 14 0 - 1995 14 0 - 1991 14 0

High temperatures approaching 80° now on the South Shore with breaks of sun.

The unusually strong -IOD could be playing a role also.

The drought is unusually widespread across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere land and oceans this summer.

Yeah, it won’t take much for the 90° heat to return in a few days with how dry it has been.

It will take a tropical system to bring some drought relief area wide with how large the current rainfall deficit is.

Warmer than average temperatures on the EPS through the Labor Day weekend.

Still a top 3 warmest summer from SE PA into New England with 10 days to go. Several stations have had 3 consecutive top 5 warmest summers since 2020. So a continuation of our much warmer summers pattern since 2010. Time Series Summary for LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 76.3 0 2 2021 76.2 0 3 2022 75.8 11 4 2011 75.7 0 5 2018 75.4 0 - 2005 75.4 2 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 79.6 0 2 2022 79.2 11 3 2016 78.8 0 4 1995 78.5 0 5 2020 78.3 0 - 1994 78.3 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 76.3 0 2 2022 76.1 13 - 1900 76.1 0 3 2005 75.9 0 4 1898 75.8 0 5 2020 75.6 0 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76.7 12 2 2020 76.5 4 3 1999 76.3 7 4 2010 76.1 2 5 2021 75.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 79.2 11 - 1993 79.2 0 2 2010 78.7 0 3 1994 78.5 0 4 2021 78.3 0 5 2011 78.0 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 74.7 0 2 2020 74.6 0 3 2022 74.5 11 - 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 75.4 11 2 2020 74.9 2 3 2010 74.3 0 4 2021 74.2 0 5 2019 74.0 0 Time Series Summary for NANTUCKET MEMORIAL AP, MA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 71.0 11 - 2021 71.0 2 2 1978 69.0 0 3 2020 68.8 0 4 2015 68.7 0 - 2010 68.7 0 - 1949 68.7 0 5 2012 68.3 1 - 1975 68.3 0

The convection riding north of l-80 and the LIE has been really consistent this summer.

The hurricane drought in the Atlantic may continue for another week.

If Newark can pull off .75, then it will be the first time since June 9th. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Date, Precipitation 2022-06-01, 0.54 2022-06-02, 0.15 2022-06-03, T 2022-06-04, 0.00 2022-06-05, 0.00 2022-06-06, 0.00 2022-06-07, 0.05 2022-06-08, 0.02 2022-06-09, 0.78 2022-06-10, 0.00 2022-06-11, T 2022-06-12, 0.06 2022-06-13, 0.00 2022-06-14, T 2022-06-15, 0.00 2022-06-16, 0.39 2022-06-17, 0.00 2022-06-18, 0.00 2022-06-19, 0.00 2022-06-20, 0.00 2022-06-21, 0.05 2022-06-22, 0.07 2022-06-23, T 2022-06-24, 0.00 2022-06-25, 0.00 2022-06-26, 0.00 2022-06-27, 0.29 2022-06-28, 0.00 2022-06-29, 0.00 2022-06-30, 0.00 2022-07-01, T 2022-07-02, 0.00 2022-07-03, 0.00 2022-07-04, 0.00 2022-07-05, 0.04 2022-07-06, 0.00 2022-07-07, 0.00 2022-07-08, 0.12 2022-07-09, 0.00 2022-07-10, 0.00 2022-07-11, 0.00 2022-07-12, 0.00 2022-07-13, 0.00 2022-07-14, 0.00 2022-07-15, 0.00 2022-07-16, 0.09 2022-07-17, 0.06 2022-07-18, 0.07 2022-07-19, 0.00 2022-07-20, 0.00 2022-07-21, 0.01 2022-07-22, 0.00 2022-07-23, 0.00 2022-07-24, 0.00 2022-07-25, 0.03 2022-07-26, 0.00 2022-07-27, 0.00 2022-07-28, 0.12 2022-07-29, 0.01 2022-07-30, T 2022-07-31, T 2022-08-01, 0.43 2022-08-02, 0.00 2022-08-03, 0.00 2022-08-04, T 2022-08-05, T 2022-08-06, 0.00 2022-08-07, 0.04 2022-08-08, 0.00 2022-08-09, T 2022-08-10, 0.00 2022-08-11, 0.15 2022-08-12, 0.00 2022-08-13, 0.00 2022-08-14, 0.00 2022-08-15, 0.00 2022-08-16, 0.00 2022-08-17, 0.11 2022-08-18, 0.00

The actual number of 90° days in Central Park is probably closer to 30 away from the deep shade trees around the castle. NYC used to almost always have 30 days of 90° when Newark reached 40 days. This was when the equipment was out in the open instead of under the trees. The years before the tree growth took off after 2002 featured NYC running much closer to Newark with just 10 or fewer 90° days. This number has increased to 18-24 fewer days since 2016. I am a bit surprised the big media outlets in NYC haven’t taken notice of this growing differential in their weather reports. They would realize how inaccurate the NYC high temperatures have become. Years before tree growth bolded Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NYC 90° Days 1 2010 54 37….-17 2 1993 49 39…-10 3 1988 43 32….-11 4 2022 42 20….-22 5 2021 41 17….-24 - 2002 41 32….-9 - 1991 41 39….-2 8 2016 40 22….-18 - 1983 40 36…..-4 - 1959 40 27……-13

Highs near 95° today at the usual NJ warm spots.

We may get just enough rain on Monday for Newark to fall into 2nd place on the driest summer list. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 3.68 13 2 1966 4.46 0 3 1949 5.68 0 4 1957 5.69 0 5 1965 5.83 0 6 1963 6.18 0 7 1993 6.20 0 8 1953 6.47 0 9 2010 6.74 0 10 1999 6.93 0

The tropics finally become more active on the extended EPS from late August into early September. But the storms look to exit Africa pretty far north away from the drier air to the south. Any systems would need a strong enough ridge to the north to avoid an early recurve. There is also the potential for closer in development north of 20N. A tropical system is probably what it would take to begin reducing the drought. Scattered frontal convection can only do so much. Unless it’s a more organized system like mid-August 2011.

Newark moves into 4th place on the 90° day list. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2022 42 135 5 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 6 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0

I guess it’s tough to know how the record injection of water vapor into the stratosphere influences blocking without a model study. But the seasonal models are all going for a south based block next winter. The caveat is that the long range blocking forecasts can be low skill. Maybe they are keying in on that record warm pool across the North Atlantic and putting the ridge there.

We’ll need the 70s dewpoints and tropical PWATS to enhance the rainfall potential on Monday.

This year will rank high on the top 10 list for 90° days in NJ. Several stations from CNJ to NNJ already surpassed 40 days. It’s the seasonal average for BWI in Maryland. Data for January 1, 2022 through August 19, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 41 Newark Area ThreadEx 41 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 40 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 40 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 39 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 37

It has been the default pattern since the super El Niño in 15-16. But it shifted this summer. The drought and heat ridge over the Plains this summer was different from the typical WAR pattern. More 100° heat and less rain. The Atlantic ridge shifted over closer to England giving them the all-time record heat. Now the return of the WAR may allow for better rainfall chances. With the La Niña, it raises questions for the winter forecast. A big ridge sitting east of New England will continue the warmer winter pattern that has been in place since 15-16. But the snowfall will come down to how much blocking we get. We got both in 20-21 as blocking was more south based. Plains ridge dominated during the summer Ridge east of New England returns and possibly better rainfall potential

EPS has a warmer than average pattern into early September. Matches up with the near record NW Atlantic SSTs. So this could be a preview of the fall pattern like we have seen in recent years.