bluewave

The persistent mid level dry layer continues on the HRRR. So the convection weakens as it comes east.

2017 was our last summer with near average temperatures and a below normal number of 90° days. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/2801/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 Near normal and cool years bolded Year JJA……NYC boroughs and Long Island…Northern New Jersey 2021….+1.1….+1.2 2020…+2.6….+2.9 2019…+1.5…..+1.8 2018…+1.7……+1.8 2017…..+0.2….0.0 2016….+2.5….+2.5 2015….+1.4…..+0.8 2014…..-0.1…..-0.1 2013….+1.2…..+1.3 2012…..+1.7…..+1.7 2011…..+2.2…..+1.8 2010….+3.9…..+3.4 2009….-0.6…..-0.6 2008….+1.2……+1.4 2007…..+0.3…..+0.6 2006…..+1.7……+1.6 2005…..+2.6…..+3.3 2004…..-0.3….-0.6 2003…+0.4….+0.4 2002…..+1.6….+2.3 2001…..+0.7…..+0.6 2000…..-1.2…..-1.3 1999…..+2.7…..+2.9 1998….+0.7…..+0.7 1997….-0.3……-0.8 1996…..-0.6….-0.4 1995….+1.4…..+1.8 1994….+1.5…..+1.8 1993….+1.4…..+1.3 1992….-2.0…..-2.3 1991…..+1.8…..+1.7 Data for January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2017 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 25 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 25 NJ HARRISON COOP 23 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 22 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 17 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 17 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 14 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 13

With a few days to go, Newark is tied for the warmest summer. Freehold-Marlboro is also in 1st place. ISP is 2nd warmest. HPN is either 2nd or 3rd warmest since too many days are missing from 1995 to get an accurate average. JFK is currently ranked 3rd warmest. We can also see how most of the top 10 warmest summers have occurred since 2010. With a few days to go, Newark is tied for the warmest summer. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 79.2 2 - 1993 79.2 0 2 2010 78.7 0 3 1994 78.5 0 4 2021 78.3 0 5 2011 78.0 0 6 2005 77.8 0 7 1988 77.7 0 8 2020 77.6 0 - 2016 77.6 0 - 1973 77.6 0 9 1999 77.1 0 10 1995 77.0 0 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76.7 5 2 2020 76.5 4 3 1999 76.3 7 4 2010 76.1 2 5 2021 75.6 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 74.7 0 2 2022 74.6 2 - 2020 74.6 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 6 2019 73.8 0 7 2021 73.7 0 8 2018 73.5 0 - 2005 73.5 0 9 2013 73.4 0 10 2012 73.3 0 - 1991 73.3 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1995 75.1 43 2 1999 74.3 7 3 2022 74.0 3 - 1983 74.0 1 4 2010 73.8 2 5 2016 73.7 0 6 2020 73.4 0 7 2005 73.2 2 - 1966 73.2 0 8 1952 73.1 0 9 2018 73.0 0 10 2012 72.9 0 - 1949 72.9 8 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2022 76.1 2 4 2015 76.0 0 5 2011 75.8 0 6 2020 75.7 0 7 1983 75.6 0 8 1984 75.4 0 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1991 75.3 0 10 1971 75.2 0 - 1949 75.2 0

Once the June blocking weakened, it was off to the races for the temperatures in July and August.

Dueling record heat ridges in the NW and NE in August. But the heat was very extensive across the US this summer. Texas finally got a break after the record June and July heat.

Norfolk CT up in the Litchfield Hills is even more impressive at over +1.0° above the previous warmest August. That’s a +5 departure for that location. You can see the warmest departure area of +5 extending into Dutchess County. Time Series Summary for NORFOLK 2 SW, CT - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 72.4 3 2 2018 70.9 0 3 2001 70.5 4 4 2016 70.2 0 5 2021 69.8 0 6 2005 69.4 0 - 1955 69.4 0 7 2003 69.3 0 - 1973 69.3 0 8 2020 69.1 0 - 1998 69.1 2 - 1988 69.1 2 9 2015 68.7 0 - 2012 68.7 0 - 1947 68.7 3 10 2002 68.6 10

All the #1 warmest August records around the region will continue to add up to a top 3 or 5 warmest summer for many. So we continue the theme of numerous top 5 to top 10 warmest months and seasons since 2010. This summer will make it 3 in a row for several locations.

This is the first time that Newark had over 20.00” one summer and under 5.00” the next.

The record warm pool and ridging east of New England has been having a big impact on our local climate. It’s especially obvious this month with the record warmth in the Northeast. This pattern has been a major factor in all the record warmth since the +13.3 December 2015.

This has been the warmest August on record at EWR, HPN, ISP, POU, PHL, and BDL. Notice how many top 10s there have been in recent years. So it gives us an idea how fast our climate is warming up around the region. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 80.6 4 2 2005 80.4 0 3 2021 80.0 0 4 2016 79.9 0 5 1988 79.7 0 6 1973 79.6 0 7 2018 79.2 0 - 1993 79.2 0 8 2001 79.0 0 9 2015 78.7 0 10 1995 78.5 0 - 1980 78.5 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76.8 5 2 2016 76.1 0 3 2018 75.8 0 4 1983 75.6 0 5 2005 75.0 0 6 1970 74.9 5 - 1959 74.9 0 - 1955 74.9 1 7 2015 74.5 0 - 2001 74.5 0 8 2021 74.4 1 9 1995 74.2 7 10 1980 74.0 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 77.8 4 2 1980 77.4 0 3 2016 77.3 0 4 2005 77.0 0 5 2018 76.7 0 6 2021 75.9 0 7 2015 75.7 0 - 1998 75.7 0 8 2001 75.6 0 9 2020 75.3 0 10 1988 75.0 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76.7 4 2 2005 75.5 0 3 1939 75.4 1 4 2016 75.2 0 5 1973 75.1 0 6 2018 74.9 0 7 1947 74.8 0 8 2021 74.7 0 - 1938 74.7 0 9 2001 74.3 0 - 1955 74.3 0 10 2020 74.1 0 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 81.1 4 2 2016 81.0 0 3 1980 79.9 0 4 2001 79.8 0 - 1995 79.8 0 5 2005 79.6 0 6 2002 79.5 0 7 2021 79.2 0 8 1978 79.1 0 9 2018 79.0 0 - 2015 79.0 0 - 2010 79.0 0 10 1991 78.9 0 Time Series Summary for Hartford Area, CT (ThreadEx) - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76.8 4 2 1973 76.4 0 3 2018 75.9 0 - 2016 75.9 0 4 1939 75.3 0 5 2001 75.2 0 6 2005 75.1 0 7 2021 74.8 0 8 2020 74.6 0 - 1937 74.6 0 9 1988 74.5 0 10 2003 74.3 0

This is the first consecutive 80° months at EWR and only the second time for LGA. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jul Aug Season 2011 82.7 76.9 79.8 2022 82.6 80.5 81.6 1993 82.5 79.2 80.9 2010 82.3 77.7 80.0 1994 81.9 75.7 78.8 2013 80.9 74.7 77.8 2020 80.8 77.7 79.3 2012 80.8 77.6 79.2 1999 80.8 76.2 78.5 2019 80.6 76.2 78.4 1955 80.5 77.7 79.1 1988 80.4 79.7 80.1 2002 80.0 77.9 79.0 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jul Aug Season 2020 82.9 79.7 81.3 2010 82.8 78.6 80.7 1999 81.9 76.4 79.2 2019 81.5 77.6 79.6 2013 81.2 75.8 78.5 2022 81.1 80.9 81.0 2016 81.1 81.6 81.4 1955 80.9 78.7 79.8 1966 80.8 77.7 79.3 2006 80.7 78.1 79.4 1994 80.6 75.3 77.9 2012 80.4 78.7 79.6 2011 80.4 76.0 78.2 1952 80.4 75.3 77.9 2008 80.0 75.0 77.5 1993 80.0 77.4 78.7

The July and August numbers are even lower. Only 1.00”-2.00” of rain over one of the warmest July into August periods dried the vegetation out very fast. These totals are in the range of what is considered a wet July- August for Las Vegas. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 31 Missing Count 1 2022-08-31 2.03 5 2 1932-08-31 3.42 0 3 1980-08-31 3.70 0 4 1966-08-31 3.97 0 5 2015-08-31 4.09 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 31 Missing Count 1 2022-08-31 1.94 5 2 2005-08-31 2.35 0 3 1972-08-31 2.45 0 4 1966-08-31 2.91 0 5 2015-08-31 3.22 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 31 Missing Count 1 2022-08-31 1.00 6 2 2013-08-31 2.62 2 3 2010-08-31 2.93 0 4 2015-08-31 3.58 1 5 1999-08-31 4.00 33 Time Series Summary for BRIDGEHAMPTON, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 31 Missing Count 1 2022-08-31 1.65 7 2 2005-08-31 2.01 1 3 1995-08-31 2.37 0 4 1966-08-31 2.61 0 5 1936-08-31 2.66 0 20th wettest July and August in Las Vegas Time Series Summary for Las Vegas Area, NV (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 31 Missing Count 1 1984-08-31 3.47 0 2 1955-08-31 3.29 0 3 1957-08-31 3.00 0 4 1979-08-31 2.90 0 5 1941-08-31 2.68 0 6 2012-08-31 2.45 0 7 1999-08-31 2.43 0 8 1970-08-31 2.37 0 9 1945-08-31 2.08 0 10 1976-08-31 1.95 0 11 2003-08-31 1.91 0 12 1954-08-31 1.89 0 13 1942-08-31 1.77 0 14 1956-08-31 1.64 0 15 1950-08-31 1.63 0 16 1977-08-31 1.38 0 17 1961-08-31 1.33 0 18 1991-08-31 1.32 0 19 1983-08-31 1.31 0 20 2022-08-31 1.29 5

Numerous locations are in the top 5 for 80° days through 8-26. https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Jan 1 to Aug 26 Missing Count 1 2022-08-26 71 1 2 2010-08-26 69 0 3 2012-08-26 66 1 4 2020-08-26 65 2 - 2018-08-26 65 0 - 1976-08-26 65 1 5 2011-08-26 64 0 6 2021-08-26 63 0 - 2019-08-26 63 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Jan 1 to Aug 26 Missing Count 1 2016-08-26 75 0 2 2015-08-26 74 3 - 2010-08-26 74 0 3 1991-08-26 70 4 4 2022-08-26 69 3 5 2018-08-26 68 0 - 2007-08-26 68 0 - 1966-08-26 68 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Jan 1 to Aug 26 Missing Count 1 2010-08-26 73 0 2 1991-08-26 72 0 3 2022-08-26 70 0 4 2011-08-26 66 0 5 2018-08-26 65 0 - 2016-08-26 65 0 - 1998-08-26 65 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Jan 1 to Aug 26 Missing Count 1 1994-08-26 95 0 2 1991-08-26 94 0 3 2010-08-26 93 0 - 1993-08-26 93 0 4 2021-08-26 90 0 - 2015-08-26 90 0 5 2022-08-26 89 0 - 2011-08-26 89 0 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Jan 1 to Aug 26 Missing Count 1 1944-08-26 90 3 2 2022-08-26 89 13 - 2010-08-26 89 3 - 1939-08-26 89 1 3 2016-08-26 88 2 4 2021-08-26 87 0 - 2015-08-26 87 2 5 1957-08-26 86 0

Numerous stations from SE PA into New England are having another top 5 warmest summer.

Some moisture entrainment from the potential tropical system would be our best chance of a widespread soaking event. But these forecast tracks before a system actually develops are very low skill. Plenty of amplitude to the pattern with the SE Ridge/WAR linking up with the -NAO block. So the continuing above normal temperatures will dry things out even more without a significant rainfall event.

Newark still the driest summer on record with a few days to go. As we follow the driest conditions along the South Shore JFK is 2nd driest. ISP comes in at 4th driest. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 4.43 6 2 1966 4.46 0 3 1949 5.68 0 4 1957 5.69 0 5 1965 5.83 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1966 3.89 0 2 2022 5.14 5 3 1999 5.56 0 4 1965 5.68 0 5 1993 5.71 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1966 3.67 0 2 2005 3.74 0 3 1988 4.52 0 4 2022 4.75 5 5 1993 4.91 0

High of 93° at Newark away from the sea breeze. This is the 46th day reaching 90° as 2022 moves up to 3rd place. Last year was the only time that a 40+ day season had more inches of snow than 90° days. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Seasonal Snowfall 1 2010 54 47.9 2 1993 49 28.8 3 2022 46 17.9 4 1988 43 22.8 5 2021 41 45.7 - 2002 41 3.6 - 1991 41 21.5 6 2016 40 32.6 - 1983 40 31.0 - 1959 40 17.8

Continuation of the same summer theme here in SW Suffolk. Brief shower with the sun out during the light rain. So the ground is already starting to dry.

These were considered 1000 year events in our old climate. But they may actually be 10 to 100 year events in our warmer climate. So NOAA may be doing an update on the criteria soon.

The 12z EPS is correcting stronger with the WAR/SE Ridge through the Labor Day weekend. So a continuation of our 90°+ pattern on the warmer days. Some hint that a tropical system could make it close to the Bahamas or Gulf after Labor Day. That may be our best chance at something more than the hit or miss convection which has been dominating.

An unusually strong westerly flow pattern cut off the sea breeze circulation. So places even out to Mineola in Western Nassau had over 50 days reaching 90°. It also allowed several locations in NNJ and Long Island top 105°. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 59 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 54 NY MINEOLA COOP 52 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 51 NJ HARRISON COOP 50 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 48 NJ CRANFORD COOP 46 NY BRONX COOP 45 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 42 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 37 CT DANBURY COOP 37 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 35 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 34 NY WEST POINT COOP 33 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 32 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 106 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106

Another unusually strong +PNA summer for a La Niña. This has become a common occurrence in recent years. We used to get stronger -PNA patterns with our summer La Ninas. So maybe some of this +PNA can carryover into the fall and winter. We saw the out of place strong +PNA during January last winter with the La Niña. Same thing happened for the 20-21 La Niña winter when the +PNA went against expectations. So these competing marine heatwaves must be shifting the traditional La Niña PNA response around. Another +PNA summer like recent years 2022 Recent La Niña summers Older La Niña summers used to be -PNA

Several stations in NJ are over 40 days of 90° so far which is a top 2 to 4 highest. NY sites are approaching 30 days at LGA and POU. So another season with a strong onshore flow keeping the highest temperatures west of the Hudson closer to NYC Metro. Data for January 1, 2022 through August 24, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Newark Area ThreadEx 44 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 44 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 44 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 42 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 42 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 40 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 2022 44 129 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 52 7 2 2018 48 7 3 2021 43 0 4 2022 42 142 - 2016 42 4 Data for January 1, 2022 through August 24, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 32 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 29 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 29 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 29 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 29 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 29

Record high of 91° tied at Islip. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 445 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT ISLIP NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 WAS TIED AT ISLIP NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 91 SET IN 1969. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

We have hit 100° in late August and early September when the patterns have supported extreme heat. Numerous mid to upper 90s in recent years. So this year all our top 3 warmest heat was focused from late July into early August. Newark top 3 daily highs from late August into early September 8/25 97 in 1993 96 in 2021 96 in 1948+ 8/26 103 in 1948 97 in 2021 97 in 1993 8/27 100 in 1993 99 in 1948 96 in 2021+ 8/28 102 in 1948 100 in 1993 100 in 1973+ 8/29 100 in 1953 97 in 1948 96 in 2018+ 8/30 100 in 1953 98 in 1973 96 in 1991 8/31 102 in 1953 98 in 2010 97 in 1973 9/1 98 in 2010 96 in 1953 95 in 1980+ 9/2 105 in 1953 98 in 1980 97 in 1944 9/3 100 in 1993 95 in 2018 95 in 2015 9/4 95 in 2018 95 in 1973 95 in 1964 9/5 94 in 1985 94 in 1961 92 in 1973 9/6 98 in 2018 97 in 1983 95 in 2014 9/7 95 in 2015 93 in 2010 92 in 1945 9/8 98 in 2015 94 in 1939 93 in 2010+