bluewave

The blocking builds further south closer to the record warm pool east of New England. So it’s less warm instead of cool pattern like we got during the 20-21 winter. Before the warm pool, a strong -NAO and -AO was also accompanied by much cooler temperatures.

We have been able to avoid any major 95°+ heat this month due to the record south based blocking. This has allowed all the record heat to remain in the Western US. So only one day in the low 90s this month so far at Newark.

Luckily, it’s mostly a soil moisture drought here on the South Shore with brown lawns. It just hasn’t lasted long enough yet for any type of significant water restrictions. Much different situation than the megadrought in the West.

It was just enough rain to prevent and upgrade to D3 drought. We haven’t had that here since 2002. So a continuation of hit or miss storms as has been the theme this summer. All the tropical systems look like they will be fish storms for a while.

These weather statistics for the Blue Hills Observatory are similar to our area. It shows how widespread all these top 5 and 10 warmest months and seasons have been. Also what a big outlier February 2015 was.

This was a North Shore special like all the other events this summer. So the highest drought areas along the South Shore didn't get much relief. It was the typical .25 to .50 event for much of the South Shore. COCORAHS ...Nassau County... Syosset 2.20 in 0840 PM 09/06 CWOP Levittown 1.84 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Oyster Bay 1.53 in 0815 PM 09/06 CWOP Hicksville 1.52 in 0827 PM 09/06 CWOP Muttontown 1.51 in 0840 PM 09/06 CWOP Syosset 1.38 in 0825 AM 09/06 COOP Great Neck 1.15 in 0828 PM 09/06 CWOP Muttontown 0.95 in 0839 PM 09/06 AWS East Hills 0.84 in 0625 PM 09/06 AWS Carle Place 0.81 in 0820 PM 09/06 CWOP Searingtown 0.71 in 0543 PM 09/06 AWS Farmingdale 0.66 in 0815 PM 09/06 CWOP North Merrick 0.63 in 0816 PM 09/06 CWOP North Massapequa 0.55 in 0836 PM 09/06 CWOP North Massapequa 0.52 in 0828 PM 09/06 CWOP Wantagh 0.41 in 0829 PM 09/06 CWOP Herricks 0.37 in 0830 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Valley Stream 0.37 in 0836 PM 09/06 CWOP Atoc - Plainview 0.34 in 0745 PM 09/06 RAWS Wantagh 0.34 in 0835 PM 09/06 NYSM Locust Valley 0.3 E 0.29 in 0845 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Merrick 0.28 in 0825 PM 09/06 CWOP Bellmore 0.25 in 0840 PM 09/06 AWS Suffolk County... Northport 2.03 in 0520 PM 09/06 CWOP Shirley 1.79 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Smithtown 1.63 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Dix Hills 1.61 in 0824 PM 09/06 CWOP Greenlawn 1.59 in 0821 PM 09/06 CWOP Shirley Airport 1.54 in 0814 PM 09/06 ASOS Stony Brook 1.46 in 0835 PM 09/06 NYSM Baiting Hollow 1.24 in 0840 PM 09/06 CWOP Northport 1.6 NNE 1.08 in 0804 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Upton 1.08 in 0944 PM 09/06 Official NWS Obs Kings Park 1.02 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP SMITHTOWN 0.98 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Miller Place 0.97 in 0825 PM 09/06 CWOP Stony Brook 0.94 in 0839 PM 09/06 CWOP Patchogue 0.87 in 0836 PM 09/06 CWOP North Patchogue 0.81 in 0829 PM 09/06 CWOP Centerport 0.80 in 0700 AM 09/06 COOP Blue Point 0.80 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Ridge 0.78 in 0835 PM 09/06 CWOP Blue Point 0.76 in 0837 PM 09/06 CWOP 3.6 NE Calverton 0.75 in 0500 PM 09/06 COOP Sayville 0.71 in 0839 PM 09/06 CWOP Blue Point 0.69 in 0835 PM 09/06 CWOP Montauk Airport 0.67 in 0754 PM 09/06 ASOS Islip Airport 0.65 in 0756 PM 09/06 ASOS Fishers Island 0.62 in 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Nys Portable No. 1 0.57 in 0754 PM 09/06 RAWS West Islip 0.57 in 0824 PM 09/06 CWOP Remsenburg 0.57 in 0825 PM 09/06 CWOP Orient 0.57 in 0838 PM 09/06 CWOP Sagtikos Parkway 0.55 in 0625 PM 09/06 AWS Westhampton Airport 0.55 in 0753 PM 09/06 ASOS Mount Sinai 0.53 in 0400 PM 09/06 COOP West Babylon 0.53 in 0828 PM 09/06 CWOP N. Babylon 0.52 in 0840 PM 09/06 CWOP 1 WNW Wading River 0.51 in 0835 PM 09/06 AWS Brookhaven 0.50 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Farmingdale Airport 0.42 in 0800 PM 09/06 ASOS East Hampton 0.42 in 0829 PM 09/06 CWOP Eastport 0.41 in 0445 PM 09/06 RAWS Southold 0.41 in 0835 PM 09/06 NYSM North Babylon 0.37 in 0822 PM 09/06 CWOP East Setauket 0.37 in 0838 PM 09/06 CWOP Southold 0.34 in 0825 PM 09/06 CWOP St James 1.7 W 0.33 in 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Northport 0.27 in 0836 PM 09/06 CWOP West Gilgo Beach 0.25 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP 1 NNE Watermill 0.25 in 0840 PM 09/06 AWS

Temperatures gradually warming up next few days and peaking in the upper 80s on Saturday. Then a closed low approaches for early next week. So that will be our next chance for convection.

Scientists will look back on 2007-2012 as when the Arctic shifted to a whole new climate state defined by persistently low multiyear ice. So none of the slower melt years like this one could reach pre-2007 extent years above 6.00 million sq km. But the faster melt years like 2020 couldn’t surpass the 2012 minimum. It’s more of a static pattern over the last 10 years.

It’s easier to get big time droughts in the Western US which has well defined dry season. If those areas don’t do well during the winter rainy season, then the summer heat and less rainfall really dry things out. At least we get closer to uniform precipitation across all our seasons. So if one season is lacking, then things can rebound during the next season. It results in shorter dry periods. We haven’t had widespread D3 drought since 2002. But even that drought was much less severe than the current 1200 year megadrought in the West.

A welcome break from the major heat of this summer coming up. High pressure will become established over New England next several days with onshore flow. So the warmer spots will eventually return to 80s which isn’t very extreme by recent September standards. Then a closed low will approach from the west next week and bring another round of scattered convection.

Great job by several models in showing for days that there will be a relative dry slot between the two waves of low pressure.

Another big swing from drought to over 10.00” in Cranston, RI like we have seen recently in other parts of the country.

The second batch of of heavy rain may be our best shot as per the 12z HRRR. But there may be a bit of a dry slot for spots between the two areas. Hard to know until nowcast time. Maybe the models are overdoing the dry slot and we get more of a filled in look joining the band to the north and south.

Today may be the last shot in a while at upper 80s to around 90 for the warm spots in NJ. Unusually strong -NAO for early September will cool things down going forward. So expect more comfortable highs in the 70s this week before 80s return by next weekend.

Strongest warm pool on record for this time of year east of New England. That spot is turning into a hurricane magnet recently with Danielle an the forecast for Earl. Pretty impressive record SST warmth surrounding the small area of La Niña cooler SSTs.

The 6z Euro is starting to build confidence in our first widespread 1-3 inch rainfall event in a while.

While a few inches of rain would be a start, it’s not enough to be a drought buster. Dry spots like Newark have over a -8.34 inch deficit. The only good news is that droughts haven’t lasted that long here in the last 20 years. Plus, even of bigger droughts in the late 90s and early 00s were nothing like the megadrought currently affecting the West. THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 3 2022... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. PRECIPITATION (IN) SINCE JAN 1 -8.34

It’s pretty wild how far north the record SSTs in the Atlantic extend. So the -NAO is lining up with that anomalous warm pool. But it’s also far enough south to pump the WAR. Tropical systems winding up in that part of the Atlantic are mostly recurving OTS systems. So they don’t do us much good for drought relief since scattered convection can only do so much.

Some good news for the holiday weekend outdoor activities is that the Euro and RGEM are really slowing the front down due to the stronger WAR. So we could see mostly dry conditions into Labor Day. This means that the warm spots with less clouds could tack on another 90° day. It is going to take a very strong -NAO to bring temps back closer to normal for several days following Labor Day. Then upper 80s to around 90° could return next weekend as the blocking relaxes. As usual, the models haven’t been stellar with the rainfall forecasts recently. So we’ll take whatever we can get.

Danielle forming north of the tropics matches the seasonal pattern.

Yeah, maybe we can finally pick up some much needed rainfall next week as we get one of the strongest -NAO patterns for early September. The amounts of rain will come down to where the front stalls out underneath the Canadian high. So the summer heat will take a break next week with some days not getting out of the 70s.

Not much correlation between a top 10 driest July and August at Islip and snowfall the following season. But you can see why the lawns are so brown. Rare combination of warmest and driest June and July on record. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 31 Snowfall for the following season 1 2022-08-31 1.94 ? 2 2005-08-31 2.35 36.0 3 1972-08-31 2.45 4.5 4 1966-08-31 2.91 52.4 5 2015-08-31 3.22 41.4 6 1980-08-31 3.41 20.8 7 1968-08-31 3.51 43.5 8 1998-08-31 3.53 19.4 - 1974-08-31 3.53 14.5 9 1993-08-31 3.58 37.0 10 1981-08-31 3.76 35.4 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 1 to Aug 31 Missing Count 1 2022-08-31 77.4 1 2 2016-08-31 77.1 0 3 2020-08-31 76.5 0 4 2018-08-31 76.1 0 - 2010-08-31 76.1 0 5 1980-08-31 76.0 0 6 2019-08-31 75.9 0 - 2011-08-31 75.9 0 7 1999-08-31 75.8 0 8 2015-08-31 75.7 0 9 2005-08-31 75.6 0 10 1998-08-31 75.5 0

The latest update from the guidance is that Sunday will probably be the warmest day of the holiday weekend. Looks like low 90s ahead of the backdoor that will approach by later in the day.

Warmest summer and 2nd driest at Newark with a day to go. All our other stations are I the top 5 for warmth. With several also among the driest summers. So one of the most significant shutdowns of the tropics in the Atlantic which we heavily rely on for summer rainfall. The Plains drought ridge also played an important role. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 79.2 1 - 1993 79.2 0 2 2010 78.7 0 3 1994 78.5 0 4 2021 78.3 0 5 2011 78.0 0 6 2005 77.8 0 7 1988 77.7 0 8 2020 77.6 0 - 2016 77.6 0 - 1973 77.6 0 9 1999 77.1 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1966 4.46 0 2 2022 4.87 1 3 1949 5.68 0 4 1957 5.69 0 5 1965 5.83 0 6 1963 6.18 0 7 1993 6.20 0 8 1953 6.47 0 9 2010 6.74 0

Not surprising given one of the slowest starts to any tropical season on record. Just goes to show how much we rely on tropical moisture for our summer rainfall. The complete opposite pattern from the last 2 summers. So ENSO isn’t the only show in town with the other competing marine heatwaves.