bluewave

Nino 1+2 is the warmest since the 15-16 super El Niño.

Recent 5 year snowfall less than half the previous 5 year totals. NYC dropped from 42.8” to 16.3”. Islip was even more dramatic dropping from 54.8” to 19.0”. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.3 2.6 4.2 6.6 2.2 T 16.8 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 M 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.0 4.1 16.7 12.2 8.2 1.1 42.3 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.9 2.5 7.3 6.9 1.5 T 19.0 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 T 3.0 1.6 M 5.0 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.1 3.5 23.2 13.4 13.5 1.0 54.8 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7

Great west based block but the La Niña-like strong -PNA allowed allowed it to link up with the SE Ridge.

While the recent downturn in our area since 18-19 isn’t reflected in these charts, northern portions on the US have seen a snowfall increase with a decrease to the south.

For some reason, there is no recent snowfall data for MPO on the NWS and XMACIS2 sites. There are a few co-ops and Cocoharas sites. But there is an incomplete record from any given site. So one year one site is listed and then another site during a different year. So it’s hard to find any extended data for a given site.

It looks like the warming winters are helping their snowfall since the Great Lakes are remaining unfrozen longer.

Yeah, their snowfall has been increasing as winters have been warming. If a warm winter for them is around 20°, then even a low to mid 20s winter in the future could still produce plenty of snow.

Imagine living in a place like Caribou that averages over 100” a year. So even in a warming climate, a place like that should still see significant snow well into the future. It was their 4th warmest winter and they still cleared 100”. Nothing special for them but would be epic for us. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 21.5 0 2 2009-2010 21.1 0 3 2020-2021 20.6 0 4 2022-2023 19.2 0 - 2001-2002 19.2 0 5 2019-2020 17.9 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 2022-2023 109.3 198 2021-2022 123.1 0 2020-2021 107.9 0 2019-2020 151.9 0 2018-2019 165.4 0 2017-2018 137.2 0 2016-2017 129.6 0 2015-2016 94.8 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2007-2008 197.8 0 2 1954-1955 181.1 0 3 2018-2019 165.4 0 4 1981-1982 159.8 0 5 1972-1973 153.0 0 6 2019-2020 151.9 0 7 1968-1969 151.6 1 8 2013-2014 150.7 0 9 1962-1963 147.5 0 10 1976-1977 145.9 0

Yeah, we would average 50”-100” a year if all the more aggressive modeled snowfall verified.

Higher elevations did better. So the big SSW and MJO 8 favored places that could get cold enough for snow.

Mt Pocono had the highest totals in the Mount Holly zones. Data for October 1, 2022 through March 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall PA MOUNT POCONO 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 47.3 NJ HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 43.2 PA LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 42.8 NJ SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 30.2 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 23.3 NJ JEFFERSON TWP 4.4 SW CoCoRaHS 22.5 NJ HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE CoCoRaHS 21.7 NJ WANTAGE TWP 1.6 SE CoCoRaHS 20.5

But you need an extremely cold pattern like we got in 93-94 to make a -PNA gradient pattern work. All the gradients since 15-16 have been too warm for us. So interior New England and Upstate NY did better. Too much SE Ridge has been spoiling our gradients. That’s one of the benefits of cold winters which have been lacking since 15-16. We have more leeway for snow with cold and NYC had potential for near or over 50” on the season. The snowfall gradient was just south of NYC instead of north. Time Series Summary for Avoca Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1994-04-30 90.4 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1994-04-30 53.4 0 Time Series Summary for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1994-04-30 75.2 0 NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 31.0 NJ EWING 3 WNW COOP 39.2 Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1994-04-30 23.1 0 Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1994-04-30 7.8 0

Yeah, I posted a tweet on this area yesterday.

We need a west based -NAO -AO and ridge near the Rockies at the same time for higher 12”+ events in NYC. Overpowering +PNAs can work without a -NAO but eastern sections are favored for jackpots like in January 2015 and 2022 Nemo in February 2013 is probably the most unusual set up with a trough in the West. But eastern sections did best and not NYC. I think the more -PNA kept the phase further east. So it’s a combination of factors and the -PNAs in recent years coincided with the -NAOs to diminish our snowfall potential. Strong - NAOs before 2018-2019 more frequently coincided with +PNAs. Composite of 9 events producing 12”+ in NYC since 2003. West based block near Hudson Bay connecting to ridge in Rockies. Also notice the strong 50/50 low. Unusual Nemo Western Trough but Hudson Bay block is present.

A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. NYC Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9

It was a memorable event for the jackpot zones. One heck of a gradient. So at least the colder zones are still getting the heavy totals which were more common in years past.

The study articulates concerns scientists have harbored since the record low noted in 2007 (and since broken in 2012). At the time, some wondered if it was the beginning of an epic collapse. That didn’t happen, but there was no significant rebound, either. Researchers have been reluctant to be too declarative on potential changes to the Arctic sea ice system as a whole because there is so much variability in ice cover from year to year, Meier said. The new study could change that, he said. “They make a pretty good case and put together a lot of data to say, yes, there is a fundamental change and we’re in this new regime,” Meier said.

At least the record MJO 8 delivered for somebody.

Doesn’t really mean much for snow here if the Pacific remains hostile. Starting to see more of these underperforming -NAOs in recent years. The record warm WPAC and NW Atlantic are just too overpowering.

But the low temperature departures and rankings are similar. We can see this when comparing local stations. The UHI affects the actual temperature difference. We know it’s more pronounced on nights with light winds. Below is the winter average low temperatures. When averaged out for all the lows this past winter, the UHI effect was about 4°-5°. Winter DJF Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 35.2 0 2 2022-2023 34.9 0 3 2015-2016 34.7 0 4 2011-2012 34.1 0 - 1997-1998 34.1 0 5 1931-1932 33.6 0 6 2016-2017 33.5 0 7 2019-2020 33.3 0 8 1998-1999 32.3 0 9 1982-1983 32.2 0 10 1990-1991 32.1 0 - 1952-1953 32.1 0 - 1948-1949 32.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 31.1 0 2 1997-1998 30.9 0 3 2022-2023 30.7 0 4 2001-2002 30.2 0 5 2019-2020 30.1 0 6 2011-2012 29.8 0 7 2016-2017 29.3 0 8 1994-1995 28.9 0 - 1982-1983 28.9 0 9 2012-2013 28.2 0 10 1998-1999 27.9 0 - 1996-1997 27.9 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1997-1998 29.9 20 2 2022-2023 29.4 0 3 2015-2016 29.3 0 4 2001-2002 29.2 0 5 2011-2012 29.1 1 6 2016-2017 29.0 1 7 2019-2020 28.3 2 8 1952-1953 27.7 0 9 1998-1999 27.5 23 10 1996-1997 27.3 24 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 27.2 0 2 1931-1932 25.7 2 3 1936-1937 25.3 2 4 2022-2023 25.2 0 5 2011-2012 25.0 1 6 2019-2020 24.5 0 7 1997-1998 24.4 1 8 2001-2002 23.9 0 9 2016-2017 23.8 0 - 1940-1941 23.8 0 10 1952-1953 23.4 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1931-1932 31.3 0 2 2022-2023 29.6 0 3 1997-1998 29.5 0 4 2015-2016 29.3 0 5 2019-2020 29.1 0 6 1936-1937 29.0 0 7 2016-2017 28.8 0 8 2001-2002 28.7 0 9 1974-1975 28.3 0 10 1952-1953 28.2 0

Moderate to heavy snow in SW Suffolk with a coating on colder surfaces and 32.

Thanks, Bx. I know you are in the rescue business I have a great respect for what you guys do after my numerous trips to the ER with my mom. I met so many great people dedicating their lives to the service of others.

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SE Ridge/WAR has been dominant player since 15-16. In the past, we would get on big year like 1950 and then a relaxation. But it has been a continuing theme for 8 consecutive winters. So something completely new for this region.

The whole forecast comes down to getting the ridge axis in the Rockies. The EPS and GEPS have it with the BM track. But the GEFS has more of a Western Trough and storm track too far west.