bluewave
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Everything posted by bluewave
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Pretty impressive warming this year as each month shows no signs of letting up yet.
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The 0z guidance is 3 to 1 in favor of a wet tropical moisture weekend. The Euro, CMC, and UKMET are wet. While the GFS took its turn as a drier model. The CMC will pull off a big win if we get a decent shot of moisture since it has been the most steady model from run to run showing this. https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/23091900/99.html
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If we can figure out ahead of time when the Euro will be good like today or have poor skill like with Lee then we will really have something. I would love to develop an AI Euro error fixer that would make the Euro always have perfect forecasts.
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It was funny how that 18-19 El Niño composite with a far enough west Aleutian low and great +PNA appeared in December 2020. December +PNA -AO leading to the mid-month epic near 40” jackpot in BGM. Plus the record SSTs to our east gave a nice boost to the snowfall. So I kind of hope we can get a positive surprise like that this winter after expectations got lowered after the last few winters. The one fly in the ointment that December was how far the south based Greenland block built like we have been seeing in recent years. It was great for the BGM snow lovers and the tucked in storm track near SNJ. But it hurt us with the strong height rises east of New England for the late month Christmas flood cutter.
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Yeah, that’s why I am hoping that AI can eventually hone in on which models will be correct in a given situation. Plus the Euro is going to upgrade the resolution to 4 or 5 km in the next few years. Just hoping they they can improve the convective scheme so we can get performance closer to the mesos at times. But not sure how running that kind of resolution beyond 60 hrs on a global rather regional scale will play out yet.
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Yeah, I am very close to the airport near the shore but a bit north of where the Sandy high tides made it to. Areas just to my south flooded. We did the pizza tour recently and I really enjoyed Sally’s and Modern. Enjoying the colder mornings recently than my old area of the South Shore which didn’t radiate very well. The hot days also get tempered a bit here due to the cooling breezes south of I-95.
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We just never know sometimes when the Euro more westerly idea initially will pan out. Some of the mesos caught onto the better rainfall potential in NJ. We’ll see if the Euro idea of a slow moving and wet subtropical storm pans out for next weekend. This time the CMC is stronger, faster, and more amped up. Always a challenge to determine whether we get the slower and weaker low like the Euro shows or the stronger CMC storm. Either way things look wet for a few days as rains could arrive ahead of low with inverted trough feature tucked under 1030 mb high.
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Nice job. My hope is that any forcing near the Dateline can be more dominant so we get some semblance of and El Niño pattern. Even if only sporadically. Give me at least one month with an active STJ +PNA and a weak -AO and I will be happy. I don’t think the seasonal models are good enough to decipher how much coupling we get. We can remember the Euro was adamant on a favorable looking El Niño pattern as late as November 2018. All we need to do this time is have a better MEI response. But the strong MJO 4-6 that December didn’t get things started in an optimal way. Euro forecast for 18-19 Aleutian low far enough west to allow a cold El Niño winter in the East. MJO came right out of the gate strongly into 4-6 on the RMM in December. But you say hey look at that great forcing west of the Dateline. That little forcing cell east of Hawaii imparted a La Niña flavor with the -PNA trough out West. There was just enough forcing further west that December to tilt the scale toward La Niña and it stuck. A westward extension of forcing near the Maritime Continent can shift what otherwise looks like an OK seasonal composite. Overall a very La Niña-like pattern instead of cold El Niño
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I have been doing pretty well here at my new place near KHVN. Got about 1.37 in about 30 minutes a week ago. The whole side of the parking lot flooded to the top of the curb. So the further east you go recently the better you have done. Just hoping I can see a snowstorm up here like Nemo in 2013. Having a major ASOS so close by is a great benefit to knowing my observations with better precision. My little digital indoor outdoor thermometer has been very close to the airport temperature. They may even radiate slightly better there since the ASOS and airport is in a bowl lower than the surrounding area with a big hill a few blocks away. Great little airport but it does flood in heavy rains or big coastal surges.
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Starting to like one of the epic snowstorm tracks for Long Island from 2013 to 2018.
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It’s a challenge to align correctly. But the July 3.4 was 1.03 and the JJ MEI was 0.3. It only increased to 0.4 with 1.31 in august. The trades are stronger in September then they were in August so the +1.6 is really out of step with the previous stronger WWB activity in September 1987 and 1982 west of the Dateline. We will never be able to get an adequate sample size since this year is such an outlier for stronger El Niño readings over +1.5.
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The MEI only goes back to 1979. But there were only 2 years since then with a September Nino 3.4 at around +l.6 like this September so far. The years were 1982 and 1987. But both were very well coupled with much higher MEI than the most recent JA reading. So this may be the biggest MEI mismatch with the actual Nino 3.4 SSTs we have ever seen during an El Niño year. The OHC was also much higher in September 1982 at +1.86 to only +1.18 this month so far. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ 2023….JA MEI…..+0.4….SEP 3.4….+1.6…-1.2 1987…..JA MEI……+1.5….SEP 3.4….+1.6….-0.1 1982…..JA MEI……+1.9….SEP 3.4….+1.5…+0.4
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Seems like whenever these 1030 mb highs move off the New England coast in the early fall there is often a subtropical or tropical system underneath. The CMC is most aggressive with development and track just to our west. Sometimes the CMC will score a coup over the GFS and Euro from a week out like late January 2021. But each case is different so you never know. At least it isn’t the Euro alone with a more amped up run than any model since we would probably automatically toss it with how erratic it has bee in recent years.
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That’s a weak IOD overall effect since the cooling is in too small a geographic area near Java to have much influence outside the region. Notice how much more it suppressed convection over the Maritime Continent back with the record 2018 event compared to today.
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It was easier in the old days before we had to be concerned about the WPAC warm pool. Notice how much warmer the WPAC is now than in 1997. That was also a legit +IOD pattern with the whole Western IO warm and Eastern IO and WPAC cold. Completely opposite of today. Also notice how much warmer now the rest of the oceans are now. So it’s as if the ENSO is getting lost in the mix of global potential forcing regions. So we get these really low RONI and MEI values. Making it more challenging as to which type of 500 mb pattern will occur in the winter.
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It would probably be more useful for seasonal forecasting if they issued seasonal MEI forecasts instead of for 3.4 ONI.
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The question then becomes how does a weak to maybe moderate MEI reading mesh with the WPAC warm pool and what kind of 500 mb pattern does that produce for winter?
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It only seems to be off with storm tracks near the East Coast. The temperature and teleconnection forecasts are pretty good. So not sure how much the crew at the ECMWF modeling center care about our local forecasts. Maybe they are willing to sacrifice some regional storm track reliability to achieve higher overall hemispheric skill scores. We need more modelers on these forums since the forecasters and modelers are two distinct groups.
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Going to need the last two weeks of September to average around +2.1 to +2.4 for the August Euro September forecast of 1.89 and Australian 1.98 to verify. But the stronger trades and weaker OHC won’t support those levels. Everything looks steady for time being. So even if the CFS dip is overdone, we may hold around +1.6 for the September monthly average.
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LGA still remains the undefeated UHI capitol. I also think the ASOS right on the warmer Sound/East River helps. The marshy areas around the EWR and JFK sensors helped them radiate better than LGA and NYC. Lows around NYC NYC…59 LGA….62 JFK….56 EWR…56
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Looks like the warmer minimums for late September will drive the departures with plenty of onshore flow and high pressure to the north. Could get interesting for heavy rainfall if we get some close in tropical development . Highs may get muted if we get a lot of onshore flow, clouds, and moisture. New run stronger blocking high SE Canada Old run
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Really weak subsurface compared to the strongest El Niño’s since 1972. Still no significant WPAC cold pool. So we have the lowest MEI on record for SSTS of +1.6 in 3.4. This continues to raise the issue of another possible weakly coupled or maybe non canonically coupled event. Translation..seasonal models may not have a clue what the actual winter 500 mb pattern will look like. OHC anomalies may struggle to get into the +1.8 to 2.5 range of other really strong events. This also raises the possibility that the official ONI trimonthly peaks under +2.0 and the MEI never gets above +0.8 to +1.2 which is right near the threshold for weak or non canonical coupling.
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The GFS easterly bias helped it win the Lee 5 day forecast challenge.
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Unfortunately, the -SOI isn’t very well coupled with the the winds along the equator this September. No strong WWBs to be found this month. Which isn’t characteristic for developing El Niños in September. So an Important MEI element for El Niño’s is still missing. The atmosphere still doesn’t resemble anything approaching super El Niño mode. The current 3.4 anomaly around 1.6 is behaving more like a +0.75.
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It was the most disappointing NYC seasonal snowfall total with one of the DJF winter months recording a -2.5 or lower average monthly -AO reading. The 2 storms during that period for NYC came too far west on the 16th and 23rd. This was due to the Greenland block building too far south into Eastern New England. 22-23….2.3 10-11…..61.9 09-10....51.4 85-86….13.0 84-85…24.1 77-78….50.7 76-77….24.5 68-69….30.2 65-66….21.4 62-63….16.3
