bluewave

Several stations are in 1st place for wettest meteorological spring through April 3rd by a wide margin. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Mar 1 to Apr 3 Missing Count 1 2024-04-03 12.28 0 2 1983-04-03 9.81 0 3 2010-04-03 9.55 0 4 1953-04-03 8.77 0 5 1980-04-03 8.65 0 6 1993-04-03 8.37 0 7 1951-04-03 7.71 0 8 1977-04-03 7.31 0 9 2001-04-03 6.86 0 10 1944-04-03 6.84 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Mar 1 to Apr 3 Missing Count 1 2024-04-03 12.13 0 2 2010-04-03 8.62 0 3 1993-04-03 8.49 0 4 1980-04-03 8.21 0 5 1983-04-03 7.97 0 6 1953-04-03 7.93 3 7 2001-04-03 7.00 0 8 1984-04-03 5.99 0 9 1973-04-03 5.86 0 10 2017-04-03 5.83 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Mar 1 to Apr 3 Missing Count 1 2024-04-03 11.57 0 2 1998-04-03 9.50 0 3 2010-04-03 9.41 0 4 2001-04-03 9.14 0 5 2018-04-03 8.26 0 6 1967-04-03 7.63 0 7 1983-04-03 7.56 0 8 1993-04-03 6.52 0 9 1997-04-03 6.49 0 10 1980-04-03 6.45 0

Based on what I am seeing right now, we at least have a shot at one month from June through October with very excessive rainfall over 10.00”. That would be a scenario with hurricanes or tropical storms making landfall to our south and then tracking north. If we can string together more than one month of excessive rainfall, then the flood threat would be even higher. The worst scenario would be a direct hit which would add the damaging wind and coastal impacts. So we’ll have to monitor the coming season actual storm tracks very closely. It’s even potentially more problematic based on all the record rainfall since last summer.

The statistical predictors based on record SSTs and La Niña are very impressive for the coming hurricane season.

We have had a generally warmer minimum temperature pattern over the last two weeks. But all the clouds, onshore flow, and rain have been keeping the maximums down.

Looks like we are on track for the latest first 80° day of the year following a 40° winter. Models continue the theme of onshore flow, clouds, and chances for rain from time to time through at least April 15th. We will have to be happy with the warmer days into the 60s and hopefully some 70s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature First 80° Day 1 2001-2002 41.1 4-15 2 2022-2023 41.0 4-6 3 2023-2024 40.4 ? 4 2015-2016 40.1 3-9 5 2011-2012 40.0 4-15

My guess is that the 2010s will stand as our snowiest decade in modern times. While the warmer winters have lead to a decline in snowfall during the 2020s ,there will still be good years in the mix. But since we have probably began a declining pattern, there will be the chance for more below average than above average seasons over time.

3 top 10 lowest snowfall seasons during the 2020s so far. Their new average for the 2020s so far is only 26.1 which is similar to what NYC averaged during earlier decades. So about 50% of what they averaged during the 2010s. Boston had 100” in only 39 days back in 2015. That 39 day total is higher than their total snowfall since January 2021 to March 2024. Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 31 Missing Count 1 1937-05-31 9.0 0 2 2012-05-31 9.3 0 3 2024-05-31 9.7 59 4 1973-05-31 10.3 0 5 2023-05-31 12.4 0 6 1980-05-31 12.7 0 7 1995-05-31 14.9 0 8 2002-05-31 15.1 0 9 1989-05-31 15.5 0 10 2020-05-31 15.8 0 Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Season Mean 0.9 T 5.2 12.2 7.0 0.6 0.2 T 26.1 2023-2024 0.0 T 0.2 9.0 0.5 T 0.0 M 9.7 2022-2023 0.0 T 1.0 6.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 12.4 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.4 36.2 15.3 2.1 T 0.0 54.0 2020-2021 4.3 T 13.0 5.8 15.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 T 11.5 3.1 0.5 T 0.7 T 15.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Season Mean 0.1 0.3 6.9 15.8 20.5 8.5 1.0 0.0 53.0 2018-2019 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.1 11.6 13.5 T 0.0 27.4 2017-2018 0.0 T 9.2 17.8 8.3 23.3 1.3 0.0 59.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 5.9 8.9 21.5 10.1 1.2 0.0 47.6 2015-2016 T 0.0 0.9 9.5 15.0 4.1 6.6 0.0 36.1 2014-2015 0.0 2.6 0.3 34.3 64.8 8.6 T 0.0 110.6 2013-2014 0.0 T 11.7 21.8 22.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 58.9 2012-2013 0.0 0.4 3.4 5.0 34.0 20.6 T 0.0 63.4 2011-2012 1.0 T T 6.8 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 9.3 2010-2011 0.0 T 22.0 38.3 18.5 1.3 0.9 0.0 81.0 2009-2010 0.1 0.0 15.2 13.2 7.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 35.7 Maximum 39-Day Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 100.2 2015-03-03 0

Looks like one of the deepest 500 mb lows on record around Chicago for the month of April.

Coastal Westchester into Fairfield already gusting past 50 mph. Larchmont Harb N/A N/A N/A N/A NE41G53 Norwalk Harbor N/A N/A N/A N/A NE39G52

Jones Beach already gusting close to 50 mph ahead of the strongest winds expected later today into the evening. Jones Beach E37G48

The CMC has had one of the worst cold biases of any model this past winter. It’s also been very erratic at times. So better to just use the Euro and GFS suites longer range and then models like HRRR ,HREF, RGEM ..etc within 24-36 hrs.

Areas near the shore could see gusts near 60 mph since there is a 50KT flag just beneath the inversion.

Another example of how ridiculously amplified this pattern is. Record ridge NW of Hawaii…record trough to our west…and record blocking west of Greenland.

The record rainfall last summer kept the 90° days in check. But we have seen many more top 10 years for 90° days since 2010 than we ever did in the past. The reason you feel like we are seeing less 90° days now is due to your location. The heatwaves since the 15-16 super El Niño have featured more onshore flow due to the higher pressures east of New England. So places like JFK get the sea breeze earlier in the day and miss the 90s while areas just to the west get the excessive number of 90° days. We are getting to the point where we need washouts during the summer and spring just in order to avoid record heat like we are currently seeing. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0

It’s just difficult for the models when we start getting such strong Greenland blocks and cutoff lows. While the -NAO will quickly rebound, the blocking will transfer to Hudson Bay. So the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge will transition to an omega blocking pattern. This makes specific forecasts beyond 120 hrs even lower skill than they typically are. So clouds, rain, and onshore flow will continue to be a factor going forward. I know many don’t like all the record warmth of recent years. But the only times we catch a break from all the warmth is when it gets very wet and cloudy with a persistent onshore flow.

The ridge looks like it will be much narrower now than earlier runs were showing so we’ll probably have to wait until the weekend for the specific cloud conditions for the eclipse. New run Old run

Yeah, the models now have this as one of the deepest cutoff lows on record for this time of year. So it’s no surprise the models have more clouds, rain, and onshore flow going forward than just a few days ago. The only way we have avoided record warmth in recent years has been these record wet patterns with plenty of onshore flow.

That the potential is there for winds to beat expectations.

It’s an unusual sounding for this area since we usually doesn’t see an inversion with such a strong easterly jet below the inversion level with this much MUCAPE.

Yeah, very strong winds just above the deck along the Jersey Shore. Coastal sections could see an impressive wind event from the east as the models have a tighter gradient now. This is in top of the heavy rain potential.

While we already knew this, it’s good to see the figures. My guess this is related to the long range Euro inability to see the stronger MJO 4-7 influence. The lower skill shows the competing influences of these marine heatwaves made the stock El Niño forecast less likely compared to previous El Niños.

Depends on how much we can dry out after this week and reduce the onshore flow. The first 80° of the season will be later than average since 2010 due to all the clouds and record rainfall and onshore flow. But we should at least be able to make it back to around 70° by the 2nd week of April. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 02-21 (2018) 09-25 (2010) 167 Mean 03-31 10-12 193 Maximum 04-18 (2015) 11-07 (2022) 231 2023 04-06 (2023) 83 10-28 (2023) 84 204 2022 04-14 (2022) 88 11-07 (2022) 81 206 2021 03-26 (2021) 84 10-20 (2021) 80 207 2020 03-20 (2020) 80 09-28 (2020) 81 191 2019 04-08 (2019) 80 10-07 (2019) 80 181 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231 2017 04-10 (2017) 82 10-21 (2017) 81 193 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223 2015 04-18 (2015) 82 10-09 (2015) 81 173 2014 04-13 (2014) 83 09-28 (2014) 87 167 2013 04-09 (2013) 85 10-07 (2013) 80 180 2012 04-15 (2012) 80 10-05 (2012) 81 172 2011 03-18 (2011) 80 10-10 (2011) 85 205 2010 04-05 (2010) 81 09-25 (2010) 90 172

No since the major airports are right on the water.

The SPC HREF should be interesting next few days as this could be an unusually convective system near the secondary low. So rainfall totals and winds may exceed what the globals are showing. Plenty of MUCAPE showing up on hi res NAM.

This is going to be one of the strongest closed lows that we have seen this time of year.