bluewave
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Everything posted by bluewave
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Major basement flooding in NYC.
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This event will rank near the top for NYC flash flooding with Ida which was only a few years ago.
- 886 replies
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- heavy rain
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Approaching their two day record. Maximum 2-Day Total Precipitation for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 7.80 2011-08-15 0 - 7.80 2011-08-14 0 3 6.92 1976-08-09 0 4 6.67 1984-07-01 0 5 6.59 2005-10-14 0 6 6.51 1960-09-12 0 7 6.27 1984-06-30 0 8 6.02 2005-10-13 0 9 6.01 1991-08-20 0 10 5.89 1960-09-13 0
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Yeah, around -1.1 C lower than at this time in 2015 so we got 3.4 decline last several days as the trades picked up.
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I believe that 1.96 hourly rainfall at NYC is 2nd greatest on record. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=NYC&var=max_p01i&w=all&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=all&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
- 886 replies
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- 8
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- heavy rain
- flooding potential
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Serious basement flash flooding in Brooklyn.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/12/climate-change-clouds-equilibrium-sensitivity/ But just in the past few years, researchers have also discovered that the number of low-level stratus or stratocumulus clouds are expected to decrease as the planet continues to warm. One study, in the journal Nature Climate Change, used satellite observations to discover how cloud formation is affected by ocean temperatures, wind speed, humidity and other factors — and then analyzed how those factors will change as the world warms. “We concluded that as the ocean warms, the low-level clouds over the oceans tend to dissipate,” said Myers, one of the authors of the study. That means that there are fewer clouds to reflect sunlight and cool the earth — and the change in low-level clouds will also amplify global warming.
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2.20 in the last 30 minutes at Bensonhurst mesonet with up to 5.19 now. http://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc
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Must be at least plenty of street flooding with the Brooklyn mesonet picking up 1.39 in the last 30 minutes. http://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc
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Looks like a new hourly September rainfall record. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_p01i&w=all&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=sep&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
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I think it’s also a test of how reliable our ENSO models are. With the exception of 15-16, many have had fairly significant errors with their El Niño forecasts as late as September. My guess is that this is a result of the semi-permanent La Niña background state in recent years with strong WPAC warming. 12-13 was never able to develop and models didn’t catch on until October. 14-15 was forecast to go super early on but verified as much weaker. The super El Niño got delayed a year. 18-19 couldn’t fully couple and the Euro completely missed the winter forecast. This year we are continuing to verify under some of the more aggressive ENSO forecasts which had September near +2.0 in Nino 3.4. In addition, we are seeing historically low MEI readings for an event which nominally registered around +1.5 in September. Also unusually weak WWBs for most months since the spring with the exception of August. That was our only month with rapid warming in Nino 3.4 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01801-6#:~:text=The results from large ensemble,relative to the central Pacific.
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This thread has all the 10” months around the area since 2003. But some were in as short a period of hours to a day like in August 2011 and 2014.
