bluewave

Not even sure what type of forcing we would need to get in order to break this streak of 8 warmer winters in a row for the Northeast. NYC Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9

The only Nino region to have a new record in September was 4 getting close to +30C.

More possible beach erosion with the new moon next weekend if the storm can develop enough. Then some of the highest astronomical tides of the fall with the full moon near the end of the month. That’s one period when any possible coastal storms would only need a +0.75 surge for minor, +1.75 for moderate and +2.3 to +2.5 for low end major coastal flooding.

Looks like we keep the rain on the weekends theme for a while longer. Rain with the cold front this weekend. Then another storm possible for next weekend.

Record warmth to start October as EWR and HPN tied their record highs. Data for October 3 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2023-10-03 85 59 0.00 0.0 0 1950-10-03 85 61 0.00 0.0 0 2021-10-03 84 56 0.00 0.0 0 2002-10-03 84 63 0.04 0.0 0 1968-10-03 83 65 0.04 0.0 0 1967-10-03 83 53 0.00 0.0 0 Data for October 3 - WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2023-10-03 80 54 0.00 M M 1983-10-03 80 60 0.00 0.0 0 2000-10-03 79 M 0.00 0.0 0 2006-10-03 78 49 0.00 M M 2001-10-03 78 51 0.00 M M 1968-10-03 78 63 0.02 0.0 0 1953-10-03 78 44 0.00 0.0 0

It is interfering with the strong WWB pattern we usually see during Septembers with -SOI. This is probably due to the lower pressures than average north of Australia.

That PDO is so negative that it’s probably destructively interfering with El Niño development as seen with the stronger trades and Nino region temperature declines in recent weeks. https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/966/why-is-the-warm-phase-of-the-pacific-decadal-oscillation-associated-with-stronge According to the State Climate Office of North Carolina webpage Global Patterns - Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), experts believe Essentially, almost analogous to constructive and destructive interference in sound. Another relationship, from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks webpage The Pacific Decadal Oscillation also asserts that

It’s very difficult to get two consecutive winters that warm since the Northeast tied with 15-16 last winter. Even though last winter was just as warm as 15-16, we didn’t get an extreme +13 month. 16-17 was still one of the warmest after 15-16 but there was a step down by about 1° cooler. Warmest Northeast winters list

Every year plays out differently especially with all the competing influences now. But September 2012 was the only time we had a -PDO under -2.00 with the attempted El Niño development. We can remember the El Niño weakening in late September with the resurgence of the trades after some summer WWBs.

This is currently a split flow pattern with the PAC Jet dominating over the STJ. That big jet extension all the guidance is showing is what we usually see with La Ninas this time of year. So the -PDO pattern is really pushing back against the El Niño development at the present time. The firehose jet will give cause the -EPO to flip to an +EPO and erode the +PNA ridge.

If we don’t get a strong WWB pattern this month, then we probably have already seen the peak of this event. But even a stronger WWB pattern may only get us back to where we were a few weeks ago. There is only so much more we can warm without a big turnaround in OHC and WWBs. This kind of sudden falloff in SST departures from Nino 1+2 to 3.4 hasn’t happened before from these high levels in late September into early October. But it did happen with the 12-13 El Niño attempt from much weaker levels.

It’s because they are measuring the high temperatures now in NYC underneath trees. The thermometer was out in the open before the 90s. So this invalidates comparisons to NYC high temperatures before the change in observation methodology. Just add a few degrees to the NYC high temperatures and they would have as many top 10 warmest finishes as the other sites do. Even the new WTC station right on NY Harbor with local sea breezes finished the month above 70°. https://facilityexecutive.com/world-trade-center-weather-station-offers-insights-for-facilities/ Monthly Data for September 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 71.7 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 71.2 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.0 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 70.4 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 70.2 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 69.9 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 69.8 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 69.5 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 69.4 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 69.4 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 69.4

Which goes to the importance of getting a strong WWB pattern to drive the El Niño development. This key ingredient was missing in September. Notice how much stronger the WWB pattern is during typical Septembers when we have a developing El Niño.

It’s more impressive if we include all the Friday to Sunday periods going back to June 1st. There were only 2 extended weekends since then with no measurable rainfall in NYC. So NYC went 16 out of 18 extended weekends with a least one day recording measurable rainfall. NYC Friday to Sunday rainfall since June 1st JUN….2-4…0.24 JUN….9-11…0.01 JUN….16-18…0.23 JUN….23-25…0.11 JUL…..30-2….0.58 JUL…..7-9……0.98 JUL…..14-16….1.84 JUL…..21-23….0.15 JUL…..28-30….0.06 AUG…..4-6……T AUG….11-13….0.69 AUG….18-20….0.77 AUG….25-27…0.96 SEP….1-3….0.00 SEP….8-10…1.92 SEP…15-17…0.23 SEP…22-24….2.21 SEP….29-01….5.52

While I loved living in Long Beach, they were always having mismanagement issues that lead to tax increases. They have been having some big financial struggles since Sandy. The locals aren’t happy that they are planning a very large ocean front condo and apartment complex. They are worried about more tax increases and stress on the infrastructure. Just too much development packed onto a very small island.

The oddest juxtaposition is getting such a low -PDO with such historically warm SSTs near the Dateline. Those two competing patterns may try have a Nino-like ridge building over Western North America only to get a Niña-like WPAC jet extension to try and knock it down.

The Lido Dunes section near the famous Marvel ice cream stand to the Mushrooms had the best Dune protection and it served them very well. Most people have two story houses with the ocean view from their upstairs. That is a good compromise. Those are some of the most sought after homes on the entire barrier island. Long Beach had very small dunes that got flattened by Sandy with the houses immediately behind them suffering major damage. Long Beach is still having problems with their infrastructure after Sandy. Had some friends tell me that they went to a restaurant about a week ago in Long Beach and their were issues with sewer back ups and bad smells outside the restaurant. Also spoke to a few business owners in the years after Sandy and said they were continuing to have issues with toilets not flushing very well and having to call the city for assistance.

I can remember all the back and forth about what to do about erosion from my days living in Long Beach. They had proposals before Hurricane Sandy to build higher dunes. But many people near the beach didn’t want the dunes obstructing their view of the ocean. So they kicked the can for years and finally did the new dunes after Sandy. There was a section in Lido Beach with very high dunes that did very well. The people just got used to not being able to see the ocean from their first floors. But the section of Lido Beach with low dunes and better views around the Lido Towers suffered heavy damage from the waves pounding the first floor and knocking out walls.

Yeah, the Army Corps will have to return to places like Fire Island to repair the dunes. Very risky in this era of more extreme weather to build right on the dunes like that.

15-16 was the warmest weekly Nino 4 of all time at +1.7. The 09-10 event came in at +1.4. But the current +1.3 daily is very impressive. That warm pool near the Dateline with +30C is the warmest part of the whole Pacific. I believe this a new daily record for October 1st. None of the other Nino regions are anywhere near a daily record.

Nino 4 is a month ahead of 2015 which didn’t have readings this warm until early November. The main difference this time is that September may have registered one of lowest September average monthly- PDO readings on record. We had a solid positive +PDO in 15-16.

More conformation that eastern ENSO regions have peaked unusually early. The most recent observations (with instruments) of the @DHN_peru show a cooling of the sea at #ElCallao and yesterday's in particular is the lowest of the entire event #ElNiñoCostero in progress. But, it is still a little more than 2ºC above normal; which is also the most recent differential that the temperatures in #Lima - #Callao are showing compared to their typical values for this time

Same here in Southern CT. Just a little thinner than it was earlier. Off the charts wildfire season in Canada.

Top 10 warmest September at ISP and EWR. The 91-20 climate normals have warmed so much, that it only takes a +1.7 at ISP for the 7th warmest September temperature. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 70.9 0 2 2005 70.2 0 3 2018 69.8 0 4 2021 69.6 0 - 1980 69.6 0 5 2017 69.0 0 - 2011 69.0 0 6 2016 68.9 0 7 2023 68.6 0 - 1998 68.6 0 8 2010 68.3 0 9 2022 68.2 0 10 1983 68.1 0 - 1971 68.1 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1961 74.5 0 2 2005 73.5 0 3 2015 73.4 0 4 2021 72.5 0 5 2016 71.8 0 - 1971 71.8 0 6 2010 71.6 0 7 1959 71.5 0 8 2018 71.4 0 9 2023 71.2 0 - 2011 71.2 0 10 1973 71.0 0 - 1931 71.0 0

The run of Decembers from 2000 to 2010 was epic around NYC. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 2.8 2.8 2022 T T 2021 0.2 0.2 2020 10.5 10.5 2019 2.5 2.5 2018 T T 2017 7.7 7.7 2016 3.2 3.2 2015 T T 2014 1.0 1.0 2013 8.6 8.6 2012 0.4 0.4 2011 0.0 0.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 8.9 8.9 2010 20.1 20.1 2009 12.4 12.4 2008 6.0 6.0 2007 2.9 2.9 2006 0.0 0.0 2005 9.7 9.7 2004 3.0 3.0 2003 19.8 19.8 2002 11.0 11.0 2001 T T 2000 13.4 13.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 2.7 2.7 1999 T T 1998 2.0 2.0 1997 T T 1996 T T 1995 11.5 11.5 1994 T T 1993 6.9 6.9 1992 0.4 0.4 1991 0.7 0.7 1990 7.2 7.2 1989 1.4 1.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 2.0 2.0 1988 0.3 0.3 1987 2.6 2.6 1986 0.6 0.6 1985 0.9 0.9 1984 5.5 5.5 1983 1.6 1.6 1982 3.0 3.0 1981 2.1 2.1 1980 2.8 2.8 1979 3.5 3.5 1978 0.5 0.5 1977 0.4 0.4