bluewave

I liked the 17-18 winter into spring record snowfall much better than 18-19 and 19-20 following the record cold in November. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1893-01-01 through 2023-10-19 Lowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 11/10 25 in 2017 27 in 2004 27 in 1914 11/11 24 in 2017 25 in 1956 25 in 1933 11/12 25 in 2019 28 in 2017 28 in 1904+ 11/13 22 in 2019 24 in 1986 25 in 1920+ 11/14 18 in 1905 21 in 1986 24 in 2019 11/15 18 in 1933 21 in 1942 21 in 1905 11/16 15 in 1933 20 in 1967 22 in 1996+ 11/17 18 in 1933 21 in 1980 23 in 1900 11/18 19 in 1936 21 in 1959 21 in 1904 11/19 19 in 1936 21 in 2014 24 in 1903 11/20 21 in 1984 21 in 1894 22 in 1901 11/21 18 in 1987 21 in 1903 22 in 1910 11/22 17 in 2018 19 in 1987 22 in 1949 11/23 13 in 2018 21 in 1932 22 in 1949

I believe the WCS daily PDO updates are based on mantua PDO index and not the NOAA PDO index. So each version of the index varies from the other. Plus the key area north and NW of Hawaii is what matters for our sensible weather rather than the absolute PDO values. But when the are aligned like last winter into spring we had the strongly coupled -PDO trough in the West.

That is a very nice rise. We just need a decent cold pool and Aleutian low north or northwest Hawaii to push back against the tendency for too strong an Aleutian ridge. We want the El Niño to be the primary driver of the pattern. This way even if the winter continues the warmer theme of recent years, a juiced STJ can deliver better snowfall than last winter.

They are talking about localized sea level rise with the El Nino in the Tropical Pacific from the warmer SSTs not the ongoing global sea level rise. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3286/international-ocean-satellite-monitors-how-el-nino-is-shaping-up/#:~:text=By October 1997 and 2015,the 1997 and 2015 events. Not all El Niño events are created equal. Their impacts vary widely, and satellites like the U.S.-European Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich help anticipate those impacts on a global scale by tracking changes in sea surface height in the Pacific Ocean. Water expands as it warms, so sea levels tend to be higher in places with warmer water. El Niños are characterized by higher-than-normal sea levels and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. These conditions can then propagate poleward along the western coasts of the Americas. El Niños can bring wetter conditions to the U.S. Southwest and drought to regions in the western Pacific, including Indonesia. This year’s El Niño is still developing, but researchers are looking to the recent past for clues as to how it is shaping up. There have been two extreme El Niño events in the past 30 years: the first from 1997 to 1998 and the second from 2015 to 2016. Both caused shifts in global air and ocean temperatures, atmospheric wind and rainfall patterns, and sea level. The maps above show sea levels in the Pacific Ocean during early October of 1997, 2015, and 2023, with higher-than-average ocean heights in red and white, and lower-than-average heights in blue and purple. Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich captured the 2023 data, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite collected data for the 1997 image, and Jason-2 gathered data for the 2015 map. By October 1997 and 2015, large areas of the central and eastern Pacific had sea levels more than 7 inches (18 centimeters) higher than normal. This year, sea levels are about 2 or 3 inches (5 to 8 centimeters) higher than average and over a smaller area compared to the 1997 and 2015 events. Both of the past El Niños reached peak strength in late November or early December, so this year’s event may still intensify. “Every El Niño is a little bit different,” said Josh Willis, Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich project scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. “This one seems modest compared to the big events, but it could still give us a wet winter here in the Southwest U.S. if conditions are right.”

The paper had an increase in PNA blocking only during the winter and not NAO blocking. The eruption was in January 2022. So 3-7 years wouldn’t be be until next winter. But it’s just one study so we’ll have to see if the winter PNA blocking increases in 24-25. So the record blocking over Canada since May is probably related to the general increase in these stuck 500 mb ridges in recent years and not the volcanic eruption.

Thanks. Just saw that. The blocking influence from the eruption on the composites is mostly during the winter and largely absent during the warm season. So maybe this is just a continuation of the 500 mb ridges that have been getting stuck in place during recent years as the planet warms.

All of Canada has experienced historic blocking beyond anything we have seen in the past from May to October. But none of the El Niño or -PDO composites have a block like this. So there has to be something else at work. Probably a combination of factors. The chart below will be even more impressive when it gets updated to include October. Brian B made a post about this when it started back in May.

It can definitely be an issue early in the season like 12-05-20 with a storm bombing out to our SE and no cold. Things got better a few weeks after that. But BGM was favored with the 40” jackpot since the low was so tucked in near ACY.

Great blocking pattern and trough this month but a lack of cold air to go along with it.

The one thing that has changed since the 70s to 90s is that we have more 50+ and 60+ days close to our snowstorms. So the snow has started to melt pretty quickly after the snowstorms. I don’t mind this since it’s more like what our spring snowstorms from the past used to be like. One of my all-time favorites snowstorms was April 1982. I didn’t mind that it was in the 60s in the days before and after the snow. So I will gladly trade extended snow cover for great KU events.

JMA is one site with monthly composites based on ENSO. They have more detail than the ESRL maps. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/enso_statistics/index.html

All we know so far is that this month is a blend of El Niño and La Niña composites probably due to the -PDO. The end result is that the troughs under the blocking don’t have much cold air to work with. Plus this has been the warmest October on record globally.

02-03 was a great winter with the best Christmas Day snowstorm on record for parts of Long Island. Plus one of our greatest KU’s of all time in February. Then the bonus late season snows. So I would also rank it high. Data for December 25 - ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2002-12-25 41 30 1.29 8.0 M 1966-12-25 32 22 0.13 2.3 7 1969-12-25 31 13 0.10 1.0 0 2017-12-25 40 28 0.24 T 0 2003-12-25 47 33 T T 0 1992-12-25 40 13 T T 0 1985-12-25 41 19 T T 0 1976-12-25 40 14 T T 0 1975-12-25 40 8 0.14 T 2

While we have had much bigger snowstorms than any individual event in 93-94, the January ice storm still stands as our benchmark event along with January 1978. It was the last time areas west of NYC dropped from -15 to -30. Jan 94 was Allentown’s version of Feb 34 in NYC. It was the last time downtown Philly dropped to -5. Also the coldest temperature on record for Sussex County, NJ at -29. Monthly Data for January 1994 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature PA BLUE MARSH LAKE COOP -29 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP -29 NJ NEWTON COOP -26 PA PALMERTON COOP -23 PA BUCKSVILLE COOP -23 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP -22 PA READING 4 NNW COOP -20 NJ SUSSEX 8 NNW COOP -20 PA HAMBURG COOP -19 PA SPRINGTOWN 1 NNE COOP -18 NJ LONG VALLEY COOP -18 PA GRATERFORD 1 E COOP -17 NJ BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP -17 PA ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -15 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP -15 Time Series Summary for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 -15 0 2 1961 -12 0 - 1934 -12 7 3 1984 -11 0 - 1942 -11 0 4 1954 -10 1 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 -15 0 2 1917 -13 0 3 1943 -8 0 4 1933 -6 0 - 1918 -6 0 - 1899 -6 0 - 1882 -6 0 - 1880 -6 1 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE, PA - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 -5 17 2 2015 1 9 3 2014 3 2 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 -29 137 2 1961 -25 1 3 1912 -24 9 4 1967 -23 6 5 1981 -22 1 - 1968 -22 40

Perfect balance of blocking near Greenland and Alaska with a great SW ridge near California. It was the only time a station on Long Island had a 90” season. It might have been a 100 to 200 year event if we had snowfall data going back that far on Long Island. It was as close to a perfect winter and snowfall season that our area has had in modern times. A great KU, high number of days with snow cover, and wall to wall cold from November into April but not overpowering. On a scale of 100 for ranking a winter, it would probably be the only year in my lifetime that I would grade a 95 or higher A+. I would probably rank the 10-11 and 77-78 seasons a close 2nd around 90. https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/monthlysnowfall.htm

The blocking just south of Greenland since June has been unprecedented. It’s well ahead of 2012. Just hoping that means we can see a SSW this January like in 2013. I know it’s a small sample size but I can still hope. Would love to see a repeat of Nemo.

It was a great year for the extended snow cover fans. But 95-96 still wasn’t able to get challenged. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 Missing Count 1 1995-1996 62 0 2 2004-2005 55 0 3 1977-1978 53 1 4 2014-2015 48 0 5 1993-1994 46 3 6 2010-2011 45 0 7 2013-2014 39 0 - 2000-2001 39 23 8 1964-1965 37 1 9 1976-1977 36 0 10 1963-1964 35 7

The most recent MEI update is weak and moderate looks like the current ceiling if we keep seeing these small increases.

From the recent ENSO blog post. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/october-2023-el-nino-update-big-cats So how about peaking at or above 2.0 °C? Forecasters give that around a 3-in-10 chance for November­–January. The climate models have a fairly wide range of potential outcomes—if they were concentrated above 2.0 °C, we’d probably be able to give more confident chances. Also, while there is still a good amount of heat under the surface of the Pacific—this warmer water provides a source to the surface—it’s not quite at the level we’ve seen during previous historically strong El Niños like 1982–83, 1997–98, or 2015–16. Each dot on this scatterplot shows the subsurface temperature anomaly (difference from the long-term average) in the central tropical Pacific each September (horizontal axis) since 1979 versus the oceanic ENSO conditions the following November–January (vertical axis). The vertical red line show the September 2023 subsurface temperature anomaly. The amount of warmer-than-average water under the surface in September has a strong relationship with the oceanic ENSO conditions later in the year. Previous very strong El Niño events, 1982–83,1997–98, and 2015–16, had more subsurface warm water than 2023. Data from CPC, image by Climate.gov. This is a small sample of very strong events, though, and the current moderate subsurface temperature certainly doesn’t preclude this event peaking above 2.0 °C. It just contributes to a tempering of the odds.

I would take that JMA composite and run since you know the snowfall would be an improvement over the last few winters. This is one year that I really hope the JMA has a clue. I just have to be cautious since it did struggle with its last El Niño forecast in 18-19 even though this event is somewhat better coupled. But we still have that -PDO which I would like to see flip positive or at least become uncoupled.

The much lower upper ocean heat is really holding this event back. That weak cold pool from 100-200 meters under 3.4 looks really out of place vs the strongest events. Same goes for the highly anomalous warm pool near and west of the Dateline where a cold pool is supposed to be.

Big temperature swing next week from lows the 30s and 40s to highs in the 70s.

Yeah, we all have our own criteria for what makes a great winter. I weigh more heavily being near the jackpot of a high ranking KU event than extended snow cover or cold. I enjoyed the January 2016 event more than any of the multiple smaller events in 13-14 and 14-15. I don’t mind if a big snowfall begins melting right after the event. One thing left I haven’t seen is 10” of snow in one hour. Any winter that produces that event will be an A in my ratings regardless of what the rest of the winter does. Same goes for any winter that produces one single 40-50” event which I haven’t experienced yet.

I guess it’s all a matter of personal opinion. While the 15-16 winter was one of the warmest of all-time, it did have the greatest NYC snowstorm of all-time. This was followed by another double digit snowfall in early February on Long Island. Plus NYC had its first subzero reading since 1994. So I actually enjoyed that winter more than 14-15. I am not that big a fan of extended snow cover if it’s from a bunch of smaller to moderate events. The one event that stands out from the 14-15 winter is the late January storm missing east vs model forecasts. But I did enjoy the extended snow cover in 10-11 which was the result of three great KU events.