bluewave

Valentines Day 2007 was one of the more unusual frozen precip patterns I ever saw in the area. Started as heavy sleet across Nassau enough to collapse a gas station canopy in Island Park. Then it turned to steady freezing rain south of Sunrise with a .25 to .50 accumulation on the trees and wires in Long Beach. No freezing rain from north of sunrise. So it was the only ice storm to get limited to the immediate South Shore.

Definitely. Driving the Meadowbrook north you always felt it getting warmer once past Merrrick Road and especially once north of the Southern State. The opposite was true in the winter. Left Long Beach many times with rain and had the snow start mixing in north of Merrick road.

It was July 2010 with the 108° reading. July 2011 was missing and the station shut down several months later. July 2010 was the all-time high and the all-time low was -5° in 1943 but they got close in 1994. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for MINEOLA, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024 M M M M 2023 M M M M 2022 M M M M 2021 M M M M 2020 M M M M 2019 M M M M 2018 M M M M 2017 M M M M 2016 M M M M 2015 M M M M 2014 M M M M 2013 M M M M 2012 M M M M 2011 96 M 94 96 2010 101 108 99 108 Time Series Summary for MINEOLA, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 108 0 2 2001 105 32 3 1999 103 10 - 1966 103 0 4 1988 102 50 - 1975 102 1 - 1948 102 1 5 2002 101 0 - 1973 101 0 - 1968 101 0 - 1952 101 0 6 2006 100 1 - 1993 100 8 - 1991 100 0 - 1957 100 12 - 1955 100 3 Time Series Summary for MINEOLA, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1943 -5 0 2 1994 -4 3 3 1942 -2 0 4 1983 -1 91 - 1976 -1 3 - 1961 -1 2 5 1979 0 22 - 1948 0 2

I used to live 2 blocks from the beach in Long Beach. There were days when it was 85° at my old place and almost 90° from Atlantic ave in Oceanside to Sunrise highway. Then many more 90° days in SW Nassau north of the Southern State. Mineola is probably one of the hottest spots on Long Island very close to the Queens border. I believe the 52 days reaching 90 in 2010 is probably the all-time record for Long Island. It was very competitive with Newark that summer due to the frequent westerly flow. Time Series Summary for MINEOLA, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 52 0 2 1988 34 50 3 2002 33 0 4 2005 32 2 5 1999 27 10 - 1991 27 0 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 59 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 54 NY MINEOLA COOP 52 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 51 NJ HARRISON COOP 50

The JFK ASOS is closer to the water than your area is. When I used to live in Long Beach it could be 85° but closer to 90° from Sunrise to Southern State. So the 90° counts steadily increase away from the immediate shoreline.

The sea breeze has been boosting the mins due to higher dew points and muting the maxes in terms of 90° days near the coast. Even Newark has fallen behind years in the lead for 90° days by July 24th. Harrison a few miles away from the bay has gotten close to the top. JFK is only in 15th place for 90° days by July 24th at 2 days. A year like 2010 with all the westerly flow was in 1st place with 20 days already. Newark is in 5th place and Harrison 2nd place. Only Central NJ is keeping pace with 2010 in 1st place. Max # 90 days by July 24th Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-24 20 0 2 1983-07-24 14 0 3 1991-07-24 13 0 4 2012-07-24 12 0 - 2002-07-24 12 0 6 1952-07-24 11 0 7 2022-07-24 10 0 - 2011-07-24 10 0 - 1966-07-24 10 0 - 1962-07-24 10 0 - 1955-07-24 10 2 - 1949-07-24 10 0 8 2013-07-24 9 0 - 1999-07-24 9 0 - 1993-07-24 9 0 - 1988-07-24 9 0 - 1987-07-24 9 0 - 1974-07-24 9 0 9 2017-07-24 8 0 - 2003-07-24 8 0 - 1997-07-24 8 0 - 1986-07-24 8 0 - 1984-07-24 8 0 - 1971-07-24 8 0 - 1963-07-24 8 0 10 2020-07-24 7 0 - 2016-07-24 7 0 - 2008-07-24 7 0 - 1994-07-24 7 0 - 1981-07-24 7 0 - 1977-07-24 7 0 - 1969-07-24 7 0 - 1968-07-24 7 0 - 1964-07-24 7 0 11 2019-07-24 6 0 - 2005-07-24 6 0 - 1992-07-24 6 0 - 1972-07-24 6 0 - 1957-07-24 6 0 12 2021-07-24 5 0 - 1995-07-24 5 0 - 1990-07-24 5 0 - 1978-07-24 5 0 - 1961-07-24 5 0 - 1956-07-24 5 0 - 1954-07-24 5 1 - 1953-07-24 5 0 13 2006-07-24 4 0 - 2000-07-24 4 0 - 1970-07-24 4 0 - 1965-07-24 4 0 - 1959-07-24 4 2 14 2018-07-24 3 0 - 2001-07-24 3 0 - 1998-07-24 3 0 - 1996-07-24 3 0 - 1989-07-24 3 0 - 1982-07-24 3 0 - 1980-07-24 3 0 - 1976-07-24 3 0 - 1973-07-24 3 0 15 2024-07-24 2 0 - 2015-07-24 2 0 - 2007-07-24 2 0 - 1975-07-24 2 0 - 1958-07-24 2 1 Newark in 5th place Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-24 32 0 2 1993-07-24 28 0 - 1987-07-24 28 0 3 2022-07-24 27 0 - 1994-07-24 27 0 - 1991-07-24 27 0 4 2021-07-24 25 0 5 2024-07-24 23 0 - 2011-07-24 23 0 - 2002-07-24 23 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-24 31 17 2 2024-07-24 28 0 3 2002-07-24 26 5 4 2021-07-24 24 0 - 2012-07-24 24 21 - 2011-07-24 24 14 5 2018-07-24 23 0 Time Series Summary for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-24 27 8 - 2010-07-24 27 0 3 2021-07-24 25 0 4 2022-07-24 23 0 - 1988-07-24 23 0 - 1957-07-24 23 0 - 1894-07-24 23 11 5 2020-07-24 22 0 - 2012-07-24 22 1 - 1952-07-24 22 0

The sea breeze has kept the maxes down a JFK.The high of 91° so far there is the 4th lowest on record. But the high dew points have kept the minimums warmer at 3rd warmest. JFK recently set the longest streak for under 100° days at 4024. And it’s very possible this streak will extend at least into next year. Much stronger sea breeze influence since 2014. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2009-07-24 85 0 - 1948-07-24 85 46 2 1979-07-24 89 0 - 1967-07-24 89 0 - 1951-07-24 89 0 3 2023-07-24 90 0 - 2007-07-24 90 0 - 1960-07-24 90 0 4 2024-07-24 91 0 - 2021-07-24 91 0 - 2014-07-24 91 0 - 2004-07-24 91 0 - 1996-07-24 91 0 - 1985-07-24 91 0 - 1976-07-24 91 0 - 1975-07-24 91 0 - 1973-07-24 91 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1948-07-24 69.3 46 2 2010-07-24 69.0 0 3 2024-07-24 68.3 0 4 2013-07-24 68.0 0 5 1984-07-24 67.8 0 6 1952-07-24 67.4 0 7 1994-07-24 67.3 0 - 1981-07-24 67.3 0 8 2011-07-24 67.2 0 - 2008-07-24 67.2 0 9 2015-07-24 67.1 0 10 1983-07-24 67.0 0 Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1948-07-17 to 2024-07-24 1 4024 2013-07-19 through 2024-07-24 2 4016 1999-07-06 through 2010-07-03 3 4009 1972-07-24 through 1983-07-15 4 3610 1983-08-21 through 1993-07-08 5 2210 1966-07-05 through 1972-07-22 6 2185 1993-07-11 through 1999-07-04 7 963 1960-05-02 through 1962-12-20 8 857 1955-03-18 through 1957-07-21 9 817 1951-11-07 through 1954-01-31 10 736 1948-08-28 through 1950-09-02

The high pressure to the north overperformed. It’s one of the few times that a strong Southeast ridge influence gets muted around here. The good news is that there will finally be a dry weekend coming up. A more active convection pattern should return as that big Canadian high shifts out to Bermuda in about a week to 10 days.

Yeah, now we have the continuing record marine heatwaves east of Japan and Canada.

95-96 was also one of the strongest +PDO composite patterns we have seen. Notice the great cold pool from Japan to north of Hawaii. Also having the cold pool near the Maritime Continent shut down the warmer MJO 4-6 phases that winter.

The raw PDO values didn’t work that winter since the actual spatial SST anomaly in 13-14 was one of the strongest composite +PDO patterns on record in terms of the cold pool aspect. Notice the classic +PDO cold pool from Japan to north of Hawaii. The warm blob off the Pacific Northwest associated with the TNH pattern may have been why the raw PDO didn’t match the SST composite. Since the warmest SSTs were just off the coast instead of right along it. So due to the record 13-14 TNH pattern, the typical +PDO trough was centered over the Great Lakes instead of New England. The pattern shifted further east in 14-15 resembling the canonical +PDO. But both seasons shared the record cold patterns downstream of the record NE PAC blocking ridge. So the cold pool near Japan and Hawaii was established a year before the raw +PDO values caught up. Plus there was actually a cold SST pool over the MJO 5 region near the Maritime Continent. So it’s not hard to see why those were such memorable winters. 13-14 +PDO cold pool from Japan to north of Hawaii with record TNH distorting typical NE PAC SST +PDO response Classic +PDO signature

Fog and drizzle at times here today with a late July backdoor pattern due to the high pressure to the north pushing back against the Southeast ridge.

Looks like the pattern will dry out before the weekend. Drier weather expected after Thursday. Then Canadian high pressure for the weekend with more comfortable temperatures than the month to date.

This has been the case for a while now as we have been seeing new positive 500 mb height anomaly records regularly these days. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL066669 Apart from global scale surface warming, anthropogenic forcings also lead to warming and thermal expansion of the lower atmosphere. Here we investigate these effects using the geopotential height at 500 hPa, an indicator of the combined thermodynamic and dynamic climatic response to external forcings. We employ optimal fingerprinting, which uses information from reanalysis data sets and experiments with seven state-of-the-art climate models, to assess the role of anthropogenic and natural influences on changes in the geopotential height during the satellite era. A significant global increase in the annual and seasonal mean geopotential height due to human influence is detected, a result confirmed with four different reanalysis data sets. A more moderate increase in the annual mean associated with natural forcings is also detected. Our findings, consistent with previous detection and attribution studies of changes in temperature and sea level pressure, indicate the prominent role of human influence on some recent climatic changes. Key Points New independent evidence of human contribution to recent climatic changes in the lower atmosphere Human influence is detected in global increases in the 500 hPa geopotential height since 1979 A smaller natural signal is also detected in changes of the annual mean geopotential height

The interesting thing is that the fall to winter MJO relationship only seems to apply with La Niña winters since 10-11.

The only ENSO neutral we have had since the 15-16 super El Niño was 19-20. That season got overpowered by the IOD with the strong IO forcing in the fall leading to the very strong SPV in the winter. It also allowed the WPAC warm pool to lead to the record MJO 4-6. So the weaker ENSO input permitted other factors to dominate. 2016 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 2019 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2020 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 2021 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 2022 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 2023 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2024 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.4

The models did a great job forecasting the new daily global high temperature record.

While the record highs across the U.S. are vastly outnumbering the record lows, Springfield, Illinois was one of the few spots in the U.S. to have 2 record lows this month. The record low on July 1st of 49° was actually the 2nd coldest temperature recorded in July since 1879. Springfield Area, ILPeriod of record: 1879-07-01 through 2024-07-22DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F) 7/1 49 in 2024 51 in 1984 52 in 1976+ 7/19 54 in 2024 54 in 2009 54 in 1909 Time Series Summary for Springfield Area, IL (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2013 48 0 - 1975 48 0 - 1972 48 0 - 1971 48 0 - 1967 48 0 2 2024 49 9 - 1996 49 0 - 1891 49 0

Over an inch in spots with the heavy downpours. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NJ-BG-60 Station Name: Montvale 1.8 ESE Observation Date 7/23/2024 8:00 AM Submitted 7/23/2024 7:28 AM Gauge Catch 1.32 in. Notes -- Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NJ-MS-102 Station Name: Chatham 0.6 NE Observation Date 7/23/2024 7:00 AM Submitted 7/23/2024 7:09 AM Gauge Catch 1.22 in. Notes --

This is due to the WPAC warm pool taking on the primary role in our La Niña background pattern. So we can get a very strong La Niña atmospheric response with only weekly cool ONIs. In the old days before the WPAC was so warm, weak La Ninas were cold and snowy like in 95-96, 00-01, and 08-09. Our weaker La Nina’s since then have been much warmer like in 11-12, 16-17, and 22-23.

Yes. The summer pattern started over the top with the warmest departures up in Canada June 1st to 15th. Then our area got the stronger heat later in the month as the warmth eventually worked down into our area. July reverted back to the recent multiyear pattern of cool in the Midwest and warmth along both coasts.

Looks like another over the top warm up day 8-14 on the EPS. So the West and Canada will warm up first. So it may take a few days after for the warmest temperatures to work down into our area.

JFK has only been able to make it to 91° which is the 6th coolest max by July 21st. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1948-07-21 85 198 2 2009-07-21 86 0 3 1951-07-21 87 2 4 1967-07-21 89 0 5 2023-07-21 90 0 - 2007-07-21 90 0 - 1979-07-21 90 0 - 1972-07-21 90 0 - 1960-07-21 90 1 6 2024-07-21 91 0 - 2014-07-21 91 0 - 2004-07-21 91 0 - 1985-07-21 91 0 - 1976-07-21 91 0 - 1975-07-21 91 0 - 1973-07-21 91 0

The main takeaway from those forecast maps is that the marine heatwave east of Japan maintains or even slightly becomes stronger heading into the winter. So regardless of the La Niña intensity we will need a mismatch along the lines of Jan 22 or elements of 21-22. Otherwise we will get another winter similar to the last 2 which were warm and relatively snowless. So hoping to get some more clues as we head into the fall as to whether we can see some improvement over the last few winters.