bluewave

The epic deluge in August into September 2011 came after the record heat in June and July.

All it took was a dry July and August in 2022 for 4-6 days reaching 100° away from the sea breeze influence in NJ. NJ probably could have made it 10 days if they were able to get a real drought like back in 2002. Data for July 1, 2022 through August 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 6 Newark Area ThreadEx 6 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 5 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 5 CANOE BROOK COOP 4 HARRISON COOP 4

That 108° In Mineola was in 2010 which was drier before the epic deluge from August into September 2011.

Newark came close to +5 with the warmest April on record last year. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 58.0 0 2 2010 57.9 0 3 1994 57.4 0 4 2017 57.2 0 5 1985 57.0 0 6 1974 56.5 0 7 1941 56.2 0 8 2002 56.0 0 9 2006 55.7 0 10 2011 55.5 0

The much wetter pattern which began after 2002 has only seen occasional relaxations like around 2012. It got taken up a notch with the most recent very wet pattern which began back in July. With the potential for such an active hurricane season coming up, it doesn’t appear that we’ll be seeing a significantly drier extended pattern anytime soon. Some stations like LGA have seen their wettest July into April by over 10.00”. So I am guessing that it’s related to the record global temperature spike able to hold more water vapor. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Apr 5 Missing Count 1 2024-04-05 59.84 0 2 1976-04-05 48.51 0 3 2019-04-05 45.98 0 4 2012-04-05 44.65 0 5 2005-04-05 44.27 0 6 1961-04-05 43.73 0 7 1956-04-05 42.90 0 8 1984-04-05 42.58 0 9 1951-04-05 42.06 0 10 1998-04-05 41.40 0

Tuesday looks like our next 70s day of the spring before we get backdoored on Wednesday. Then our next slow moving storm system with more heavy rains and high winds from Wednesday into Friday. That MJO 8 and -NAO combo last few weeks is really having a lasting influence. I guess if we keep finding ways to avoid the MJO 8 in the winter like recent years it will catch up with us in the spring.

Yeah, the highly amplified pattern continues. Brief warm up into Tuesday followed by a backdoor on Wednesday. Then a rainy and windy cutter later in the week.

I would not want to experience anything stronger than this.

Probably since it was pretty shallow.

I didn’t feel that one back in Long Beach. This is the best video clip that I have seen so far from Bridgewater, NJ. It felt more like some kind of impact here near HVN like in the video. Very hard jolt from side to side and was over in a few seconds. This is more than enough for me and can’t even imagine what a magnitude 9 would feel like they had in Japan a while back.

Yeah, one very hard jolt from side to side here near KHVN. The shades were still swaying for around 5 seconds after it was over.

This is nuts. My whole place suddenly swayed from side to side with all the shades swinging from side to side. I am just east of KHVN. I never felt anything like this before. It was one very strong jolt which was over in a few seconds.

Yeah, also looks like higher dewpoints again with more onshore flow with the continuation of high pressure to our north and northeast especially as the summer goes on.

The Euro seasonal just updated and it has a very wet summer into fall near the East Coast with a very active hurricane season.

Yeah, 2010 was even rough back in my old hometown of Long Beach. Westerly flow kept the beaches much warmer than they typically are. The beaches were way too crowded with almost no parking spaces in the neighborhoods. The summer of 2009 was so much more pleasant with much cooler temperatures and less crowds on the boardwalk and beaches. Looks like we have a shot at mid 70s Tuesday before we get backdoored again on Wednesday and the rains return again.

Multiple stations hit 108° during a drier pattern in 2010 and 2011 which wasn’t nearly as dry as the spring of 2002 was. So we could easily beat that in this much warmer climate if we got into a summer drought with westerly winds. But since we have become so wet with more onshore flow, it hasn’t happened yet. All it took was a brief flash drought in October 2019 to set all time highs by several degrees for the month. Plus we had our first 80° during winter in 2018. So we have been lucky to an extent during the summer that the big highs have been elongated more east of New England instead of flatter into the Carolina’s or Tennessee Valley. When you look at what happened around the Pacific NW a few summers ago it shows how lucky we have been. Just add 2-3° to the 2010-2011 maxes and you see potentially what a drought could do here in the summer. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 October 2019 and February 2018 records were 3-4°warmer than previous records Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 96 0 2 1941 93 0 3 1949 92 0 4 1959 91 0 5 1939 90 0 - 1938 90 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2018 80 0 2 1949 76 0 3 2017 74 0 - 1997 74 0 - 1954 74 0 6 1985 73 0 Seattle surpassed previous summer record by 5° in the much warmer 2020s. Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 108 0 2 2009 103 0 3 1994 100 0 4 1991 99 0 - 1981 99 0 - 1960 99 0 5 2020 98 0 - 2007 98 0 - 1988 98 0 - 1979 98 0 - 1967 98 0

We would easily hit 110° if we ever got a repeat of a drought like the early 2000s in this much warmer climate.

If you want to see a warmer forecast actually verify cooler than forecast these days just amp up the moisture, clouds, and onshore flow. That was the only reason that the heat was muted so much last summer. We generally need very moist patterns these days in order to avoid record heat. EPS April 8-15 New run Old run

Highly amplified pattern with 3 separate 500 mb heights records. In addition to the 500 mb height record with the -NAO, record 500mb heights and surface high pressure were recorded west of Hawaii. Then the record low pressure for this time of year at 500 mb around Chicago. So it’s no wonder the pattern has been so wet. Looks like we reload again in about a week as the northern and southern streams attempt to phase.

Several stations are in 1st place for wettest meteorological spring through April 3rd by a wide margin. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Mar 1 to Apr 3 Missing Count 1 2024-04-03 12.28 0 2 1983-04-03 9.81 0 3 2010-04-03 9.55 0 4 1953-04-03 8.77 0 5 1980-04-03 8.65 0 6 1993-04-03 8.37 0 7 1951-04-03 7.71 0 8 1977-04-03 7.31 0 9 2001-04-03 6.86 0 10 1944-04-03 6.84 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Mar 1 to Apr 3 Missing Count 1 2024-04-03 12.13 0 2 2010-04-03 8.62 0 3 1993-04-03 8.49 0 4 1980-04-03 8.21 0 5 1983-04-03 7.97 0 6 1953-04-03 7.93 3 7 2001-04-03 7.00 0 8 1984-04-03 5.99 0 9 1973-04-03 5.86 0 10 2017-04-03 5.83 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Mar 1 to Apr 3 Missing Count 1 2024-04-03 11.57 0 2 1998-04-03 9.50 0 3 2010-04-03 9.41 0 4 2001-04-03 9.14 0 5 2018-04-03 8.26 0 6 1967-04-03 7.63 0 7 1983-04-03 7.56 0 8 1993-04-03 6.52 0 9 1997-04-03 6.49 0 10 1980-04-03 6.45 0

Based on what I am seeing right now, we at least have a shot at one month from June through October with very excessive rainfall over 10.00”. That would be a scenario with hurricanes or tropical storms making landfall to our south and then tracking north. If we can string together more than one month of excessive rainfall, then the flood threat would be even higher. The worst scenario would be a direct hit which would add the damaging wind and coastal impacts. So we’ll have to monitor the coming season actual storm tracks very closely. It’s even potentially more problematic based on all the record rainfall since last summer.

The statistical predictors based on record SSTs and La Niña are very impressive for the coming hurricane season.

We have had a generally warmer minimum temperature pattern over the last two weeks. But all the clouds, onshore flow, and rain have been keeping the maximums down.

Looks like we are on track for the latest first 80° day of the year following a 40° winter. Models continue the theme of onshore flow, clouds, and chances for rain from time to time through at least April 15th. We will have to be happy with the warmer days into the 60s and hopefully some 70s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature First 80° Day 1 2001-2002 41.1 4-15 2 2022-2023 41.0 4-6 3 2023-2024 40.4 ? 4 2015-2016 40.1 3-9 5 2011-2012 40.0 4-15

My guess is that the 2010s will stand as our snowiest decade in modern times. While the warmer winters have lead to a decline in snowfall during the 2020s ,there will still be good years in the mix. But since we have probably began a declining pattern, there will be the chance for more below average than above average seasons over time.