bluewave

Article Highlights Satellite observations reveal that global mean net flux (NET) at the top-of-atmosphere (or equivalently, Earth’s energy imbalance) has doubled during the first twenty years of this century. The increase is associated with a marked increase in absorbed solar radiation (ASR) that is partially offset by an increase in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) While ASR and OLR changes within sub-periods corresponding to the hiatus (03/2000–05/2010), transition-to-El Niño (06/2010–05/2016), and post-El Niño (06/2016–12/2022) vary substantially, NET flux changes are remarkably stable (within 0.1 Wm−2 per decade), implying a steady acceleration of climate warming The increase in ASR is associated with decreases in stratocumulus and middle cloud fraction and reflection in the Northern Hemisphere, and decreases in middle cloud reflection in the Southern Hemisphere. The cloud changes are especially large in areas with marked increases in sea-surface temperature, such as over the eastern and northern Pacific Ocean Continued monitoring of Earth’s radiation budget and new and updated climate model simulations are critically needed to understand how and why Earth’s climate is changing at such an accelerated pace

For 90° days they were much warmer than even 2010. There was a very +AO +NAO pattern during springs like 1986, 1991, and 2002. So if we ever got a pattern like that in our much warmer 2020s climate Newark would have its first spring with 10+ 90° days. The only thing that has been preventing this has been all the blocking during recent springs. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 1991 8 0 2 1986 6 0 3 2002 5 0 - 1959 5 0 4 2022 4 0 - 2021 4 0 - 2018 4 0 - 2000 4 0 - 1987 4 0 - 1977 4 0 - 1965 4 0 - 1939 4 0 - 1936 4 0 5 2023 3 0 - 2017 3 0 - 2016 3 0 - 2010 3 0 - 2009 3 0 - 2001 3 0 - 1999 3 0 - 1996 3 0 - 1993 3 0 - 1992 3 0 - 1985 3 0 - 1974 3 0 - 1964 3 0 - 1962 3 0 - 1934 3 0 - 1931 3 0

Blocking is always warm when it links up with the Southeast ridge and becomes more south based. But it results in frequent backdoor cold fronts in the spring. So we get a back and forth between warm ups and cool downs with the warm departures ultimately winning out. We had very strong blocking in the spring during 2010 also. But it build down SW to the Great Lakes which made it the warmest spring blocking pattern on record. The ridge axis wound up to our west so we had less onshore flow than this spring.Since with more more S to SW flow. This spring the ridge axis is more into Eastern New England allowing more frequent onshore flow and backdoor cold frontal passages.

Newark is still +3.6 on the month for max temperature departures. But it’s very rare in May to get repeating +15 to +21 days so close to -15 days. So plenty of back and forth. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Max Temperature Departure 2024-05-01 79 10.6 2024-05-02 90 21.3 2024-05-03 66 -3.0 2024-05-04 62 -7.3 2024-05-05 54 -15.6 2024-05-06 76 6.1 2024-05-07 83 12.8

Yeah, these morning warm fronts usually overperform this time of year.

It’s easy to lose track of all the 20”+ flood events they have been getting in recent years.

The general pattern of 2-3 days making it to 80s in the warm spots before clouds,showers, and onshore flow along with cooler temperatures looks to continue. Ensembles keep a trough near by. So chances for showers and thunderstorms every few days with generally above normal rainfall.

Could be some locally heavy downpours with the elevated convection tomorrow morning due to the very high PWATS for this time of year.

The cooling effect was very small so not much of a factor in regard to the big global temperatures. One point to emphasize: the net effect is cooling, but it’s a small effect. Without it, globe would not be much warmer.

A recent study found that the volcanic eruption had a cooling effect.

While El Niño to La Niña transition summers usually have a high number of 90° days, all the added moisture may push back against that influence. Many transition summers have featured at least 40 days reaching 90° at Newark. So anything under that would probably need plenty of rain and clouds. It could also make exceeding a high end summer like 2010 with 50 days reaching 90° difficult to achieve. 33 days has been the average for Newark since 2010. The 51-80 average used to be 23 days. El Niño to La Niña transition summers bolded Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 11 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 2 5 15 8 3 0 33 2023 2 1 1 14 5 6 0 29 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31 2019 0 1 4 14 4 3 1 27 2018 0 4 5 9 14 4 0 36 2017 0 3 5 9 2 3 0 22 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40 2015 0 2 4 11 13 5 0 35 2014 0 0 2 8 2 3 0 15 2013 0 2 4 15 3 1 0 25 2012 0 2 6 16 7 2 0 33 2011 0 1 4 22 4 0 0 31 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 1 5 9 6 2 0 23 1951 0 1 3 9 5 0 0 18 1952 0 0 8 17 2 4 0 31 1953 0 1 9 10 9 3 0 32 1954 0 0 5 10 3 0 0 18 1955 0 1 5 17 9 0 0 32 1956 0 2 6 1 5 0 0 14 1957 0 2 6 12 4 4 0 28 1958 0 0 2 11 6 2 0 21 1959 0 5 5 8 15 6 1 40 1960 1 0 3 2 8 1 0 15 1961 0 0 4 13 8 9 0 34 1962 1 2 6 3 2 0 0 14 1963 0 0 6 11 3 0 0 20 1964 0 3 6 9 5 3 0 26 1965 0 4 9 7 5 1 0 26 1966 0 0 10 14 8 1 0 33 1967 0 0 5 1 1 0 0 7 1968 0 0 4 9 9 1 0 23 1969 0 1 3 4 6 1 0 15 1970 0 2 2 5 8 5 0 22 1971 0 0 6 7 7 2 0 22 1972 0 0 0 16 4 1 0 21 1973 0 0 5 9 12 5 0 31 1974 1 2 2 10 3 0 0 18 1975 0 1 3 3 5 0 0 12 1976 2 0 7 2 4 0 0 15 1977 1 3 1 14 6 1 0 26 1978 0 1 3 8 4 0 0 16 1979 0 2 1 8 9 0 0 20 1980 0 1 3 8 12 3 0 27

This gives new meaning to a backloaded El Niño winter.

First time since 1965 and 1943 that Newark had a 90° or warmer high and a max under 55° during the first week of May. So plenty of contrast between the warm ups and back doors. Most other years had 80° days either side of the 90° day. Our last El Niño to La Niña transition in 2010 had 6 consecutive days over 80° to start the month. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2024-05-01 79 2024-05-02 90 2024-05-03 66 2024-05-04 62 2024-05-05 54 2024-05-06 M 2024-05-07 M Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2018-05-01 83 2018-05-02 90 2018-05-03 94 2018-05-04 88 2018-05-05 76 2018-05-06 67 2018-05-07 75 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2010-05-01 88 2010-05-02 90 2010-05-03 84 2010-05-04 83 2010-05-05 81 2010-05-06 80 2010-05-07 74 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2001-05-01 87 2001-05-02 92 2001-05-03 91 2001-05-04 94 2001-05-05 78 2001-05-06 64 2001-05-07 59 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2000-05-01 69 2000-05-02 68 2000-05-03 64 2000-05-04 71 2000-05-05 87 2000-05-06 90 2000-05-07 94 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1986-05-01 82 1986-05-02 60 1986-05-03 57 1986-05-04 65 1986-05-05 85 1986-05-06 91 1986-05-07 77 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1965-05-01 73 1965-05-02 74 1965-05-03 68 1965-05-04 91 1965-05-05 63 1965-05-06 78 1965-05-07 53 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1955-05-01 66 1955-05-02 66 1955-05-03 69 1955-05-04 83 1955-05-05 91 1955-05-06 72 1955-05-07 71 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1949-05-01 68 1949-05-02 71 1949-05-03 79 1949-05-04 83 1949-05-05 94 1949-05-06 93 1949-05-07 82 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1943-05-01 51 1943-05-02 64 1943-05-03 73 1943-05-04 59 1943-05-05 73 1943-05-06 71 1943-05-07 90 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1939-05-01 62 1939-05-02 62 1939-05-03 57 1939-05-04 71 1939-05-05 79 1939-05-06 88 1939-05-07 91 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1934-05-01 67 1934-05-02 69 1934-05-03 62 1934-05-04 70 1934-05-05 89 1934-05-06 90 1934-05-07 83

Yeah, all the pieces are there for an extremely active season if everything comes together.

The temperature forecast varies a bit from past El Niño to La Niña transitions. Typically the strongest warmth is centered from the Great Lakes into the East. This time the Rockies has the warmest summer departures relative to the means. It looks like we get more onshore flow like recent summers with high dew points rather than dry westerly flow which was typical during past El Niño to La Nina transition summers. Plus tropical systems getting steered into the Southeast and Gulf. So there would be numerous opportunities for the tropical moisture to funnel north.

The Euro is going for a close in tropical tracks rather than recurves with plenty of high pressure over the Northeast.

Top 5 May afternoon temperature drop over two days for areas west of NYC.

Yeah, spring and summer have become our big -NAO seasons.

Newark is on track for its first 90° during May 1-7 without at least 3 consecutive 80° days since 2000. So very unusual to get a 90° day not surrounded by 80° days this time of year. It shows how much resistance these warm ups have been getting from back doors and rain. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2024-05-01 79 2024-05-02 90 2024-05-03 66 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2018-05-01 83 2018-05-02 90 2018-05-03 94 2018-05-04 88 2018-05-05 76 2018-05-06 67 2018-05-07 75 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2010-05-01 88 2010-05-02 90 2010-05-03 84 2010-05-04 83 2010-05-05 81 2010-05-06 80 2010-05-07 74 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2001-05-01 87 2001-05-02 92 2001-05-03 91 2001-05-04 94 2001-05-05 78 2001-05-06 64 2001-05-07 59 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2000-05-01 69 2000-05-02 68 2000-05-03 64 2000-05-04 71 2000-05-05 87 2000-05-06 90 2000-05-07 94

Record warmth and moisture across the world.

Yeah, subsidence caused by coastal overdevelopment and excessive groundwater pumping coupled with rising sea levels is a big concern. This is way before the expected much greater sea level rises in the future once the ice sheets begin to give way in places like Antarctica. We are only one bad hurricane or wildfire season away from one of these big state insurers of last resort going under. They had a good business report on this about a month ago. It’s probably one the biggest stories not getting much national attention. Insurance is fundamental to our whole financial system.

The US is beginning to see the very early innings of how society will begin to adapt to more extreme weather. We have pretty much outsourced our national adaptation policy to the big reinsurance and insurance companies. So they are raising insurance rates and leaving markets with the highest exposure to losses. Adaptation for the individual homeowners in the most effected zones will be to move to another part of the country with lower homeowners insurance and less extreme weather. Just multiply this out across the whole world for the coming decades and you can see the extra pressure it’s going to add to the system. And this is even before the big sea level rises begin. We are already seeing issues with sea level rises of around 6 inches or so. Once we start talking feet people will begin to start seriously thinking about climate change.

Yeah, more annual 90° days overall but coming in shorter runs due to the wetter climate interrupting the individual heatwaves.