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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    +10 months have been fairly common during super El Niño events since 1997-1998. Areas adjacent to the +10s also had very high temperature departures. Regions with the most overlapping high departures across multiple months finished the warmest for DJF. But since all seasonal models default to general climatology due to long range forecast uncertainty, none of the months were forecast ahead of time to my knowledge. The most common locations have been from the Upper Plains and Midwest across to the East. December 2015 was the most extreme for the aerial coverage and magnitude of the 10+ area. As early as November 22, 2015, the EPS weeklies were showing just moderately above average temperatures across the Northern Tier for December. So the long range models gave no indication of what occurred. +10 months since 1997-1998 Dec 1997 Upper Plains to Upper Midwest Jan 1998 Upper Plains to East Feb 1998 Upper Plains to East Dec 2015 Much of East Feb 2016 Upper Plains Mar 2016 Upper Midwest Dec 2023 Upper Midwest Feb 2024 Upper Midwest
  2. bluewave
    I remember that morning really well. It was one of the biggest weather events from 2006 to 2008. The only time a rotating wall cloud came right over my location in Long Beach. So NWS issued a tornado warning for my area due to how strong the rotation was on radar. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 650 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... EASTERN KINGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 715 AM EDT... * AT 644 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CANARSIE... OR ABOUT NEAR CROWN HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... JAMAICA BY 700 AM... KENNEDY AIRPORT BY 705 AM... CEDARHURST BY 710 AM... WOODMERE...VALLEY STREAM...LYNBROOK AND ATLANTIC BEACH BY 715 AM. WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
  3. bluewave
    Yeah, we got the record heat back in early July. This time it’s the high dew points making headlines. Straight from the tropics.
  4. bluewave
    Looks like the heat and humidity will begin to ease up next week.
  5. bluewave
    The list is different for each station due to local dew point variations. The record for Newark was set in 1995. While the JFK record was back in 2016.
  6. bluewave
    NYC just had their 2nd highest dew point of all-time at 79°. Probably some enhancement from being so close to the trees. As other stations weren’t quite as high.
  7. bluewave
    We appear to be early phases of El Niño intensification coinciding with passing the 400 ppm mark. But at least we don’t have the giant Pangea landmass configuration anymore. So while past warmer climates experienced stronger El Niños, this current configuration with the Pacific as it is today probably wouldn’t support something as extreme in the future. https://www.science.org/content/article/strong-el-niños-primed-earth-mass-extinction Geological evidence suggests that before the eruptions, atmospheric CO2 levels were likely about 400 parts per million (ppm), similar to the present day. As they began to tick up, the model showed profound El Niño events began to occur, says Alexander Farnsworth, a study co-author and paleoclimate modeler at the University of Bristol. Warm western waters at the equator spread east, preventing deep, cold waters from reaching the surface. Chaotic weather would have been unleashed worldwide, as happens during today’s El Niños. As CO2 levels rose to 800 ppm and beyond, the El Niños grew more fearsome than any in history, lasting up to 7 years. “You’re seeing this incredible heat buildup, which just persists,” Farnsworth says. https://eos.org/articles/mega-el-nino-may-have-led-to-major-mass-extinction-252-million-years-ago The good news is that the configuration of our continents means that even if the ENSO cycle changes wildly, we won’t experience conditions nearly as brutal as those at the end of the Permian. “The modern ocean is a much better buffer than before,” said Sun. “We have much more complex ecosystems.”
  8. bluewave
    Matching all the summers since 2012 the extent falls significantly behind 2012 during the 1st week of August. Much lower pressures this summer than even the 2013-2025 lower means resulted in the Jaxa extent falling into 12th place behind 2012. Plus we didn’t get the early season preconditioning. But since most of the older MYI has melted over the years, the volume is still very low. Very impressive contrast between the best recent extent in a while closer to the Pacific vs the record low extent on the Atlantic side.
  9. bluewave
    23 out of the last 26 months in NJ takes time to resolve. https://www.northjersey.com/story/weather/2026/07/30/nj-drought-warning-remains-after-severe-july-storms-heres-why/91091896007/?gnt-cfr=1&gca-cat=p&gca-uir=false&gca-epti=z115227p116850n00----l003450c00----e1117xxv115227&gca-ft=71&gca-ds=sophi
  10. bluewave
    Northern areas closer to the heaviest rains around SW CT like BDR this summer have moved out of drought conditions. But the drought continues further south. Though there was also some slow improvement in NJ also. THE BRIDGEPORT CT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 5 2026... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 82 202 PM 97 2005 83 -1 83 MINIMUM 64 458 AM 55 1951 68 -4 68 AVERAGE 73 76 -3 76 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 1.56 2017 0.14 -0.14 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.99 0.67 0.32 0.08 SINCE JUN 1 15.84 7.76 8.08 2.34 SINCE JAN 1 30.11 25.89 4.22 16.94
  11. bluewave
    The Florida dew points have arrived with values around 80° in SNJ.
  12. bluewave
    We had a massive OHC build up prior to 2023-2024. But the WWBs were mostly focused near South America. They were much weaker where they are currently record breaking now. The one change this time was the record WWB and general pattern at the start of the process last November into December associated with tropical cyclone Senyar was really extreme.
  13. bluewave
    We have to wonder what specifically has changed this time around more similar to 1997-1998 allowing such record breaking WWBs? This was the missing feature during the 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niño events. Record WWBs are a key ingredient for more east based El Niños which have been missing since 1997-1998. Just add the accumulated heat in the WPAC to the mix and we get an historic event like this one.
  14. bluewave
    It does look like this El Niño is starting to blend into the pattern. But the trough which is generally located to the ENE of Japan is displaced further south due the ridge and record warm pool that has become a regular feature there. So at least a few areas will match the composite next week especially around Alaska and Western Canada which is better than what we have seen so far.
  15. bluewave
    2020 was a really wild swing for the Arctic. We had the very strong polar vortex during the winter and a late season snow in early May. Then the warmest Arctic summer since 2012 with the Arctic sea ice almost as low. December had a 40” snowstorm in BGM followed by a record rainstorm and warm up on Christmas.
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