bluewave

Has been a common theme in recent years with the heavy road salting especially behind the 18-wheelers.

Some reservoirs in NNJ dipping under 50% with the below normal rainfall since the fall of 2024. https://dep.nj.gov/drought/current-conditions/#reservoir-levels

Yeah, the combination of the warmest SSTs on record for the month of November across sections of the WPAC are boosting the Pacific Jet due to the thermal gradient with the Asia. Plus the record SST warmth around Australia and the Maritime Continent keeping the forcing going in the MJO 4-7 regions also contribute to a faster Pacific Jet. It looks like the long range EPS retrogrades the ridge back to the Aleutians while the ridge is still in the West. Eventually, a jet extension will probably push that ridge further east at least for a time. We also have the falling AAM lag which will lower heights near Greenland later in the month. EPS Strong MJO 4-7 forcing into mid-December

That long duration event helped Newark to reach the 6th snowiest calendar year since the 1840s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec top 10 highest calendar year snowfall Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1907 73.1 123 2 1867 72.0 0 3 1868 68.8 0 4 1978 65.8 0 5 1961 63.5 0 6 2003 63.3 0 7 1854 62.8 0 8 1916 62.7 31 9 1996 62.6 0 - 1862 62.6 0 10 1896 61.4 2

It’s the largest and deepest of the Great Lakes so it can absorb much more heat than the smaller and shallower lakes. So it’s still near record levels of warmth. Part of this is also related to Superior being closest to the record warmth this fall centered in Canada than the other lakes were. So this is an amazing set up for the near record snows that they experienced in November.

Lake Superior is still the 2nd warmest on record since 1995 for December 5th. https://apps.glerl.noaa.gov/coastwatch/webdata/statistic/pdf/all_year_glsea_avg_s.pdf

Places like Marquette are the big snowfall winner with this overpowering Pacific Jet and trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast with cold air flowing over the record warm Lakes. https://www.wpr.org/news/great-lakes-seeing-near-record-warm-waters-this-fall The Great Lakes are seeing near-record warm water temperatures right now, which means there’s a higher chance for lake effect snow when the weather turns cold.As of Thursday, all five of the lakes were around 4 to 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than their long-term average for the last three decades. That’s according to data from the Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.

This was the 6th coldest December 5th low in NYC and 7th coldest max. Data for December 5 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1926-12-05 24 11 1.03 7.9 8 1886-12-05 22 13 0.37 5.3 M 1871-12-05 29 14 0.00 0.0 M 1935-12-05 37 15 0.00 0.0 0 1911-12-05 38 19 0.00 0.0 M 1901-12-05 27 19 0.00 0.0 M 2025-12-05 32 20 0.00 0.0 Data for December 5 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1886-12-05 22 13 0.37 5.3 M 1926-12-05 24 11 1.03 7.9 8 1901-12-05 27 19 0.00 0.0 M 1893-12-05 28 20 0.16 1.5 M 1871-12-05 29 14 0.00 0.0 M 1895-12-05 30 25 0.00 T M 2002-12-05 31 26 0.35 6.0 M 2025-12-05 32 20 0.00 0.0 0 1989-12-05 32 23 T T 0

That was some of my highest snow drifting in Long Beach since February 78.

If we had slightly weaker blocking in 09-10, then NYC could have challenged 95-96. During 10-11 we had over 60” at Newark from 12-26 to 1-27. But the pattern quickly reversed on February putting 95-96 out of reach. I am really grateful that I got to experience 10-11 as my last full winter living in Long Beach.

NYC and LGA continue their record under 4” daily streak while BOS moves into 2nd place for longest daily streak under 6”. Philly is getting closer to their longest daily under 5” streak. DC is currently at their 3rd longest run with no daily 12” amounts. State College is only a few weeks away from their new longest daily under 6” streak. Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1405 0 2025-12-04 2 1394 0 1932-12-16 3 1063 0 1952-01-27 4 1051 0 1963-12-22 5 794 0 1956-03-15 Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1405 1 2025-12-04 2 1051 0 1963-12-22 3 761 0 2020-12-15 4 746 0 1952-02-29 5 744 0 1981-03-04 Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 6 for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1772 0 1992-12-11 2 1378 0 2025-12-04 3 1373 0 1981-12-05 4 1369 0 1987-12-28 5 1054 0 1909-12-25 Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 5 for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1440 0 1987-01-21 2 1438 0 2000-01-24 3 1433 0 1896-12-15 4 1423 0 1970-12-31 5 1409 0 1945-01-15 6 1405 0 2025-12-04 Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 12 for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 8383 0 1922-01-27 2 8043 0 1958-02-14 3 5829 0 2025-12-04 4 5122 0 1936-02-06 5 4768 0 1979-02-18 Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 6 for STATE COLLEGE, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1434 0 1990-12-27 2 1418 1 2025-12-05 3 997 0 2009-12-08 4 835 4 1932-03-27 5 816 4 1956-02-01

Some degree of moderation in the East after the 16th fits December climatology since 1991. But exactly how much of a relaxation remains to be seen. A 10 to 15 day lag following the current AAM reversal would indicate some degree of moderation by near or after the 20th.

It’s interesting that the rapid warming of the North Pacific could be contributing to the 2012 minimum not being surpassed due to a weakening of the AD since then. Article Open access Published: 18 November 2025 Decelerated Arctic Sea ice loss triggered by accelerated North Pacific warming over the past decade https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02882-1 This study offers fresh insights into the mechanisms behind the decelerating decline of Arctic sea ice from 2007 to 2024. We demonstrate that an SST trend in the North Pacific excites a Rossby wavetrain that propagates into the Arctic, driving a downward trend in the summertime Arctic Dipole (AD) index (−0.1 year⁻¹, p < 0.02). This shift induces anomalous surface wind patterns and colder air temperatures, fostering sea ice increases in the central Arctic Ocean near 180 °W (region 1) and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (region 2), with trends of 0.4% year−¹ and 1.1% year−¹, respectively. These regional gains offset losses elsewhere, contributing to the observed slowdown in overall Arctic sea ice decline. Previous studies have documented the upward trend in September Arctic sea ice extent since 200734,35,36, yet its underlying cause remains unresolved. Our findings complement prior research on sea ice outflow11 and ocean heat transport13, while not diminishing their importance. For instance, southerly wind anomalies linked to increased sea ice in regions 1 and 2 (Fig. 2c, d) may reduce outflow through the Fram Strait, while northerly winds near the North Pole transport ice into region 1, enhancing its growth. Contrary to reports of an increasing AD index over the 2007–2024 period relative to the 1992–2006 period13, we attribute the deceleration to a declining summertime AD index, driven by North Pacific SST warming, which agrees with previous studies37,38. This warming, potentially tied to rising greenhouse gas emissions, merits further investigation to pinpoint its origins.

Colder start to December fits within the long term trend since 1991. NYC average temperatures have only risen +0.7° in NYC from December 1st to 16th. But the December 17th to 31st average temperatures over the same period have increased by +4.6°. This matches the streak of 55°+ days every year since 2011 around NYC from the 17th to 25th. So my guess is that the warmest departures we see this month will occur after the 16th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY highest temperature December 17th through 25th since 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024-12-25 59 0 2023-12-25 62 0 2022-12-25 58 0 2021-12-25 60 0 2020-12-25 61 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 55 0 2016-12-25 58 0 2015-12-25 72 0 2014-12-25 62 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 56 0 2011-12-25 62 0

Yeah, the number of 1” snowcover days at ISP the last 7 seasons has been roughly half that of the colder and snowier 70s and 80s at 11 days vs 21 days. Monthly Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0 0 2 3 6 0 0 11 2024-2025 0 0 1 7 5 0 0 13 2023-2024 0 0 0 5 6 0 0 11 2022-2023 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 2021-2022 0 0 0 6 9 0 0 15 2020-2021 0 0 7 0 23 0 0 30 2019-2020 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 2018-2019 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 4 Monthly Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0 0 2 10 6 2 0 21 1988-1989 0 0 7 2 3 3 0 15 1987-1988 0 1 3 15 0 2 0 21 1986-1987 0 0 1 12 10 1 0 24 1985-1986 0 0 3 4 13 0 0 20 1984-1985 0 0 1 13 10 0 0 24 1983-1984 0 0 1 15 0 6 0 22 1982-1983 0 0 4 3 8 0 1 16 1981-1982 0 0 0 19 0 0 4 23 1980-1981 0 0 1 22 0 2 0 25 1979-1980 0 0 1 3 1 1 0 6 1978-1979 0 0 0 3 14 0 0 17 1977-1978 0 0 0 13 22 18 0 53 1976-1977 0 0 6 23 7 0 0 36 1975-1976 0 0 5 8 7 2 0 22 1974-1975 0 0 0 1 5 1 0 7 1973-1974 0 0 0 14 10 1 0 25 1972-1973 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 1971-1972 0 0 0 3 8 1 0 12 1970-1971 0 0 5 11 1 0 1 18 1969-1970 0 0 7 19 6 2 0 34