bluewave

We can see the influence of the tree growth adding artificial cooling to the NYC record when we look at very warm June 1-20 periods for high temperatures going back in time. NYC used to be more evenly matched with Newark. Notice how the spread widened following the tree growth since the 1990s. NYC mean maximum temperature compared to Newark 2026….-4.1 2008….-2.4 1994…..-2.5 1984…..-1.4 1966….+0.3 1957….…0.0 1952…..-0.7 Data for June 1, 2026 through June 20, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 86.0 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 85.4 NJ HARRISON COOP 85.1 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 85.0 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 84.0 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 83.9 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 83.7 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 83.1 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 82.9 CT DANBURY COOP 82.7 NY CENTERPORT COOP 82.6 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 82.5 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 82.4 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 82.4 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 82.2 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 82.2 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 82.2 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 81.9 Data for June 1, 2008 through June 20, 2008 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 84.9 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 84.9 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 84.8 NJ CRANFORD COOP 84.8 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 84.7 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 84.7 NY BRONX COOP 84.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 84.2 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 84.1 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 83.8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 83.5 CT DANBURY COOP 83.4 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 83.0 NY MINEOLA COOP 82.7 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 82.5 NY WEST POINT COOP 82.5 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 82.1 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 82.0 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 81.5 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 81.3 Data for June 1, 1994 through June 20, 1994 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 87.2 NJ CRANFORD COOP 86.1 CT DANBURY COOP 84.9 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 84.8 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 84.7 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 84.6 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 83.6 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 83.5 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 83.4 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 83.4 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 83.3 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 83.1 NY WEST POINT COOP 83.0 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 82.9 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 82.8 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 82.8 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 82.7 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 82.3 NY WEST NYACK COOP 81.6 NY SUFFERN COOP 81.1 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 81.0 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 81.0 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 80.8 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 80.7 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 80.7 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 80.7 NY MINEOLA COOP 80.6 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 80.3 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 80.3 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 79.6 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 79.6 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 78.9 Data for June 1, 1984 through June 20, 1984 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY SCARSDALE COOP 87.5 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 85.4 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 84.9 NJ CRANFORD COOP 84.8 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 84.8 NY WEST POINT COOP 84.8 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 84.7 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 84.5 NY GARNERVILLE COOP 84.2 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 83.8 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 83.7 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 83.5 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 83.3 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 83.3 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 83.1 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 83.1 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 83.1 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 83.0 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 83.0 NY WESTBURY COOP 83.0 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 82.9 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 82.9 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 82.8 CT DANBURY COOP 82.6 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 82.5 Data for June 1, 1966 through June 20, 1966 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 82.6 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 82.6 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 82.3 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 82.3 NJ PATERSON COOP 81.9 NY WEST POINT COOP 81.5 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 81.3 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 81.2 NY SCARSDALE COOP 80.9 CT WATERBURY RADIO WBRY COOP 80.5 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 80.4 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 80.3 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 79.5 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 79.4 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 79.4 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 79.0 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 78.9 CT SAUGATUCK RESERVOIR COOP 78.8 CT DANBURY COOP 78.8 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 78.8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 78.8 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 78.6 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 78.5 NY CARMEL COOP 78.3 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 78.3 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 78.2 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 78.1 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 78.1 NY SUFFERN COOP 78.0 NY STEWART FIELD WBAN 77.9 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 77.9 NY HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY COOP 77.7 NY MINEOLA COOP 77.1 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 76.9 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 76.8 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 76.7 Data for June 1, 1957 through June 20, 1957 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY WEST POINT COOP 85.0 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 84.9 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 84.9 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 84.5 NJ PATERSON COOP 84.5 NY SCARSDALE COOP 84.3 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 84.1 NY SUFFERN COOP 84.1 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 83.5 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 83.2 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 83.0 NY STEWART FIELD WBAN 82.8 NY CARMEL COOP 82.8 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 82.7 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 82.5 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 82.5 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 82.5 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 82.5 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 82.5 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 82.4 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 82.4 NY HEMPSTEAD MALVERNE COOP 82.2 CT DANBURY COOP 82.2 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 82.1 Data for June 1, 1952 through June 20, 1952 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ ELIZABETH COOP 88.6 NJ PATERSON COOP 85.8 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 84.6 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 84.5 NY SCARSDALE COOP 84.4 NY WEST POINT COOP 84.3 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 84.2 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 83.7 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 83.5 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 83.3 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 83.0 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 83.0 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 83.0 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 82.8 CT WATERBURY CITY HALL COOP 82.7 NY MINEOLA COOP 82.6 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 82.5 CT STAMFORD COOP 82.3 CT NORWALK COOP 82.2 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 81.8 NY HEMPSTEAD MALVERNE COOP 81.8

Big shift to a negative tendency last few days as we see a more Niña-like pattern again for a time near the end of the month.

The December forecast map shows the +IOD becoming more neutral following the fall peak with the SSTs rebounding a bit near the Maritime Continent So we’ll have to see how things verify once we get that far out in time. Also note the December forecast chart has warmer SSTs east of Japan and over the Atlantic.

Even a -NAO -AO during a super El Niño can be warm with very little snow like we saw in January 1998. The issue was how strong the El Niño ridge was in the Great Lakes into the Northeast to the south of the block over Greenland. Also note that the forcing to the east of the Dateline didn’t help since it was so strong.

All these days with stronger wind gusts continue dry things out. 2026 is currently in 2nd place for the highest average wind gust through June 19th behind 2025. So this dry and windy pattern has been very persistent the last few years.

While the warmth in the Northeast during super El Niño winters has been a main feature for us, the snowfall has been more variable. Would need SPV activity at least somewhat like 2015-2016 to at least make the snowfall a little more interesting than 1997-1998 and 2023-2024. But probably wouldn’t be able to forecast such a reversal until the winter is already underway. So not many people would be willing to include it in their seasonal forecasts with the warmer risks of such an extreme El Niño event that is developing. Plus not sure if we could go 3 winters in a row with such strong blocks like we had in February 2025 and the 2025-2026 winter at different intervals. 2015-2016 was a reversal of the record +NAO +AO pattern in 2014-2015 +AO. So may not be able to use it as a reasonable blocking analog. Very extreme NAO and AO reversals have become the norm since 2009-2010. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD025288 In January 2016, Asia and North America experienced unusual cold temperatures, although the global average of surface air temperature broke the warmest record during a strong El Niño event. This was closely related to the remarkable phase transition of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which can be explained by stratosphere-troposphere interactions. First, the quasi-biennial oscillation changed to its westerly phase in summer 2015 and the stratospheric polar vortex was stronger in early to midwinter 2015/2016. As blocking did not occur in December, the associated downward propagation signal resulted in a strongly positive AO in late December 2015. Second, after late December, the positive phase of Pacific-North America pattern became apparent in El Niño event, which strengthened the Aleutian anticyclone in the stratosphere. In addition, an equivalent barotropic (“blocking”) anticyclone was established in the troposphere over Asia. The coexistence of blocking over Asia and North America characterized the negative AO and a strong zonal wave number 2 pattern. Due to stronger zonal wave number 2 signals from the troposphere, the stronger stratospheric polar vortex was elongated, with two cyclonic centers over Asia and the North Atlantic in January. The resultant southward displacement of polar vortices was followed by rare snowfall in the subtropical region of East Asia and a heavy snowstorm on the East Coast of the United States.

Yeah, the other overlapping marine heatwaves are adding warmer La Niña-like influences to the mix. Especially when the forcing extends closer to the Maritime Continent which pumps the Southeast ridge. This is why the pattern has been so much warmer in the East this spring into June than we have typically have seen during past developing super El Niños. But the next 10 days look more Nino-like with a trough centered near the Great Lakes and less warmth in the East. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which=cd&csector=conus&var=high&w=rank&p=day&year=2026&month=5&sdate=2026%2F06%2F01&edate=2026%2F06%2F19&cmap=RdYlBu&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Unfortunately, another even more extreme heatwave less than a month later. Translated from French The average thermal anomaly for the next 7 days could reach +9.0°C, which is greater than during the exceptional episode of May 2026, whose return period was estimated at more than 1,000 years. We're just two weeks after breaking that supposed millennial record... The June 2026 heatwave could thus become the most anomalous episode ever observed in France over a one-week period, across all seasons and all durations combined. Furthermore, Monday could enter the Top 3 of the hottest days ever recorded in France, alongside the historical benchmarks of July 25, 2019 (national average temperature of 29.40°C) and August 4, 2003 (29.35°C). If the forecasts hold true, this day would join the most significant dates in French climate history.

Warm spots like Newark are currently in 2nd place for most 90° days by the summer solstice. But the area will see fewer 90° days in late June with the pattern closer to seasonable. So Newark should fall further back closer to 4th or 5th place by June 30th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Most 90° days by June 21st Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1991-06-21 14 0 2 2026-06-21 13 3 3 2021-06-21 12 0 - 1987-06-21 12 0 4 1986-06-21 11 0 5 1988-06-21 10 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Most 90° days by June 30th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1991-06-30 18 0 2 2021-06-30 16 0 - 2010-06-30 16 0 3 1987-06-30 15 0 4 1986-06-30 14 0 5 2026-06-30 13 12 - 1965-06-30 13 0 - 1943-06-30 13 0 6 2024-06-30 12 0 - 1994-06-30 12 0 - 1993-06-30 12 0 - 1880-06-30 12 0

Yeah, a near to record Great Lakes cutter for this time of year.

Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro increases its ONI Nino 3.4 forecast plumes a bit more with the coming July 5th update.

Luckily, a drought in a region like ours without a well defined dry season like the West into the Plains hasn’t historically become as severe yet since we average much more precipitation here. The worst 1960s droughts in the Northeast didn’t have the same consequences as the Dust Bowl in the Plains during the 1930s or the historic drought issues being experienced in the West during recent times. Yes, the NYC reservoirs are doing much better since the last water restrictions in 2001-2002. But agricultural and gardening interests will have issues in a warmer climate era with the heat causing more evaporation than the old days. My area near the CT Shore had one of its driest summers last year and all the vegetation was brown. Even some local reservoirs dipped to low levels leading to some watering restrictions. Some smaller water district areas like portions of NJ they are getting close to having water supply conservation again after some reservoirs running very low a few years ago. We need more rain to remain out of drought since our climate has become so much warmer. Plus the expansive nature of the drought across the entire CONUS will have major impacts for many areas. So just by saying that NYC is doing fine compared to 2001-2002 misses the other consequences of expanding drought.

Really impressive to see the Nino 3.4 actual SSTs just -0.45C cooler than the November 2015 all-time record and its only June.

Hopefully, the EPS is correct about the wetter pattern for late June. Coincides with the cooler pattern and a deeper trough in the forecast. Very long range forecasts are trying to bring back the warmth for early July. So we need to get some rains before more potential drying warmth.

The ridges have become more expansive than the troughs leading to the record drought across the CONUS.