bluewave

Some recent studies show that the local cold blob in the North Atlantic is a result of stronger winds from the more persistent +NAOs rather than a slowdown in the AMOC. ‪Anthony Masiello‬ ‪@antmasiello.bsky.social‬ · 7mo Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole. ‪Sang-Ki Lee‬ ‪@sklee621.bsky.social‬ · 7mo The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests: ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t... The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant… ocean2climate.org

Impressive and record breaking Nino 3.4 lead over 2016 and 1997 for June 14th at 29.32C or +1.61 C.

Could be some great radiational cooling tonight into the upper 40s at usual radiational cooling spots.

The first half of June was solidly more La Niña-like with the strong -PNA and record warmth in the East. Pretty impressive that we got a La Niña-like +SOI pattern while the SOI was solidly negative. But the current pattern heading into mid to late June is more Nino-like. So a continuation of the competing or overlapping influences theme.

Not too big of a surprise that the models have less rainfall in the forecast this week than in earlier forecasts. New EPS forecast June 15-22 Old EPS forecast June 15-22

While the CFS missed the summer PDO drop last summer, it’s still forecasting the PDO to remain negative into next January. Mostly due to the stronger ridge and lighter winds east of Japan. The main reason the current PDO is less strongly negative than recent years at this time is the record +PMM. In the past record +PMM patterns often coincided with a robust +PDO before the warm pool emerged east of Japan.

The area experienced a top 5 warmest first 2 weeks of June. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Top 5 Warmest June 1-14 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2005-06-14 72.3 0 2 2008-06-14 71.4 0 3 2026-06-14 70.2 0 4 2021-06-14 69.9 0 5 2007-06-14 68.0 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2005-06-14 72.4 2 2 2008-06-14 72.0 0 3 1984-06-14 71.5 0 4 1999-06-14 71.1 0 5 2026-06-14 71.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1973-06-14 77.2 0 2 1984-06-14 76.8 0 3 2008-06-14 76.3 0 4 2005-06-14 76.1 0 5 2026-06-14 75.9 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1984-06-14 75.4 0 2 2008-06-14 73.8 0 3 2026-06-14 72.8 0 4 2024-06-14 71.5 0 - 2005-06-14 71.5 0 - 1999-06-14 71.5 0 5 1971-06-14 71.4 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2008-06-14 72.0 0 2 1984-06-14 71.8 0 3 1973-06-14 71.5 0 4 1999-06-14 71.4 0 5 2026-06-14 70.6 0

The spring WWB data was just released. This event is interesting in that the WWBs were displaced a little further north and west off the equator than 2015 and 1997. Those events were focused right on the equator. 2023 was driven by the unusual WWB closer to South America. Also note the weaker zonal flow east of Japan with the strong ridging there driving the -PDO. Even though the WWB average was weaker than 2015 and 1997, the upper ocean warming has been faster especially near Nino 3.4. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/

Looks like the warmth backs off starting Monday with temperatures closer to seasonable for the next 5 to 10 days. Could still sneak in a few 90° days along the way. But most days probably staying in the 80s after this current heatwave ends.

Yeah, the tree growth over the equipment since the 90s when the trees are leafed out from the spring into late fall has been creating an artificial high temperature cooling there. I can remember when the station was out in the open and often had warmer highs than LGA and sometimes Newark. More record highs today around the area. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 252 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 98 DEGREES FRIDAY, JUNE 12 AT LAGUARDIA AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 96 DEGREES, SET IN 2017. RECORDS FOR THE LAGUARDIA NY AREA GO BACK TO 1939. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 252 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE, HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 94 DEGREES FRIDAY, JUNE 12 AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 91 DEGREES, SET IN 2017. THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 72 DEGREES FRIDAY, JUNE 12 AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 70 DEGREES, SET IN 1973. RECORDS FOR THE ISLIP NY AREA GO BACK TO 1963. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 530 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BROKEN IN PHILADELPHIA PA... A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN PHILADELPHIA PA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY OF 95 DEGREES PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1947 AND 2015. RECORDS FOR THE PHILADELPHIA PA AREA DATE BACK TO 1872. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 95 DEGREES TODAY AT JOHN F. KENNEDY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 92 DEGREES, SET IN 2017. RECORDS FOR THE KENNEDY NY AREA GO BACK TO 1948. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT ATLANTIC CITY AIRPORT NJ... A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT THE ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT NEAR ATLANTIC CITY NJ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY OF 94 DEGREES PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2017. RECORDS FOR THE ATLANTIC CITY AIRPORT NJ AREA DATE BACK TO 1943. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 528 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED IN TRENTON NJ... A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT THE TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT NEAR TRENTON NJ TODAY. THIS TIES THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1933. Data for June 12, 2026 through June 12, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 97 NJ HARRISON COOP 97 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 95 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 94 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 93 NY CENTERPORT COOP 93 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 93 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 93 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 93 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 93 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 93 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 92 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 92 NY SYOSSET COOP 92 NY ST. JAMES COOP 92 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 92 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 91 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 91 CT GUILFORD COOP 91 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 91 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 90 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 90 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 90 Data for June 11, 2026 through June 11, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 97 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 97 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 96 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 94 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 93 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 93 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 93 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 93 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 92 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 92 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 92 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 92 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 91

Yeah, the La Ninas have been getting weaker following super El Niños since the early 1970s. This past La Niña was the weakest on record following the 2023-2024 super El Niño. Also the first time that Nino 1+2 didn’t fully cool off between super El Niño events. This lead to the more Nino-like December 2024 with the record +PNA. While the STJ and Nino 1+2 warming were relatively weak vs the Northern Stream, the Gulf Coast got an historic snowstorm in January 2025. Super El Niño ONI and the lowest ONI in the years following NDJ 72…..+2.1 NDJ 73……-2.0 NDJ 82…….+2.2 NDJ 84…….-1.1 NDJ 97…..+2.4 NDJ 99…..-1.7 NDJ 15……+2.8 NDJ 17…..-0.9 NDJ 23…..+2.1 NDJ 25…..-0.5

Multiple record highs on Thursday with a drought upgrade across the area. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 236 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 97 DEGREES THURSDAY, JUNE 11 AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 96 DEGREES, LAST SET IN 2000. RECORDS FOR THE NEWARK NJ AREA GO BACK TO 1931. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 234 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 96 DEGREES THURSDAY, JUNE 11 AT LAGUARDIA AIRPORT. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 96 DEGREES, SET IN 1984. RECORDS FOR THE LAGUARDIA NY AREA GO BACK TO 1939. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 231 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 95 DEGREES THURSDAY, JUNE 11 AT JOHN F. KENNEDY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 93 DEGREES, SET IN 1984. RECORDS FOR THE KENNEDY NY AREA GO BACK TO 1948. In New Jersey, severe drought expanded across much of the northern portion of the state and into New York and eastern Pennsylvania. Abnormally dry conditions expanded across southeastern New York, while moderate drought expanded in southern Connecticut and western Massachusetts. Severe drought also expanded across eastern Massachusetts, eastern Rhode Island, and portions of eastern Maryland. Extreme drought was introduced in southern New Jersey and expanded into Delaware and eastern Maryland. A combination of short- and long-term drought is affecting agriculture as well as groundwater and surface water resources throughout the region.

It appears that the -PDO through the warm pool east of Japan and active MJO 4-7 caused the Aleutian low to split into two weaker low pressure centers. Probably why the -1.5 RONI was so far behind the ONI. But for the Great Lakes into Northeast the El Nino ridge was even stronger than would be expected with a +2.1 ONI. Could also be the general expansion of mid-latitude ridges leading to the lack of a strong trough response in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

Even though the RONI in the 2023-2024 super El Niño lagged the ONI by 0.6, the May 2023 response at 500mb was actually stronger than both 2015 and 2026. My guess is could be related to the early development of 2023 especially in the Nino 1+2 regions. So this is probably why the 500 mb ridge in Canada and warmth going into the winter of 2023-2024 was better aligned with the ONI at 2.1 rather than the RONI at 1.5.

The 850 mb temperatures today near +20C and downslope westerly flow will support 97-99° at the warm spots with enough sun. Seeing some clouds in forecast today. But more sun could support a few local warm spots making a run at 100°.