bluewave

Don’t be surprised if the models like the Euro increase the El Niño regions SST forecasts again on August 5th once the effects of this near record WWB get incorporated into the new model run.

Yeah, this is a nice change following the record heat. The July normals have been increasing steadily across the area. So an average finish near 78.2° at a spot like Newark is still the 26th warmest July. The last time we finished in the top 20s for a cool July was 2009. So departures this month would be higher if the departures were fixed at period like 1961-1990 or even 1951-2000. Adjusting the departures warmer every 10 years really masks or normalizes the long term warming. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Warmest Average Temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 82.7 0 2 2022 82.6 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 2025 82.1 0 6 1994 81.9 0 7 2024 81.3 0 8 2013 80.9 0 9 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 10 2023 80.6 0 - 2019 80.6 0 11 1955 80.5 0 12 1988 80.4 0 13 2002 80.0 0 14 2016 79.9 0 15 1887 79.8 0 16 1983 79.6 0 - 1966 79.6 0 17 1995 79.5 0 - 1949 79.5 0 18 2026 79.4 8 - 2006 79.4 0 - 1987 79.4 0 19 1981 79.2 0 - 1952 79.2 0 20 2015 79.0 0 21 2021 78.8 0 - 1980 78.8 0 - 1878 78.8 0 22 2008 78.7 0 23 1973 78.6 0 24 1876 78.5 0 25 2005 78.3 0 - 1982 78.3 0 26 2018 78.2 91-20 Mean Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Coolest Average Temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1859 70.3 0 2 1862 71.0 0 3 1867 71.1 0 4 1860 71.3 0 5 1871 71.6 0 6 1895 71.7 0 - 1861 71.7 0 7 1884 71.8 0 - 1857 71.8 0 8 1869 72.2 0 9 1902 72.5 0 - 1865 72.5 0 10 1864 72.6 0 11 1904 72.7 0 - 1888 72.7 0 12 1914 72.9 0 13 1923 73.0 0 - 1875 73.0 0 14 1956 73.1 0 - 1863 73.1 0 15 1853 73.3 0 16 1922 73.4 0 17 1858 73.5 0 18 1909 73.6 0 - 1893 73.6 0 - 1874 73.6 0 19 2000 73.7 0 - 1903 73.7 0 20 1996 73.8 0 - 1962 73.8 0 - 1933 73.8 0 - 1918 73.8 0 - 1899 73.8 0 21 1920 73.9 0 - 1915 73.9 0 22 2001 74.1 0 - 1945 74.1 0 23 1969 74.2 0 - 1967 74.2 0 - 1873 74.2 0 24 2009 74.3 0

The -PDO continues to exceed seasonal model forecasts.

This California Coast weather is much nicer than the top 5 warmest June 1st through July 15th that much of the Northeast just experienced. This was a first for such a strong El Niño. All our other developing super El Niños were much cooler. So a continuation of the very warm 2020s summer -PDO/+AMO atmospheric pattern even with such a strong El Niño. This was also the first time the area had 104° to 106° heat during such a strong developing El Niño at any point in the summer. Most other years with such high maximum temperatures were La Ninas. Developing super El Niño June 1 to July 15 average temperature EWR 2026….77.0° 2023….74.8° 2015…..73.8° 1997…..73.2° 1982….70.6° 1972….71.0° HPN 2026….72.6° 2023….70.4° 2015….69.4° 1997…..70.8° 1982….68.5° 1972….66.8° ISP 2026….72.8° 2023…70.8° 2015…70.3° 1997….70.3° 1982…66.7° 1972…66.7° Data for June 1, 2026 through July 24, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 106 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 103 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 102 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 102 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 101 NY CENTERPORT COOP 101 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 Data for June 1, 2023 through August 31, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 97 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 96 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 96 NY WEST POINT COOP 95 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 95 Data for June 1, 2015 through August 31, 2015 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 98 NJ HARRISON COOP 98 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 98 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 96 Data for June 1, 1997 through August 31, 1997 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 100 Data for June 1, 1982 through August 31, 1982 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 102 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 101 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 100 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 100 Data for June 1, 1972 through August 31, 1972 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 98 NJ PATERSON COOP 97 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 97 NY WEST POINT COOP 97 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 96 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec All-time maximum temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 108 0 2 2026 105 161 - 2001 105 0 - 1993 105 0 - 1966 105 0 - 1953 105 0 - 1949 105 0 - 1918 105 0 3 2012 104 0 - 1995 104 0 - 1936 104 0

Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow If July ended today, it would tie with 1936 as the warmest July (and month) on record for the Contiguous U.S. Looking at the forecast for the rest of the month, I suspect we will not quite break the 1936 record. 1:17 PM · Jul 22, 2026 Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow Map showing how many months so far in 2026 (Thru July 17th) each of the 385 "ThreadEx" stations have set or tied a monthly record high or low temperature record. So far, the totals are: 147 months with a new (set/tie) record high and 16 with a new (set/tie) record low (no duplicates). 9:26 PM · Jul 18, 2026

Still have a ways to go to reverse this long term drought. Some areas saw small improvement. But the heaviest downpours were more localized which is common with convection.

An interesting question is why the recent 2023 developing super El Niño was able to break from the warmer 2020s -PDO/+AMO summer atmospheric mid-latitude pattern and this one in 2026 hasn’t so far? We’ll have to just wait and see how things go heading into the fall and winter. Since a lingering -PDO atmospheric pattern could potentially alter the state of the Aleutian low and possibly even where the maximum STJ precipitation zones set up.

The -PDO/+AMO atmospheric pattern is the dominant player this summer so far across the CONUS.

The CONUS didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be having a cooler super El Niño summer. We knew something was going to be different with the record heat that began to emerge back in May. What if anything this says about the rest of the event remains to be seen.

Yeah, I have posted several times on this. Recent studies have found the cold blob has been more a result of stronger winds than related to the AMOC. But it’s possible the +NAO could be a result of other circulation changes from the warming that the climate models haven’t become advanced enough to detect. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello.bsky.social · 8mo Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole. Sang-Ki Lee @sklee621.bsky.social · 8mo The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t... The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant… ocean2climate.org 1

I had some posts a while back that focused on the temperatures during the days that .25 of an inch or more of precipitation fell in NYC. No surprise the average temperatures on those days were only cold enough for 2 out of the last 7 winters during 2020s to make it to average to above average snowfall. This is a function of both storm track and warming temperatures. The colder storm track day seasons were in 2020-2021 and 2025-2026. 2021-2022 made the list from ACY to ISP due to January 2022 being such an outstanding month for storms just east of the benchmark. So the batting average at ISP this decade is a little better at 3 out of 7 years reaching average to above average snowfall. This is a departure from the 2010s when we managed to have average to above average seasonal snowfall even during some of the warmest winters like 2015-2016 and 2016-2017. Those winters featured cold storm tracks. Your Dave Kingman reference was a good one when I mentioned how we have become an all or nothing type snowfall climate around NYC Metro since the 1990s. Either big home runs or strikeouts. Very few seasons in the middle near average anymore these days relative to pre 1990s.

The extreme Arctic warmth during recent summers has been focused more on the Atlantic side. This has left the Pacific sector under relatively better conditions. The circulation shift since 2013 has allowed the September average extent to average in the 4.1 to 4.9 million sq km range.

The next potential record breaking 600 DM ridge amplification will be much further west over the Rockies next week than the recent one over the Upper Midwest. That’s good news for our part of the CONUS. Most summers since 2010 with 100° heat in June and July for our area remained under 100° in August. Hope that recent pattern continues. Still not an El Niño-like pattern but an improvement for the Northeast.

Boston just had their warmest June 1st to July 16th. Significantly warmer than any other developing super El Niño. So an unusually strong mid-latitude or subtropical ridge response for such a strong El Niño. This year was +5.5° above the mean of the previous 5 early summer average. Developing super El Niño June 1st to July 16th average temperatures 2026….73.9° 2023….68.9° 2015…..67.3° 1997…..70.5° 1982….66.9° 1972….68.2°

The weak dipole pattern has resulted in some parts of the Pacific side having their slowest melt since 1994. This pressure reversal since 2013 has allowed the 2012 low extent record to stand to this day. Since 2012 had big Pacific side melt with record dipole pattern. Some of the climate models actually forecast this weaker dipole pattern with the record mid-latitude heatwaves that we have been experiencing. The AMS presentation from 2014 below is worth a viewing when you have some free time. It’s essentially the Northern Hemisphere summer pattern that we have experienced since 2015. Rick Thoman @alaskawx.bsky.social Follow Sea ice is very slowly melting the Chukchi Sea, but only slowly. Ice extent as of July 18 is well above last year and is the highest for the date since 1994(!) in NSIDC data. Sea ice in the Beaufort Sea has also been slow to melt but is now slightly lower than mid-July 2025. #akwx #Arctic #SeaIce ALT 2:01 PM · Jul 19, 2026