bluewave

This closest analog in our area for out of season historic warmth and 500mb ridging was probably February 2018 with that record ridge and early 80° heat. But this heat will be more extended and of a greater magnitude over a larger region. Plus the location and coming a month later allows for much higher actual temperatures.

I mainly posted to show the continuing snow hole near State College. It’s difficult for the map generating program to get the grids perfect with such a large gradient involved with the snowfall. This map below has some added numerical percentages. But the resolution is always going to struggle unless you can create a more zoomed in map.

Our summer forecast will probably come down to how far east this ridge can expand since it has been stuck in place since November. This month we are getting dual ridges out West and in the East. Could be some very impressive summer warmth expanding across the CONUS if we get a similar linking up between the ridges like we have had this month. But the magnitude of the coming Western warmth will be higher than in the East even though several spots like NYC experienced their earliest 80° warmth on record.

The big Miller A storm track east of the APPS has gone dormant for 20 years now. So JB is in one of the worst snow holes around Central PA. State College requires that particular storm track to reach near to above average snowfall. Just like our area needs benchmark snowstorms to reach average to above average snowfall. Miller A Cutters west of the APPS and weak Miller Bs that dryslot Central PA aren’t good for our area or Central PA. At least we finally got a solid benchmark season here after so many below average seasons since 2018-2019. But our issue has been the dominance of all or nothing seasons since 93-94 where we finish well above average or well below snowfall. The mid range 18-29 season which dominated from the 1960s to early 1990s has become a rarity. So our snowfall seasons either hit some nice home runs or we strike out. The risk in a warming climate is that the strikeouts start to become more common than the home runs. But it’s still nice to know that we can get a great bounce back year like this one from time to time.

It’s interesting how we got a much warmer and less snowy version of 2013-2014 and the 2014-2015 the last two winters. This is what I was getting at in my discussions over the last few years. The cold pool and polar vortex over North America was much smaller during the last few winters with a more expansive and stronger 500 mb ridge. So Boston couldn’t challenge their snowiest winter in 2014-2015 with the February 2015 cold and the Great Lakes couldn’t approach 2013-2014 record snow and cold. The last few winters were a warmer and less snowy reflection due to the big global temperature jump which occurred with the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

I can see why the models are going so strong with the El Niño next winter. The last two winters followed the North Pacific strong El Niño precursor pattern. This two winter regime featured a strong -WPO in the Bering Sea and a ridge over the Western North America. But we will need to watch the El Niño development going forward to see if the El Niño is as robust as 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983. Probably need to get through the spring forecast barrier period before we have an idea about next winter. If the previous multiyear composite works out, then the ridge next winter will be centered just north of the Great Lakes into the Northeast. This progression below isn’t a forecast yet, but something to watch for if the El Niño becomes as strong as model forecasts. Plus the sample size only consists of 3 multiyear periods since 1981. 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winter 500 mb composite 2014-2015, 2013-2014, 1996-1997, 1995-1996, 1981-1982, and 1980-1981 composites Roll forward to the 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983 winters

Yeah, I agree. It was significantly deeper than the Blizzard of 1888. Had March 1993 taken a benchmark track instead, then we would have had a 40”+ jackpot with 80-100 mph gusts somewhere in the OKX forecast zones and drifts approaching 6-10 feet high in spots. https://www.weather.gov/media/ilm/Overview_Kocin_Schumacher_Morales_Uccelini.pdf

That was the last time many locations near the coast had a 10”+ snowstorm after February with the exception of our local snow capital and nearby spots back in 2018. Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ After February Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 18.2 1956-03-19 0 15.8 1915-04-04 0 - 15.8 1915-04-03 0 14.8 1958-03-21 0 13.9 1960-03-04 0 12.8 1982-04-07 0 - 12.8 1982-04-06 0 12.7 1993-03-14 0 - 12.7 1956-03-20 0 12.5 1960-03-03 0 12.1 1941-03-09 0 12.0 1941-03-08 0 - 12.0 1924-04-02 0 - 12.0 1924-04-01 0 - 12.0 1852-03-18 0 - 12.0 1852-03-17 0 11.9 1993-03-13 0 11.5 1896-03-16 0 11.0 1867-03-18 0 - 11.0 1867-03-17 0 10.5 1851-03-08 0 Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY After February Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 18.4 2018-03-22 0 17.0 1967-03-22 0 16.0 1982-04-07 0 - 16.0 1982-04-06 0 15.0 1967-03-23 0 14.9 2018-03-21 0 13.5 2009-03-02 0

Some of the strongest backdoor cold fronts on record in the Northeast during the spring have occurred following record warmth. https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ma/east-boston/KBOS/date/2002-4-17 PM 93 °F 51 °F 24 % W 18 mph 23 mph 29.83 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 4:54 PM 93 °F 49 °F 22 % W 17 mph 26 mph 29.82 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 5:54 PM 91 °F 49 °F 23 % W 14 mph 0 mph 29.82 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 6:32 PM 66 °F 50 °F 56 % NNE 26 mph 33 mph 29.87 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy / Windy 6:54 PM 59 °F 50 °F 72 % NNE 25 mph 35 mph 29.91 in 0.0 in Cloudy / Windy 7:54 PM 55 °F 49 °F 80 % ENE 7 mph 0 mph 29.95 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 8:54 PM 55 °F 50 °F 83 % N 8 mph 0 mph 29.96 in 0.0 in Partly

We’ll see if the long range EPS is correct about the backdoor potential for later in the month as it has a return to some Greenland blocking.

Parts of Florida also experienced some snow following a record 80° day back in January. Climatological Data for Pensacola Area, FL (ThreadEx) - January 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-01 68 41 54.5 1.1 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-02 71 51 61.0 7.7 4 0 0.03 0.0 0 2026-01-03 74 58 66.0 12.8 0 1 1.47 0.0 0 2026-01-04 65 51 58.0 4.8 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-05 65 50 57.5 4.4 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-06 76 60 68.0 15.0 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-07 77 64 70.5 17.5 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-08 70 62 66.0 13.1 0 1 T 0.0 0 2026-01-09 75 65 70.0 17.1 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-10 80 62 71.0 18.1 0 6 0.19 0.0 0 2026-01-11 62 43 52.5 -0.4 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-12 52 36 44.0 -8.8 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-13 58 31 44.5 -8.3 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-14 61 45 53.0 0.2 12 0 0.10 0.0 0 2026-01-15 50 32 41.0 -11.8 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-16 65 30 47.5 -5.4 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-17 59 44 51.5 -1.4 13 0 0.03 0.0 0 2026-01-18 49 32 40.5 -12.4 24 0 0.10 T RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 145 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PENSACOLA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES WAS SET AT PENSACOLA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 79 DEGREES SET IN 1957.

It’s great that we got a one month relaxation of the Northern Stream from late January into late February. But now it’s back as strong as ever. This is the main reason that our significant snowfall chances have diminished after February.

The record high of 80° at Central Park was the earliest 80° day on record. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 03-10 (2026) 80 - - - 1990 03-13 (1990) 85 10-14 (1990) 80 214 1945 03-20 (1945) 83 10-19 (1945) 80 212 1921 03-21 (1921) 84 09-30 (1921) 87 192 2021 03-26 (2021) 82 09-18 (2021) 84 175 1998 03-27 (1998) 83 09-27 (1998) 89 183 1989 03-28 (1989) 82 09-23 (1989) 81 178 1977 03-29 (1977) 81 09-19 (1977) 81 173 1985 03-29 (1985) 82 10-15 (1985) 80 199 2025 03-29 (2025) 81 10-07 (2025) 80 191 1917 04-01 (1917) 83 09-20 (1917) 84 171 1978 04-01 (1978) 82 09-21 (1978) 83

It will be interesting to see if this pattern continues into the summer with pieces of the Western heat coming east from time to time.