bluewave

Relatively cooler over the Midwest due to the record rainfall with the severe storms leading to the new tornado record for Illinois.

https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/wxstation/perspectives/perspectives.html

Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 1d Nepal observed their warmest August nationwide, with the most anomalous region being the border with China/Tibet. It is hard to imagine that record warm temps did not hasten the bedrock/glacier collapse disaster.

New all-time weekly Nino 1+2 ONI at +4.6. This surpasses the previous record set back in June 1983 of +4.5. The highest 1997-1998 was able to achieve was only +4.0. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ 02SEP2026 25.3 4.6 13AUG1997 25.0 4.0 29JUN1983 27.0 4.5

Many spots in the Northeast are in the top 5 or 10 for 80° days through September 5th with the early start back in March.

Record number of 80° days away from the sea breeze in NJ through September 5th. Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ Most 80° days by September 5th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-09-05 101 0 2 2010-09-05 98 19 3 2015-09-05 97 0 4 2024-09-05 96 0 5 2022-09-05 93 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Most 80° days by September 5th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-09-05 104 0 2 2010-09-05 102 0 - 1993-09-05 102 0 - 1991-09-05 102 0 3 1994-09-05 101 0 4 2015-09-05 100 0 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO, NJ Most 80° days by September 5th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-09-05 102 0 2 2024-09-05 99 0 3 2015-09-05 98 0 - 2010-09-05 98 1 - 2008-09-05 98 1 4 2011-09-05 97 0 5 2022-09-05 94 0

PA is in currently 2nd place for the most tornadoes behind 1998.

Looks like the OKX forecast zones moved up to 8th place so far for annual flash flood warnings while the PHI zones are in 1st place. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=bar&opt=wfo&station=OKX&state=CT&fema=7&limit=no&c=single&phenomena=FF&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2026&s=jan1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Models really missed how east based an event this has become. Not that big of a surprise since they can’t really can’t forecast the WWBs with that much precision beyond a week or two. This is the reason that Nino 3.4 leveled off in August and Nino 4 declined. It has resulted in the highest Nino 1+2 daily anomaly on record and it’s only early September.

Record number of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for PA this year. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=bar&opt=state&station=DMX&state=PA&fema=7&limit=no&c=svrtor&phenomena=TO&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2026&s=jan1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Even more open water than we have recently seen this time of year near the North Pole. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/arctic/a-worrying-snapshot-satellite-image-shows-large-patches-of-open-water-less-than-40-miles-from-the-north-pole We can see open water at times at the North Pole but I don't think it's ever been this extensive," Stroeve told Live Science in an email.

In terms of 95°+ days it was a pretty high ranking for many locations. Areas away from the sea breeze made it to 35 days of 90° and over 40 days at the Philly stations. But this would have been a cooler summer in the past during developing super El Niños. Most summers following super El Niños had more heat than the one while it was still developing like this year. So we would expect more heat than this one during the next few summers. Since the ridge axis this summer was out near 100W, the strongest heat this summer in our region was from Philly to ACY. We have been getting the stalled fronts with too much convection here to have the kind of heat areas just to our south did. The start of September looks like more of the same with the main heat dome staying to our west. Maybe we can get a day or two next week near 90° but it could stay closer to Philly. Have a very happy birthday coming up. You pick the perfect spot at a higher elevation which is cooler than areas just to your south and east. Summer 2026 heat dome centered near 100W Next 10 days look like more of the same Past developing super El Niño summers have been much cooler with more troughs than ridges

While the heat will be focused to our west, it will be the warmest September 1st to 15th for the CONUS. We’ll have to see if a piece of that heat can come east in mid-September. Models have been waffling back and forth with how far north the 90s come. Generally a continuation of the summer pattern.

SMQ approached their all-time highest September dewpoint yesterday at 77°. CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Newark/Liberty TSTM 77 72 84 E5 29.93R Teterboro TSTM 76 73 91 E7 29.94R Caldwell TSTM 76 75 97 NW9 29.96R FOG Somerville LGT RAIN 79 77 94 N3 29.91R FOG Linden CLOUDY 78 72 80 SE8 29.94R Perth Amboy N/A 75 N/A N/A E6G13 N/A Sussex NOT AVBL Andover N/A 79 73 82 E3 29.96R Trenton MOCLDY 84 75 74 CALM 29.92S HX 92 Millville N/A 84 76 76 CALM 29.93F HX 93 Atlantic City PTCLDY 88 75 65 SW9 29.94S HX 97 Wrightstown MOCLDY 84 75 74 S3 29.92R THUNDER HX 92 Toms River PTCLDY 81 75 82 S3 29.94S

The record finished very close to the ECMWF SEAS5 forecast at the top of the range near +1.64° to +1.65°.