bluewave

Even with these CFS WWB forecasts being too weak leading to unrealistically low Nino 1+2 values, it increases the WWBs again over the winter and continues into next summer.

The comparison was to a low tracking in directly from the east over NYC like last week which would be further north than December 1992 that came into the Delmarva.

I was on Long Island for the 1992 Nor’easter. The biggest impact was the record coastal flooding up to that time and hurricane force easterly gusts. We got 3-5” of rain followed by some light snows when the low departed. That event was further south near the Delmarva than the low which tracked right into NJ in September from the east. Data for December 9, 1992 through December 13, 1992 Total precipitation Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 4.74 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 4.68 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 4.40 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 3.69 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 3.66 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 3.60 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 3.59 NY PLEASANTVILLE COOP 3.57 NY MINEOLA COOP 3.54 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 3.52 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3.45 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 3.40 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 3.30 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3.25 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 3.22 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 3.19

December 1992 was a big rainstorm in Southern New England shoreline areas and NYC Metro. I guess our definitions of the geographic regions are a little different. To me anything north of the Hartford to Providence line is Central New England. That event came into the Delmarva. So a retrograding system right into NJ would probably be mostly rain in the same regions which got rain in December 1992. Plus during the 1997-1998 winter the ridge axis was further north along with the 540 thickness line than 92-93 or the 91-92 winter. The January 1992 nor’easter which got pulled in from the east was also a big rainstorm for the NYC Metro area.

During the winter the antecedent warmth with a seasonally stronger STJ than the fall would prevent much snow from getting south of Central and Northern New England with a loop in from the East. We saw tracks like this but even further south during the January 1992 Nor’easter which got pulled in from the east and also. Plus December 1992 came in closer to the Delmarva and you had to be pretty far north to cash in on that one compared to NYC Metro.

Only for Central to Northern New England since it tracked directly into the Jersey shore.

Very impressive Southeast ridge in the means since March. So just a continuation of the ongoing pattern. Very 1997-1998 type storm track forecast with the tropical low lifting north from the Gulf through the East into early next week. Sometimes these October storm tracks are an early indication of what we get during the winter. But this is a much stronger east based event than that one was.

Sometimes these October storm tracks can give us an early indication of what we will see for the winter. The OP Euro and the AIFS track the system from the Gulf up through our area by later Sunday into Monday. This was one of the active storm tracks during the 1997-1998 super El Nino. This is also an east based event but much stronger than that one was.

Very impressive to get a near record 594+dm Southeast ridge during an El Niño October. So a continuation of the ridge axis located further south than usual since last May. The typical -EPO October El Niño ridge will probably finish this month the furthest south for an El Niño October.

This 26-27 forecast is significantly warmer than the forecast for 23-24 was especially across the Northern States. Not a surprise given how much stronger this super El Niño is than 23-24. That forecast was much too cool for what verified. Kept the same scale stopping at just +2C. We can see how much warmer the actual winter was than the forecast. Included a 2nd verification in F below as it was the warmest winter on record for the CONUS. The biggest miss that winter was the Upper Midwest and Plains which was forecast as near normal and verified +10°F. In ° F which turned out to be the warmest winter on record for the CONUS.

It’s a really good question. The very end of the CFS run next June continues the Nino in 3 and 1+2 due to the WWBs shifting the warm pool east. We can also see the model showing a significant subsurface warm pool in the EPAC at the end of the run. Plus the current CFS is much too cool for its initialization of 1+2 this week. So its forecasts are already too weak. We are in uncharted territory with how extreme the warming is becoming with this El Niño. So we really don’t have any similar analogs to draw from. All we can say is that 82-83 was a significantly weaker event and managed to linger into early July in the Nino 1+2 regions. There has never been a +30C warm pool pushed this far to the east in the Pacific before. So we don’t really know for sure how quickly the record WWBs will relax heading into next June. All the models keep the WWBs going until the end of their runs next June. But it’s interesting that they are all saying the same thing including the recent extended Euro runs. These models aren’t really designed to see much past the spring forecast barrier and we are still only in the fall. Plus there isn’t any data on events this strong and how they might influence the pattern once we get past the spring.

There aren’t really any inverse temperature correlations between October and the winter. When relationships do exist, it’s more on a CONUS and North American level of similar October to winter temperatures. For instance very warm Octobers across the CONUS and North America sometimes continue into the winter. Same for very cold Octobers continuing into the winter. Our last much weaker super El Niño in 2023 -2024 had a very warm October in the Northeast and this continued for the winter. Other times the October pattern doesn’t continue into the winter. So it’s mostly magnitude dependent across a larger area.

All-time records continue to increase. This was the first +5.3 week ever for Nino 1+2 ONI. Nino 3 and 3.4 records are also being set. Highlighting 1+2 due to how low the models have been here. While the Euro is much better than the CFS, they both missed how east based this has become. The interesting thing about both models is that they start to show a second rise in Nino 1+2 heading into next spring on the Euro and early summer on the CFS. The Euro October update was just issued. Nino 3 staying above +4 into February would also be a first . The previous Nino 3 February record was +2.8 in 1998. So it’s possible that the +30C warm pool makes it as far east as Nino 3 for the first time. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ 30SEP2026 26.1 5.3 29.0 4.0 29.9 3.2 29.9 1.2 04FEB1998 28.0 2.4 28.9 2.8 28.9 2.3 28.8 0.7

Last month was N to a little AN for most stations with the exception of the immediate Long Island Sound stations like BDR and LGA. All the other months back to March were also some degree of AN. With such extensive ridging and record CONUS warmth, there wasn’t much cooler air around. So the few cooler spots last month like LGA and BDR had to rely on lower daytime highs rather than cooler minimums. May managed to finish a little above even with the cooler conditions just to our West. The record warm day where parts of the area reached 100° for the first time in May put that month over the top. So the theme has been back and forth with the warmer departures being more impressive than the cooler ones. October looks like a continuation of the same theme. Very warm start to the month with a cool down this week. But we warm right back up into the 70s again. Whether we reach 80° again by mid-October will be contingent on sky conditions, wind direction, and how far north the moisture near the Gulf gets.

No need to search very far since it has been the dominant pattern since March.