bluewave

Impressive tidal piling now on the GSB as the high tide from earlier today is having trouble draining out. I used to live not far from the tide gauge in Lindenhurst located close to Chateau La Mer. While the model did pretty well with this high tide this morning, it missed how much higher the water level is now than the forecast.

Getting some breaks of sun here between the bands. Great looking warm seclusion underway. Even some clearing near the center as we sometimes see with these.

At least MPO was able to drop below 40° this September. While still the 4th warmest monthly minimum for September, it was a little cooler than the last few years. JFK finished 2nd warmest on their minimum for September so far. Plenty of onshore flow this month keeping the mimimums up. Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Sep Top 5 warmest minimum temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 44 0 2 2025 41 0 - 2024 41 0 - 2023 41 0 - 1933 41 0 3 2018 40 0 - 2011 40 0 - 2002 40 0 4 2026 39 5 - 2022 39 0 - 2021 39 0 - 2012 39 0 - 1952 39 0 5 2010 38 0 - 2009 38 0 - 2004 38 0 - 2003 38 0 - 1954 38 0 - 1945 38 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep Top 5 warmest monthly minimum temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 56 0 - 2015 56 0 2 2026 54 5 - 2021 54 0 - 2018 54 0 - 2017 54 0 - 2002 54 0 - 1994 54 0 - 1968 54 0 3 2010 53 0 - 1987 53 0 - 1982 53 0 - 1960 53 0 4 2025 52 0 - 2012 52 0 - 2008 52 0 - 2003 52 0 5 2023 51 0 - 2016 51 0 - 2014 51 0 - 2004 51 0 - 1999 51 0 - 1971 51 0 - 1952 51 0

Impressive subtropical or hybrid characteristics with that one and also during an El Niño year.

Gorgeous sunset this evening near the CT Shoreline.

The AIFS did a nice job looping this back to the coast from over 220 hrs out last week.

Yeah, the mean tide forecast tomorrow for the GSB is just below the Hurricane Irene mark which maxed out at the +5.5 level.

Yeah, Sandy Hook could reach the 9ft level or a bit higher which would only require a 3.5 foot surge on top of the 5.5 astronomical level with the full moon tomorrow morning. A 4 foot surge coinciding with the morning height tide would get to the 9.5 foot level. The back bays of Long Island could see an even higher surge relative to their locations. The models have a tide level in Freeport forecast close to 8 foot mark. That would approach the Hurricane Irene tide level.

Latest tide forecast gets Sandy Hook near the 10th highest tide level tomorrow and highest tide of the 2020s. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8531680

Latest SPC HREF Max is similar to the RGEM showing 5”+ potential on Long Island where the best banding develops NW of the center. But the location of these bands often shifts right up to storm time. So we’ll have to review again later with the new guidance today.

Another PDO drop as we approach the all-time warmest SSTs this time of year ENE of Japan and south of the Aleutians.

The Euro and NAM keep the 10”+ maxes offshore due to the loop back west occurring further to the south. So the exact track will make a big difference here. But all the guidance is saying the same thing just with different tracks.

Really impressive hybrid system on the 0z Euro. Develops a +20C warm seclusion type core as it loops back to the coast. 75 mph gusts just offshore with 60-70 mph gusts close to the shore. An IVT like feature with 4-5” back to the coast and a tropical-like 13” max offshore. So our strongest nor’easter of the 2020s so far. The tide surge forecasts will probably take a few days to catch up with coastal flooding levels since they usually become accurate within 24-36 hours of the event. The exact location of the loop back to the coast will be important as to timing and location of the highest tides.

A combination of Cocorahs and COOP sites. Your area does pretty well and is on par with MPO. It’s too bad they don’t have a contract snowfall observer at MPO. Since there is quite a bit of missing snowfall data there when there weren’t volunteer observers nearby in the past. Data for October 1, 2025 through April 30, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 60.4 PORTLAND 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 50.2 BOWMANSTOWN 3.0 WSW CoCoRaHS 41.8 PALMERTON 5.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 41.6 TATAMY 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 39.0 SLATINGTON 6.0 WSW CoCoRaHS 38.7 TREMONT 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 37.9 MARTINS CREEK COOP 37.7 SCHNECKSVILLE 1.7 ENE CoCoRaHS 37.4 NAZARETH 1.1 W CoCoRaHS 36.8 ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 35.5 Data for October 1, 2025 through April 30, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. RICHMONDALE 0.1 NE CoCoRaHS 59.1 MILFORD 8.7 NW CoCoRaHS 58.1 MOUNT POCONO 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 57.9 DYBERRY 2.1 W CoCoRaHS 56.7 CANADENSIS EAST COOP 56.1 PLEASANT MOUNT 1 W COOP 53.8 EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 53.5 LORDS VALLEY 2.5 SE CoCoRaHS 52.6 CANAAN - 11 CoCoRaHS 52.3 MOSCOW 4.9 E CoCoRaHS 51.5 EFFORT 3.2 NNW CoCoRaHS 46.9 PROMPTON DAM COOP 42.0 WEST HAZLETON 3.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 38.5 WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 37.8

It’s interesting that the greatest October +EPO variation from the El Niño -EPO mean occurred in 1982 and 1997. October 2023, 2015, and 1972 were more Nino-like in that regard. But the North Pacific low is becoming more active than it has been which you pointed out in your post.