bluewave

Following the storm track shift in 2018-2019, we were only able to generate KU tracks in December 2020, late January into early February 2021 and January 2022. The complete opposite of 2002 to 2018 when coastal KU tracks were much more frequent. Even during the 1970s and 1980s we would get KU tracks every few years. Like in 1978, 1979, 1982, 1983, and 1987. The difference back then was that EWR,NYC, LGA, JFK, and ISP didn’t exclusively need KU tracks to reach around 25” on the season. So my guess going forward is that if we don’t see a revival of KU tracks, then the major sites around NYC and nearby NJ will finish this year with below average snowfall under 25”. The colder spots near the North Shore of Long Island could potentially nickle and dime there way to 25” since they currently have the highest totals. But some of those spots may actually average closer to 30” between the major observing sites where LI gains some elevation. I don’t think anyone on Long Island is going to reach 30” without a major benchmark storm later in this season.

It would be nice if we could set some new type of storm track precedent for the post January 20th period during La Nina winters. Since nearly all of our February La Nina KU events were preceded by KU events in December to mid January since the 1960s. We haven’t really had a February or even March KU during a La Niña without at least a significant coastal snowstorm track earlier in the season for some portion of the I-95 corridor. The late January and early February 2021 KU was preceded by the KU in mid December 2020. The burst of record March 2018 KU activity followed the record early January 950 mb benchmark blizzard. The February and March 2017 KUs came after the early January one. The March 2009 KU followed the mid January 2009 one. The record February 2006 KU around NYC Metro event was two months after the early December 2005 coastal snowstorm track that came in just under official KU status. The March 2001 sub KU coastal track snowstorm followed official KUs in late December and January.

It’s one of the more challenging parts of the country to forecast for due to the location around the NY Bight. Statewide Alaska likely had its coldest day since the big January 2012 +EPO. Rick Thoman ‪@alaskawx.bsky.social‬ Follow High temperatures (ºF) in and around Alaska on Saturday. Very cold except for the lower Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians. No daily record lows but statewide likely the coldest day since late January 2012. #akwx #weather @climatologist49.bsky.social ALT 11:55 AM · Jan 4, 2026

You realize that this forum is much larger geographically than the 5 boroughs of NYC.

The 33° to 34° average temperature from EWR to ISP in December felt much colder due to the strong winds. Plus we have become accustomed to Decembers closer to 40° since 2011. But it would have been warmer than average by mid 1800s standards. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 39.7 39.7 2025 33.2 33.2 2024 37.9 37.9 2023 44.3 44.3 2022 38.3 38.3 2021 44.5 44.5 2020 38.0 38.0 2019 37.6 37.6 2018 39.4 39.4 2017 34.6 34.6 2016 37.7 37.7 2015 49.8 49.8 2014 40.1 40.1 2013 36.9 36.9 2012 41.1 41.1 2011 42.5 42.5 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 31.9 31.9 1872 24.7 24.7 1871 28.4 28.4 1870 33.6 33.6 1869 32.9 32.9 1868 28.2 28.2 1867 26.7 26.7 1866 30.7 30.7 1865 35.2 35.2 1864 31.9 31.9 1863 31.4 31.4 1862 32.7 32.7 1861 33.6 33.6 1860 28.8 28.8 1859 29.3 29.3 1858 32.7 32.7 1857 37.0 37.0 1856 29.8 29.8 1855 33.6 33.6 1854 28.8 28.8 1853 32.8 32.8 1852 39.7 39.7 1851 27.2 27.2 1850 33.8 33.8 1849 33.1 33.1 1848 39.9 39.9 1847 36.3 36.3 1846 31.3 31.3 1845 27.6 27.6 1844 33.0 33.0 1843 33.4 33.4

This was a solid 4-8” event for most of the OKX forecast zones from Newark on to the north and east. 506 NOUS41 KOKX 271454 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-280254- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 954 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... 4 NNW New Fairfield 9.4 in 0901 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter 1 E Sherman 8.5 in 0800 AM 12/27 Cocorahs 1 SE Wilton 7.3 in 0807 AM 12/27 Public New Canaan 7.2 in 0800 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 3 SSE Weston 7.1 in 0715 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Bridgeport Airport 7.1 in 0700 AM 12/27 Official NWS Obs 2 ENE New Canaan 7.1 in 0528 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Brookfield 6.5 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Bethel 6.5 in 0700 AM 12/27 Emergency Mngr Norwalk 6.4 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 4 SSE Easton 6.2 in 0600 AM 12/27 Public Ridgefield 2.4 NNE 6.1 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Shelton 6.0 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Stratford 6.0 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Bethel 4.5 SSE 6.0 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 1 W Stamford 5.9 in 0605 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Stamford 1.0 S 5.4 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Rowayton 5.2 in 0914 AM 12/27 Public 4 NNW Ridgefield 5.2 in 0903 AM 12/27 Public ...Middlesex County... Durham 8.0 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Old Saybrook 2.9 NNE 8.0 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Clinton 8.0 in 0645 AM 12/27 Broadcast Media 1 SW Westbrook 7.7 in 0240 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Higganum 7.0 in 0800 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Middlefield 1.4 W 6.5 in 0600 AM 12/27 COCORAHS ...New Haven County... Wallingford 3.1 N 10.5 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 1 NNW Meriden 9.0 in 0350 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Waterbury 8.5 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 1 NW Cheshire 8.1 in 0830 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter 3 ENE North Branford 7.5 in 0915 AM 12/27 NWS Employee 2 NW Hamden 7.3 in 0647 AM 12/27 Public 4 SSE Durham 7.1 in 0200 AM 12/27 Public Madison Center 1.3 N 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Guilford 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/27 CO-OP Observer 3 ENE Branford 6.5 in 0647 AM 12/27 Public Wallingford Center 1.1 N 6.0 in 0828 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 1 NW Ansonia 6.0 in 0531 AM 12/27 Public 1 SW Branford 5.4 in 0700 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter ...New London County... New London 7.1 in 0730 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 5 SSE Salem 7.0 in 0603 AM 12/27 Public Oakdale 6.5 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS East Lyme 6.5 in 0600 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Niantic 6.5 in 0530 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Uncasville 2.4 NNW 6.3 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Mystic 6.1 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Old Lyme 6.0 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Norwich 6.0 in 0700 AM 12/27 COOP Pawcatuck 5.8 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Waterford 5.5 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Mystic 5.4 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Norwich 4.9 in 0600 AM 12/27 COCORAHS ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... 2 NNE Franklin Lakes 4.1 in 0911 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Montvale 1.8 ESE 4.1 in 0800 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Oakland 4.0 in 0800 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 1 N River Vale 3.8 in 0801 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Tenafly 3.8 in 0730 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Fair Lawn 3.5 in 0830 AM 12/27 COCORAHS River Edge 0.4 NNE 3.5 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 1 S River Edge 3.3 in 0720 AM 12/27 Public North Arlington 3.0 in 0830 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Lyndhurst Twp 1.6 NW 3.0 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS ...Essex County... West Orange Twp 0.6 WNW 3.8 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Montclair 3.5 in 0800 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 1 W Essex Fells 3.3 in 0933 AM 12/27 Public 1 WSW Glen Ridge 3.2 in 0730 AM 12/27 Public Maplewood 3.1 in 0830 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 2 NE Springfield 3.0 in 0400 AM 12/27 Public ...Hudson County... Harrison 4.0 in 0442 AM 12/27 CO-OP Observer Hoboken 3.9 in 0700 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter ...Passaic County... 3 NE West Milford 4.2 in 0917 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Little Falls 3.6 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS ...Union County... Newark Airport 4.2 in 0700 AM 12/27 Official NWS Obs 1 S Mountainside 3.1 in 0900 AM 12/27 Public 1 NNW Westfield 3.0 in 0911 AM 12/27 Public 1 NW Cranford 3.0 in 0717 AM 12/27 Public 1 NE Union 3.0 in 0200 AM 12/27 Public Clark 2.8 in 0846 AM 12/27 COCORAHS New Providence 2.8 in 0730 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 1 NW Fanwood 1.6 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS ...New York... ...Bronx County... 1 NNE Fordham 4.3 in 0400 AM 12/27 Public 1 NNE East Tremont 3.0 in 0841 AM 12/27 Public ...Kings County... 1 SSE Williamsburg 4.3 in 0715 AM 12/27 Public Sheepshead Bay 4.0 in 0805 AM 12/27 Public 1 N Bay Ridge 3.1 in 0603 AM 12/27 Public ...Nassau County... Farmingdale 5.0 in 0900 AM 12/27 Public 1 N Syosset 4.6 in 0855 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter 1 SE Malverne 4.1 in 0850 AM 12/27 Cocorahs Massapequa Park 4.1 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Massapequa 4.1 in 0700 AM 12/27 Amateur Radio Malverne 0.5 SE 4.1 in 0630 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 1 N Centre Island 4.0 in 0529 AM 12/27 Public 1 SW Levittown 4.0 in 0202 AM 12/27 Public 1 WSW Plainview 3.5 in 0841 AM 12/27 Public Carle Place 3.1 in 0645 AM 12/27 Amateur Radio Herricks 2.9 in 0805 AM 12/27 COCORAHS ...New York (Manhattan) County... Central Park 4.3 in 0700 AM 12/27 Official NWS Obs ...Orange County... 2 SSW Stewart Airport 5.7 in 0724 AM 12/27 Public 4 SSE Chester 5.1 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 2 NW Stewart Airport 5.0 in 0628 AM 12/27 Amateur Radio Monroe 5.0 in 0500 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter 3 WNW Warwick 4.0 in 0603 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Port Jervis 3.6 in 0630 AM 12/27 COCORAHS ...Putnam County... Cold Spring 7.8 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Nelsonville 0.3 S 7.2 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 2 W Putnam Valley 5.7 in 0605 AM 12/27 NWS Employee ...Queens County... 1 WSW Howard Beach 4.6 in 0701 AM 12/27 Broadcast Media NYC/JFK 4.2 in 0700 AM 12/27 Official NWS Obs NYC/La Guardia 4.1 in 0700 AM 12/27 Official NWS Obs 1 SW Russell Gardens 3.9 in 0801 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Little Neck 0.3 SE 3.9 in 0800 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 1 NNE Elmhurst 3.7 in 0815 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter 2 S Elmhurst 3.5 in 0715 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter ...Rockland County... Stony Point 5.0 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS New City 4.2 in 0815 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter ...Suffolk County... Ridge 1.5 SE 8.0 in 0500 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Babylon 7.5 in 0645 AM 12/27 Amateur Radio Orient 7.5 in 0615 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter 1 W Shirley Airport 7.1 in 0914 AM 12/27 Public Mattituck 7.0 in 0840 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter 2 SE Ridge 6.6 in 0904 AM 12/27 NWS Employee Islip Airport 6.6 in 0700 AM 12/27 Official NWS Obs Upton (NWS Office) 6.5 in 0700 AM 12/27 Official NWS Obs 1 WNW East Patchogue 6.3 in 0915 AM 12/27 Public 1 NNE Manorville 6.3 in 0730 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Baiting Hollow 6.2 in 0700 AM 12/27 COOP 1 NNE Sayville 6.2 in 0700 AM 12/27 NWS Employee 2 NNW Islip 6.1 in 0935 AM 12/27 Public 3 WNW Riverhead 6.1 in 0922 AM 12/27 NWS Employee 1 NNW Remsenburg-Speonk 6.1 in 0740 AM 12/27 Public Center Moriches 5.9 in 0600 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 1 WNW Sound Beach 5.8 in 0700 AM 12/27 NWS Employee Stony Brook 5.8 in 0700 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter 1 SSE Bohemia 5.6 in 0550 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Setauket-East Setauket 2.1 W 5.5 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Blue Point 5.4 in 0818 AM 12/27 Cocorahs Blue Point 0.3 ENE 5.4 in 0800 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 1 N Smithtown 5.3 in 0920 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Deer Park 1.0 NE 5.3 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Islip Terrace 0.5 W 5.3 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Deer Park 5.3 in 0600 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Bay Shore 5.2 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 1 WSW Poquott 5.2 in 0425 AM 12/27 NWS Employee Sayville 5.1 in 0700 AM 12/27 NWS Employee 1 ESE East Patchogue 5.1 in 0541 AM 12/27 NWS Employee 1 ENE Commack 4.5 in 0807 AM 12/27 Broadcast Media 1 SW Mount Sinai 4.5 in 0739 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter 1 S Nesconset 4.4 in 0933 AM 12/27 Public Mattituck 1.4 SSE 4.2 in 0700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Amityville 4.0 in 0800 AM 12/27 COCORAHS ...Westchester County... Armonk 6.4 in 0200 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter Shrub Oak 6.0 in 0600 AM 12/27 COOP Shrub Oak 6.0 in 0600 AM 12/27 COCORAHS 1 N Port Chester 5.9 in 0857 AM 12/27 Public 2 NNE White Plains 5.8 in 0800 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter 1 SE Croton-on-Hudson 5.7 in 0800 AM 12/27 Trained Spotter White Plains 5.4 in 0800 AM 12/27 Amateur Radio South Salem 5.4 in 0715 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Armonk 5.0 in 0800 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Thornwood 5.0 in 0800 AM 12/27 Amateur Radio 1 E Scarsdale 4.5 in 0800 AM 12/27 Public 1 SSE Greenville 4.3 in 0800 AM 12/27 Public Mount Vernon 3.0 in 0800 AM 12/27 Amateur Radio 1 E Pelham Manor 2.8 in 0736 AM 12/27 Public

Your area missed out on the 4-8” that most of us got due to the H700-850 warm nose and fast flow pushing the dry slot in so quickly from the west.

The distribution of the snowfall this month between ISP, PHI, and BOS is not what we typically see when Islip has a snowy 10”+ December. This is the first time since 1988 that ISP has 10”+ in December and either Philly or Boston doesn’t have at least 10” also. It’s why we may not be able to use the snowy December winter analogs that followed the other 10” December years on the list. This is due to the 10” at ISP being the first December with two 5”+ clippers that had narrower areas with heavy snow than benchmark coastal snowstorms that also affected Philly or Boston in the other snowy Decembers at Islip. So it will be interesting to see how the rest of the winter plays out at all three locations. All 10”+ snowy Decembers at ISP and the Boston and Philly snowfall 2009…ISP…25.3”….BOS….15.2”….PHI….24.1” 2002…ISP….16.0”….BOS….11.1”……PHI….8.4” 2003…ISP….15.5”…..BOS….21.5”….PHI….6.0” 2010….ISP….14.9”…..BOS…..22.0”…PHI…12.7” 1995….ISP…..13.3”…..BOS…..12.6”….PHI….7.3” 2025….ISP…12.4”…..BOS…..2.3”……PHI….4.5” 1969….ISP….12.0”…..BOS……12.6”….PHI….7.5” 1975…..ISP….11.4”…..BOS…..19.3”……PHI….7.5” 1963…..ISP…..11.0”….BOS….17.7”…….PHI….8.0” 2000….ISP…..10.8”….BOS….4.5”….…PHI…..10.5” 2008….ISP…..10.4”….BOS….25.3”…..PHI…..0.4” 1988…..ISP…..10.4”….BOS….3.7”……PHI…..0.4” The way we got our snowfall this past December was different from the previous cold and snowy Decembers. This was our first December since at least 1950 with two 4-8” snowfall clippers. Past snowy Decembers into early January had big KU systems with widespread snows over 10”. The models backing off the coastal system which was forecast for next week is telling us that the Northern Stream is still dominant. We haven’t had a widespread 25”+ season from EWR-NYC-LGA-JFK-ISP in over 30 years without at least one KU NESIS Cat 1 event or higher. The other thing is that all our recent winters since 21-22 had most of the seasonal snowfall focused into just one winter month. This is why I am concerned that absent a revival of the BM coastal storm track before this winter is over, that December will be our snowiest winter month this year and most spots from EWR to ISP finish with another below average snowfall season. Since it was something like a 50 year+ event to get two 4-8” snowfall clippers in a two week period in December. That really productive clipper pattern for snow has shifted and we still haven’t seen evidence for a big KU pattern developing. Whatever happens, this was our best December in terms of cold and snow in a long time which we are all very grateful for.

This La Niña progression was much more amplified due to the record early stratospheric disruption in late November. The wildcard going forward is how much influence the stratosphere has on the rest of the La Niña progression. All we know for sure is that the stratospheric influence couldn’t shift the persistent Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So the rarity of the 500mb pattern with the fast Pacific flow actually worked in our favor for once in December with the record two 4-8” clippers. But now that the stratospheric influence is fading, we are back to the Northern stream interfering with snowier outcomes like we saw with earlier forecasts for this week.

That’s correct. But we have to look at how the models have been changing. The big error this coming week was the models were too strong with the -NAO and too weak with the Pacific Jet. We don’t have the strong -WPO and -NAO pattern anymore like we had back in December to hold the trough in the Northeast. So the extended EPS showing the fast Pacific flow with alternating ridges and troughs makes sense.

Looks like a very changeable pattern this month alternating between troughs and ridges in the East for the next few weeks. First week is starting out with a cold trough near our area.Then the ridge builds into the East this week for a thaw.This is followed again with a trough and colder around the 15th. Then another ridge and moderation as we approach the 20th.

The Great Lakes snowbelts were the big snowfall winner again in December relative to other areas like the West.

Light dusting here now with some large aggregates.

The way we got our snowfall this past December was different from the previous cold and snowy Decembers. This was our first December since at least 1950 with two 4-8” snowfall clippers. Past snowy Decembers into early January had big KU systems with widespread snows over 10”. The models backing off the coastal system which was forecast for next week is telling us that the Northern Stream is still dominant. We haven’t had a widespread 25”+ season from EWR-NYC-LGA-JFK-ISP in over 30 years without at least one KU NESIS Cat 1 event or higher. The other thing is that all our recent winters since 21-22 had most of the seasonal snowfall focused into just one winter month. This is why I am concerned that absent a revival of the BM coastal storm track before this winter is over, that December will be our snowiest winter month this year and most spots from EWR to ISP finish with another below average snowfall season. Since it was something like a 50 year+ event to get two 4-8” snowfall clippers in a two week period in December. That really productive clipper pattern for snow has shifted and we still haven’t seen evidence for a big KU pattern developing. Whatever happens, this was our best December in terms of cold and snow in a long time which we are all very grateful for.

It’s been the lack of big east coast storms causing the drier pattern. There is only so much precipitation we can get with such a dominant northern stream. Unfortunately, the models backed off the potential coastal storm track they were showing about a week ago. New run Old run