bluewave

The wetter climate leading to all these summer flash flood warmings has made it more challenging to sustain extended 90° day counts like in 1988 without clouds or rain interrupting. The most severe droughts in recent times have been focused out West. In the old days droughts were often from the Plains into the East. Plus stronger sea breezes due to summer circulation changes also interrupt the 90° day runs. But overall 90° day counts have been increasing just inland from the sea breeze fronts.

I think what you have been noticing is that the high temperatures during coolest summers each decade back to the 1940s are rising more rapidly than the warmest ones. Notice how we haven’t had any cooler summers after 2010 like we regularly got through 2009. Most of the record heat since 2010 during the summers has occurred in June and July. Maybe the late August into early September record heat of the 1940s into 1950s was a function of the late summer droughts from the Plains into the East.

While the minimum departures were a little warmer relative to the maxes, the average highs were still warmer than what is normal even using the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals period. I agree that it felt cooler relative to the heat that we had earlier in the summer. This has largely followed the 2020s summer pattern of major heat early on followed by heavy rains.

August was warmer than normal for most of the area using the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals.

Yeah, rapid warming of the SSTs near Japan as the main ridge axis migrated west from the July position north of Hawaii.

At least the start of September will show some similarity to 2023 and 2015. But the forecast is for a stronger Southeast ridge this time. Matches the summer theme of stronger mid-latitude 500 mb ridging than past developing super El Ninos.

The numbers show that we didn’t get the cooler developing super El Niño summer that was common in the past. We were significantly warmer than 2023. It was also warmer than 2015 which also didn’t have the extreme 100°+ heat that we had from May into mid-July. Most of the years you cited were the summers which followed the El Niño events and not before. The entire CONUS was too warm to allow a cooler summer here like 1972, 1982, and 1997.

This was the warmest developing super El Niño summer across the area. In the past these summers weren’t as warm like 2023. Several older ones were on the cooler side. Multiple locations in the top 10 for warmest summer through August 25th. Plus a number of stations got close to their all-time highs in early July which didn’t happen during any of the other developing super El Niño summers. Parts of NJ also reached 100° in May which set a new monthly maximum temperature in spots. Time Series Summary for NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE, NJ Warmest Summers through August 25th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-08-25 76.6 0 2 2024-08-25 76.1 0 3 2022-08-25 75.9 0 - 2005-08-25 75.9 0 4 2020-08-25 75.8 0 5 1999-08-25 75.6 0 6 2026-08-25 75.5 1 7 2016-08-25 75.3 0 8 2011-08-25 75.1 0 9 2021-08-25 75.0 0 10 2019-08-25 74.9 0 - 2012-08-25 74.9 0 - 2002-08-25 74.9 0 11 2025-08-25 74.8 0 - 2006-08-25 74.8 0 12 2008-08-25 74.5 1 13 2013-08-25 74.4 0 14 2018-08-25 74.3 0 15 2015-08-25 74.2 0 16 1988-08-25 74.1 0 17 1995-08-25 73.9 0 - 1994-08-25 73.9 0 18 1983-08-25 73.8 0 19 2017-08-25 73.6 0 - 1987-08-25 73.6 0 20 1973-08-25 73.5 0 21 1980-08-25 73.3 0 22 2023-08-25 73.2 0 - 1991-08-25 73.2 1 23 1981-08-25 73.0 0 - 1968-08-25 73.0 0 24 2003-08-25 72.9 0 - 1984-08-25 72.9 1 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Warmest Summers Through August 25th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-08-25 74.9 0 2 2010-08-25 74.8 0 3 2020-08-25 74.7 0 4 1999-08-25 74.6 0 5 2022-08-25 74.4 0 6 2024-08-25 74.3 0 7 2019-08-25 74.2 0 - 2016-08-25 74.2 0 8 2011-08-25 74.1 0 9 2026-08-25 73.6 0 10 2021-08-25 73.5 0 11 2013-08-25 73.4 0 - 2012-08-25 73.4 0 - 2005-08-25 73.4 0 12 2006-08-25 73.3 0 13 2018-08-25 73.2 0 - 2015-08-25 73.2 0 - 2008-08-25 73.2 0 - 1994-08-25 73.2 0 14 2002-08-25 73.1 0 - 1995-08-25 73.1 0 - 1991-08-25 73.1 0 - 1966-08-25 73.1 0 15 1980-08-25 72.9 0 16 1988-08-25 72.8 0 17 2023-08-25 72.6 0 - 1969-08-25 72.6 0 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 106.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 106.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 3 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 4 103.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 103.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 103.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 5 102.0 2025-07-30 through 2025-07-30 - 102.0 2022-07-25 through 2022-07-25 - 102.0 2013-07-19 through 2013-07-19 - 102.0 2005-08-13 through 2005-08-13 - 102.0 1999-07-18 through 1999-07-18 - 102.0 1999-07-06 through 1999-07-06 - 102.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 102.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 102.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 102.0 1963-07-01 through 1963-07-01 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of May Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026 100 0 2 2022 96 0 - 2016 96 0 - 2013 96 0 - 1996 96 4 6 2017 95 0 - 2010 95 2 - 2007 95 0 - 2001 95 0

Great graphic from the NWS showing how Bridgeport was significantly ahead of the other major sites for summer rainfall this year.

North Atlantic close to the all-time warmest set back in 2023.

Looks like the last week of August will feature near average temperatures.

Bridgeport, CT went from the driest summer on record last year to the wettest summer this year. Driest Summer Time Series Summary for Bridgeport Area, CT (ThreadEx) - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 3.24 0 2 1995 4.13 0 3 1966 4.21 0 4 1964 4.25 0 5 1993 4.58 0 6 1999 6.09 0 7 1957 6.16 0 8 1948 6.22 30 9 1974 6.69 0 10 1970 6.70 0 Wettest Summer Time Series Summary for Bridgeport Area, CT (ThreadEx) - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026 21.21 8 2 1972 20.23 0 3 1952 18.67 0 4 2006 18.52 0 5 1971 18.21 0 6 2011 18.11 0 7 1982 17.98 0 8 1992 17.27 0 9 2000 16.34 0 10 1989 15.61 0

This is the wettest month for NYC since August 2024. That was the last month before the dry pattern started in September 2024. So finally beginning to get a wetter pattern last few months. Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 2.70 2.60 3.60 2.48 3.05 3.39 4.89 7.08 M M M M 29.79 2025 0.61 2.60 5.52 3.25 6.58 2.46 4.03 2.21 2.76 4.08 2.09 3.38 39.57 2024 5.28 2.05 9.06 3.47 4.11 1.71 4.20 7.02 1.58 0.01 3.35 4.53 46.37