bluewave

Significantly warmer summer across the CONUS than 2023, 2015, and 1997.

Yeah, same for the two tornadoes yesterday on the South Shore that began as waterspouts. Once the ocean gets warm enough later in the season, the South Shore becomes the focus. Earlier in the season the severe storms and flooding tend to focus closer to the North Shore. Very impressive Atlantic SST rise providing the fuel once the pattern becomes favorable for storms. 445 NOUS41 KOKX 210130 PNSOKX Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 930 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...Waterspouts in southern Queens and southern Nassau County... The National Weather Service New York, NY office along with emergency management partners are reviewing damage, ground truth, and radar data from two waterspouts that may have impacted portions of the eastern Rockaways and Atlantic Beach in southern Queens and Nassau counties. Both of these waterspouts appear to have come ashore between 6:30 and 7:00 PM on August 20, 2026. Based on radar data and videos/photos received, so far, the first waterspout appears to have been short-lived, coming onshore in the eastern Rockaways. No damage reports have come in, as of yet. Based on radar and videos/photos received, so far, the second waterspout appears to have come onshore in Atlantic Beach. We have received preliminary reports of damage from this and radar evidence shows it may have survived for longer after coming onshore. We will continue to gather more information and investigate reports of damage in more detail. We will come out with an official statement on Friday, with more details.

Patchogue was the heaviest spot far on Long Island with 5.05 inches. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NY-SF-85 Station Name: Patchogue 0.9 SE Data Explorer Observation Date 8/21/2026 6:30 AM Submitted 8/21/2026 6:43 AM Gauge Catch 5.05 in. Notes --

Bridgeport, CT close to the wettest summer on record with 10 days to go after the driest summer on record last year. Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Jun through Aug Wettest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1972 20.23 0 2 2026 18.83 11 3 1952 18.67 0 4 2006 18.52 0 5 1971 18.21 0 6 2011 18.11 0 7 1982 17.98 0 8 1992 17.27 0 9 2000 16.34 0 10 1989 15.61 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Jun through Aug Driest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 3.24 0 2 1995 4.13 0 3 1966 4.21 0 4 1964 4.25 0 5 1993 4.58 0 6 1999 6.09 0 7 1957 6.16 0 8 1948 6.22 30 9 1974 6.69 0 10 1970 6.70 0

Looks like August is currently tracking near the higher end of the range close to the ECMWF SEAS5 forecast from the 1st. https://celsius.earth/predict Aug 2026 MEDIAN 1.50 90% RANGE 1.34-1.66 SEAS5 DIRECT 1.66

Maybe the Walker circulation is finally beginning to weaken. The strengthening in recent decades went against model forecasts. Probably due to an incomplete understanding of how it works. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105332 The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) weakens under global warming in climate change projections, supported by a global hydrological constraint. However, the PWC has strengthened over the past decades despite ongoing global warming, and the cause has been a puzzle. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50156-9 Our finding of a reversal in ENSO evolution from an initial increase to a subdued or collapsed amplitude toward 2300 highlights a strong nonlinear response of ENSO to persistent greenhouse warming. Under transient greenhouse warming, the fast warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, though initially contributing to an increase in ENSO variability, sows the seeds of a subsequent ENSO decrease by reducing the potential intensity and shrinking the climatological non-convective area of the equatorial Pacific. Establishing atmospheric convection in the reduced non-convective area induces small convective and wind anomalies that feed into the Bjerknes feedback. The associated curtailing effect eventually leads to the ENSO reduction. Although ENSO from a reduction to an eventual collapse is seen in some models, the likelihood in other models requires experiments integrated beyond the 23rd century, but such an evolution represents no good news, because it means that the oscillatory nature of ENSO impacts would be replaced by a quasi-permanent condition that is similar to an El Niño in many respects, therefore with a cumulative impact on affected regions.

This season is more conformation that the a long term regime shift occurred back in 2007. Thickness dramatically fell as the older sea ice melted. A June and July pattern like this season with deep low pressure north of Alaska before 2005-2007 would have resulted in a September minimum in the 6 to 8 million sq km range. But since the thickness was so low where the big Pacific side melt recently occurred, the area couldn’t hold the extent gains like it would have back in the colder climate era with thick multiyear ice more resistant to higher pressure and warmer recent conditions. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05686-x Regime shift in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness Manifestations of climate change are often shown as gradual changes in physical or biogeochemical properties1. Components of the climate system, however, can show stepwise shifts from one regime to another, as a nonlinear response of the system to a changing forcing2. Here we show that the Arctic sea ice regime shifted in 2007 from thicker and deformed to thinner and more uniform ice cover. Continuous sea ice monitoring in the Fram Strait over the last three decades revealed the shift. After the shift, the fraction of thick and deformed ice dropped by half and has not recovered to date. The timing of the shift was preceded by a two-step reduction in residence time of sea ice in the Arctic Basin, initiated first in 2005 and followed by 2007. We demonstrate that a simple model describing the stochastic process of dynamic sea ice thickening explains the observed ice thickness changes as a result of the reduced residence time. Our study highlights the long-lasting impact of climate change on the Arctic sea ice through reduced residence time and its connection to the coupled ocean–sea ice processes in the adjacent marginal seas and shelves of the Arctic Ocean The relationship between sea ice residence time in the Arctic Ocean and ice thickness distribution highlights the importance of coupled ocean–sea ice processes in the Alaskan and Siberian sectors of the Arctic (areas A and B in Fig. 3b). Several interrelated factors have become more prominent in the late twentieth century and have contributed to preconditioning the ocean–sea ice system before the stepwise changes in the ice formation areas: Arctic-wide rise of surface air temperature35, thinning of sea ice36, decrease of sea ice albedo37 concurrent with a reduction of multi-year sea ice38, increase of ocean heat flux through the Bering Strait39 and increase of the upper ocean heat content40. September sea ice concentration in the Siberian sector dropped below 40% in 2005 and the dramatic Arctic summer sea ice extent minimum occurred in 2007 (ref. 41). This series of events initiated intensive and widespread ice–albedo feedback in the Alaskan and Siberian sectors in the summer42,43, which resulted in a perennial increase of ocean heat content in areas of ice formation (Extended Data Fig. 1). After 2007, suppression of winter ice growth due to the accumulated ocean heat became conspicuous44 and the resultant thinner ice pack became more vulnerable to summer melt in the following year. Prolongation of the summer melt season promoted further ice–albedo feedback45 and has increased oceanic heat absorption in the summer7. Thus, summer ice extent and thickness in areas of ice formation has not recovered to the state before 2007 (Fig. 4c). In addition, continuing weakening of the cold halocline in the Siberian sector also influenced the upper ocean heat content46 and possibly slowed down ice growth offshore of the Laptev Sea in recent years17. Our analysis demonstrates the long-lasting impact of climate change on Arctic sea ice through reduced residence time, suggesting an irreversible response of Arctic sea ice thickness connected to an increase of ocean heat content in areas of ice formation. The large reduction of summer ice extent in the Alaskan and Siberian sectors in 2005 and 2007 triggered intensive ice–albedo feedback42,45 and initiated the perennial increase of ocean heat content in these areas44. This resulted in the stepwise reduction of residence time of sea ice in the Siberian sector of the Arctic, and hence a nonlinear response of the system. Before the shift, sea ice formed in and offshore of the Siberian shelves overwintered (spent about 15 months) in this area before entering the TPD (Extended Data Fig. 2), during which the ice thickened and increased its deformed fraction. After the shift, ice stayed in this area only about 6 months on average (Extended Data Fig. 2), resulting in recruitment of newly formed younger ice into the TPD and more sea ice formation during TPD transit to the Fram Strait26. The younger ice is thin, weakly linked and features ridges with more shallow keels; hence, it is more prone to wind forcing pushing the ice towards the Atlantic sector of the Arctic28,47. This process accelerated the TPD from 2007 onwards (Fig. 4d), while enhanced wind forcing after 2007 may also have contributed to the acceleration of the TPD (Extended Data Fig. 7). Because of the shorter residence time, the part of the ice that has thermodynamically grown is thinner17 (reduction of modal thickness in Fig. 1b) and the relative amount of the deformed fraction of ice has decreased (Figs. 1band 2). Impacts of this regime shift in Arctic sea ice on the pan-Arctic environment are extensive and require further investigation. Thinner and less deformed sea ice causes reduced momentum exchange between ice and ocean, contributing to reduced mixing in the upper ocean underneath areas that are fully covered with ice. This may affect entrainment of heat and nutrients from subsurface to surface ocean with a potential consequence on the biogeochemical cycles involving higher trophic levels. By contrast, however, sea ice retreat in marginal ice zones and continuing weakening of the cold halocline in the Atlantic sector allows for more turbulent mixing and winter convection in the upper ocean46. These counteracting effects can influence the regional contrasts of the ocean environment between fully ice-covered areas and marginal ice zones in the Arctic. In addition, habitat conditions of younger, level sea ice are different from those in older multi-year ice and might affect the sympagic (ice-associated) communities and their diversity48,49. Ridged sea ice supports higher biomass48 and represents safe havens for organisms to hide from predators50. The amount of ridges and deformed ice has also consequences for human activity. Thinner, more level ice is less challenging for ship navigation than in thicker, deformed ice and, along with less ice/shorter ice seasons in general, may allow for an increase in Arctic maritime traffic. Finally, interdisciplinary studies in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic and downstream of the Fram Strait outflow are needed to shed light on the consequences of the described sea ice regime shift and its impacts on physical and biogeochemical processes. Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 3d It's time! Join me in tracking this year's #Arctic sea ice minimum! A new record is unlikely again this year. Sea ice melt substantially slows every September as solar energy decreases and temperatures drop in the far north. Follow along with the data at zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i... ALT

HREF has a widespread 1.5 to 2.5 potential. Localized 3-5 possible where the best training sets up. So a continuation of the heaviest summer rains coming after we get the 100° heat early in the season. Like our local version of a monsoon pattern.

Starting to see +11 subsurface anomalies now.

Extent very close to last year at this time.

This was the first time that such a record WPAC warm pool was able to get pushed this far east.

Lake Harmony just got a snowfall observer starting with the 2020-2021 season. You guys do pretty well there. The elevation really helps out. Looks like 1995-1996 was just ahead of 1993-1994 for the top snowfall spot. But there wasn’t a Lake Harmony observer back then. Data for October 1, 2020 through April 30, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 77.4 Data for October 1, 2021 through April 30, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 41.0 Data for October 1, 2022 through April 30, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 48.5 Data for October 1, 2023 through April 30, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 48.7 Data for October 1, 2024 through April 30, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 48.2 Data for October 1, 2025 through April 30, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 60.4 Data for October 1, 1995 through April 30, 1996 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HOLLISTERVILLE COOP 135.4 PLEASANT MOUNT 1 W COOP 125.5 LONG POND POCONO LAKE COOP 117.8 PAUPACK 1 WSW COOP 117.1 HONESDALE 4 NW COOP 104.5 WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 98.3 Data for October 1, 1993 through April 30, 1994 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HOLLISTERVILLE COOP 132.1 LONG POND POCONO LAKE COOP 115.8 PLEASANT MOUNT 1 W COOP 106.3 SHICKSHINNY 3 N COOP 92.9 HONESDALE 4 NW COOP 92.5 WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 90.4

Really impressive how much stronger the record WWBs were in June and July 2026 than 1997.

Temperature pattern heading into late August looks close to average.

This event is really in a class all by itself. We are currently well ahead of our last east based super El Niño back in the summer of 1997. Large area of +10 subsurface now when only at +7 in 1997.