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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    Almost seems like an aspect of a more monsoonal type climate when the highest annual temperatures occur earlier before the heavier rains arrive.
  2. bluewave
    Our 100° days have been occurring earlier than in the past. Spots in NJ had their earliest 100° day back on May 19th-20th. No 100° days after August 10th during the 2020s. We haven’t had a 100° day after August 10th since 2005. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Earliest and Latest in Bold during the 2020s Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 106.0 2026-07-03 2 103.0 2026-07-04 - 103.0 2025-06-25 - 103.0 2025-06-24 3 102.0 2025-07-30 - 102.0 2022-07-25 4 101.0 2025-07-31 - 101.0 2024-07-17 - 101.0 2022-08-10 - 101.0 2022-07-24 - 101.0 2021-06-30 5 100.0 2026-07-02 - 100.0 2026-05-20 - 100.0 2025-07-26 - 100.0 2025-06-26 - 100.0 2024-08-02 - 100.0 2024-06-22 - 100.0 2022-07-23 - 100.0 2021-07-01 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ 100° days after August 10th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1953-09-30 5 0 2 1993-09-30 3 0 3 1948-09-30 2 0 - 1944-09-30 2 0 4 2005-09-30 1 0 - 2002-09-30 1 0 - 1973-09-30 1 0 - 1949-09-30 1 0 - 1881-09-30 1 0
  3. bluewave
    Near record AMO rise helping to boost the dew points.
  4. bluewave
    It just keeps climbing with the record breaking WWBs continuing.
  5. bluewave
    The main reason the pattern was more favorable in 1995-1996 was the much more extensive and longer duration cold into April. Plus the -NAO patterns were able to lock in during those days from the late fall into the spring. This time around we got the fastAO/ NAO reversal in March shutting off the snows. No doubt 2025-2026 was the very best winter of the 2020s. So it’s good to know that we at least were able to get a weaker reflection of that season. This was the first time that a weak La Niña with the 3 ridge pattern over the Bering, Baja, and Greenland occurred in 30 years. But the ridges were much stronger limiting the cold. It also took two seasons following that one for a super El Niño to develop. This time the super El Niño was instantaneous right after the winter.
  6. bluewave
    You have to realize that this forum goes well beyond IMBY type posts. In order to understand the local IMBY weather patterns, you have to see the bigger picture. One of the key reasons our area wasn’t able to experience a repeat of 1995-1996 this past winter was the overpowering nature of the ridges and warmth to our West. So the cold and upper trough wasn’t strong enough to reproduce the historic outcome of 1995-1996. That warmth came east in March preventing the heavy March and April 1996 snows from repeating. Our weather patterns have greatly shifted warmer since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. So the areas where the strongest 500mb ridges have set up produced these +10 extremes which weren’t forecast ahead of time. There has never been an 11 year period since 1895 with 17 months this extreme. You can find a scattering of isolated cases back over time. Plus we are doing it with the warmest 30 year climate normals in record making it even more impressive.
  7. bluewave
    The actual tornado was in Brooklyn. But since the rotation remained so strong on radar into SW Nassau, the NWS maintained the tornado warmings out of an abundance of caution. I was glad there was no tornado when it got to Long Beach. But it was really cool to see the swirl in the clouds directly overhead when the weakened supercell moved over my area. September 1998 was the strongest tornado near the South Shore in my time living there. The Labor Day Derecho caused the sky to go dark between 2-3 in the afternoon. Then I had my only .75 hail and severe gusts from a single storm on the South Shore. The actual tornado was in Lynbrook and the damage path was clearly visible near the neighborhood close to Sunrise Highway.
  8. bluewave
    It also goes beyond what phase the ENSO is in. But the warmest actual departure was +17.5 at FAR in the Feb 2024 super El Niño. This past winter was a weak La Niña with each month from December to March producing a +10 at some stations in the CONUS. No seasonal model forecast this. So we have a total of 17 months since the 2015-2016 super El Niño increased the baseline temperatures with +10 departures at some CONUS stations. None of the seasonal models forecast these either. Prior to 2015-2016 there were only a few +10 or greater months across the CONUS. These were March 2012 and January 2006. The list below includes the 17 months and the station close to warmest departures during each month. So there were numerous other stations over the+10 level during these months. DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3 MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3 DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1 JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2 FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3 MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5
  9. bluewave
    +10 months have been fairly common during super El Niño events since 1997-1998. Areas adjacent to the +10s also had very high temperature departures. Regions with the most overlapping high departures across multiple months finished the warmest for DJF. But since all seasonal models default to general climatology due to long range forecast uncertainty, none of the months were forecast ahead of time to my knowledge. The most common locations have been from the Upper Plains and Midwest across to the East. December 2015 was the most extreme for the aerial coverage and magnitude of the 10+ area. As early as November 22, 2015, the EPS weeklies were showing just moderately above average temperatures across the Northern Tier for December. So the long range models gave no indication of what occurred. +10 months since 1997-1998 Dec 1997 Upper Plains to Upper Midwest Jan 1998 Upper Plains to East Feb 1998 Upper Plains to East Dec 2015 Much of East Feb 2016 Upper Plains Mar 2016 Upper Midwest Dec 2023 Upper Midwest Feb 2024 Upper Midwest
  10. bluewave
    I remember that morning really well. It was one of the biggest weather events from 2006 to 2008. The only time a rotating wall cloud came right over my location in Long Beach. So NWS issued a tornado warning for my area due to how strong the rotation was on radar. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 650 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... EASTERN KINGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 715 AM EDT... * AT 644 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CANARSIE... OR ABOUT NEAR CROWN HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... JAMAICA BY 700 AM... KENNEDY AIRPORT BY 705 AM... CEDARHURST BY 710 AM... WOODMERE...VALLEY STREAM...LYNBROOK AND ATLANTIC BEACH BY 715 AM. WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
  11. bluewave
    Yeah, we got the record heat back in early July. This time it’s the high dew points making headlines. Straight from the tropics.
  12. bluewave
    Looks like the heat and humidity will begin to ease up next week.
  13. bluewave
    The list is different for each station due to local dew point variations. The record for Newark was set in 1995. While the JFK record was back in 2016.
  14. bluewave
    NYC just had their 2nd highest dew point of all-time at 79°. Probably some enhancement from being so close to the trees. As other stations weren’t quite as high.
  15. bluewave
    We appear to be early phases of El Niño intensification coinciding with passing the 400 ppm mark. But at least we don’t have the giant Pangea landmass configuration anymore. So while past warmer climates experienced stronger El Niños, this current configuration with the Pacific as it is today probably wouldn’t support something as extreme in the future. https://www.science.org/content/article/strong-el-niños-primed-earth-mass-extinction Geological evidence suggests that before the eruptions, atmospheric CO2 levels were likely about 400 parts per million (ppm), similar to the present day. As they began to tick up, the model showed profound El Niño events began to occur, says Alexander Farnsworth, a study co-author and paleoclimate modeler at the University of Bristol. Warm western waters at the equator spread east, preventing deep, cold waters from reaching the surface. Chaotic weather would have been unleashed worldwide, as happens during today’s El Niños. As CO2 levels rose to 800 ppm and beyond, the El Niños grew more fearsome than any in history, lasting up to 7 years. “You’re seeing this incredible heat buildup, which just persists,” Farnsworth says. https://eos.org/articles/mega-el-nino-may-have-led-to-major-mass-extinction-252-million-years-ago The good news is that the configuration of our continents means that even if the ENSO cycle changes wildly, we won’t experience conditions nearly as brutal as those at the end of the Permian. “The modern ocean is a much better buffer than before,” said Sun. “We have much more complex ecosystems.”
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