bluewave

Pretty wild ski conditions in Japan.

It’s only not relevant if you ignore the warming temperatures since then.

That’s due to the weather records not going back far enough in time on Long Island. Other spots like Newark with records back as far as the 1840s showed that something much closer to wall to wall cold and snow was the norm. The 30 year average seasonal snowfall at Newark was 43.7” with an average winter temperature of 30.4”.

We have had longer lasting December snowpack in the past with other 10”+ snowfall Decembers on Long Island without a big warm up and rain following the heavier snows. But these warm ups and rain following the heavier snows have become more common in December and the other winter months that we have had heavier snows. Unfortunately, Long Island weather records don’t go back as far as other spots across the region. But the snowfall this December isn’t that far from what used to be normal at spots with longer periods of record in the past colder climate era. Those colder era Decembers didn’t have the magnitudes of the warm ups with rain. So they had better snowfall retention for what fell relative to today.

50°+ warm ups with or without rain have become much more common prior to and following snow events here than they used to be.

I am comparing it to the old days when we would more extended snowcover with not so many warm ups with rain in between.

This has to be one of the most unusual December patterns that we have ever seen. The record low Arctic sea ice near the Kara and Barents seas has been linked to stratospheric warming events. 2025 marks one of the earliest SSWs on record. It’s also possible that this is our first December with two distinct 4-8” clipper snow events. Plus I am not even sure when the last time was that there were two 4-8” clipper events only two weeks apart during December to March. So I am not really sure yet what if anything this December will say about the rest of the winter. Since we have never had a December pattern like this before. Also note how each of the clipper events is being followed by a strong Great Lakes cutter with rain and a quick warm up.

This is probably one of the best hourly snowfall rates in CT last several years.

Really beautiful event here just east of the HVN ASOS. It came in as a very heavy wall of snow in the evening. We had 2” per hr rates for the first few hours. Then the rates decreased. Finished up here with a very respectable 5.5”.

This storm will be the test for whether they can finally discontinue the NAM. The NAM was the only model which could see the warm nose at 850 mb to 750 mb. None of the other models were very good at this. The NAM has sleet mixing in around EWR-NYC-LGA-JFK. But keeps it all snow from Suffolk NW back into SW CT and interior SE NY. So out of respect for the NAM, I will go 3-5” around EWR-NYC-LGA-JFK and 5-8” Northern Nassau to Suffolk.

Maybe the models easing up a bit on the TPV press early Jan from previous runs may allow the Southern Stream to come more into play with the +TNH and continuing -NAO.

Very impressive gradient in the Dakotas.

I think the last time Orange County had widespread 20”+ was back in December 2002. Monthly Data for December 2002 for Orange County, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. GARDNERVILLE COOP 20.1 PORT JERVIS COOP 34.0 WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 22.5 WEST POINT COOP 30.5

Models not quite as cold for the end of December and the start of January as prior runs with the core of the cold now forecast to stay to our north.