bluewave

One of reasons February 1983 had such a memorable snowstorm and 1998 didn’t was probably related to how east based 1998 was in February. 1982-1983 really didn’t become east based until after the winter was over. It was more full-basin in February compared to 1998.

Interesting timing of the release date on this new study since we could at least see our first monthly global temperatures near +2°C. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10237-9 nature articles article Article Open access Published: 25 March 2026 Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes Effectively communicating worst-case projections of global future climate—hereinafter referred to as worst-case climate outcomes—is essential for risk assessment and developing robust adaptation strategies to global warming1,2,3,4,5,6,7. Yet, current approaches for identifying spatially consistent climate outcomes are limited, with worst-case global climates typically communicated via the average of climate model projections at high global warming levels, such as 3 °C or 4 °C above the preindustrial era8,9. Here we show that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming for several sectors. For droughts in global key breadbasket regions, precipitation extremes over highly populated areas and fire weather extremes across forests, global climatic impact-drivers at 2 °C of global warming may turn out to be much more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming. We derive these results by identifying sector-specific, spatially consistent potential high- and low-impact global climate outcomes through spatially averaging projected sector-relevant climatic impact-drivers across key global regions. Our approach can easily be adapted to a wide range of sectors to support the improvement of sector-specific climate risk assessment and to inform climate policy. As global warming approaches 1.5 °C (ref. 10), these findings underscore the urgency of rapid mitigation to limit warming well below 2 °C, as even a 2 °C world may entail severe impacts.

It’s not so far-fetched when you consider a much weaker event in 1982-1983 lingered into June and July 1983.

It’s as if there was an underlying mechanism linking the 2023-2024 and 2026-2027 events together. Notice how Nino 1+2 never fully returned to La Niña following that event. Plus we got the Nino-like pattern in December 2025 with the small warming in Nino 1+2 and record +PNA for a December La Niña.

It would be interesting to know what the specific mechanism was that caused the WWBs to become stronger than 2023-2024 and even 1997-1998. While the CFS is outside its effective range by next June, it still has strong WWBs going. The CanSIPS indicates the same even though the SOI forecast relaxes. While it’s still too early in the game to know exactly what is happening, would be impressive if some type of bigger shift in the Pacific equatorial trade wind regime is occurring outside the usual ENSO dynamics. The WWBs north of the equator never fully relaxed in EPAC following the 2023-2024 El Niño event.

Nino 3 at +3.878 is currently showing the most anomalous warmth relative to all-time records for any time of year. The Euro and CFS both have the Nino 3 peak in December well above the previous 1997 and 1982 records. There is so much accumulated warmth on the long range CFS, that it’s showing El Niño conditions lingering into next June. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ 16SEP2026 25.3 4.6 28.6 3.8 29.6 3.0 29.6 1.0 26NOV1997 25.8 3.7 28.4 3.3 28.9 2.2 29.3 0.7 29DEC1982 26.1 2.7 28.5 3.2 29.1 2.6 28.8 0.4

This will be a good test of the new google deep mind AI model which is similar to the Euro and AIFS looping back west toward the coast.

BDR had the record rainfall and onshore flow and is a good distance from NYC. So nothing artificial there. NYC is the only urban station so cool. Notice how it compares to the closest sites.

With the warmest part of the month behind us, all stations are above normal for September so far. NJ and Eastern PA have been the warm spots this month. We can see the artificial cooling at NYC due to the trees too close to the sensor. September 1st-20th temperature departures MPO…..+2.7° PHL……+4.3° SMQ…..+2.3° NBW…..+3.5° EWR…..+2.2° NYC……+0.6° LGA…….+1.6° JFK…….+2.3° HPN……+1.6° BDR…..+0.5° ISP…….+1.5°

Still a long way out to know for sure. The 12Z GEM and UKMET are OTS. The GFS made a shift to the right from 6z. So we’ll have to see what the Euro and AIFS does today. These very strong blocking patterns are tricky for the models to handle. Since there is a fine line between capturing a system and suppressing it offshore.

Even if the PDO goes neutral during the winter, relatively speaking it would be much lower than the +1.70 peak in March 2016 and +1.47 in February 1998. The main difference would be the much warmer West Pacific from Japan to south of the Aleutians. My guess is that this would promote more ridging from east of Japan to perhaps north of Hawaii. Could weaken the Aleutian low and also the low which typically resides near the Southeast US. This could also potentially shift the STJ location. Plus we have seen weaker troughs in general over the last decade and stronger ridges. Very wide spread between the global SST forecast for the February and 1998. So the PDO values might not fully capture the SST difference. Also note how much warmer the Atlantic is forecast to be.

Yeah, near record 588 dm block north of the Great Lakes is very impressive for late September.

Especially if the surface low gets captured by the upper low and gets pulled in from the east by later in the week. Several models have been showing these cyclonic loop scenarios. Still early for details like that but the blocking to the north and closed low are very strong for this time of year. So there is at least some potential.

It got a mention in the recent CPC discussion. Like we have been discussing, could result in weaker low pressure centers with this El Niño. Would fit the recent pattern of overpowering ridges with smaller areas of low pressure. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html There are two factors that make the current situation unique. The first factor is the presence of a fairly strong, negatively phased Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), with the August PDO index value of -1.11 . The "Big Three" historical El Niño's since 1950 include the warm events of 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16, all of which occurred when the PDO phase was positive, leading to constructive interference. This time, however, the PDO phase is negative and may dampen the typical impacts of a strong El Niño in certain areas. The second factor involves the large region of warmer-than-normal SSTs that is typically present in the Gulf of Alaska during strong El Niños. The current situation shows a significant westward shift in these warmer SSTs, which may allow for slightly cooler water to influence portions of the U.S. West coast. In addition, even with the possibility of one or more cold air outbreaks across the northwestern quarter of the Lower 48 states, it is unlikely that this will have much of an impact on the average temperature for a 90-day season.

It’s part of the same pattern which produced the record 600 dm pattern this week. The strength of that ridge may be key to how much rain we actually get this week. Some of the stronger high pressure models like the OP Euro keep most of the rain offshore this week. Other models like the AIFS and CMC have more rain especially near the coast with weaker high pressure to the north. But like we saw with the blizzard in February, the AI and other models beat the Euro which was too suppressed with the coastal low. So this will be a good test of how the AI models handle warm season wavelengths with East Coast lows.