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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    The Euro is probably the warmest of the seasonal guidance. Remember that model was much too cool going into the 2023-2024 winter. This winter forecast is even warmer than that one was. So my guess is significantly warmer than the current Euro is showing.
  2. bluewave
    The entire CONUS should be warmer than all the guidance with the warmest anomalies along the Northern Tier states right to the East Coast.
  3. bluewave
    I think an even bigger story than the warmth this winter will be the shift to a much warmer base state from the late 2020s into the 2030s.
  4. bluewave
    My early winter guess is that the temperatures will be significantly warmer than any of the current seasonal models are forecasting. The temperatures for the first half of fall have been warmer than any other super El Niño year on record. Plus this is the strongest El Niño by a significant margin.
  5. bluewave
    Will be interesting to see if we can make it two consecutive years with elements of the winter pattern emerging in November.
  6. bluewave
    Some of the models clear NJ out enough this afternoon for another run at 80°. Would serve to enhance the instability ahead of the severe storm potential later today. Frost vs first freeze for Sunday morning at the usual cool spots will be contingent on whether the winds can go calm for radiational cooling under the big high.
  7. bluewave
    Yeah, starting to see the SW CONUS trough develop in response to the forcing extending into that area from the EPAC.
  8. bluewave
    Multi-year La Ninas prior to 2018-2019 didn’t produce persistent record ridging east of Japan leading to the record upper ocean heat through the 2020s. So are correct this pattern is not being caused by the canonical -PDO of the past which was defined more by cooler SSTs in the EPAC rather than historic warmth east of Japan. It’s a whole new type of pattern outside the typical PDO. This new type of mid-latitude ridging pattern was able to persist through the spring into the present. It’s described in the papers as Pan-Basin warming overshadowing the robust Pacific Decadal oscillation. So it’s the overlapping influence of this new pattern combined with the the super El Niño forcing leading to the ridges being much stronger further to the south than has been in the case during past developing super El Niño springs into the fall. Pan-basin warming now overshadows robust Pacific Decadal Oscillation https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02482-z Remarkable Changes in the Dominant Modes of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078
  9. bluewave
    I also agree with Snowman that the forcing could be stronger further east than the models are showing since this is such an extreme event.
  10. bluewave
    With the historic +30C warm pool pushed so far to the east, we are just going to have to wait and see what effects the western extent of the +30C warm pool are relative to the eastern side. Plus the pattern since May has been the seasonal models underestimating the southward extent of the ridging across the CONUS. So it’s possible the typical super El Niño ridge position south of Hudson Bay gets shifted further south than usual. The ridge wound up further south than the 2023-2024 seasonal winter forecasts and that was a much weaker event than this one. This stronger mid-latitude ridge has been leading to the persistent -PDO +AMO pattern during the 2020s.
  11. bluewave
    I don’t think we were discussing the same exact parameters. The Nino 3 Euro forecast is nearly identical to the JMA keeping the Nino 3 anomalies over +4 into late January or February. The Nino 1+2 forecasts for both the JMA and Euro are similar. The reason I posted the JMA is that the Euro doesn’t have an absolute forecast on their site only the anomalies. So we have to work out the Euro absolutes manually. So even if the actual Nino 1+2 absolutes top out at say 29.5 C, there will likely be +30C actual SSTs just to the north near Central America or even near southern Mexico. You can see the forcing bridge on the Euro developing linking Nino 3.4 all the way over to Central America. This is signaling how far east the +30C warm pool is going to be similar to the JMA and Euro absolutes.
  12. bluewave
    I have been taking about the importance of the +30 C warm pool for years now. Back over the summer we were discussing the potential of the +30 C warm pool off of Mexico linking up with the Nino +3 +30C warm pool. So not sure what resistance you are referring to.
  13. bluewave
    It’s great that the JMA has a chart showing the actual forecast SSTs. The current run now has the potential of the +30C warm pool getting pushed all the way east into Nino 1+2. Since Nino 1+2 reaches its annual peak from late winter into spring, at least one daily +4 in February would be possible since the average starts to climb above 26C. Nino 3 is similar to these values. So it’s a good bet the +30C warm pool will make it at least as far east as Nino 3. The 30C warm pool is usually the area where the tropical forcing tends to gravitate to. So while the ENSO anomalies will probably peak in December, the absolutes may not peak in the Nino 3 and 4 regions until February. So this first +30C warm pool getting so far east may produce a delayed El Niño peak forcing effect due to the historic buildup of record EPAC warmth. The JMA forecast charts show the actusl SSTs leveling off in December in Nino 3.4 and continuing to rise right into February in Nino 3 and 1+2. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/indices/3-mon/indices1/shisu_forecast.php
  14. bluewave
    At least another period of extended onshore flow with the big high to the north and developing low somewhere underneath.
  15. bluewave
    Right on cue the models are slowing the frontal passage for Friday into Saturday. This has been the theme all year from weekend winter snowstorms to thunderstorms and nor’easters into the fall. So it looks like we’ll have more measurable rain here early Saturday. Luckily not the all day washout that we just had this past Sunday. But just enough light morning showers keep the measurable weekend precipitation streak going before we clear out during the day Saturday. New run Old run
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