bluewave

Some extreme effects from this record developing El Nino showing up in South America.

2023-2024 wasn’t even close in your area or mine from the seasonal models. What difference does it matter if they are warm or too cold? An incorrect forecast is an incorrect forecast if you are interested in trying to figure out your sensible weather. I understand some posters like yourself enjoy posing forecasts that they would personally like to see. Nothing wrong with that. But wouldn’t you like to actually post a model run that has a chance of being correct rather than what you want it to show? I mostly post longer range ENSO plumes forecasts and general SST forecasts from the seasonal models where they can sometimes have more skill. If I post a temperature or 500 mb forecast, it’s mostly to see where the model might be or has made an error in the past. I also see several posters mention that they are only interested in their own backyard or local area. That’s OK also. But if you want to understand how to find the potential range of outcomes you need to have a broader understanding of how your area is related to the greater patterns in the region, continent, and planet. It just so happens that as the world warms, the weather records count is more heavily skewed toward warmth than cold. So the models just have more opportunities to be wrong about the magnitude of the warmth. And yes they do miss the cold from time to time also. But since cold is less frequent these days, the opportunities are less. In my region we have had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 and only one top 10 coldest. Many most of those top ten warmest months weren’t forecast by the longer range climate models. The one top 10 coldest month during February 2015 wasn’t forecast either. We posted many of the incorrect model forecasts at the time of how the long range weeklies missed the pattern change to colder in February. I remember there were literally dozens of posts about how the weeklies missed the record cold in February from the long range. I can guarantee you that I we had a climate getting colder rather than warmer, I would post maps of the models missing the cold long range. There would probably be some posters that would say why I am I so focused on the models missing the cold and I only am interested in the cold.

Yeah, the August average for the 2020s has been 10 days reaching 90°. We’ll have to see where the main ridge sets up and the what the wettest areas are. One of the warmest June 1st to July 16th periods along the East Coast. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 1 2 8 15 10 2 0 35 2026 2 4 8 6 M M M 20 2025 0 0 10 20 8 1 0 39 2024 0 1 11 14 7 0 0 33 2023 2 1 1 14 5 6 0 29 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31

That wasn’t a good forecast either for what verified. Still much too cool from upper Midwest into the Northeast. You seem to be taking my model criticism personally in some regard by the tone of your responses. It isn’t my intention to put you on the defensive in any way. It would be great if all the seasonal model forecasts were as good as the JMA for your best winter in 2013-2014. https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/data/news/tccnews34.pdf https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php

This will be a rare occasion that a dense smoke plume prevented 100°+ heat and higher departures.

94-95 was close to what the Euro seasonal was forecasting and not what verified. The closest actual 500 mb match was a much warmer nationally and less snowy version of 1995-1996 for DJF. Notice how the ridges overpowered the pattern compared to 1996. It was the first weak La Niña since then with a Bering Sea ridge, Baja SW U.S. ridge, and Greenland block. This has been a common theme regardless of ENSO in recent years. Ridges have been growing stronger and more expansive. The spring pattern quickly flipped to the standard 2020s pattern.

I am wondering if the reason that the standard 2020s summer -PDO/+AMO atmospheric state pattern has dominated the first half of summer rather than an El Niño type is due to the standing wave centered more in the Southern Hemisphere? El Niño has garnered a lot of attention, and this looks to be a large event for the reminder of the year. El Niño is related to cooler, wetter than normal summers in the US while La Niña warmer drier summers. I think the summer of 1988 cemented the impression that La Niñas support continental heat domes, heat and drought for the US. But looking at the temperature pattern across the US this summer so far it seems to be just the pattern that recent summers have settled in to regardless of the phase of ENSO. So far, in my opinion it is hard to observe the impact of El Niño on US weather just yet.

Who said anything about tropical convection? My reply was strictly in regard to how the forecast you posted compared to April 1998.

My statement was correct. The winter of 2025-2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the CONUS. While it’s difficult to find a perfect match, the forecasts were close to a 1994-1995 outcome which was the 12th warmest winter for the CONUS. So for the CONUS the seasonal forecasts were too cold due to the extreme nature of the warmth out West. I kept the scales in (C )for a direct comparison to the ECMWF forecast. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/3/2/1895-2026 https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/03/we-just-had-the-second-warmest-winter-in-u-s-history-despite-icy-blasts/ Rankings and departures out West were much higher than the East Verification in (C)

The one difference from that forecast SST chart is how much warmer all the ocean basins are forecast to be than April 1998.

It’s as if we are starting to see some of the higher end El Niños that weren’t forecast to repeat only a few years apart until later in this century. But the strength of the La Ninas hasn’t been really increasing. So this goes to show how much work we need to do on more accurate climate modeling. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-64619-0

Becoming more east based since June 15th with Nino 1+2 approaching +4 as these record WWBs keep coming.

First, none of the seasonal models have had much skill for any of the winters over the last decade in terms of temperatures or 500 mb patterns. We are talking about the strongest El Niño on record so broad ENSO correlations which include weak and moderate El Niños will be outside climo for such strong events This was the case with both the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 events when the seasonal models defaulted to correlations that were much too cold for what transpired. Both those winters verified significantly warmer than the seasonal forecasts. With La Ninas the seasonal models haven’t been any better. We had two of the weakest La Ninas events last few winters following a super El Niño. So the general La Niña correlations the models used as forecasts didn’t work out very well. The models were too cold with their 2025-2026 CONUS forecast since the magnitude of the Western warmth was significantly greater than the cold in the East. Just by looking at any of the seasonal models would not have given any indication of the 2nd warmest winter on record for the CONUS. But I was happy to be in my area which had the first cold and snowy winter since 2014-2015. 2024-2025 was such a weak La Niña that the Nino 1+2 warming in late November which triggered a more Nino-like December was the 2nd warmest across the CONUS. January 2025 was the coldest of 2020s so far in a sea of warm which the seasonal models didn’t forecast. The models also missed the deep trough in the West for 2022-2023 winter since they went with a general La Niña composite which was too cool for the very warm winter in the East. During the 2021 -2022 winter the models missed the record +13 December in DFW. They also missed the colder and snowier January pattern. Much of this has to do with the seasonal models inability for forecast the MJO which has been getting stuck in the warmer phases due to the expanding Indio-Pacific warm pool with enhanced MC forcing. 19-20 was a big miss of how strong the SPV became leading to another warmer winter. So it just may be that since record warmth is running so far ahead of any record cold, there are just more opportunities for the models underestimate the warmth and run too cold. Pointing out these obvious model errors is more a function of me trying to arrive at a better overall understanding of what to expect in our new climate. It’s in no way an endorsement of how rapidly our winters and other seasons have warmed. I grew up in the 1970s so I can remember what really cold winters were like. My preferences are for any pattern which produces great snowstorms. I don’t mind if they occur in a milder winter. Since I am more about snowstorm quality than how long it says on the ground following the storm. Just cold enough to snow with a benchmark KU storm track is all I need to have an enjoyable winter.

Yeah, the 100°+ heat has generally been occurring earlier in the summer since 2010 than in previous decades. Only 2 years since then recorded 100° heat between August 1st and 9th. No 100° heat from August 10th onward. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-09 (2011) 06-30 (2021) 0 Mean 07-01 07-21 19 Maximum 07-20 (2022) 08-09 (2022) 43 2025 06-23 (2025) 101 07-30 (2025) 100 36 2024 06-21 (2024) 100 08-01 (2024) 100 40 2023 - - - - - 2022 07-20 (2022) 100 08-09 (2022) 101 19 2021 06-29 (2021) 102 06-30 (2021) 103 0 2020 - - - - - 2019 - - - - - 2018 - - - - - 2017 - - - - - 2016 - - - - - 2015 - - - - - 2014 - - - - - 2013 07-18 (2013) 101 07-19 (2013) 100 0 2012 07-07 (2012) 102 07-18 (2012) 104 10 2011 06-09 (2011) 102 07-23 (2011) 102 43 2010 07-04 (2010) 101 07-07 (2010) 101 2 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-15 (1994) 06-19 (1994) 0 Mean 07-11 07-25 13 Maximum 08-07 (2001) 09-03 (1993) 75 2009 - - - - - 2008 - - - - - 2007 - - - - - 2006 08-01 (2006) 100 08-03 (2006) 101 1 2005 07-27 (2005) 101 08-13 (2005) 102 16 2004 - - - - - 2003 - - - - - 2002 07-04 (2002) 100 08-13 (2002) 100 39 2001 08-07 (2001) 100 08-09 (2001) 105 1 2000 - - - - - 1999 07-05 (1999) 103 07-19 (1999) 100 13 1998 - - - - - 1997 07-15 (1997) 101 07-17 (1997) 100 1 1996 - - - - - 1995 07-15 (1995) 104 07-15 (1995) 104 0 1994 06-15 (1994) 101 06-19 (1994) 102 3 1993 06-19 (1993) 102 09-03 (1993) 100 75 1992 - - - - - 1991 07-20 (1991) 100 07-21 (1991) 102 0 1990 - - - - - 1989 - - - - - 1988 06-22 (1988) 101 07-17 (1988) 100 24 1987 - - - - - 1986 07-07 (1986) 100 07-07 (1986) 100 0 1985 - - - - - 1984 - - - - - 1983 - - - - - 1982 07-18 (1982) 100 07-18 (1982) 100 0 1981 - - - - - First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-21 (1953) 06-26 (1943) 0 Mean 07-14 07-27 12 Maximum 08-28 (1973) 09-02 (1953) 72 1980 07-20 (1980) 101 07-21 (1980) 101 0 1979 - - - - - 1978 - - - - - 1977 07-19 (1977) 100 07-21 (1977) 102 1 1976 - - - - - 1975 - - - - - 1974 - - - - - 1973 08-28 (1973) 100 08-28 (1973) 100 0 1972 - - - - - 1971 - - - - - 1970 - - - - - 1969 - - - - - 1968 - - - - - 1967 - - - - - 1966 06-27 (1966) 101 07-13 (1966) 100 15 1965 - - - - - 1964 - - - - - 1963 07-01 (1963) 100 07-01 (1963) 100 0 1962 - - - - - 1961 - - - - - 1960 - - - - - 1959 06-29 (1959) 100 06-29 (1959) 100 0 1958 - - - - - 1957 07-22 (1957) 101 07-22 (1957) 101 0 1956 - - - - - 1955 07-05 (1955) 101 08-02 (1955) 100 27 1954 07-14 (1954) 102 07-31 (1954) 103 16 1953 06-21 (1953) 100 09-02 (1953) 105 72 1952 06-26 (1952) 102 06-26 (1952) 102 0 1951 - - - - - 1950 - - - - - 1949 07-03 (1949) 100 08-11 (1949) 102 38 1948 08-26 (1948) 103 08-28 (1948) 102 1 1947 - - - - - 1946 - - - - - 1945 - - - - - 1944 08-04 (1944) 100 08-13 (1944) 100 8 1943 06-25 (1943) 100 06-26 (1943) 102 0 1942 - - - - - 1941 - - - - - 1940 - - - - -

The CFS showed a similar forecast for the 23-24 super El Niño and we saw how that turned out. The model may just be defaulting to general El Niño correlations. So not sure if we can say it’s an actual forecast. Correlation Verification