bluewave

Yeah, that has been the seasonal PDO pattern during the 2020s. Steep summer decline followed by rebound back closer to neutral during the winter. Most summers the 500mb driving influence for the -PDO has been the ridge to the east of Japan. This July the ridge north of Hawaii had a much greater influence. More like what we saw during a more Niña-like July 2012. While the seasonal models have been missing this pattern since May, a rebound to a more +PNA and -EPO from August on is what they have been forecasting. So at least this element of the forecast may be in the early stages of developing. But we are still getting very strong ridge amplifications off the East Coast and in the Southwest in early August which appears to be the lingering La Niña -PDO 500 mb pattern influence. If even a small amount of-PDO influence at 500 mb continues into the winter, then it could mean a weaker or displaced Aleutian low complex relative to 1997-1998. The exact locations of the low pressure would help determine where the Nino ridge axis focuses over North America. Any -PDO 500 mb influence could result in higher heights located south or potentially east of 1998 which when the main 500 mb ridge was centered south of Hudson Bay.

At least the PNA is trying to match the usual August El Niño expectations. But the other areas still have the lingering -PDO or La Niña influence. So maybe this is the start of the El Niño having of more 500 mb influence on our pattern.

That’s why this forum is such a great resource. It allows people from all over to share ideas. Having all this information in one central location is very convenient.

Yeah, my area along the CT Shoreline is showing marked improvement compared to how dry last summer was. Much greener now at the open spaces around Tweed airport. It was completely brown last summer. The water levels at my local reservoir are much higher this summer. Very impressive high dew point surge starting tomorrow and perhaps lasting till next Tuesday. Another near record ridge amplification. So continuing opportunities for convection.

The expansion of the boreal forests into the tundra raises another set of issues. https://www.technologynetworks.com/applied-sciences/news/boreal-trees-are-spreading-into-the-arctic-tundra-405025 In an increasingly warmer world, the Arctic tundra is becoming more forestlike. This process, known as borealization, is particularly widespread in Eurasia and in Arctic mountain regions, where the distance to the boreal (northern) forest is shorter. Many species of grasses and shrubs that can live in both the tundra and the forest are gaining ground in the tundra. This is shown by a new large-scale study of 1,100 sampling sites across the entire Arctic biome. Consequences “If this trend continues, it could have a number of consequences. For example, it could accelerate the melting of the permafrost or change the seasonal migration of reindeer. It could also affect the traditional livelihoods of the indigenous peoples of the Arctic, who rely on hunting, reindeer herding, and gathering plants as a part of their subsistence and cultural practice,” says Robert Björk, a researcher on Arctic ecosystems at the University of Gothenburg. When shrubs and other tree-like species expand, they trap more snow in winter and cover the ground in summer. This changes the ground temperature and can accelerate the thawing of the permafrost. As a result, large amounts of carbon that have been frozen for thousands of years could be released, contributing to global warming.

Yeah, that is what I noticed especially reading the all-time record high pressure in Australia with the -SOI and extreme conditions in South America. Perhaps it’s related in some way to the record early stratospheric disruption last November. Following the strong blocking last winter, record low pressure developed north of Alaska during the spring and has continued into the summer. This has been associated with the record ridging and heat across the mid-latitudes. It would be a nice topic for a research paper.

The issue at hand is the expansion of wildfires in the boreal and other forests. Places like Canada have seen both national and regional record fire activity increase due to the warmer and drier conditions. The recent record fire in Ontario produced the record smoke from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. I don’t count that as a positive.

Northern Hemisphere pattern going into August still out of sync with the record breaking El Niño.

While the drought monitor will show improvement when it updates across the area in a few days, there will still be drought especially in the areas which have been the driest during recent years like in NJ. The northern areas like around Bridgeport didn’t have as much of deficit as parts of NJ. So this multiyear drought has always been the strongest in parts of NJ.

If you read my post more clearly that is what I said. Bridgeport is the only major site with such a heavy rainfall departure since June 1st. So for the heaviest totals to be more spread out more sites would need to be like Bridgeport. The other major sites are similar in that they missed the heaviest totals.

https://thetradeoff.substack.com/p/the-wildfire-climate-change-burn?r=1q3cpv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true The Wildfire-Climate Change Burn Area Paradox Climate Change is making wildfires worse, but global wildfire burn area is declining RYAN KATZ-ROSENE AUG 03, 2026 Consider the following two statements about global wildfires from two high-level scientific reviews on the matter: AND What?! Are wildfires getting worse, or is the situation getting better? What can we expect going forward - more burn area globally as a result of a warming planet, or lessin concert with the present trend? This post wades into this apparent paradox and reasserts the idea that both the present and the future of wildfire burn area is highly linked to anthropogenic climate change. Yes, global burn area is declining, but it’s uneven regionally Globally, burn area from fires is indeed showing a robust declining trend over the last two decades. Some regions, however, have seen a pronounced increase over this period (especially boreal forest ecosystems). The longer term trends, as shown in the figure below, vary substantially from one model and dataset to the next, but generally speaking the story is that northern remote areas (especially boreal forest ecosystems and northern peatlands) are seeing an increase in recent decades, and tropical areas - especially in Africa’s savannah areas - have seen a decrease. Why is this happening? The specifics are complex, but the general explanation can be found in major expansions in agricultural development in Africa, which have helped drive “significant declines [in burn area] in African savannahs… despite significant increases in fire weather, and especially extreme fire weather, in the region.” This is, after all, savannah-grasslands account for more than half of global burn area, and so a significant reduction in that biome has a pronounced effect on the global totals.

Most major sites are just a little above average since June 1st. Bridgeport is the only major station with an uneven big departure. So for the heavy rain to be more even most sites would need to be like Bridgeport.

Typical uneven nature of rainfall from convection. We would probably need a tropical system to have the heaviest totals spread out more evenly. Bridgeport currently has the heaviest totals since June 1st of the major reporting stations. June 1st through August 3rd rainfall NYC….10.28….+0.67 LGA…..9.61……+0.83 EWR….9.74…..+0.27 JFK…..9.31……+1.19 ISP…..10.33……+2.66 BDR….15.84…..+8.36

It sounds like you would enjoy the climate out West which averages under 25” a year of precipitation. Just had some friends get back from San Diego and they really loved it out there. We got close to that here back in the 1960s for a time.

Yeah, they snuck one in during 2004. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Lowest Number 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1889 5 0 2 1920 6 0 - 1907 6 0 - 1904 6 0 - 1902 6 0 3 1996 7 0 - 1984 7 0 - 1960 7 0 - 1906 7 0 4 1927 8 0 - 1917 8 0 - 1875 8 0 5 2004 9 0 - 1969 9 0 - 1905 9 0 - 1877 9 0