bluewave

SMQ approached their all-time highest September dewpoint yesterday at 77°. CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Newark/Liberty TSTM 77 72 84 E5 29.93R Teterboro TSTM 76 73 91 E7 29.94R Caldwell TSTM 76 75 97 NW9 29.96R FOG Somerville LGT RAIN 79 77 94 N3 29.91R FOG Linden CLOUDY 78 72 80 SE8 29.94R Perth Amboy N/A 75 N/A N/A E6G13 N/A Sussex NOT AVBL Andover N/A 79 73 82 E3 29.96R Trenton MOCLDY 84 75 74 CALM 29.92S HX 92 Millville N/A 84 76 76 CALM 29.93F HX 93 Atlantic City PTCLDY 88 75 65 SW9 29.94S HX 97 Wrightstown MOCLDY 84 75 74 S3 29.92R THUNDER HX 92 Toms River PTCLDY 81 75 82 S3 29.94S

The record finished very close to the ECMWF SEAS5 forecast at the top of the range near +1.64°.

The Franklin Institute in Philly is the 90° day leader across the region this year. Data for January 1, 2026 through September 1, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 43 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 41 DE DOVER COOP 41 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 40 Data for January 1, 2026 through September 1, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 35 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 29 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 28 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 26

The summer 500 mb pattern was as opposite as you can get from a developing super El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere. The 500mb ridges dominated where the troughs were supposed to be. But the Southern Hemisphere response during their winter may give us some clues what to expect here. Notice how the 500mb ridges were stronger than the expected troughs. It was obvious near New Zealand and South America. This would translate into a weaker Aleutian Low and weaker low pressure near the Southeast U.S and or Western Atlantic than is usual for such a strong El Niño. Could mean a warmer more dominant ridge pattern over North America than is typically the case for a super El Niño event. Should this occur during our winter, then it would follow the general pattern regardless of ENSO of the 500mb ridges being more impressive than the troughs since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. https://www.pyreweather.org/map/?variable=height&level=500&region=World&mode=anomaly&months=202606%2C202607%2C202608&fill_mode=shaded&climo_source=r2-monthly

The east based nature went hand in hand with the overpowering STJ flooding North America with mild Pacific air. So even storms tracking south of the I-95 corridor were all rain near the coast. It was one of the rare cases of the STJ pumping the Eastern ridge in January causing it to link up with the Greenland block. Our recent link ups were mostly Northern Stream driven.

Now what does this have to do with the failure and landslide? We don't yet know whether the ice failed first and brought rock down with it, or if the rock failed first and brought down the glacier. But the glacier had likely been changing in response to a warming climate. 8/ Dr. Robert Rohde @RARohde · 28m Melting glaciers on a steep slope will thin and weaken, and become more prone to fracture and collapse. They also produce water that can seep into cracks in the ground and lubricate the ice-rock interface. 9/ Meltwater and higher temperatures can also cause permafrost to thaw. At elevations like this, where annual average temperatures are well below freezing, permafrost often plays a role in sealing cracks and reinforcing the underlying rock. Thus thawing can weaken the rock. 10/ Post-event photos suggest that the ice (and possibly rock) failed close to the top of the existing slope. If much of the rock and ice remained solid until the point of failure, then the top of the slope would likely have the greatest stresses. https://x.com/theiaincameron/status/2093619041105539386 11/ Was the tragedy in Nepal and Tibet due, in part, to climate change? My view is probably yes. The connection remains circumstantial and lacks a smoking gun, but the circumstances certainly make it seem likely. 15/ 10:42 AM · Sep 1, 2026 · All landslides involve an interplay of complex factors Glaciologists and geologists will work to pin down the details, but melting is known to make events like this more likely, and given the circumstances it would be surprising if global warming wasn't a factor here.

I think part of what saved February in 1983 was Nino 1+2 didn’t peak until the summer and wasn’t as extreme as 1997-1998 was during the winter.

The CanSIPS completely missed how east based this event has become and is just repeating the same error in its current forecast. Most other models also showed this but not to the same degree. It also underestimated the record warm pool east of Japan so I would take forecasts in that area with a pinch of salt also.

September getting off to a high dewpoint start.

If we correct for the trees close to the NYC ASOS artificially cooling the highs, then NYC finished August warmer than average like the other stations. August maximum temperature departures NYC….-0.7 EWR….+0.9 LGA….+0.2 JFK…..+1.2 HPN…..+0.9 BDR….+0.4 ISP……+0.8 NBW….+1.5 PHL…..+1.5 MPO….+0.6 SMQ…..0.0 FWN….+1.5

Yeah, the increasing summer heatwaves across Europe and other parts of the Northern Hemisphere are being driven more by the CGT pattern. This pattern is operating independently of ENSO. So this is how we got such a contradictory pattern in Europe and other areas compared to past developing super El Niños. Building on this, we propose that the circumglobal wave (CGW) pattern, also known as the circumglobal teleconnection pattern (35, 36), drives the extended duration of NWP MHWs. This prominent summer circulation feature spans the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude band (36). While prior studies have linked the CGW to terrestrial extreme weather—such as heatwaves in Europe, Asia, and North America (37–41)—its role in NWP MHW dynamics remains underexplored. Given that CGW activity peaks during boreal summer, aligning with the documented maximum in NWP MHW intensity and frequency (25, 42–46), it provides a compelling mechanism for initiating and sustaining these events beyond local forcing alone. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz4647 Marine heatwaves in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) have become increasingly frequent and persistent, yet the mechanisms enabling their multiseasonal duration remain poorly understood. Through observational analyses and climate model experiments, we demonstrate that NWP marine heatwaves are primarily driven by a quasistationary wavenumber 5 circumglobal wave (CGW) pattern that operates independently of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The CGW modulates surface heat fluxes during summer, triggering a self-reinforcing feedback loop where NWP warming intensifies the CGW pattern, amplifying and prolonging heatwaves across extended warm seasons. Additionally, CGW-driven summer warming in the northern North Atlantic persists into winter through oceanic thermal inertia, exciting a great-circle wave pattern that propagates back to the NWP, sustaining heatwaves through cold seasons. This interplay between atmospheric waves and trans-basin interactions enables multiyear marine heatwave events. Analysis of observational data and climate model simulations reveals a strengthening CGW influence in recent decades, indicating more frequent and prolonged NWP marine heatwaves under ongoing global warming.

You have to remember that the summer of 1984 had warmer departures in the Northeast than Philly had. So that’s why JFK had a higher ranking relative to Philly. This was the 3rd warmest summer for Philly and 4th warmest in ACY. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Warmest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 79.6 0 2 2022 79.3 0 3 2026 78.8 1 - 2016 78.8 0 4 2024 78.5 0 - 1995 78.5 0 5 2020 78.3 0 - 1994 78.3 0 6 1993 78.2 0 7 2012 78.0 0 - 2011 78.0 0 8 1991 77.9 0 9 2005 77.8 0 Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Warmest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 77.5 0 2 2020 76.9 0 - 2011 76.9 0 3 2018 76.5 0 4 2026 76.3 1 - 2019 76.3 0 5 2024 76.1 0 6 2022 75.8 0 - 2016 75.8 0 - 2005 75.8 0 7 2021 75.6 0 8 2008 75.5 0 9 1984 75.3 0 10 2006 75.2 0 11 1983 75.1 0

More evidence that the ridge is operating independently of ENSO as we have seen this summer regardless of ONI, RONI, MEI, and SOI. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz4647 Marine heatwaves in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) have become increasingly frequent and persistent, yet the mechanisms enabling their multiseasonal duration remain poorly understood. Through observational analyses and climate model experiments, we demonstrate that NWP marine heatwaves are primarily driven by a quasistationary wavenumber 5 circumglobal wave (CGW) pattern that operates independently of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The CGW modulates surface heat fluxes during summer, triggering a self-reinforcing feedback loop where NWP warming intensifies the CGW pattern, amplifying and prolonging heatwaves across extended warm seasons. Additionally, CGW-driven summer warming in the northern North Atlantic persists into winter through oceanic thermal inertia, exciting a great-circle wave pattern that propagates back to the NWP, sustaining heatwaves through cold seasons. This interplay between atmospheric waves and trans-basin interactions enables multiyear marine heatwave events. Analysis of observational data and climate model simulations reveals a strengthening CGW influence in recent decades, indicating more frequent and prolonged NWP marine heatwaves under ongoing global warming.

Occurring during such a strong developing El Niño made this even more extreme relative to what has occurred in the past.

JFK was able to finish this summer with the 4th highest number of 95°+days similar to some of the big 90° summers you mentioned. But stronger sea breezes overall lead to a lower total of 90°+ days than those years. So the higher end heat early on boosted JFK into the top 10 of warmest summers. While the developing super El Nino summer of 2015 was also warm for average temperatures at JFK, it didn’t have the major 95°+ and 100°+ heat this summer had. So the magnitude of the heat this summer was a first for such a high end El Niño event. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug 95°+ days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 10 0 2 1963 8 0 3 2002 7 0 - 1999 7 0 4 2026 6 2 - 2013 6 0 - 1949 6 0 5 2012 5 0 - 1983 5 0 - 1966 5 0 - 1955 5 0 6 2025 4 0 - 2022 4 0 - 2006 4 0 - 1993 4 0 - 1991 4 0 - 1974 4 0 - 1968 4 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Warmest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2022 76.1 0 4 2015 76.0 0 5 2024 75.8 0 - 2011 75.8 0 6 2020 75.7 0 7 1983 75.6 0 8 2026 75.4 2 - 1984 75.4 0 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1991 75.3 0 10 2025 75.2 0 - 1971 75.2 0 - 1949 75.2 0 All-time Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 102.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 102.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 102.0 1963-07-01 through 1963-07-01 4 101.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 101.0 2010-07-04 through 2010-07-04 - 101.0 1993-07-09 through 1993-07-09 - 101.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 101.0 1966-07-02 through 1966-07-02 - 101.0 1957-07-22 through 1957-07-22 - 101.0 1948-08-27 through 1948-08-27 5 100.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 100.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 100.0 2013-07-18 through 2013-07-18 - 100.0 2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07 - 100.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 - 100.0 1983-08-20 through 1983-08-20 - 100.0 1983-07-16 through 1983-07-16 - 100.0 1972-07-23 through 1972-07-23 - 100.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26