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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    2020 was a really wild swing for the Arctic. We had the very strong polar vortex during the winter and a late season snow in early May. Then the warmest Arctic summer since 2012 with the Arctic sea ice almost as low. December had a 40” snowstorm in BGM followed by a record rainstorm and warm up on Christmas.
  2. bluewave
    The pressures in general across the Arctic have been lower during the summers since 2013 with more ridging in the midlatitudes. There has been quite a bit of volatility in regard to the winter higher latitude blocking since the 13-14 winter. It’s been tough to hold a similar winter pattern across the Arctic for more than two winters in a row since 09-10. We actually have had the greatest degree of volatility from month to month and year to year since then.
  3. bluewave
    2024 and 2025 didn’t have the deep trough north of Alaska like this June and July. It was displaced closer to Greenland and not as strong. Could be a result of the rebound following the stratospheric warming event last November.
  4. bluewave
    That post was about the 1997-1998 winter which followed 1961-1990 climatology. This winter will be using 1991-2020 normals. Rankings will be based on the 1895 to 2027 full period of record.
  5. bluewave
    I am not that surprised since these seasonal forecast models can’t do much better than general climatology or correlations. Never saw a seasonal model forecast an extreme pattern before it actually happened except for 2013-2014. So I don’t expect the actual details to begin to emerge much before the model runs near the beginning of December. All we know for sure at this point is that this will be the strongest El Niño on record. All previous super events shared the one common aspect of warm winters. But there is always room for variability with each new event in some regard to past ones such as ridge and trough locations.
  6. bluewave
    The variability could also be filtered through the tendency for stronger subtropical to mid-latitude ridging and weaker troughs than we had in 1997-1998.
  7. bluewave
    Unfortunately, the dew points have been going up over the years here. Much more like what the Delmarva used to get 20-30 years ago and earlier. I was mostly commenting on the better rainfall this summer up here. Last summer was the 5th driest on record in my new area. So everything was brown. Much greener looking this summer. Are you still near the Poconos? Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jun through Aug Top 10 Driest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2000 3.02 65 2 1966 4.15 0 3 2022 4.29 0 4 2017 4.76 3 5 2025 4.99 5 6 1957 5.26 0 7 2016 5.28 0 8 1949 5.83 0 9 1965 5.93 0 10 2014 6.23 2
  8. bluewave
    I see what you are saying since this a much stronger more east based event than 2023-2024. So if any event can have Nino dominant forcing, then this one would be it. But we could avoid the IO and MC forcing we had in 2023-2024 and still reach a very warm outcome. 1997-1998 had a much deeper trough in the Southeast than 2023-2024 with more typical Nino dominant forcing. But the portions of the Southeast were warmer in 1997-1998 than in 2023-2024.
  9. bluewave
    A stronger east based event. Not necessarily the exact anomaly distribution. What do you mean by trending colder since we are just starting to get into the winter range now from earlier forecasts?
  10. bluewave
    This is an even stronger east based event than 1997-1998 was. The charts below are for what actually verified in C and F departures for that era. It was more extreme than general El Niño correlations.
  11. bluewave
    Super El Niños are significantly warmer than canonical El Niño patterns. None of the seasonal models were warm enough for either 2023-2024 or 2015-2016. This was probably the case also with whatever guidance they were using for the 1997-1998 winter forecast also. Correlations can give general ideas of which areas will be typically warmer or relatively cooler, but are not designed to handle extreme events like this one and the magnitudes of both 500 mb ridging and warmth.
  12. bluewave
    Looks to be defaulting to general El Nino correlations rather than an actual forecast for such an extreme event. We saw a similar forecast back in August 2024. The area to the north is warmer and Southeast cooler. Verification in °C
  13. bluewave
    The global pattern since the spring 2023 hasn’t been following any of our past analogs that we look at. The record breaking east based nature of the WWB going into the spring of 2023 was a first. Then the rapid global temperature jump by September 2023 without the traditional lag was new. Nino 1+2 warming in November 2024 followed by the impressive December +PNA didn’t match past La Ninas following such strong El Niños. Plus Nino 1+2 not fully returning to La Niña like it had in the past.
  14. bluewave
    The overall SST pattern and forecast SST pattern looks different from 1997-1998. That event had a much stronger cold pool in the WPAC into Nino 4 and 3.4 regions during the same time in 1998 than the current forecasts for early into mid 2027. Plus the La Ninas following 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 weren’t particularly strong. But we’ll see how things go since it’s still early in the process.
  15. bluewave
    Getting a lower end super El Niño and an all-time record breaker only three years apart is a first for our modern climate era.
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