bluewave

Yeah, we have only really had 6 years reaching 103°+ by July 4th. So the sample size is pretty small. But at least none of the previous years made it above 102° the rest of the summer. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Highest Temperatures June 1st through July 4th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1966-07-04 105 0 - 1949-07-04 105 0 2025-07-04 103 0 - 2021-07-04 103 0 - 1911-07-04 103 0 - 1901-07-04 103 0 Maximum temperature after July 4th 1966….100° 1949….102° 2025…101° 2021….99° 1911…..102° 1901…..95°

One of the few times that a forecast for stalled out backdoor cold front with a wave of low pressure by next Monday is a welcome sight.

I was walking along the shore one day back in Long Beach and one of them flew very low right over the beach at Pacific BLVD. They come up on your position silently and you only hear the engine roar once they are past. It was a pretty wild experience even compared to all the beach parties back in those days.

Busy day at the shore with the lifeguards having to temporarily close the ocean to swimming where the sharks are making appearances.

105° now at Corona still north of the seabreeze.

The South Shore beaches in the upper 70s are the place to be on days like these. FW3143 West Gilgo Observation Time: 07/02/26 @ 14:05 EDT 18:05 UTC Elevation: 6 ft OK Weather Conditions Temperature: 78 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 80 % Wind: SE at 10 MPH Peak Gust: 15 MPH 24 Hour Max/Min Events Max Temperature: 78 °F Min Temperature: 69 °F Max RH: 91 % Min RH: 80 % Max Dew Point: 72 °F Min Dew Point: 66 °F Max Gust: 29 MPH

The CONUS finally surpassed March 2012 in 2026. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/1/3/1895-2026

New Brunswick 103°. ▼ New Brunswick NJ 2026-07-02 13:50 Mesonet 103 70

Corona at 104° and Glendale/Maspeth 103°.

It does happen occasionally and probably will again one of these years. But it’s a very low probability of success forecast any given year since 1993-1994. Only 4 seasons fell in this range from 1993-1994 to 2025-2026 vs 18 seasons from 1960-1961 to 1992-1993. NYC used to be clustered much closer to the middle 19-30 range in the previous 33 year period. So it was a good bet that you would be correct more often than in recent years calling for seasonal snowfall closer to the mid range or average of the distribution. These days most years are skewed toward the extreme ends of well above or well below average snowfall. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY 19-30”seasons bolded Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-2026 0.0 T 7.2 13.9 22.3 T 0.0 43.4 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 12.9 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1994-1995 0.0 T T 0.2 11.6 T T 11.8 1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5 1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9 1989-1990 0.0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 13.4 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1 1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1 1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0 1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.9 21.5 T 0.8 27.2 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.8 0.4 0.7 9.6 24.6 1980-1981 0.0 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 0.0 19.4 1979-1980 T 0.0 3.5 2.0 2.7 4.6 T 12.8 1978-1979 0.0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 29.4 1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7 1976-1977 0.0 T 5.1 13.0 5.8 0.6 T 24.5 1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3 1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5 1972-1973 T T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5 1969-1970 0.0 T 6.8 8.4 6.4 4.0 T 25.6 1968-1969 0.0 T 7.0 1.0 16.6 5.6 0.0 30.2 1967-1968 0.0 3.2 5.5 3.6 1.1 6.1 0.0 19.5 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 9.1 1.4 23.6 17.4 T 51.5 1965-1966 T 0.0 T 11.6 9.8 T 0.0 21.4 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 3.1 14.8 2.5 2.8 1.2 24.4 1963-1964 0.0 T 11.3 13.3 14.1 6.0 T 44.7 1962-1963 T T 4.5 5.3 3.7 2.8 T 16.3 1961-1962 0.0 T 7.7 0.6 9.6 0.2 T 18.1 1960-1961 T 0.0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 54.7

As long as you don’t forecast an average snowfall season around NYC Metro you should do OK.

Our seasonal snowfall since 1993-1994 around NYC Metro has shifted to all or nothing. Meaning nearly all the seasons have been well above or well below average. Very few fall in the middle anymore like they used to prior to the last 30 years. So our decadal average snowfall has been determined which category in the all or nothing game wins out. Long term since the 1800s snowfall has been declining as winters and springs get warmer.

Lefferts/South Ozone Park now at 100.

December 2000 was cold and snowy in NYC. The real outlier years for lack of snow and warmth were 2001 and 2006. The December 11 year snowfall average from 2000-2010 was 8.9” in NYC which was the best since the 1940s. December 1989 was a whole different story for extreme cold. It was more like a typical LIA winter than anything we have ever seen in modern times. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Coldest Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1917 25.0 0 - 1876 25.0 0 2 1989 25.9 0 3 1880 26.4 0 4 1872 26.7 0 5 1926 28.9 0 6 1871 29.0 0 7 1958 29.3 0 8 1955 29.7 0 - 1910 29.7 0 - 1886 29.7 0 9 1976 29.9 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Coldest Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1989 7.5 0 2 1917 12.2 0 3 1963 12.9 0 4 1958 13.0 0 5 1970 14.3 0 6 1980 15.0 0 7 1910 15.9 0 8 1904 16.0 0 9 1933 16.2 0 10 1976 16.3 0

They just set the new all-time warmest 10am temperature at the station before the sea breeze arrives. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&month=all&sday=0702&eday=1231&var=max_tmpf&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png