bluewave

Great job. For some reason, this type of pattern has preceded or accompanied El Niño development. So it will be interesting to see how things go since this has been the most amplified version of the pattern we have seen in December. Less amplified versions of this December pattern 1996…..1997-1998 super El Nino 1981……1982-1983 super El Niño 1980….weak El Nino 1977…..weak El Niño 1958…..strong El Niño winter before 1957…..strong El Niño

Record low sea ice thickness this year near the North Pole due to how much warmer than normal it has been there. https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

The really big story this year has been the record breaking number of days by a wide margin with wind gusts exceeding 40 and 50 mph across the area. This is the result of an unusually active storm track through the Great Lakes and to the west of the I-95 corridor. Nearly all the days with these stronger gusts had a west to northwest flow. The lack of coastal systems this year really stood out as there was only a small number of days with 40 or 50 mph gusts from a southeast to northeast direction. So a continuation of the very dominant northern stream of the Pacific Jet pattern. At least December allowed our region to get two 4-8” clipper systems for the first time during the month. But since these were northern stream storm systems, we couldn’t get into a coastal KU benchmark track. Plus the Great Lakes cutter pattern remained active so we had two warm ups with rain and fog shortly after the two snowstorms. These clippers narrowly focused the snowfall to such an extent, that it’s the first time since the 1980s and 1950s in December that the heavier 10”+ snows focused around NYC Metro. Which didn’t allow Philly and or Boston to share in the heavier 10”+snows.

If anyone on here had a super amplified 500 mb composite version of December 1996, 1981, 1980, 1977, 1958, and 1957, it would have been an outstanding December forecast on your part. We nave never seen such an amplified -WPO and Southwest ridge pattern with a -PNA trough in Canada before. This is why the pattern this December was so unusual across the CONUS and North America.

One of the coolest sights I had living in Long Beach occurred on a day like this with WAA over a deep snowpack. It was a dense fog which only extended to around 5-10 feet above the snowpack. Had to be the shallowest fog bank I ever saw on the South Shore.

My friend lived in the West End of Long Beach for many years. It was a 2nd floor add on to an original one floor beach bungalow. The construction used lally columns which allowed the apartment to sway when wind gusts started getting over 30-40 mph. So you could visibly see the hanging light fixture from the ceiling swaying from side to side. The cat would stare at this a meow especially during nor’easters.

Subsidence and sea level rise are leading to the new Miami skyscrapers slowly sinking also.

Yeah, numerous issues related to the swaying in the stronger winds.

It’s got to be a real experience living in one of these supertalls. The Brooklyn Tower is having the same issues as 432 Park. Very loud noises and more sway than the residents were told about before they bought or rented. Plus this year set the record for days with wind gusts over 40 mph by a wide margin behind all these storms racing through the Great Lakes like what we are going to see a repeat of again the next few days. https://www.instagram.com/reel/DS0cuaxDEzD/?igsh=NDg2cDVkNTFmNWk0

Classic snowpack eater dense fog across the area this morning with only around 0.12 mile visibility at spots like JFK and ISP. Dec 29, 6:51 am 42 41 96 37 SSW 8 0.12 Lt drizzle, Fog

The raw NAM point forecasts from just west of Newark out across NYC and the 5 boroughs were too low for snowfall. Multiple runs only had around 1-2 inches of snow where around 4” verified. So the NAM was overdone on the warm nose. But globals like the GFS and Euro were underdone on this feature and dry slot. So these models were incorrect to forecast warning level snows at times for NYC and points west. No one model is going to be correct about everything. So we have to blend the models to get something closer to reality. This blending is why I went 3-5” for NYC. But areas further east across Long Island where I went 5-8” were more accurately portrayed by other models. Although some NAM runs maintained all snow in these areas. We need a new NAM since the model hasn’t been updated since March 2017. One of its biggest issues is how jumpy it is from run to run. This leads to some not taking anything the model says seriously. Even when the theme that NYC and points west would nit get warning level snows which turned out to be correct.

I can see both of your points. Don is coming more from a letter of the law perspective and you from the spirit of the law. The NAM was trying to show a dry slot and a warm nose between 700-800 MB. While the NAM didn’t get the exact locations of the warm nose and dry slot correct for areas further east, it was correct in the idea that there would be lower accumulations south and west of NYC. The globals really didn’t do well with these features from around NYC and points south and west. I tried a blended approach trying to follow the spirit of what the NAM was trying to say vs the general heavy snowfall signal from the remaining guidance. So this is why earlier in this thread I went 3-5” for EWR-NYC-LGA-JFK and 5-8” for Northern Nassau out into Suffolk. I wasn’t taking the exact NAM run but trying to incorporate what is was implying about lower snowfall risks closer to NYC and points south and west. It would be great if they could replace the NAM with model that is more stable from run to run and show a good solution for the entire region. While maintain the ability to resolve the finer details than a more broad brush global models approach. Perhaps in the future we can develop an AI bridge type model that can incorporate all the models for a great areawide forecast.

The distribution of the snowfall this month between ISP, PHI, and BOS is not what we typically see when Islip has a snowy 10”+ December. This is the first time since 1988 that ISP has 10”+ in December and either Philly or Boston doesn’t have at least 10” also. It’s why we may not be able to use the snowy December winter analogs that followed the other 10” December years on the list. This is due to the 10” at ISP being the first December with two 5”+ clippers that had narrower areas with heavy snow than benchmark coastal snowstorms that also affected Philly or Boston in the other snowy Decembers at Islip. So it will be interesting to see how the rest of the winter plays out at all three locations. All 10”+ snowy Decembers at ISP and the Boston and Philly snowfall 2009…ISP…25.3”….BOS….15.2”….PHI….24.1” 2002…ISP….16.0”….BOS….11.1”……PHI….8.4” 2003…ISP….15.5”…..BOS….21.5”….PHI….6.0” 2010….ISP….14.9”…..BOS…..22.0”…PHI…12.7” 1995….ISP…..13.3”…..BOS…..12.6”….PHI….7.3” 2025….ISP…12.4”…..BOS…..2.3”……PHI….4.5” 1969….ISP….12.0”…..BOS……12.6”….PHI….7.5” 1975…..ISP….11.4”…..BOS…..19.3”……PHI….7.5” 1963…..ISP…..11.0”….BOS….17.7”…….PHI….8.0” 2000….ISP…..10.8”….BOS….4.5”….…PHI…..10.5” 2008….ISP…..10.4”….BOS….25.3”…..PHI…..0.4” 1988…..ISP…..10.4”….BOS….3.7”……PHI…..0.4”