bluewave

Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow If July ended today, it would tie with 1936 as the warmest July (and month) on record for the Contiguous U.S. Looking at the forecast for the rest of the month, I suspect we will not quite break the 1936 record. 1:17 PM · Jul 22, 2026 Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow Map showing how many months so far in 2026 (Thru July 17th) each of the 385 "ThreadEx" stations have set or tied a monthly record high or low temperature record. So far, the totals are: 147 months with a new (set/tie) record high and 16 with a new (set/tie) record low (no duplicates). 9:26 PM · Jul 18, 2026

Still have a ways to go to reverse this long term drought. Some areas saw small improvement. But the heaviest downpours were more localized which is common with convection.

An interesting question is why the recent 2023 developing super El Niño was able to break from the warmer 2020s -PDO/+AMO summer atmospheric mid-latitude pattern and this one in 2026 hasn’t so far? We’ll have to just wait and see how things go heading into the fall and winter. Since a lingering -PDO atmospheric pattern could potentially alter the state of the Aleutian low and possibly even where the maximum STJ precipitation zones set up.

The -PDO/+AMO atmospheric pattern is the dominant player this summer so far across the CONUS.

The CONUS didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be having a cooler super El Niño summer. We knew something was going to be different with the record heat that began to emerge back in May. What if anything this says about the rest of the event remains to be seen.

Yeah, I have posted several times on this. Recent studies have found the cold blob has been more a result of stronger winds than related to the AMOC. But it’s possible the +NAO could be a result of other circulation changes from the warming that the climate models haven’t become advanced enough to detect. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello.bsky.social · 8mo Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole. Sang-Ki Lee @sklee621.bsky.social · 8mo The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t... The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant… ocean2climate.org 1

I had some posts a while back that focused on the temperatures during the days that .25 of an inch or more of precipitation fell in NYC. No surprise the average temperatures on those days were only cold enough for 2 out of the last 7 winters during 2020s to make it to average to above average snowfall. This is a function of both storm track and warming temperatures. The colder storm track day seasons were in 2020-2021 and 2025-2026. 2021-2022 made the list from ACY to ISP due to January 2022 being such an outstanding month for storms just east of the benchmark. So the batting average at ISP this decade is a little better at 3 out of 7 years reaching average to above average snowfall. This is a departure from the 2010s when we managed to have average to above average seasonal snowfall even during some of the warmest winters like 2015-2016 and 2016-2017. Those winters featured cold storm tracks. Your Dave Kingman reference was a good one when I mentioned how we have become an all or nothing type snowfall climate around NYC Metro since the 1990s. Either big home runs or strikeouts. Very few seasons in the middle near average anymore these days relative to pre 1990s.

The extreme Arctic warmth during recent summers has been focused more on the Atlantic side. This has left the Pacific sector under relatively better conditions. The circulation shift since 2013 has allowed the September average extent to average in the 4.1 to 4.9 million sq km range.

The next potential record breaking 600 DM ridge amplification will be much further west over the Rockies next week than the recent one over the Upper Midwest. That’s good news for our part of the CONUS. Most summers since 2010 with 100° heat in June and July for our area remained under 100° in August. Hope that recent pattern continues. Still not an El Niño-like pattern but an improvement for the Northeast.

Boston just had their warmest June 1st to July 16th. Significantly warmer than any other developing super El Niño. So an unusually strong mid-latitude or subtropical ridge response for such a strong El Niño. This year was +5.5° above the mean of the previous 5 early summer average. Developing super El Niño June 1st to July 16th average temperatures 2026….73.9° 2023….68.9° 2015…..67.3° 1997…..70.5° 1982….66.9° 1972….68.2°

The weak dipole pattern has resulted in some parts of the Pacific side having their slowest melt since 1994. This pressure reversal since 2013 has allowed the 2012 low extent record to stand to this day. Since 2012 had big Pacific side melt with record dipole pattern. Some of the climate models actually forecast this weaker dipole pattern with the record mid-latitude heatwaves that we have been experiencing. The AMS presentation from 2014 below is worth a viewing when you have some free time. It’s essentially the Northern Hemisphere summer pattern that we have experienced since 2015. Rick Thoman @alaskawx.bsky.social Follow Sea ice is very slowly melting the Chukchi Sea, but only slowly. Ice extent as of July 18 is well above last year and is the highest for the date since 1994(!) in NSIDC data. Sea ice in the Beaufort Sea has also been slow to melt but is now slightly lower than mid-July 2025. #akwx #Arctic #SeaIce ALT 2:01 PM · Jul 19, 2026

The good news is that the next potential 600 DM ridge will be further west than last week.

This was my heaviest rainfall in an hour since moving up to CT. Picked up 3.18 yesterday from around 1:50 to 2:50 PM. The daily total in my area was 3.72.

Pretty wild how we have had elements of the summer 2011 weather pattern against the backdrop of such an extreme developing El Nino. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 106.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 106.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 3 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 4 103.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 103.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 103.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18

Some extreme effects from this record developing El Nino showing up in South America.