bluewave

Probably related to how warm the subsurface is from Japan to south of the Aleutians. So every time the PDO rises it meets resistance right around neutral. Will be interesting to see what the ceiling is for the PDO as the super El Niño intensifies going into the late fall and winter. The Euro seasonal maintains the warm pool there through February.

Really unusual fall into spring pattern that year. All-time October warmth followed by not much winter to speak of. Then the record late T of snow in May. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct top 5 warmest maximum temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2019 96 0 2 1941 93 0 3 1949 92 0 4 1959 91 0 5 1939 90 0 - 1938 90 0 - 1908 90 0 Monthly Data for October 2019 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ HARRISON COOP 95 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 94 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 94 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 93 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 91 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 91 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 91 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 91 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 90

Depends on the year since the ridge location and intensity has been quite variable during previous super El Niño Octobers. This year is doing its own thing so far with the ridges stronger and further south than usual. We’ll have to see what the pattern looks like in early October since all we have now is a snapshot for the start of the month.

The ensemble means are wetter than the OPS over the next 10 days. We have a system that moves through this weekend with some locally heavy rain potential. Then a slow moving cutoff develops next week that could linger until day 8-10.

80s have become more common in October during the last decade. We even had November 80s two years during the 2020s. The average for warm spots like Newark has been 4 days reaching 80° past the end of September. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Oct-Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3 0 4 2025 4 0 4 2024 4 2 6 2023 6 0 6 2022 0 1 1 2021 5 0 5 2020 0 0 0 2019 3 0 3 2018 3 0 3 2017 5 0 5 2016 3 0 3 First/Last 80° Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 02-21 (2018) 09-28 (2020) 181 Mean 03-28 10-18 203 Maximum 04-15 (2024) 11-06 (2024) 2025 03-29 (2025) 85 10-07 (2025) 83 191 2024 04-15 (2024) 83 11-06 (2024) 83 204 2023 04-06 (2023) 83 10-28 (2023) 84 204 2022 04-14 (2022) 88 11-07 (2022) 81 206 2021 03-26 (2021) 84 10-20 (2021) 80 207 2020 03-20 (2020) 80 09-28 (2020) 81 191 2019 04-08 (2019) 80 10-07 (2019) 80 181 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231 2017 04-10 (2017) 82 10-21 (2017) 81 193 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223

We have a shot at 3 months in a row where part of the region goes 10”+. Monthly Data for September 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 8.22 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 7.97 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 7.64 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 7.36 CT TRUMBULL 2.6 SSE CoCoRaHS 7.14 CT STAMFORD 1.0 S CoCoRaHS 6.69 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 6.68 NJ FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE CoCoRaHS 6.63 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 6.55 Monthly Data for August 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 12.48 NJ LINDEN 2.2 NW CoCoRaHS 12.19 NJ HARRISON COOP 11.78 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.99 NY FRANKLIN SQUARE 1.1 N CoCoRaHS 10.92 NJ CLARK TWP 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.88 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.88 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 10.19 Monthly Data for July 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 17.14 NY PEEKSKILL 2.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 16.45 CT BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 15.83 CT DANBURY COOP 15.12 NY NELSONVILLE 0.3 S CoCoRaHS 14.54 CT NEWTOWN 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 14.51 CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 14.07 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 13.97 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 13.93 NY GARRISON 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 13.76 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 13.64 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 13.60 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 13.43 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 13.23 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 13.12 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 13.11 CT BETHEL 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 13.09 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 13.08 CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 12.93 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 2.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 12.43 CT TRUMBULL 2.6 SSE CoCoRaHS 12.43 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 12.42 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 12.33 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 11.95 CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 11.84 NY SEAFORD 0.4 SE CoCoRaHS 11.82 NY LAKE CARMEL 0.7 NE CoCoRaHS 11.75 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 11.71 CT SOUTHBURY 2.3 W CoCoRaHS 11.53 NY PATTERSON 1.3 E CoCoRaHS 11.28 CT GUILFORD COOP 11.19 NY NEW WINDSOR 3.3 W CoCoRaHS 11.18 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 11.17 CT DURHAM 1.2 W CoCoRaHS 11.14 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 11.13 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.06 CT LEDYARD 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 11.04 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 11.03 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 10.97 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.96 CT RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 10.92 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 10.88 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.83 CT ANSONIA 1 NW COOP 10.78 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 10.73 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 10.69 CT CROMWELL 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.62 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.1 N CoCoRaHS 10.55 NJ RIVER EDGE 0.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.32 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.31 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 10.30 CT LEDYARD 2.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.25 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 10.22 NJ FAIR LAWN 0.9 E CoCoRaHS 10.22 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 10.21 CT NORWICH 5.4 SE CoCoRaHS 10.17 NJ WAYNE TWP 2.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.13 CT SHERMAN 1.2 E CoCoRaHS 10.13 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 10.13 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 10.05 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 10.04 CT WALLINGFORD 3.1 N CoCoRaHS 10.03

I like the Euro monthly forecasts issued on the 5th which have been doing a pretty good job compared to some of the other guidance.

Overlapping forecast signal showing up near the start of October. A more traditional Nino ridge south of Hudson Bay developing. With the lingering mid-latitude ridge underneath.

Especially with the most recent runs moving to cutoff the upper low under the big ridge.

The continuing record WWBs are making this the strongest east based event for so early in the season.

Yeah, looks like a very wet pattern coming up with lows and stalled fronts undercutting the big high to our north and plenty of easterly flow.

Yeah, we could see a subtropical or tropical system eventually form next 2 weeks somewhere to our south. Not what the waterlogged parts of the region want to hear. Even if we don’t get a well defined system, the high moisture could lead to heavy downpours with weak lows and stalled fronts.

September 500mb ridge axis continues to be much further south and stronger than past developing super El Niño events. This has lead to the record warmth across the CONUS this month. At the least the trough near the West Coast matches with the other years. But it’s a weaker area of low pressure than 1997.

More of the same since the big 2007 shift. So most years making a forecast for a minimum in the 4s has done very well. The exceptions were a little above in 2009, 2013 and 2014. The only years below 4 million sq km were 2012 and 2020. My guess is that we would need a strong dipole pattern like we saw from 2007-2012 to challenge the 2012 record. 2020 came the closest but quickly fell behind during the early August period which had the big storm back in 2012. I suppose the other possibility is that we get a really warm Arctic winter into spring some day that allows us to surpass the 2012 with a less extreme summer. But that hasn’t been the case so far as all these weak dipole summers since 2013 have made the 2012 minimum to challenging to pass. The volume remains so low with the loss of older sea ice that even a very favorable pressure pattern this summer like this one can’t get us back to pre 2005-2007 extents. While there was significant cold near the North Pole at times early this summer, it was too narrowly focused to do much. The overall Arctic was near the warmest summer on record. This became obvious with the recent record open water close to the North Pole. https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/new-abnormal The new abnormal THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2024 Since 2007, the Arctic sea ice minimum has dropped below 5 million square kilometers (1.93 million square miles) every year, except in 2009, 2013, and 2014, when extent barely crossed the 5 million square kilometer mark. Such low extents would have been hard to imagine in the 1990s, when extent averaged 6.46 million square kilometers (2.49 million square miles). This persistent new normal, and the related losses of most of the old and thick ice, are prominent characteristics of the new, warmer Arctic—resiliently low in ice cover despite more than a decade of variations in seasonal climate patterns and oceanconditions. Rick Thoman @alaskawx.bsky.social Follow Arctic-wide sea ice extent has (very likely) reached the minimum for 2026 In NSIDC analysis. At 4.60 million square kilometers (about 2.5 times the size of Alaska), this ties with last year for the 11th lowest since 1979. But that's still lower than every year's min prior to 2007. #Arctic #SeaIce ALT 12:55 PM · Sep 18, 2026

Starting the day out with minimums near 70°. So the warmer minimum departures this month have been a bit more impressive than the maxes. The cool down next week follows this theme. Clouds, easterly flow, and rain will keep the maximum departures cooler than the minimum departures.