bluewave

Gorgeous sunset this evening near the CT Shoreline.

The AIFS did a nice job looping this back to the coast from over 220 hrs out last week.

Yeah, the mean tide forecast tomorrow for the GSB is just below the Hurricane Irene mark which maxed out at the +5.5 level.

Yeah, Sandy Hook could reach the 9ft level or a bit higher which would only require a 3.5 foot surge on top of the 5.5 astronomical level with the full moon tomorrow morning. A 4 foot surge coinciding with the morning height tide would get to the 9.5 foot level. The back bays of Long Island could see an even higher surge relative to their locations. The models have a tide level in Freeport forecast close to 8 foot mark. That would approach the Hurricane Irene tide level.

Latest tide forecast gets Sandy Hook near the 10th highest tide level tomorrow and highest tide of the 2020s. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8531680

Latest SPC HREF Max is similar to the RGEM showing 5”+ potential on Long Island where the best banding develops NW of the center. But the location of these bands often shifts right up to storm time. So we’ll have to review again later with the new guidance today.

Another PDO drop as we approach the all-time warmest SSTs this time of year ENE of Japan and south of the Aleutians.

The Euro and NAM keep the 10”+ maxes offshore due to the loop back west occurring further to the south. So the exact track will make a big difference here. But all the guidance is saying the same thing just with different tracks.

Really impressive hybrid system on the 0z Euro. Develops a +20C warm seclusion type core as it loops back to the coast. 75 mph gusts just offshore with 60-70 mph gusts close to the shore. An IVT like feature with 4-5” back to the coast and a tropical-like 13” max offshore. So our strongest nor’easter of the 2020s so far. The tide surge forecasts will probably take a few days to catch up with coastal flooding levels since they usually become accurate within 24-36 hours of the event. The exact location of the loop back to the coast will be important as to timing and location of the highest tides.

A combination of Cocorahs and COOP sites. Your area does pretty well and is on par with MPO. It’s too bad they don’t have a contract snowfall observer at MPO. Since there is quite a bit of missing snowfall data there when there weren’t volunteer observers nearby in the past. Data for October 1, 2025 through April 30, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 60.4 PORTLAND 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 50.2 BOWMANSTOWN 3.0 WSW CoCoRaHS 41.8 PALMERTON 5.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 41.6 TATAMY 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 39.0 SLATINGTON 6.0 WSW CoCoRaHS 38.7 TREMONT 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 37.9 MARTINS CREEK COOP 37.7 SCHNECKSVILLE 1.7 ENE CoCoRaHS 37.4 NAZARETH 1.1 W CoCoRaHS 36.8 ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 35.5 Data for October 1, 2025 through April 30, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. RICHMONDALE 0.1 NE CoCoRaHS 59.1 MILFORD 8.7 NW CoCoRaHS 58.1 MOUNT POCONO 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 57.9 DYBERRY 2.1 W CoCoRaHS 56.7 CANADENSIS EAST COOP 56.1 PLEASANT MOUNT 1 W COOP 53.8 EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 53.5 LORDS VALLEY 2.5 SE CoCoRaHS 52.6 CANAAN - 11 CoCoRaHS 52.3 MOSCOW 4.9 E CoCoRaHS 51.5 EFFORT 3.2 NNW CoCoRaHS 46.9 PROMPTON DAM COOP 42.0 WEST HAZLETON 3.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 38.5 WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 37.8

It’s interesting that the greatest October +EPO variation from the El Niño -EPO mean occurred in 1982 and 1997. October 2023, 2015, and 1972 were more Nino-like in that regard. But the North Pacific low is becoming more active than it has been which you pointed out in your post.

While we are still only getting a snapshot for the start of October, a +EPO is classic La Niña for October. We’ll see if heights can rebound a bit near Alaska which is more typical for El Niño. Still to early to tell where the ridge and trough locations finish for the entire month.

If the difference is mostly on clear nights with calm winds, then it could just be variations in radiational cooling. Even a very light wind can make a difference between a spot that has completely calm winds. Plus there could be some differences related to varying altitudes. Data for September 1, 2026 through September 23, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 53.9 NJ HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 54.7 NJ BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 56.5 NJ SCHOOLEY'S MOUNTAIN 1 SW COOP 56.5 NJ SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 56.8 PA MARTINS CREEK COOP 57.2 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 57.7 PA LEHIGHTON 1SSW COOP 57.9 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 58.3 PA BLUE MARSH LAKE COOP 58.4 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 58.4 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 58.8 PA ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 59.6 NJ PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 59.7 NJ BOONTON 1 SE COOP 59.7 PA SELLERSVILLE COOP 59.8 NJ AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 59.8 Climatological Data for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - September 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1576 1186 - - 78 33 3.19 Average 71.6 53.9 62.8 2.3 - - - Normal 70.0 50.9 60.5 - 121 21 4.03 2026-09-01 82 65 73.5 10.0 0 9 0.10 2026-09-02 69 62 65.5 2.3 0 1 0.41 2026-09-03 81 62 71.5 8.5 0 7 0.37 2026-09-04 76 63 69.5 6.7 0 5 0.00 2026-09-05 73 57 65.0 2.5 0 0 0.00 2026-09-06 72 52 62.0 -0.2 3 0 0.00 2026-09-07 72 48 60.0 -2.0 5 0 0.00 2026-09-08 74 47 60.5 -1.2 4 0 0.00 2026-09-09 75 53 64.0 2.6 1 0 0.01 2026-09-10 78 62 70.0 8.9 0 5 0.23 2026-09-11 71 50 60.5 -0.3 4 0 0.00 2026-09-12 72 46 59.0 -1.4 6 0 T 2026-09-13 76 62 69.0 8.9 0 4 0.44 2026-09-14 65 44 54.5 -5.3 10 0 0.00 2026-09-15 67 39 53.0 -6.4 12 0 0.00 2026-09-16 77 51 64.0 4.9 1 0 0.00 2026-09-17 71 63 67.0 8.3 0 2 0.66 2026-09-18 74 54 64.0 5.6 1 0 0.00 2026-09-19 63 53 58.0 0.0 7 0 0.05 2026-09-20 64 55 59.5 1.8 5 0 0.76 2026-09-21 64 50 57.0 -0.3 8 0 0.14 2026-09-22 60 48 54.0 -2.9 11 0 0.02 2026-09-23 M M M M M M M 2026-09-24 M M M M M M M 2026-09-25 M M M M M M M 2026-09-26 M M M M M M M 2026-09-27 M M M M M M M 2026-09-28 M M M M M M M 2026-09-29 M M M M M M M 2026-09-30 M M M M M M M

It will find a way to rain on the weekend especially here on the CT Shoreline. Bridgeport has seen rain nearly every weekend going back to July. I bolded the weekend days below to show how consistent this pattern has been. Rainfall Data for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-07-01 1.03 2026-07-02 0.00 2026-07-03 0.00 2026-07-04 0.46 2026-07-05 0.95 2026-07-06 2.85 2026-07-07 T 2026-07-08 0.00 2026-07-09 0.00 2026-07-10 0.00 2026-07-11 0.00 2026-07-12 0.00 2026-07-13 0.00 2026-07-14 0.00 2026-07-15 0.00 2026-07-16 0.00 2026-07-17 0.00 2026-07-18 1.15 2026-07-19 0.00 2026-07-20 0.00 2026-07-21 2.59 2026-07-22 0.00 2026-07-23 0.00 2026-07-24 0.00 2026-07-25 0.00 2026-07-26 0.00 2026-07-27 0.00 2026-07-28 T 2026-07-29 2.90 2026-07-30 0.40 2026-07-31 0.00 2026-08-01 0.00 2026-08-02 0.02 2026-08-03 0.97 2026-08-04 0.00 2026-08-05 T 2026-08-06 T 2026-08-07 0.33 2026-08-08 0.05 2026-08-09 0.00 2026-08-10 0.02 2026-08-11 0.00 2026-08-12 0.00 2026-08-13 0.98 2026-08-14 0.04 2026-08-15 0.00 2026-08-16 0.03 2026-08-17 0.18 2026-08-18 T 2026-08-19 0.00 2026-08-20 1.36 2026-08-21 0.00 2026-08-22 0.02 2026-08-23 2.36 2026-08-24 T 2026-08-25 0.00 2026-08-26 0.00 2026-08-27 T 2026-08-28 T 2026-08-29 0.00 2026-08-30 0.03 2026-08-31 T 2026-09-01 1.12 2026-09-02 0.09 2026-09-03 0.11 2026-09-04 0.29 2026-09-05 0.12 2026-09-06 0.01 2026-09-07 0.00 2026-09-08 0.00 2026-09-09 0.00 2026-09-10 T 2026-09-11 0.00 2026-09-12 0.00 2026-09-13 4.25 2026-09-14 0.00 2026-09-15 0.00 2026-09-16 T 2026-09-17 T 2026-09-18 0.01 2026-09-19 0.00 2026-09-20 0.43 2026-09-21 0.01

It’s as if the spring into summer pattern was influenced by the rapid reversal in the Arctic. Notice how we developed a strong blocking pattern over the Arctic following the record early SSW back in November. This pattern locked in through the record blizzard in late February. Then rapidly reversed in March and we continue to see a deep vortex near the North Pole that we have been discussing. It’s possible that’s why the +AAM didn’t translate to the mid-latitudes this summer. Since even the strong -PDO summer of 2023 was still able to have a more Nino-like 500mb pattern. The usual developing super El Niño summer normally has a strong 500mb ridge near the North Pole over the summer.