Jump to content

bluewave

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    37,015

  • Joined

  • Last visited

4 Followers

About bluewave

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    KHVN

Recent Profile Visitors

68,221 profile views
  1. bluewave
    Some stations in NJ just set their May monthly maximum high temperature when they reached 100°. In early July multiple stations were within a few degrees of their monthly max for July and all-time high. Last June Baiting Hollow on Eastern LI reached 103° far from any urbanization and may have been the highest all-time temperature for that area. So all stations regardless of how urbanized they have been experiencing record heat. The drier pattern from the 1940s to early 2000s produced monthly maxes in August and September which haven’t been matched. Probably related to the early extreme summer heat in recent years turning wetter as we move into August and September. You will notice we had all-time record October heat as recently at 2019 in the mid 90s. That was the result of a flash drought which developed later in the season. February 2018 was probably our most extreme monthly max of any month reaching 80° for the first time at the areas away from the cooler ocean influence. A summer extreme of that magnitude would give the usual warm spots a reading in the 110° to 112° range.
  2. bluewave
    Seasonal model forecasts for super El Niños usually have warmer temperatures across Canada and the Northern tier states into the Northeast. So in that general sense they usually end up correct. But they haven’t been correct with the magnitude of the warmth. Spots that wound up with +10 or more months have only been forecast to be something like +1 to 3 or maybe +2 to +4. Plus each of the 3 super El Niños since the late 90s had other variations in regard to where the ridge axis was located vs forecast. 1997-1998 was our only east based event of that era with a strong +PDO and no Maritime Continent forcing. But it started out cooler in the East during December and got progressively warmer during January and February. So it didn’t follow the general El Niño progression. It also had a strong -AO in January that linked up with the Southeast ridge even with such a strong STJ. The models had the stock El Niño composite for December 2015 as late as November 2023 with warmer north and cooler south. We wound up with the warmest December on record in the East greater than +13 in spots which were forecast to be something like +1 to +3. Strong +PDO that winter and a Maritime Cintinent influence in December 2023-2024 was forecast to be only something like +1 to 3 for places which verified more than +10. The event had a -PDO with Maritime Continent influence. This event is stronger than all three of those events. So the models probably won’t start showing the actual December pattern until into the first week of December. The January pattern probably won’t begin to show up until closer to New Years. And the actual February pattern until that month starts also.
  3. bluewave
    Almost seems like an aspect of a more monsoonal type climate when the highest annual temperatures occur earlier before the heavier rains arrive.
  4. bluewave
    Our 100° days have been occurring earlier than in the past. Spots in NJ had their earliest 100° day back on May 19th-20th. No 100° days after August 10th during the 2020s. We haven’t had a 100° day after August 10th since 2005. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Earliest and Latest in Bold during the 2020s Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 106.0 2026-07-03 2 103.0 2026-07-04 - 103.0 2025-06-25 - 103.0 2025-06-24 3 102.0 2025-07-30 - 102.0 2022-07-25 4 101.0 2025-07-31 - 101.0 2024-07-17 - 101.0 2022-08-10 - 101.0 2022-07-24 - 101.0 2021-06-30 5 100.0 2026-07-02 - 100.0 2026-05-20 - 100.0 2025-07-26 - 100.0 2025-06-26 - 100.0 2024-08-02 - 100.0 2024-06-22 - 100.0 2022-07-23 - 100.0 2021-07-01 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ 100° days after August 10th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1953-09-30 5 0 2 1993-09-30 3 0 3 1948-09-30 2 0 - 1944-09-30 2 0 4 2005-09-30 1 0 - 2002-09-30 1 0 - 1973-09-30 1 0 - 1949-09-30 1 0 - 1881-09-30 1 0
  5. bluewave
    Near record AMO rise helping to boost the dew points.
  6. bluewave
    It just keeps climbing with the record breaking WWBs continuing.
  7. bluewave
    The main reason the pattern was more favorable in 1995-1996 was the much more extensive and longer duration cold into April. Plus the -NAO patterns were able to lock in during those days from the late fall into the spring. This time around we got the fastAO/ NAO reversal in March shutting off the snows. No doubt 2025-2026 was the very best winter of the 2020s. So it’s good to know that we at least were able to get a weaker reflection of that season. This was the first time that a weak La Niña with the 3 ridge pattern over the Bering, Baja, and Greenland occurred in 30 years. But the ridges were much stronger limiting the cold. It also took two seasons following that one for a super El Niño to develop. This time the super El Niño was instantaneous right after the winter.
  8. bluewave
    You have to realize that this forum goes well beyond IMBY type posts. In order to understand the local IMBY weather patterns, you have to see the bigger picture. One of the key reasons our area wasn’t able to experience a repeat of 1995-1996 this past winter was the overpowering nature of the ridges and warmth to our West. So the cold and upper trough wasn’t strong enough to reproduce the historic outcome of 1995-1996. That warmth came east in March preventing the heavy March and April 1996 snows from repeating. Our weather patterns have greatly shifted warmer since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. So the areas where the strongest 500mb ridges have set up produced these +10 extremes which weren’t forecast ahead of time. There has never been an 11 year period since 1895 with 17 months this extreme. You can find a scattering of isolated cases back over time. Plus we are doing it with the warmest 30 year climate normals in record making it even more impressive.
  9. bluewave
    The actual tornado was in Brooklyn. But since the rotation remained so strong on radar into SW Nassau, the NWS maintained the tornado warmings out of an abundance of caution. I was glad there was no tornado when it got to Long Beach. But it was really cool to see the swirl in the clouds directly overhead when the weakened supercell moved over my area. September 1998 was the strongest tornado near the South Shore in my time living there. The Labor Day Derecho caused the sky to go dark between 2-3 in the afternoon. Then I had my only .75 hail and severe gusts from a single storm on the South Shore. The actual tornado was in Lynbrook and the damage path was clearly visible near the neighborhood close to Sunrise Highway.
  10. bluewave
    It also goes beyond what phase the ENSO is in. But the warmest actual departure was +17.5 at FAR in the Feb 2024 super El Niño. This past winter was a weak La Niña with each month from December to March producing a +10 at some stations in the CONUS. No seasonal model forecast this. So we have a total of 17 months since the 2015-2016 super El Niño increased the baseline temperatures with +10 departures at some CONUS stations. None of the seasonal models forecast these either. Prior to 2015-2016 there were only a few +10 or greater months across the CONUS. These were March 2012 and January 2006. The list below includes the 17 months and the station close to warmest departures during each month. So there were numerous other stations over the+10 level during these months. DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3 MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3 DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1 JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2 FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3 MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5
  11. bluewave
    +10 months have been fairly common during super El Niño events since 1997-1998. Areas adjacent to the +10s also had very high temperature departures. Regions with the most overlapping high departures across multiple months finished the warmest for DJF. But since all seasonal models default to general climatology due to long range forecast uncertainty, none of the months were forecast ahead of time to my knowledge. The most common locations have been from the Upper Plains and Midwest across to the East. December 2015 was the most extreme for the aerial coverage and magnitude of the 10+ area. As early as November 22, 2015, the EPS weeklies were showing just moderately above average temperatures across the Northern Tier for December. So the long range models gave no indication of what occurred. +10 months since 1997-1998 Dec 1997 Upper Plains to Upper Midwest Jan 1998 Upper Plains to East Feb 1998 Upper Plains to East Dec 2015 Much of East Feb 2016 Upper Plains Mar 2016 Upper Midwest Dec 2023 Upper Midwest Feb 2024 Upper Midwest
  12. bluewave
    I remember that morning really well. It was one of the biggest weather events from 2006 to 2008. The only time a rotating wall cloud came right over my location in Long Beach. So NWS issued a tornado warning for my area due to how strong the rotation was on radar. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 650 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... EASTERN KINGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 715 AM EDT... * AT 644 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CANARSIE... OR ABOUT NEAR CROWN HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... JAMAICA BY 700 AM... KENNEDY AIRPORT BY 705 AM... CEDARHURST BY 710 AM... WOODMERE...VALLEY STREAM...LYNBROOK AND ATLANTIC BEACH BY 715 AM. WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
  13. bluewave
    Yeah, we got the record heat back in early July. This time it’s the high dew points making headlines. Straight from the tropics.
  14. bluewave
    Looks like the heat and humidity will begin to ease up next week.
  15. bluewave
    The list is different for each station due to local dew point variations. The record for Newark was set in 1995. While the JFK record was back in 2016.
×
×
  • Create New...