bluewave

1997-1998 was a great example of what happens when the STJ overpowers the pattern with too much warmth. NYC only finished with 5.5 inches of snow that season. Many lows running to the Ohio Valley and then tracking very close to the area. I made a composite of the 12 heaviest precipitation days that winter. 12 heaviest precipitation storm days in NYC during DJF 1997-1998 and the storm track progression

Mike Flannigan @mikeflannigan.bsky.social Follow Graphs showing cumulative area burned and carbon emissions in Ontario. Note in terms of area burned 2021 is the top spot but 2026 is top spot in terms of carbon emissions. Both are correct. The reason for this is that the 2026 fires are more severe - consumed more biomass (greater depth of burn). ALT ALT 7:12 PM · Jul 19, 2026 Everybody can reply

Our area will finish July much wetter than much of the CONUS which has been experiencing record heat and drought.

Just saying it’s going to be positive isn’t much of a stretch. But my examples of 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 both featured positive +PNA patterns. The magnitude and character of the positive is the question here which is a function of where the main Nino ridge and Aleutian trough complex becomes established. Plus we have the difference between the CPC PNA and the 500 mb PNA at times. Sometimes we get bootleg +PNA patterns like in January 2023 with a deep trough underneath the Canadian ridge out West which many consider a -PNA. We may have to be patient before getting something more closely resembling an El Niño pattern across the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

We may not start to get a better idea about things until the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude 500 mb pattern actually couples with the El Niño. This continues to be a strong -PDO 500 mb pattern which has translated into the drop in the SST PDO and the near record ridge north of Hawaii. Have never seen the Southern Hemisphere so fully coupled with the El Niño standing wave while the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes are so out of sync. I will compare the VP charts for July in early August against previous super events when JMA posts them. My only guess is that the standing wave appears to be centered more to the south of the equator than usual. But not really sure since we haven’t seen this disparity with the summers of 2023, 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972. Perhaps the pattern will slowly begin to shift in the Northern Hemisphere to more of a standard Nino look in the next few months.

2009 was one of my favorite summers back in Long Beach. Comfortable temperatures and smaller beach crowds. Really the last time that we had a cool June and July by long term climate standards. The 19th coolest June and July average temperature at Newark with records now back to the 1840s was very impressive. The actual coolest average temperature since 1940. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Coolest June 1st to July 31st Periods. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1859-07-31 67.8 0 2 1862-07-31 68.2 0 3 1903-07-31 68.3 0 4 1857-07-31 68.8 0 5 1867-07-31 69.1 0 - 1863-07-31 69.1 0 6 1924-07-31 69.3 32 7 1860-07-31 69.5 0 8 1861-07-31 69.6 0 9 1902-07-31 70.1 0 - 1871-07-31 70.1 0 - 1864-07-31 70.1 0 10 1916-07-31 70.2 0 11 1918-07-31 70.5 0 - 1907-07-31 70.5 0 - 1869-07-31 70.5 0 12 1904-07-31 70.7 0 - 1851-07-31 70.7 0 13 1893-07-31 71.0 0 - 1875-07-31 71.0 0 - 1855-07-31 71.0 0 14 1868-07-31 71.1 0 15 1881-07-31 71.2 0 16 1897-07-31 71.3 0 17 1915-07-31 71.4 0 - 1914-07-31 71.4 0 18 1940-07-31 71.5 0 - 1884-07-31 71.5 0 - 1873-07-31 71.5 0 19 2009-07-31 71.6 0 - 1874-07-31 71.6 0

Given the much larger WPAC pool than 1997-1998, this makes sense. Many decades of steady ocean warming since then. So it also would not be a surprise if the stronger WPAC warm pool resulted in less ENSO cooling than 1998-1999 to 2000-2001. We could even see this event linger longer into 2027 due to how much ocean heat will be accumulating in the ENSO regions. It will be an important case study on how the tropical Pacific responds once the +30C warm pool gets pushed so far east of the Dateline which has never happened in our modern climate. It would be interesting to know why we couldn’t get WWBs this strong in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 to really tap the expanded WPAC warm pool until now?

Cutoff lows with training convection are a pretty good signal for more flash flooding. Parts of the area are already 10.00+ for July. So the wettest month here in over a year. If this keeps up next few months, then it could be a sign of the longer term drought since September 2024 is beginning to relax. We’ll see more gradual improvement when the drought monitor and soil moisture updates this week. Last week the CT Shoreline experienced extreme rainfall rates. Many spots recorded more than 3.00 inches in one hour and 1.00 inch + in only 15 minutes.This lead to the rapid runoff from the land to the sea carving out 5-foot canyons through the beach. Locals have never seen this before in the area. Monthly Data for July 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 11.98 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 11.66 CT BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 11.60 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 11.42 CT DANBURY COOP 10.70 NY PEEKSKILL 2.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.59 CT NEWTOWN 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 10.54 CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.35 CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.20 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.11

NYC can have a similar temperature as Newark on days with S to NE cooler onshore flow. Newark gets a cooling breeze off the bay and Central Park doesn’t since it’s not right on the water like the airport at Newark is. A few days ago with more offshore flow Newark was warmer again since they didn’t have a cooling breeze. The days when the trees have a more significant cooling influence relative to the airports are more offshore flow days with SW to NW flow at Newark. Also cloudy days since this removes the cooling influence of the trees when it’s not sunny. Onshore flow similar temperatures CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 234 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 26 2026... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 85 310 PM 99 1940 87 -2 85 1989 2005 MINIMUM 65 526 AM 57 1953 70 -5 76 AVERAGE 75 78 -3 81 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 2.72 1985 0.15 -0.15 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 4.31 3.84 0.47 3.21 SINCE JUN 1 6.83 8.18 -1.35 5.50 SINCE JAN 1 20.65 26.55 -5.90 20.56 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 T 2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUN 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUN 1 0 14 -14 10 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 10 13 -3 16 MONTH TO DATE 359 343 16 437 SINCE JUN 1 674 588 86 767 SINCE JAN 1 829 672 157 849 ................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 10 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (190) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 15 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SE (150) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 4.5 822 CDUS41 KOKX 270634 CLINYC CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 234 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026 ................................... ...THE CENTRAL PARK NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 26 2026... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1869 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 85 211 PM 98 1940 85 0 85 MINIMUM 64 536 AM 55 1920 70 -6 74 AVERAGE 75 78 -3 80 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 3.24 2000 0.15 -0.15 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 3.69 3.78 -0.09 3.43 SINCE JUN 1 7.08 8.32 -1.24 5.89 SINCE JAN 1 21.51 27.49 -5.98 24.45 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUN 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUN 1 4 15 -11 16 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 10 13 -3 15 MONTH TO DATE 314 327 -13 368 SINCE JUN 1 576 553 23 640 SINCE JAN 1 714 634 80 697 ................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 9 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (40) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 16 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (50) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 1.6 Offshore flow Newark 5 degrees warmer with no cooling seabreeze CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 219 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 22 2026... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 90 348 PM 108 2011 87 3 80 MINIMUM 72 1159 PM 56 1944 70 2 67 AVERAGE 81 78 3 74 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 1.78 2019 0.16 -0.16 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 4.31 3.21 1.10 2.70 SINCE JUN 1 6.83 7.55 -0.72 4.99 SINCE JAN 1 20.65 25.92 -5.27 20.05 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUN 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUN 1 0 14 -14 10 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 16 14 2 9 MONTH TO DATE 326 291 35 372 SINCE JUN 1 641 536 105 702 SINCE JAN 1 796 620 176 784 ................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 22 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION N (350) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 32 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION W (270) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 14.2 CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 432 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026 ................................... ...THE CENTRAL PARK NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 22 2026... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1869 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 85 249 PM 104 2011 85 0 81 MINIMUM 72 1202 AM 58 1871 71 1 67 1890 AVERAGE 79 78 1 74 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 1.86 1880 0.15 -0.15 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 3.69 3.17 0.52 3.42 SINCE JUN 1 7.08 7.71 -0.63 5.88 SINCE JAN 1 21.51 26.88 -5.37 24.44 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUN 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING TODAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUN 1 4 15 -11 16 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING TODAY 14 13 1 9 MONTH TO DATE 281 275 6 308 SINCE JUN 1 543 501 42 580 SINCE JAN 1 681 582 99 637 ................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 14 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION W (270) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 24 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION W (260) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 7.2

The current -PNA is mostly a reflection of how strong the ridge is north of Hawaii is. That’s the really strong 500 mb -PDO we are getting in July. The SSTs are mostly a lagging indicator since the 500mb pattern drove the PDO decline last few months. There’s probably a background feedback between the SST and atmosphere which has kept the -PDO so negative during the 2020s. This summer PDO drop has been a common theme during the 2020s with a gradual rise to less negative or neutral by the winter. So our new 2020s seasonal cycle. We can’t really predict the PNA beyond the short term so too early to put out a precise winter PNA forecast. But just to say that the 2023-2024 super El Niño with a -PDO had a less positive winter PNA than 2015-2016 with a strong +PDO DJF 2023-2024…….PNA…..+0.58…..PDO…..-1.34 DJF 2015-2016……..PNA……+1.42…..PDO…..+1.07

Nice change for them following the warmest July 1st through 4th. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Warmest July 1st through 4th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 84.5 0 2 1966-07-04 82.1 0 3 2002-07-04 81.6 0 4 2018-07-04 81.3 0 - 1964-07-04 81.3 0 5 1955-07-04 80.4 0

It will be really interesting see how the Aleutian low develops with the rare July displacement into Alaska for such a strong El Niño. This is the first developing super El Niño with such a low July PNA since 1972. While the sample size is very small, that event featured one of the most unusual winter Aleutian low patterns for such a strong El Niño up to that time. Significantly colder era back then and this El Niño is much more intense. July PNA during developing super El Niños 2023.. +1.15 2015…+0.76 1997….+0.56 1982…+0.97 1972….-0.76

More more comfortable temperatures here than areas to our west.

The -PDO 500 mb index has been more impressive than the SST index. Notice the near record high pressure north of Hawaii. This has displaced the Aleutian low into Alaska with the local cool there and warmth everywhere else in North America. This is a first during the month of July for such a strong El Niño. The Aleutian low is usually closer to East Asia with a developing super El Niño. The seasonal models as recently as around May 1st were going with this super El Niño composite especially on the Pacific side. So another case of seasonal models just defaulting to past El Niño climatology rather than seeing the actual pattern. The run around July 1st once the period was starting to do a little better. But still missed the magnitude of the pattern. July composite strongest El Ninos Verification July 1-20th with the 500 mb -PDO index one of the strongest on record for the period