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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    The cold in the East this past winter was weak sauce compared the the hard winters of the 1970s.
  2. bluewave
    Within the U.S. this is true since we have widespread access to air conditioning. Most of the movement within the U.S has been from cooler locations to warmer ones. Outside this forum most people applaud the much milder winters since they require less heating demand which has become so expensive these days. They will put up with warmer summers since the extra cooling costs are pennies on the dollar compared to what a really cold winter like we would regularly get in the past did to winter heating bills. But the movement to warmer locations within the U.S comes with risks. Water shortages are becoming an issue out West with some smaller communities losing water rights. Wildfires have become a big issue with the land becoming so dry combined with human and natural ignition sources on the rise. Another risk is that over the coming decades is that the Western droughts begin to creep out into the Plains lowering crop yields. Places like France and The UK with much smaller agricultural output have suffered significant crop losses this summer. Plus increasing exposure to extreme flood events across the U.S from rainfall and tropical systems.
  3. bluewave
    Last season was the best this new much warmer climate could do as compared to the 95-96. More warmth was a factor in the NAO reversing so quickly in March as corals studies have found bigger NAO and AO swings from one state to another as the climate has warmed. Much less available cold made last winter the 2nd warmest for the CONUS.
  4. bluewave
    You are talking local patterns and nuances more than the actual strength of the event. The last event in 2023-2024 jumped the planet to a new higher global temperature baseline with a relatively weaker RONI. The Nino ridge was among the strongest on record with the warmest winter in record for the CONUS and much of North America. It’s debatable whether the weaker Aleutian low was a function of RONI or just a symptom of weaker upper lows in general over the years with both La Ninas and El Niños. Notice this past winter with a weak La Niña configuration closest to 1995-1996 the ridge overpowered the pattern with smaller 500 mb lows.
  5. bluewave
    NOAA and other agencies maintain both the ONI and RONI. The paper it’s based on developed it more for marginal events like weak La Ninas and El Niños where the WPAC warm pool was extending more influence than the Nina regions. This was not specifically designed for higher end El Niños or La Ninas.
  6. bluewave
    RONI is a relative metric to other areas of SST warmth. It’s not a realistic gauge of how strong the actual El Niño event is. The planet doesn’t care about relative metrics as the global temperatures are setting records every day now with how extreme this event is becoming.
  7. bluewave
    Urban spots away from the seabreeze made it to 10 days reaching 95°+ again. This has become a common theme in recent years. In the old days we would get cooler summers in between. Data for January 1, 2026 through August 28, 2026 #95°+ days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 10 NJ HARRISON COOP 10 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 10 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 10 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec Most 95° + Days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002 22 8 2 2021 17 0 - 2005 17 9 3 2022 16 0 - 2012 16 21 - 2010 16 30 4 2020 15 0 - 1999 15 4 5 2018 14 0 6 2024 13 0 - 2016 13 0 7 2025 12 0 8 2013 11 0 9 2026 10 126 10 2019 9 0 - 2006 9 4
  8. bluewave
    New OLR record for so early in an El Niño as this becomes the strongest east based event for the date. In recent days, the warming has intensified off the coast of #Ecuador and northern #Perú. It is there that @enfenperu measures and assesses #ElNiñoCostero. From an atmospheric and oceanic perspective, OLR values are at historic lows for this time of year in the central and eastern Pacific. This is evidence of coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere. The depth of the warm waters to the west of #Galapagos (the last point where we can compare all events), the volume of warm water clearly exceeds that of 1997, while those of 2015 and 2023 were much smaller. This sheds light on the robustness of the event in the eastern Pacific.
  9. bluewave
    The wetter climate leading to all these summer flash flood warmings has made it more challenging to sustain extended 90° day counts like in 1988 without clouds or rain interrupting. The most severe droughts in recent times have been focused out West. In the old days droughts were often from the Plains into the East. Plus stronger sea breezes due to summer circulation changes also interrupt the 90° day runs. But overall 90° day counts have been increasing just inland from the sea breeze fronts.
  10. bluewave
    I think what you have been noticing is that the high temperatures during coolest summers each decade back to the 1940s are rising more rapidly than the warmest ones. Notice how we haven’t had any cooler summers after 2010 like we regularly got through 2009. Most of the record heat since 2010 during the summers has occurred in June and July. Maybe the late August into early September record heat of the 1940s into 1950s was a function of the late summer droughts from the Plains into the East.
  11. bluewave
  12. bluewave
  13. bluewave
    While the minimum departures were a little warmer relative to the maxes, the average highs were still warmer than what is normal even using the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals period. I agree that it felt cooler relative to the heat that we had earlier in the summer. This has largely followed the 2020s summer pattern of major heat early on followed by heavy rains.
  14. bluewave
    August was warmer than normal for most of the area using the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals.
  15. bluewave
    Yeah, rapid warming of the SSTs near Japan as the main ridge axis migrated west from the July position north of Hawaii.
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