bluewave

At least you live far enough north where even a -10 or lower season would yield more actual snowfall than an average season from NYC to Philly.

You needed to be further south than Boston to really cash in relative to the means. The NY Metro area had the snowy clippers in December. With the benchmark snowstorm track returning from late January to late February. But overall we got a boost from the cold and higher ratio fluff as the drought that developed in the fall of 2024 persists.

The thing to watch for in July is how much the warm pool near Japan driving the -PDO interacts with the +PMM. The models runs in late June will give us some clues. Could be another overlapping pattern with some Nino-like and Niña-like influences to 500 mb pattern for North America.

The 7th driest June 1st to 16th at Islip. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Driest June 1st to 16th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1967-06-16 T 0 2 1994-06-16 0.15 0 3 2005-06-16 0.23 0 4 1988-06-16 0.27 0 5 1999-06-16 0.31 0 6 2021-06-16 0.36 0 7 2026-06-16 0.38 0 8 1981-06-16 0.64 0 9 1973-06-16 0.67 0 10 2004-06-16 0.68 0

The 500 mb pattern is beginning to look more Nino-like during the second half of June. Finally getting the familiar ridge just west of British Columbia. This is allowing the typical June El Niño trough to form near the Great Lakes.

We are going to need a new classification system for this one. Maybe something like a super east to west basin event to reflect how spread out the record warmth is. Currently getting near to record breaking SSTs for the week of June 10th for developing El Niños using the traditional ONI from 1+2 all the way over to Nino 4. 1997-1998 was the previous record holder for east based events. 2015-2016 was the leader for Nino 3.4 and 4. 2023-2024 tied 2015-2016 in Nino 4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ June 10th 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 07JUN2023 26.1 2.6 28.0 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.5 0.7 10JUN2015 25.5 2.0 27.8 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.8 0.9 11JUN1997 26.1 2.8 27.8 1.1 28.4 0.7 28.9 0.1 At peak strength all-time Nino region warmest SSTs bolded with ties 29NOV2023 24.2 2.1 27.2 2.0 28.7 2.0 30.3 1.7 18NOV2015 23.8 2.0 28.0 2.9 29.8 3.0 30.3 1.7 26NOV1997 25.8 3.7 28.4 3.3 28.9 2.2 29.3 0.7 03DEC1997 26.2 3.9 28.2 3.1 28.8 2.1 29.2 0.6

The expanding drought has enhanced the daily high temperatures. We have been more on a La Niña background pattern through the WPAC warm pool leading to a strong ridge setting up over the East and ongoing national drought. Looks like the record El Niño will began to exert some influence next few weeks with the more standard Great Lakes trough and Western ridge for June El Niño climo. We could briefly see some 90° readings on Thursday. But the next few weeks will be a relaxation for the record heat of the first half of June. We will have to wait until we get near the start of July to see how much the El Niño and marine heatwaves in other regions like the WPAC influence the July pattern.

Some recent studies show that the local cold blob in the North Atlantic is a result of stronger winds from the more persistent +NAOs rather than a slowdown in the AMOC. ‪Anthony Masiello‬ ‪@antmasiello.bsky.social‬ · 7mo Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole. ‪Sang-Ki Lee‬ ‪@sklee621.bsky.social‬ · 7mo The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests: ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t... The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant… ocean2climate.org

Impressive and record breaking Nino 3.4 lead over 2016 and 1997 for June 14th at 29.32C or +1.61 C.

Could be some great radiational cooling tonight into the upper 40s at usual radiational cooling spots.

The first half of June was solidly more La Niña-like with the strong -PNA and record warmth in the East. Pretty impressive that we got a La Niña-like +SOI pattern while the SOI was solidly negative. But the current pattern heading into mid to late June is more Nino-like. So a continuation of the competing or overlapping influences theme.

Not too big of a surprise that the models have less rainfall in the forecast this week than in earlier forecasts. New EPS forecast June 15-22 Old EPS forecast June 15-22

While the CFS missed the summer PDO drop last summer, it’s still forecasting the PDO to remain negative into next January. Mostly due to the stronger ridge and lighter winds east of Japan. The main reason the current PDO is less strongly negative than recent years at this time is the record +PMM. In the past record +PMM patterns often coincided with a robust +PDO before the warm pool emerged east of Japan.

The area experienced a top 5 warmest first 2 weeks of June. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Top 5 Warmest June 1-14 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2005-06-14 72.3 0 2 2008-06-14 71.4 0 3 2026-06-14 70.2 0 4 2021-06-14 69.9 0 5 2007-06-14 68.0 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2005-06-14 72.4 2 2 2008-06-14 72.0 0 3 1984-06-14 71.5 0 4 1999-06-14 71.1 0 5 2026-06-14 71.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1973-06-14 77.2 0 2 1984-06-14 76.8 0 3 2008-06-14 76.3 0 4 2005-06-14 76.1 0 5 2026-06-14 75.9 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1984-06-14 75.4 0 2 2008-06-14 73.8 0 3 2026-06-14 72.8 0 4 2024-06-14 71.5 0 - 2005-06-14 71.5 0 - 1999-06-14 71.5 0 5 1971-06-14 71.4 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2008-06-14 72.0 0 2 1984-06-14 71.8 0 3 1973-06-14 71.5 0 4 1999-06-14 71.4 0 5 2026-06-14 70.6 0

The spring WWB data was just released. This event is interesting in that the WWBs were displaced a little further north and west off the equator than 2015 and 1997. Those events were focused right on the equator. 2023 was driven by the unusual WWB closer to South America. Also note the weaker zonal flow east of Japan with the strong ridging there driving the -PDO. Even though the WWB average was weaker than 2015 and 1997, the upper ocean warming has been faster especially near Nino 3.4. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/