bluewave

You picked a great week to go down there since you missed the rare Arctic outbreak earlier in the month. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxdEmS9gM1M

The lead system out front develops a little faster so we get more confluence to the north this run as it becomes the 50/50 low. So the phase happens a little later and the 2nd system develops further southeast. It’s tough to get an higher end event like some of the OPs were showing yesterday with systems so close together. Also the ridge axis out West is pressing too hard to the east like we have been seeing repeatedly this winter with many coastal lows tracking further south. The hope with this one is that areas that are just under 25” on the season can pick up enough to cross the finish line.

Good to see the EPS AIFS showing the growing storm potential. Not a bad signal from a day 5-6 AI ensemble. Let’s see this hold for another few days so we can pick up our first warning level event in a month.

Thread the needle is slang for getting a perfectly timed phase or storm separation between multiple systems. So I think this forecast qualifies. Would probably just use an ensemble blend at this point since OP runs day 5-6 usually change over time. Hence the you never want to be in the jackpot expression days 5-10. That being said, the storm signal is growing. But we’ll need a perfectly timed storm separation and phasing to get some of the higher end OP solutions. This can be a challenge so I will just go with the more conservative ensemble means until the specific details come into better focus. The highest scoring guidance this winter so far has been the EPS AIFS. But like all the other guidance it’s better under 72-120 hrs. So we still want to see the storm signal hold the closer in we get.

This would be our biggest rabbit out of hat event in years if we get the storm spacing and phasing to work out just right. The general storm signal continues to grow. But it’s tough to lock in details around day 5-6 when so much can change between now and then.

We have had smaller events like the 6z Euro presently shows for the 2nd system. But it’s rare to get a 12”+ like a few of the OP runs have been showing only 2 days after another system. That’s why I am going with an ensemble mean blend right now for the 2nd system. But since nothing is impossible, I am watching to see if the ensemble means move toward some of the more amped solutions in coming runs. Really volatile and delicate set up.

The OPs have been shifting around on the track and timing every 12 hrs. So we should just use an ensemble blend at this point and hold off on the details for a few days. It’s tough to get one really big storm when the systems are only 48hrs apart. But it’s not impossible. We will need some extra thread for this needle.

At this point we should probably stick to the ensembles like the EPS AIFS. Very tricky storm spacing since the systems are so close together. If we ever needed a perfect thread the needle to pull off a really big one this would be it. Looking at the individual OP runs gives new meaning to all over the place.

Florida's citrus industry, reeling from a 90% decline in production since 1997, is severely impacted by citrus greening (HLB) spread by the Asian citrus psyllid . The lack of hard freezes allows these insects to survive year-round, sustaining the bacteria that kills trees. Consequently, nearly 100% of Florida's groves are infected, with researchers testing genetically modified trees and, for now, relying on insecticide use. Key Impacts of Persistent Insect Populations: Constant Infestation: The Asian citrus psyllid, which transmits the Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus bacteria, thrives in warmer, milder winters, leading to year-round feeding on tender new leaf growth. Decimated Production: The inability to kill off the insect population has resulted in the lowest, or near-lowest, orange production in over a century, with 2021-2022 levels dropping to 12.6 million boxes from a peak of 250 million. Management Struggles: Because the psyllids remain active, growers are forced to use extensive chemical controls to mitigate, rather than eradicate, the disease. Research and Mitigation Efforts: Genetically Modified Trees: Researchers are developing trees that produce a protein, often derived from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), which can kill the psyllid at its early stages, limiting the population. CUPS: Citrus Under Protective Screen (CUPS) structures are being used to physically exclude the psyllid, allowing for high-quality production in protected environments. Nutrient Management: While no cure exists, nutrient-rich, systemic treatments are used to help trees live longer, even though they remain infected.

We can still have expanding crop yields on a global basis and also have increasing crop failures influenced by and related to climate change on a regional level. These regional events such as Florida losing 90% of their orange production can have a big impact on the regional economy. The risk in the coming decades is that these regional issues expand globally and eventually cut into the larger global food production. The natural world often gives us early warning signs on a smaller scale prior to large scale dislocations occurring later on. With a warming climate we don’t really know for sure what the global temperature threshold is for widespread crop failures. Florida's citrus industry faces an existential crisis driven by climate-enhanced disasters, causing orange production to plummet over 90% in two decades to its lowest levels in over a century . Key issues include the incurable citrus greening disease (HLB), exacerbated by rising temperatures and extreme weather, alongside devastating hurricanes, droughts, and severe urbanization. Citrus Greening Crisis: A bacterial disease (HLB), spread by the Asian citrus psyllid, has infected nearly all Florida groves, resulting in small, bitter fruit and tree death. Climate Change Amplification: Warmer temperatures have expanded the habitat for the psyllid, while changing weather patterns have brought more intense hurricanes (e.g., Ian, Milton) and severe droughts, which destroy trees already weakened by disease. Production Collapse: Citrus production fell from ~300 million boxes in the early 2000s to roughly 12-20 million in the 2024–2026 seasons. Industry Impact: The 2024-25 season was the least productive in over 100 years. Major growers like Alico Inc. are abandoning citrus, and acreage has dropped significantly,, causing supply chains to shift to imported juice. Mitigation Efforts: Researchers and growers are testing antimicrobial treatments to combat greening, although these are costly and labor-intensive. Climate change is driving severe crop failures across the Middle East, with extreme droughts, rising temperatures, and water scarcity devastating agricultural production. Key staples like wheat and barley are severely affected, with reports indicating nearly 90% of rain-fed crops failed in parts of Iraq in 2022 and major, persistent losses across Syria, Morocco, and Iran. The crisis, exacerbated by desertification, is reducing yields, causing livestock losses of up to 85% in some areas, and forcing mass migration. Key Impacts on Agriculture Widespread Crop Failure: Iraq, Syria, and Jordan are facing critical water shortages, with significant portions of rain-fed crops failing. Production Declines: Morocco and Algeria saw substantial drops in cereal production, with some areas facing up to 80% losses in 2023. Water Scarcity & Drought: The region is experiencing higher temperatures and lower rainfall, accelerating desertification and reducing arable land. Livestock Losses: Drought conditions have decimated grazing lands, with Syrian shepherds losing over 80% of their livestock. Impact on Food Security: The region is facing increased food prices and high levels of hunger, with 118 million people in Africa and the Middle East at risk of climate-related food insecurity by 2030. Regional Specifics Iraq: Almost 90% of rain-fed crops failed in 2022, turning farmland into desert. Syria: Recurring droughts between 2005 and 2010 resulted in 80-85% livestock losses, and recent, continued drought has reduced wheat harvests by 40%. North Africa: Morocco and Algeria reported unprecedented droughts in 2023, causing a 20% drop in Morocco's agricultural output. Iran: A 24% decline in rainfall (2021-2022) caused severe agricultural losses. Drivers of Failure Long-Term Aridification: Climate models show long-term drying trends, making droughts more frequent and severe. Temperature Increases: Regional temperatures are rising, increasing water demand for agriculture. Diminishing Water Sources: Water levels in the Tigris, Euphrates, and Jordan rivers are dropping, reducing water for irrigation. Pest Infestations: Warmer temperatures are helping crop pests thrive, causing further damage. https://www.science.org/content/article/did-climate-change-drive-syrian-uprising From 2007 to 2010, Syria suffered a debilitating drought that brought crop failure and livestock mortality to as much as 60% of the country and displaced up to 1.5 million people. A year later, Syria descended into chaos. A repressive regime and the spread of the 2011 Arab Spring were the overt drivers of the conflict, but some scientists argue that drought played a powerful role. Now, a new study finds that human-induced climate change has increased the likelihood of such a severe drought occurring in the region two- to threefold. The researchers examined a century of observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean and noted a long-term warming trend and decreased winter rainfall in the second half of the 20th century. That drying trend is separate from the climate's natural (not human-induced) variability, they report online today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. When increased greenhouse gas emissions, particularly of carbon dioxide, are included in models, they more than double the likelihood of a severe, 3-year drought in the Fertile Crescent, they found. That agrees with the conclusion of a 2011 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration study that linked increasing incidence of droughts in the Mediterranean region over the last 20 years to human-induced climate change. The link to conflicts is more uncertain, but previous teams have found that fluctuations in climate have been a statistically significant driver of social disturbances over centuries of human history, including war, famine, and migration. Climate change-induced crop failures in Central America's "Dry Corridor" are major drivers of migration, with droughts and hurricanes destroying subsistence farming in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Consecutive years of failed corn and bean harvests, coupled with coffee rust, have caused acute food insecurity. Studies show that drier growing seasons directly correlate with increased migration to the U.S., as families flee poverty and hunger. Impact on Agriculture and Migration The Dry Corridor Crisis: The region, stretching from El Salvador through Honduras and Guatemala, suffers from extreme weather, including severe droughts and, paradoxically, flooding from hurricanes (e.g., Eta and Iota in 2020). Failed Crops: In 2018, up to 70% of subsistence crops were ruined by dry spells. By 2030, unpredictable rainfall and rising temperatures are expected to reduce maize, bean, and rice yields by up to 10-24%. Economic Collapse: Coffee, a primary cash crop, is severely impacted by coffee rust caused by rising temperatures and fluctuating rainfall. Migration Drivers: Food-insecure families are three times more likely to migrate. Many farmers are forced to move when their livelihoods are destroyed, with some studies showing a 70.7% increase in emigration to the US following abnormally dry seasons. Long-Term Outlook Regional Instability: Crop losses and increased poverty could create up to 4 million climate migrants in Mexico and Central America by midcentury. Uninhabitable Conditions: Some areas of the Dry Corridor could become largely uninhabitable within 20 years, forcing massive, sustained migration, notes YouTube video 72VqN4_LUIA. Climate change acts as a "threat multiplier" in the region, amplifying existing challenges like poverty, violence, and weak governance.

This will be a great pattern for the West coming up. Very fast Pacific flow with plenty of snowfall in those areas. Poor storm separation between systems crossing the CONUS. So any coastal storms tracking to our south run a suppression risk with kicker lows coming into the West Coast. The warmer further north systems will tend to cut or hug.

Yeah, the deeper consolidated low storm track just east of the APPS was responsible for a significant portion of their heaviest snowstorms and seasons. This storm track has pretty much been missing for the last 20 years. These days the primary lows tend to track to Cleveland or Buffalo with a weaker secondary going to their east. So they get both dry slots and warmth cutting down their snowfall totals. This is one of the reasons that I have been paying attention to the storm tracks responsible for our seasonal snowfall here. All of our seasons like this one with the coastal areas from EWR to ISP reach 25”+ since the 1990s have featured at least one benchmark NESIS snowstorm with a wide coverage of 10”+ amounts in the Northeast sometimes extending down into the Mid-Atlantic. Numerous seasons since 2018-2019 have been missing this storm track so most of the recent years have featured below average snowfall. Much of the time has featured the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track. Sometimes we get a hugger gradient in the I-78 to I-84 corridor leading to mixing even with the storm to our south. Following the late January benchmark snowstorm, we have reverted back to this common storm track pattern. So we only had one week this season with a dominant Southern Stream capable of producing a widespread 10”+ event near the coast. My question going forward is can we keep some semblance of this benchmark track active at times for the remainder of the 2020s so we can have more seasons at least approaching average? We had a discussion several months back about 50”+ snowfall seasons at EWR, NYC, LGA, and JFK. I expressed concern that it would be a challenge reaching this level due to how Northern stream dominant our storm tracks have become in addition to how warm the winters have become. Since a prerequisite for these 50”+ seasons especially during La Ninas and also El Ninos has been a winter with an average temperature near 32.0°. Well we finally got our first cold winter in over a decade. But the Southern stream was only able to become dominant for a week before the Northern Stream started dominating again. Most of the seasons since the 1990s as cold as this one featured 50”+ like 14-15, 13-14, 10-11 and 09-10. But those seasons allowed the Southern Stream to dominate long enough for widespread 50”+ snows around NYC. My guess is that the 2025-2026 winter could possibly be the only one this coldest for the remainder of the 2020s since cold bas been so scarce since 2015-2016. So its still uncertain whether we can get a near 32° winter to line up with a more relaxed Northern Stream for a 50”+ season. Since these two features have been necessary. Past 8 year stretches with snowfall this low like the late 1980s into early 1990s ended with 1993-1994 going 50”+ and 1995-1996 getting 75”+. So the remainder of the 2020s will be an important to see what the snowfall averages will look like heading into the 2030s.

It was nice to see the return of snowy clippers and a benchmark 10”+ snowstorm. But Central PA is still waiting for the return of the big Miller A tracks east of the APPS. They have only reached average once in the last decade. State College hasn’t been in the top 20 for snowiest seasons for more than 20 years. It has to be very rough for JB since that area has turned into one of the worst snow holes in the East.

The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived.

Climate change won’t be addressed until we acknowledge that it actually exists. Sure it’s s topic of discussion but it’s not taken seriously. Since the agricultural revolution around 10,000 years ago, the world has been in full conquer nature mode. The warming world is just one of the many of the many out of balance with nature themes playing out. So it can act as a force multiplier when combined with other issues from economic to environmental. What needs to happen is that we will have to change our world perspective. Instead of viewing ourselves as separate from nature we will have to come to the understanding that we are part of nature. Once we make that leap, we have a chance to come back into balance with nature and build world systems which are healthy for us and the rest of the natural world.