Jump to content

bluewave

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    36,978

  • Joined

  • Last visited

4 Followers

About bluewave

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    KHVN

Recent Profile Visitors

67,658 profile views
  1. bluewave
    The global pattern since the spring 2023 hasn’t been following any of our past analogs that we look at. The record breaking east based nature of the WWB going into the spring of 2023 was a first. Then the rapid global temperature jump by September 2023 without the traditional lag was new. Nino 1+2 warming in November 2024 followed by the impressive December +PNA didn’t match past La Ninas following such strong El Niños. Plus Nino 1+2 not fully returning to La Niña like it had in the past.
  2. bluewave
    The overall SST pattern and forecast SST pattern looks different from 1997-1998. That event had a much stronger cold pool in the WPAC into Nino 4 and 3.4 regions during the same time in 1998 than the current forecasts for early into mid 2027. Plus the La Ninas following 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 weren’t particularly strong. But we’ll see how things go since it’s still early in the process.
  3. bluewave
    Getting a lower end super El Niño and an all-time record breaker only three years apart is a first for our modern climate era.
  4. bluewave
    It’s certainly possible. These impressive WWBs keep increasing the warm pool and push it further east. The next one coming up will also break records.
  5. bluewave
    Latest Euro update has the Nino 3.4 ONI values peaking around +4. The Nino 1.2 ONI SSTs are now approaching +5. The longer range plumes have Nino 1+2 SSTs remaining elevated into next spring and summer.
  6. bluewave
    Yeah, that has been the seasonal PDO pattern during the 2020s. Steep summer decline followed by rebound back closer to neutral during the winter. Most summers the 500mb driving influence for the -PDO has been the ridge to the east of Japan. This July the ridge north of Hawaii had a much greater influence. More like what we saw during a more Niña-like July 2012. While the seasonal models have been missing this pattern since May, a rebound to a more +PNA and -EPO from August on is what they have been forecasting. So at least this element of the forecast may be in the early stages of developing. But we are still getting very strong ridge amplifications off the East Coast and in the Southwest in early August which appears to be the lingering La Niña -PDO 500 mb pattern influence. If even a small amount of-PDO influence at 500 mb continues into the winter, then it could mean a weaker or displaced Aleutian low complex relative to 1997-1998. The exact locations of the low pressure would help determine where the Nino ridge axis focuses over North America. Any -PDO 500 mb influence could result in higher heights located south or potentially east of 1998 which when the main 500 mb ridge was centered south of Hudson Bay.
  7. bluewave
    At least the PNA is trying to match the usual August El Niño expectations. But the other areas still have the lingering -PDO or La Niña influence. So maybe this is the start of the El Niño having of more 500 mb influence on our pattern.
  8. bluewave
    That’s why this forum is such a great resource. It allows people from all over to share ideas. Having all this information in one central location is very convenient.
  9. bluewave
    Yeah, my area along the CT Shoreline is showing marked improvement compared to how dry last summer was. Much greener now at the open spaces around Tweed airport. It was completely brown last summer. The water levels at my local reservoir are much higher this summer. Very impressive high dew point surge starting tomorrow and perhaps lasting till next Tuesday. Another near record ridge amplification. So continuing opportunities for convection.
  10. bluewave
    The expansion of the boreal forests into the tundra raises another set of issues. https://www.technologynetworks.com/applied-sciences/news/boreal-trees-are-spreading-into-the-arctic-tundra-405025 In an increasingly warmer world, the Arctic tundra is becoming more forestlike. This process, known as borealization, is particularly widespread in Eurasia and in Arctic mountain regions, where the distance to the boreal (northern) forest is shorter. Many species of grasses and shrubs that can live in both the tundra and the forest are gaining ground in the tundra. This is shown by a new large-scale study of 1,100 sampling sites across the entire Arctic biome. Consequences “If this trend continues, it could have a number of consequences. For example, it could accelerate the melting of the permafrost or change the seasonal migration of reindeer. It could also affect the traditional livelihoods of the indigenous peoples of the Arctic, who rely on hunting, reindeer herding, and gathering plants as a part of their subsistence and cultural practice,” says Robert Björk, a researcher on Arctic ecosystems at the University of Gothenburg. When shrubs and other tree-like species expand, they trap more snow in winter and cover the ground in summer. This changes the ground temperature and can accelerate the thawing of the permafrost. As a result, large amounts of carbon that have been frozen for thousands of years could be released, contributing to global warming.
  11. bluewave
    Yeah, that is what I noticed especially reading the all-time record high pressure in Australia with the -SOI and extreme conditions in South America. Perhaps it’s related in some way to the record early stratospheric disruption last November. Following the strong blocking last winter, record low pressure developed north of Alaska during the spring and has continued into the summer. This has been associated with the record ridging and heat across the mid-latitudes. It would be a nice topic for a research paper.
  12. bluewave
    The issue at hand is the expansion of wildfires in the boreal and other forests. Places like Canada have seen both national and regional record fire activity increase due to the warmer and drier conditions. The recent record fire in Ontario produced the record smoke from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. I don’t count that as a positive.
  13. bluewave
    Northern Hemisphere pattern going into August still out of sync with the record breaking El Niño.
  14. bluewave
    While the drought monitor will show improvement when it updates across the area in a few days, there will still be drought especially in the areas which have been the driest during recent years like in NJ. The northern areas like around Bridgeport didn’t have as much of deficit as parts of NJ. So this multiyear drought has always been the strongest in parts of NJ.
  15. bluewave
    If you read my post more clearly that is what I said. Bridgeport is the only major site with such a heavy rainfall departure since June 1st. So for the heaviest totals to be more spread out more sites would need to be like Bridgeport. The other major sites are similar in that they missed the heaviest totals.
×
×
  • Create New...