bluewave

The extreme Arctic warmth during recent summers has been focused more on the Atlantic side. This has left the Pacific sector under relatively better conditions. The circulation shift since 2013 has allowed the September average extent to average in the 4.1 to 4.9 million sq km range.

The next potential record breaking 600 DM ridge amplification will be much further west over the Rockies next week than the recent one over the Upper Midwest. That’s good news for our part of the CONUS. Most summers since 2010 with 100° heat in June and July for our area remained under 100° in August. Hope that recent pattern continues. Still not an El Niño-like pattern but an improvement for the Northeast.

Boston just had their warmest June 1st to July 16th. Significantly warmer than any other developing super El Niño. So an unusually strong mid-latitude or subtropical ridge response for such a strong El Niño. This year was +5.5° above the mean of the previous 5 early summer average. Developing super El Niño June 1st to July 16th average temperatures 2026….73.9° 2023….68.9° 2015…..67.3° 1997…..70.5° 1982….66.9° 1972….68.2°

The weak dipole pattern has resulted in some parts of the Pacific side having their slowest melt since 1994. This pressure reversal since 2013 has allowed the 2012 low extent record to stand to this day. Since 2012 had big Pacific side melt with record dipole pattern. Some of the climate models actually forecast this weaker dipole pattern with the record mid-latitude heatwaves that we have been experiencing. The AMS presentation from 2014 below is worth a viewing when you have some free time. It’s essentially the Northern Hemisphere summer pattern that we have experienced since 2015. Rick Thoman @alaskawx.bsky.social Follow Sea ice is very slowly melting the Chukchi Sea, but only slowly. Ice extent as of July 18 is well above last year and is the highest for the date since 1994(!) in NSIDC data. Sea ice in the Beaufort Sea has also been slow to melt but is now slightly lower than mid-July 2025. #akwx #Arctic #SeaIce ALT 2:01 PM · Jul 19, 2026

The good news is that the next potential 600 DM ridge will be further west than last week.

This was my heaviest rainfall in an hour since moving up to CT. Picked up 3.18 yesterday from around 1:50 to 2:50 PM. The daily total in my area was 3.72.

Pretty wild how we have had elements of the summer 2011 weather pattern against the backdrop of such an extreme developing El Nino. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 106.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 106.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 3 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 4 103.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 103.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 103.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18

Some extreme effects from this record developing El Nino showing up in South America.

2023-2024 wasn’t even close in your area or mine from the seasonal models. What difference does it matter if they are warm or too cold? An incorrect forecast is an incorrect forecast if you are interested in trying to figure out your sensible weather. I understand some posters like yourself enjoy posing forecasts that they would personally like to see. Nothing wrong with that. But wouldn’t you like to actually post a model run that has a chance of being correct rather than what you want it to show? I mostly post longer range ENSO plumes forecasts and general SST forecasts from the seasonal models where they can sometimes have more skill. If I post a temperature or 500 mb forecast, it’s mostly to see where the model might be or has made an error in the past. I also see several posters mention that they are only interested in their own backyard or local area. That’s OK also. But if you want to understand how to find the potential range of outcomes you need to have a broader understanding of how your area is related to the greater patterns in the region, continent, and planet. It just so happens that as the world warms, the weather records count is more heavily skewed toward warmth than cold. So the models just have more opportunities to be wrong about the magnitude of the warmth. And yes they do miss the cold from time to time also. But since cold is less frequent these days, the opportunities are less. In my region we have had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 and only one top 10 coldest. Many most of those top ten warmest months weren’t forecast by the longer range climate models. The one top 10 coldest month during February 2015 wasn’t forecast either. We posted many of the incorrect model forecasts at the time of how the long range weeklies missed the pattern change to colder in February. I remember there were literally dozens of posts about how the weeklies missed the record cold in February from the long range. I can guarantee you that I we had a climate getting colder rather than warmer, I would post maps of the models missing the cold long range. There would probably be some posters that would say why I am I so focused on the models missing the cold and I only am interested in the cold.

Yeah, the August average for the 2020s has been 10 days reaching 90°. We’ll have to see where the main ridge sets up and the what the wettest areas are. One of the warmest June 1st to July 16th periods along the East Coast. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 1 2 8 15 10 2 0 35 2026 2 4 8 6 M M M 20 2025 0 0 10 20 8 1 0 39 2024 0 1 11 14 7 0 0 33 2023 2 1 1 14 5 6 0 29 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31

That wasn’t a good forecast either for what verified. Still much too cool from upper Midwest into the Northeast. You seem to be taking my model criticism personally in some regard by the tone of your responses. It isn’t my intention to put you on the defensive in any way. It would be great if all the seasonal model forecasts were as good as the JMA for your best winter in 2013-2014. https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/data/news/tccnews34.pdf https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php

This will be a rare occasion that a dense smoke plume prevented 100°+ heat and higher departures.

94-95 was close to what the Euro seasonal was forecasting and not what verified. The closest actual 500 mb match was a much warmer nationally and less snowy version of 1995-1996 for DJF. Notice how the ridges overpowered the pattern compared to 1996. It was the first weak La Niña since then with a Bering Sea ridge, Baja SW U.S. ridge, and Greenland block. This has been a common theme regardless of ENSO in recent years. Ridges have been growing stronger and more expansive. The spring pattern quickly flipped to the standard 2020s pattern.

I am wondering if the reason that the standard 2020s summer -PDO/+AMO atmospheric state pattern has dominated the first half of summer rather than an El Niño type is due to the standing wave centered more in the Southern Hemisphere? El Niño has garnered a lot of attention, and this looks to be a large event for the reminder of the year. El Niño is related to cooler, wetter than normal summers in the US while La Niña warmer drier summers. I think the summer of 1988 cemented the impression that La Niñas support continental heat domes, heat and drought for the US. But looking at the temperature pattern across the US this summer so far it seems to be just the pattern that recent summers have settled in to regardless of the phase of ENSO. So far, in my opinion it is hard to observe the impact of El Niño on US weather just yet.

Who said anything about tropical convection? My reply was strictly in regard to how the forecast you posted compared to April 1998.