bluewave

You have to remember that the summer of 1984 had warmer departures in the Northeast than Philly had. So that’s why JFK had a higher ranking relative to Philly. This was the 3rd warmest summer for Philly and 4th warmest in ACY. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Warmest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 79.6 0 2 2022 79.3 0 3 2026 78.8 1 - 2016 78.8 0 4 2024 78.5 0 - 1995 78.5 0 5 2020 78.3 0 - 1994 78.3 0 6 1993 78.2 0 7 2012 78.0 0 - 2011 78.0 0 8 1991 77.9 0 9 2005 77.8 0 Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Warmest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 77.5 0 2 2020 76.9 0 - 2011 76.9 0 3 2018 76.5 0 4 2026 76.3 1 - 2019 76.3 0 5 2024 76.1 0 6 2022 75.8 0 - 2016 75.8 0 - 2005 75.8 0 7 2021 75.6 0 8 2008 75.5 0 9 1984 75.3 0 10 2006 75.2 0 11 1983 75.1 0

More evidence that the ridge is operating independently of ENSO as we have seen this summer regardless of ONI, RONI, MEI, and SOI. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz4647 Marine heatwaves in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) have become increasingly frequent and persistent, yet the mechanisms enabling their multiseasonal duration remain poorly understood. Through observational analyses and climate model experiments, we demonstrate that NWP marine heatwaves are primarily driven by a quasistationary wavenumber 5 circumglobal wave (CGW) pattern that operates independently of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The CGW modulates surface heat fluxes during summer, triggering a self-reinforcing feedback loop where NWP warming intensifies the CGW pattern, amplifying and prolonging heatwaves across extended warm seasons. Additionally, CGW-driven summer warming in the northern North Atlantic persists into winter through oceanic thermal inertia, exciting a great-circle wave pattern that propagates back to the NWP, sustaining heatwaves through cold seasons. This interplay between atmospheric waves and trans-basin interactions enables multiyear marine heatwave events. Analysis of observational data and climate model simulations reveals a strengthening CGW influence in recent decades, indicating more frequent and prolonged NWP marine heatwaves under ongoing global warming.

Occurring during such a strong developing El Niño made this even more extreme relative to what has occurred in the past.

JFK was able to finish this summer with the 4th highest number of 95°+days similar to some of the big 90° summers you mentioned. But stronger sea breezes overall lead to a lower total of 90°+ days than those years. So the higher end heat early on boosted JFK into the top 10 of warmest summers. While the developing super El Nino summer of 2015 was also warm for average temperatures at JFK, it didn’t have the major 95°+ and 100°+ heat this summer had. So the magnitude of the heat this summer was a first for such a high end El Niño event. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug 95°+ days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 10 0 2 1963 8 0 3 2002 7 0 - 1999 7 0 4 2026 6 2 - 2013 6 0 - 1949 6 0 5 2012 5 0 - 1983 5 0 - 1966 5 0 - 1955 5 0 6 2025 4 0 - 2022 4 0 - 2006 4 0 - 1993 4 0 - 1991 4 0 - 1974 4 0 - 1968 4 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Warmest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2022 76.1 0 4 2015 76.0 0 5 2024 75.8 0 - 2011 75.8 0 6 2020 75.7 0 7 1983 75.6 0 8 2026 75.4 2 - 1984 75.4 0 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1991 75.3 0 10 2025 75.2 0 - 1971 75.2 0 - 1949 75.2 0 All-time Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 102.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 102.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 102.0 1963-07-01 through 1963-07-01 4 101.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 101.0 2010-07-04 through 2010-07-04 - 101.0 1993-07-09 through 1993-07-09 - 101.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 101.0 1966-07-02 through 1966-07-02 - 101.0 1957-07-22 through 1957-07-22 - 101.0 1948-08-27 through 1948-08-27 5 100.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 100.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 100.0 2013-07-18 through 2013-07-18 - 100.0 2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07 - 100.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 - 100.0 1983-08-20 through 1983-08-20 - 100.0 1983-07-16 through 1983-07-16 - 100.0 1972-07-23 through 1972-07-23 - 100.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26

The stuck fronts are a function of the increasing summer high pressure over Eastern Canada building down to east of New England at times. This also enhances the dew points with more onshore flow. Also leads to multiple flash flooding events across the area. We used to get more high pressure to our west with offshore flow prior to this decade. Those were the years you highlighted with more 90° days at JFK. These days the higher 90° counts are west of the sea breeze front in NJ.

The most east based super El Niño event on record for this time of year.

We can add August 2026 to the list also. Monthly Data for August 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 12.43 NJ HARRISON COOP 11.74 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.93 NY FRANKLIN SQUARE 1.1 N CoCoRaHS 10.90 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.84 NJ CLARK TWP 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.83 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 10.16

Thread] [1/6] I think we can now confidently say that France is going through the greatest national agricultural disaster since 1945. Without public aid, 30,000 to 35,000 farms could find themselves in bankruptcy, which is nearly 10% of French agricultural holdings. That's monstrous. The exceptional weather conditions we're experiencing today are getting closer to what will become much more frequent, or even ordinary, in the coming decades. 2026 will be in line with the average for 2050. We'll see even hotter and more extreme years than 2026. The realization is therefore becoming hard to avoid: our agricultural model is not sufficiently prepared for the climate change that's coming. It's also the result of a collective political failure: successive governments haven't fully grasped the scale of the upheavals that climate change is already imposing on our agriculture, and will impose tomorrow. It's no longer just about repairing the damage after every drought, heatwave, or poor harvest. We now need to undertake a structural transformation of our agriculture. Here are the most reliable yield losses I could find compared to the average of the last 5 years (only for spring and summer crops). Rate this translation:

I think the recent leveling off of Nino 3.4 SSTs was a result of the record WWBs pushing the warm pool further east than originally forecast. The latest EPS extended now has a warmer Nino 1+2 forecast than the seasonal model on August 5th was indicating by October. So it will be interesting to see what the ECMWF seasonal looks like when it updates on September 5th.

This was the 60th anniversary of the late August 1986 record cold outbreak. Was the last time MPO went below freezing and NYC reached 50° in August. It was followed by the snowiest winter of the 1980s in Central NJ. Data for August 28, 1986 through August 30, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 31 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 34 NJ LONG VALLEY COOP 35 NJ NEWTON COOP 35 NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 36 NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 37 NJ PEMBERTON COOP 37 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 37 NJ BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 38 NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 38 PA COATESVILLE 2 W COOP 39 PA GRATERFORD 1 E COOP 39 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 39 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 39 NJ EWING 3 WNW COOP 39 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 39 NJ TOMS RIVER COOP 39 Data for August 28, 1986 through August 30, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT COCKAPONSET RANGER STA COOP 34 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 35 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 38 NJ CRANFORD COOP 39 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 39 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 39 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 39 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 40 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 41 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 42 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 42 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 42 NY GARNERVILLE COOP 42 NY WESTBURY COOP 42 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 42 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 42 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 43 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 43 NY SCARSDALE COOP 43 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 43 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 44 NY WEST POINT COOP 45 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 45 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 45 CT GROTON COOP 45 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 46 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 46 NY MINEOLA COOP 46 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 46 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 46 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 46 NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 46 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 48 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 48 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 48 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 50 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 50 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 51 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 52 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 53 Snowfall Data for October 1, 1986 through April 30, 1987 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 86.6 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 70.0 PA LONG POND POCONO LAKE COOP 59.6 PA COATESVILLE 2 W COOP 59.3 NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 53.9 NJ LAKEHURST NAS WBAN 53.3 PA DEVAULT 1 W COOP 51.0 PA GLENMOORE COOP 50.0 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 48.1 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 47.3

Very impressive for that area.

The current record breaking +1.81° is well ahead of what any of the models were forecasting for this month.

Interesting post about the SOI with how east based this event is becoming. I am conducting an interesting experiment due to the fact that this El Niño is exceptionally east based weighted, so much so that it has actually caused sea level pressure anomalies to shift slightly eastward. This in my amount of studying and research shows that this might be skewing the traditional Troup SOI index which is ran traditionally from Darwin, Australia to Tahiti in the central Pacific. so the new index still uses the same formula and is ran from Darwin in Australia, but here’s the difference it now runs to Nuku Hiva island, which is almost 700 miles northeast of Tahiti, but in a latitude since it lines up pretty well with Darwin, which gets this a better result. I found that the SOI in my research and studying was around 10 to 15 more into the negative compared to the traditional index. The picture below really tells the difference on August 28. I used the Tahiti to Darwin formula which is a traditional version which is still used by BOM. But today on 29 August, I used a different formula the Darwin to Neku Hiva and found that the -19.85 really matches well with what we’re seeing right now as far as a sea level pressure anomaly dipole. I’m hoping meteorologists that find this post useful will hopefully help to diagnose the strength of this El Niño true its true colors. So if you all can leave a reply below this post and let me know what your thoughts are. That would be absolutely helpful because I believe this will better assess the true strength of this El Niño event and future ENSO events.

There are papers discussing changes to the teleconnections like the NAO and AO as the climate continues to warm. Bigger swings from one state to another. One of the best papers actually came out a year before the biggest swings began in the NAO and AO in 2009-2010. That is more the exception than the rule since most papers only come out after the change had already occurred.

According to most of us on this forum. But the majority of the population movement is to places like the Deep South and Desert Southwest like Phoenix. Just go on YouTube and pull up videos about how people in these areas stay in the AC as much as possible in the warm season. There is a couple on there that used to live in Minnesota that would rather deal with Phoenix summer heat than Upper Midwest winter cold. They adjust their summer routines to only go outdoors early in the mornings for more than a few minutes to avoid the heat. But to each their own. This world provides a wide array of climates to accommodate everyone’s wants and needs.