bluewave

Record breaking WWB for this time of year driving those record Nino 3.4 SSTs.

The core of the 30C+ SSTs will probably shift over closer to MJO 7 and Nino 4 as the current forecast would surpass even 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 in those locations. The Euro has Nino 4 exceeding +2.0 which would be a first if it verifies. The previous Nino 4 record was 30.21C and +1.51 back in November 2023. Perhaps some areas could approach +31.0C. Even Nino 3.4 could get close to +30.0 C like in 2015-2016. The Euro has the warm pool east of Japan continuing. The IOD peaks in October and the SSTs near the Maritime Continent begin to rebound by December. So an historic and extensive area of extreme SSTs from the WPAC into the ENSO regions being forecast. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii 2015 11 23.93 2.28 27.95 2.84 30.13 1.44 2023 11 23.73 2.07 27.20 2.10 30.21 1.51

Very impressive progression of model forecasts over the last several months. Now we are getting past the spring predictability barrier. So this most recent forecast update incorporates the big increase in upper ocean heat and continuing WWBs.

The latest June update from the ECMWF has the ONI plumes Nino 3.4 average around +3.6 and the RONI near +3.0.

The super El Niño warmth has traditionally began later in the summer and persisted into the following summer. So this year we are getting off to an early start with the warmth. Even against the warmest 1991-2020 means, the ensembles have the usual warm spots close to +7 to +10 over the next 10 days. Since normal highs this time of year are only in the upper 70s to around 80° next week.

Very warm early June pattern with 90s next few days then a pullback and more 90s next week. As we saw with the early 100° heat back in May, this is warmer going into at least the early summer than past super El Niño events The extensive nature of the +30C warm pool from the IO over to the PMM region has resulted in competing Niña-like and Nino-like influences. The warmest days are what we typically see with La Niña early in the summer. The recent cooler from the Memorial Day weekend to a few days ago were more Nino-like. But the warmer days were of a higher magnitude than the cooler days were. Some spots set or tied their all-time May monthly maximum temperatures. It could also be the drought feedback across the CONUS is contributing to this unusual early summer warmth for a super El Niño. Along with the -PDO and continuing warm pool east of Japan. Plus these are our first super El Niños only 3 years apart leading to another global baseline temperature jump over such a short period of time.

MJO 7 is the bridge between the super El Niño and the WPAC warm pool. So we get an extended +30C warm pool from the IO over to MJO 7 and Nino 4. It’s even possible that the 30C warm pool could expand closer to Nino 3.4 by later in the fall. Plus the +30C warm pool associated with the record +PMM to the north of Nino 1+2. We began to see MJO 4-6 activity for the first time with a super El Niño in December 2015. As the warm pool expanded by the 2023-2024 super El Niño into the IO, we had record MJO 3-7 activity with a super El Niño. Multiple papers have bee published on this more active MJO from the IO into the WPAC. Previous events had seen the MJO go quiet in these passes during super El Niños through the 1997-1998 event. They even released a paper calling it dual forcing back in 2023-2024 due to how large the warm pool had grown. All this extended oceanic heat that was released jumped the global baseline higher than the models forecast. So getting another baseline temperature jump only 3 years later will be a first for our modern climate.

I use it now along with the climate reanalyzer for composites We can see why many have been noticing that despite the record developing El Niño, the sensible weather is more Niña-like. Record 100° heat a few weeks ago and the 90s reloading in a few days is probably reflecting the westward lean of the Nino forcing. The cooler days in between are probably more of a Nino-like influence with the recent snows in the New England higher elevations.

The current pattern is showing the competing influences. The typical June +PNA El Nino ridge is getting displaced further east than is usual near the Great Lakes. This is the position that we usually see this time of year with a La Niña or -PDO pattern. Probably related to the El Niño forcing shifted west closer to the WPAC +30 C warm pool and the -PDO. This would be a very warm pattern in the winter like we saw in 23-24 with the Nino ridge pressing further east than usual. If the trough can return mid month closer to the Great Lakes, then probably it would reflect the Nino forcing shifting east of the Dateline at that time. So a periodic back and forth between WPAC to Central and EPAC forcing.

Rare 30° June daily temperature range on Long Island with how dry it has been. It was the 4 largest on record for Long Island during June. Big afternoon temperature jump following some spots with shorter periods of record recording a record low. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=139&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=FRG&v=largest&month=jun&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The EPS weeklies actually did a decent job beginning in late October into November seeing the general 500mb pattern. But the Western ridge verified much stronger skewing the total CONUS significantly warmer. This allowed our area to beat the guidance to the colder side for a change. The first colder winter with above average snowfall in 11 years for our region made it really stand out against the sea of warmth since 2015-2016.

CanSIPS was too cold overall across the CONUS during the 2025-2026 winter. It verified as the 2nd warmest winter on record across the CONUS. To be fair none of the models correctly forecast how warm and expansive the Western ridge would become. This allowed the East to turn out colder for a change than the seasonal models such as the CanSIPS were forecasting. But the magnitude and geographic coverage of the cold was limited compared to the expansive and record breaking nature of the warmth.

The last two years have been very dry across much of the CONUS. It will be interesting to see how things go with the developing super El Niño. The current pattern has been alternating between surges of Niña-like warmth and cooler El Niño-like intervals from the spring into early summer so far. But we have still been averaging out warmer than is typical this time of year for such a strong developing El Niño. So not sure if the precipitation will fully shift into a more Nino-like wet pattern or we still hold onto some reflection this Niña-like drought pattern. Ridges have been significantly stronger than usual across much of North America in recent years. So the more expansive high pressure has tended to really dry things out.

The long range forecasts from the CanSIPS have a strong cold bias. Notice how the model had a cold spring especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast from the older forecasts. Didn’t really begin to catch on until the March 1st update. But even then it was too cold. Verification 2nd warmest spring on record for the CONUS Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow Spring (Mar-May) temperature departure from the 1991-2020 normal. Seems warm. ‪Climatologist49‬ ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ · 20h Spring 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S. (2012). A majority of locations had a top 5 warmest spring compared to all springs since 1895 and many places had their warmest. Only a small area of the northern Plains had a cool spring compared to the full period-of-record. 2:07 PM · Jun 1, 2026 Everybody

NYC hasn’t had a month with above normal precipitation since May 2025. So the last 12 months actually made the top 20 driest for June to May. This is impressive given the overall wetter pattern since 2003. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Driest 6-1 through 5-31 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1966-05-31 27.85 0 2 1950-05-31 30.86 0 3 1965-05-31 30.93 0 4 1930-05-31 31.46 0 5 1954-05-31 32.13 0 6 1911-05-31 32.59 0 7 1959-05-31 32.63 0 8 2002-05-31 32.73 0 9 1882-05-31 33.45 0 10 1962-05-31 34.16 0 11 1877-05-31 34.24 0 12 1957-05-31 34.82 0 13 1963-05-31 35.08 0 - 1887-05-31 35.08 0 14 1955-05-31 35.17 0 15 1925-05-31 35.28 0 16 2026-05-31 35.44 0 17 1981-05-31 35.58 0 18 1907-05-31 36.03 0 19 1932-05-31 36.06 0 20 1892-05-31 36.23 0