bluewave

Looks like the OKX forecast zones moved up to 8th place so far for annual flash flood warnings while the PHI zones are in 1st place. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=bar&opt=wfo&station=OKX&state=CT&fema=7&limit=no&c=single&phenomena=FF&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2026&s=jan1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Models really missed how east based an event this has become. Not that big of a surprise since they can’t really can’t forecast the WWBs with that much precision beyond a week or two. This is the reason that Nino 3.4 leveled off in August and Nino 4 declined. It has resulted in the highest Nino 1+2 daily anomaly on record and it’s only early September.

Record number of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for PA this year. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=bar&opt=state&station=DMX&state=PA&fema=7&limit=no&c=svrtor&phenomena=TO&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2026&s=jan1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Even more open water than we have recently seen this time of year near the North Pole. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/arctic/a-worrying-snapshot-satellite-image-shows-large-patches-of-open-water-less-than-40-miles-from-the-north-pole We can see open water at times at the North Pole but I don't think it's ever been this extensive," Stroeve told Live Science in an email.

In terms of 95°+ days it was a pretty high ranking for many locations. Areas away from the sea breeze made it to 35 days of 90° and over 40 days at the Philly stations. But this would have been a cooler summer in the past during developing super El Niños. Most summers following super El Niños had more heat than the one while it was still developing like this year. So we would expect more heat than this one during the next few summers. Since the ridge axis this summer was out near 100W, the strongest heat this summer in our region was from Philly to ACY. We have been getting the stalled fronts with too much convection here to have the kind of heat areas just to our south did. The start of September looks like more of the same with the main heat dome staying to our west. Maybe we can get a day or two next week near 90° but it could stay closer to Philly. Have a very happy birthday coming up. You pick the perfect spot at a higher elevation which is cooler than areas just to your south and east. Summer 2026 heat dome centered near 100W Next 10 days look like more of the same Past developing super El Niño summers have been much cooler with more troughs than ridges

While the heat will be focused to our west, it will be the warmest September 1st to 15th for the CONUS. We’ll have to see if a piece of that heat can come east in mid-September. Models have been waffling back and forth with how far north the 90s come. Generally a continuation of the summer pattern.

SMQ approached their all-time highest September dewpoint yesterday at 77°. CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Newark/Liberty TSTM 77 72 84 E5 29.93R Teterboro TSTM 76 73 91 E7 29.94R Caldwell TSTM 76 75 97 NW9 29.96R FOG Somerville LGT RAIN 79 77 94 N3 29.91R FOG Linden CLOUDY 78 72 80 SE8 29.94R Perth Amboy N/A 75 N/A N/A E6G13 N/A Sussex NOT AVBL Andover N/A 79 73 82 E3 29.96R Trenton MOCLDY 84 75 74 CALM 29.92S HX 92 Millville N/A 84 76 76 CALM 29.93F HX 93 Atlantic City PTCLDY 88 75 65 SW9 29.94S HX 97 Wrightstown MOCLDY 84 75 74 S3 29.92R THUNDER HX 92 Toms River PTCLDY 81 75 82 S3 29.94S

The record finished very close to the ECMWF SEAS5 forecast at the top of the range near +1.64° to +1.65°.

The Franklin Institute in Philly is the 90° day leader across the region this year. Data for January 1, 2026 through September 1, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 43 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 41 DE DOVER COOP 41 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 40 Data for January 1, 2026 through September 1, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 35 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 29 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 28 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 26

The summer 500 mb pattern was as opposite as you can get from a developing super El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere. The 500mb ridges dominated where the troughs were supposed to be. But the Southern Hemisphere response during their winter may give us some clues what to expect here. Notice how the 500mb ridges were stronger than the expected troughs. It was obvious near New Zealand and South America. This would translate into a weaker Aleutian Low and weaker low pressure near the Southeast U.S and or Western Atlantic than is usual for such a strong El Niño. Could mean a warmer more dominant ridge pattern over North America than is typically the case for a super El Niño event. Should this occur during our winter, then it would follow the general pattern regardless of ENSO of the 500mb ridges being more impressive than the troughs since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. https://www.pyreweather.org/map/?variable=height&level=500&region=World&mode=anomaly&months=202606%2C202607%2C202608&fill_mode=shaded&climo_source=r2-monthly

The east based nature went hand in hand with the overpowering STJ flooding North America with mild Pacific air. So even storms tracking south of the I-95 corridor were all rain near the coast. It was one of the rare cases of the STJ pumping the Eastern ridge in January causing it to link up with the Greenland block. Our recent link ups were mostly Northern Stream driven.

Now what does this have to do with the failure and landslide? We don't yet know whether the ice failed first and brought rock down with it, or if the rock failed first and brought down the glacier. But the glacier had likely been changing in response to a warming climate. 8/ Dr. Robert Rohde @RARohde · 28m Melting glaciers on a steep slope will thin and weaken, and become more prone to fracture and collapse. They also produce water that can seep into cracks in the ground and lubricate the ice-rock interface. 9/ Meltwater and higher temperatures can also cause permafrost to thaw. At elevations like this, where annual average temperatures are well below freezing, permafrost often plays a role in sealing cracks and reinforcing the underlying rock. Thus thawing can weaken the rock. 10/ Post-event photos suggest that the ice (and possibly rock) failed close to the top of the existing slope. If much of the rock and ice remained solid until the point of failure, then the top of the slope would likely have the greatest stresses. https://x.com/theiaincameron/status/2093619041105539386 11/ Was the tragedy in Nepal and Tibet due, in part, to climate change? My view is probably yes. The connection remains circumstantial and lacks a smoking gun, but the circumstances certainly make it seem likely. 15/ 10:42 AM · Sep 1, 2026 · All landslides involve an interplay of complex factors Glaciologists and geologists will work to pin down the details, but melting is known to make events like this more likely, and given the circumstances it would be surprising if global warming wasn't a factor here.

I think part of what saved February in 1983 was Nino 1+2 didn’t peak until the summer and wasn’t as extreme as 1997-1998 was during the winter.

The CanSIPS completely missed how east based this event has become and is just repeating the same error in its current forecast. Most other models also showed this but not to the same degree. It also underestimated the record warm pool east of Japan so I would take forecasts in that area with a pinch of salt also.

September getting off to a high dewpoint start.