bluewave

Plenty of easterly flow reducing the maxes is the main reason. It will be interesting to see if we can get a tropical connection established. Since lows often develop underneath the big highs east of New England this time of year.

Even single model forecasts have been missing the magnitudes of the ridges and the warmth underneath. But this is to be expected due to the much lower resolution and nature of long range forecasts beyond 15 days. In our rapidly warming climate there have been many more opportunities for the models to be biased too cold than too warm. So it’s beyond technology of present day weather forecast models to have been able to see the historic 600 dm ridge this week from beyond 5-10 days out.

The C3S model blend had the general temperature spatial pattern correct for the CONUS this summer. But as usual it was too cool especially where the all-time warmth occurred out West. Plus the ridge axis verified further south which has become a reoccurring theme in recent years. Many outlets that do seasonal forecasting use this blend as the basis for their forecasts which you see online. That’s why it’s a useful piece of guidance even if it often misses the magnitude of the warmth under the ridges. https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/products/c3s_seasonal_spatial_mm_2mtm_3m?area=area06&base_time=202605010000&type=ensm&valid_time=202606010000

This record breaking 600 dm ridge is ridiculous for September.

Next week looks closer to average. But it will feel much cooler due to how warm this month has been so far. So something approaching more fall-like weather.

Parts of Fairfield County are at 30” of rain since June 1st. This beat the previous record by 3.5” at BDR. Last year was the 3rd driest over the same period. Very impressive to pull this off without any tropical systems. Just goes to show how much more moisture the record warm atmosphere can hold. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-atmosphere-just-set-a-water-vapor The Atmosphere Just Set a Water Vapor Record More water vapor means more rocket fuel for extreme rain — so this record is not good news Data for June 1, 2026 through September 15, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 30.13 BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 30.11 TRUMBULL 2.6 SSE CoCoRaHS 29.44 STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 29.35 DANBURY COOP 28.33 SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 28.16 FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 27.87 BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 27.67 IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 27.23 NEWTOWN 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 27.11 NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 26.76 NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 25.90 STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 25.90 SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 25.65 BETHEL 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 25.13 Wettest Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT 6-01 to 9-15 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-09-15 27.23 1 2 1971-09-15 23.73 0 3 2011-09-15 21.52 0 4 1992-09-15 21.34 0 5 2006-09-15 21.06 0 6 1972-09-15 20.97 0 7 1952-09-15 20.35 0 8 2021-09-15 18.83 0 9 1982-09-15 18.52 0 10 2000-09-15 18.40 0 Driest Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1964-09-15 4.36 0 2 1995-09-15 4.37 0 3 2025-09-15 5.25 0 4 1993-09-15 5.71 0 5 1948-09-15 6.37 30 6 1966-09-15 6.62 0 7 1957-09-15 6.98 0 8 1970-09-15 7.52 0 9 2005-09-15 7.57 0

Our area has been seeing more and more 80° days in recent years during October and November. We set the all-time October highs in the mid 90s during October 2019. JFK and other stations set records last few years multiple times for latest 80° in the season. The area add more 80° days to the list at the usual warm spots next few days. First/Last 80°Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2022 05-21 (2022) 87 11-07 (2022) 80 169 2024 04-29 (2024) 82 11-01 (2024) 82 185 1950 05-07 (1950) 81 11-01 (1950) 80 177 1971 05-11 (1971) 80 10-29 (1971) 80 170 2023 04-12 (2023) 84 10-28 (2023) 81 198 1963 04-18 (1963) 82 10-21 (1963) 81 185 1949 05-05 (1949) 83 10-21 (1949) 80 168 1969 04-26 (1969) 80 10-20 (1969) 81 176 2016 05-25 (2016) 87 10-19 (2016) 86 146 1975 05-20 (1975) 81 10-15 (1975) 82 147 2021 03-26 (2021) 81 10-14 (2021) 80 201 1990 03-13 (1990) 85 10-14 (1990) 82 214 1962 04-22 (1962) 81 10-12 (1962) 81 172 1960 04-15 (1960) 80 10-11 (1960) 80 178 2017 04-16 (2017) 83 10-10 (2017) 84 176 2011 05-24 (2011) 82 10-10 (2011) 84 138 1997 05-19 (1997) 82 10-10 (1997) 86 143 2007 04-30 (2007) 81 10-09 (2007) 80 161 1961 05-25 (1961) 81 10-09 (1961) 82 136 1959 04-08 (1959) 82 10-09 (1959) 82 183 2018 05-02 (2018) 83 10-07 (2018) 80 157

95° was the highest recorded temperature for MPO. But there are many days with missing readings from that area including 7-3-1911. It’s one of the sites with incomplete data from before the modern airport station was established. Plus we don’t have precise elevation data from where the readings were taken that far back in time. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1901-09-12 to 2026-09-14 1 95.0 1954-07-31 - 95.0 1953-09-02 - 95.0 1911-08-14 - 95.0 1911-07-31 - 95.0 1909-08-08 - 95.0 1908-07-07 2 94.0 2012-07-18 - 94.0 2011-07-22 - 94.0 2011-07-21 - 94.0 2010-07-06 - 94.0 1988-07-08 - 94.0 1988-07-07 - 94.0 1966-07-03 - 94.0 1953-09-03 - 94.0 1949-07-04 - 94.0 1911-07-09 - 94.0 1911-05-22 3 93.0 2025-06-23 - 93.0 1999-07-06 - 93.0 1988-07-16 - 93.0 1988-07-10 - 93.0 1980-07-20 - 93.0 1955-07-22 - 93.0 1954-07-14 - 93.0 1953-07-18 - 93.0 1949-07-28 - 93.0 1948-08-26 - 93.0 1917-07-31 - 93.0 1911-08-10 - 93.0 1911-07-11 Mount Pocono Area, PA Period of record: 1901-09-12 through 2026-09-14DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 7/1 90 in 2026 88 in 2018 88 in 1968+ 7/2 93 in 1911 92 in 2026 90 in 1966 7/3 94 in 1966 92 in 2026 91 in 1949 7/4 94 in 1949 91 in 1955 89 in 1966 7/5 91 in 2010 91 in 1955 90 in 1999 7/6 94 in 2010 93 in 1999 93 in 1911

The cool down for late September continues to look less impressive following the record near 600dm ridge this week. EPS new forecast September 21st-28th Old forecast September 21st-28th

More flash flooding here at Tweed following the event back in late July.

This El Niño continues to feature the ridge axis much further south than usual like we saw during the summer. There have been dual ridges near Hudson Bay and the Southeast U.S this September. Perhaps the Southeast ridge maxing out at a record 600dm for September this week is signaling more of a shift north for late September. The trough along the West Coast and record rains in Southern California have been closer to past El Niño expectations during September. Overpowering 500mb ridges have been a common recent theme regardless of ENSO state.

We’ll see if we can make it to 20 days reaching 80° at the warm spots like Newark by later in the fall which has become more common in recent years.

During the 1970s my worst warm season flooding occurred during Agnes and Belle. The 1980s and 1990s warm season flooding was also mostly tropical storms or hurricanes. We could probably say the same about the 2000s although some non tropical events began to register. But the 2010s and 2020s are more of a mix between tropical systems and weak lows. My most extreme rainfall in Long Beach was he weak low in mid-August 2011 that produced 10” during the morning and closed the barrier island to traffic since the areas around the bridges were flooded.

More and more we are seeing these major warm season flash flooding events occur without defined tropical systems. The warmer atmosphere holds more moisture so tropical systems aren’t required. These days all that is required is a weak low or stalled out front. Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 157 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Stamford 7.45 in 1220 PM 09/13 AWS Fairfield County... Stamford 7.45 in 1220 PM 09/13 AWS Essex County... MONTCLAIR 8.51 in 1210 PM 09/13 CWOP