bluewave

The expansion of the boreal forests into the tundra raises another set of issues. https://www.technologynetworks.com/applied-sciences/news/boreal-trees-are-spreading-into-the-arctic-tundra-405025 In an increasingly warmer world, the Arctic tundra is becoming more forestlike. This process, known as borealization, is particularly widespread in Eurasia and in Arctic mountain regions, where the distance to the boreal (northern) forest is shorter. Many species of grasses and shrubs that can live in both the tundra and the forest are gaining ground in the tundra. This is shown by a new large-scale study of 1,100 sampling sites across the entire Arctic biome. Consequences “If this trend continues, it could have a number of consequences. For example, it could accelerate the melting of the permafrost or change the seasonal migration of reindeer. It could also affect the traditional livelihoods of the indigenous peoples of the Arctic, who rely on hunting, reindeer herding, and gathering plants as a part of their subsistence and cultural practice,” says Robert Björk, a researcher on Arctic ecosystems at the University of Gothenburg. When shrubs and other tree-like species expand, they trap more snow in winter and cover the ground in summer. This changes the ground temperature and can accelerate the thawing of the permafrost. As a result, large amounts of carbon that have been frozen for thousands of years could be released, contributing to global warming.

Yeah, that is what I noticed especially reading the all-time record high pressure in Australia with the -SOI and extreme conditions in South America. Perhaps it’s related in some way to the record early stratospheric disruption last November. Following the strong blocking last winter, record low pressure developed north of Alaska during the spring and has continued into the summer. This has been associated with the record ridging and heat across the mid-latitudes. It would be a nice topic for a research paper.

The issue at hand is the expansion of wildfires in the boreal and other forests. Places like Canada have seen both national and regional record fire activity increase due to the warmer and drier conditions. The recent record fire in Ontario produced the record smoke from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. I don’t count that as a positive.

Northern Hemisphere pattern going into August still out of sync with the record breaking El Niño.

While the drought monitor will show improvement when it updates across the area in a few days, there will still be drought especially in the areas which have been the driest during recent years like in NJ. The northern areas like around Bridgeport didn’t have as much of deficit as parts of NJ. So this multiyear drought has always been the strongest in parts of NJ.

If you read my post more clearly that is what I said. Bridgeport is the only major site with such a heavy rainfall departure since June 1st. So for the heaviest totals to be more spread out more sites would need to be like Bridgeport. The other major sites are similar in that they missed the heaviest totals.

https://thetradeoff.substack.com/p/the-wildfire-climate-change-burn?r=1q3cpv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true The Wildfire-Climate Change Burn Area Paradox Climate Change is making wildfires worse, but global wildfire burn area is declining RYAN KATZ-ROSENE AUG 03, 2026 Consider the following two statements about global wildfires from two high-level scientific reviews on the matter: AND What?! Are wildfires getting worse, or is the situation getting better? What can we expect going forward - more burn area globally as a result of a warming planet, or lessin concert with the present trend? This post wades into this apparent paradox and reasserts the idea that both the present and the future of wildfire burn area is highly linked to anthropogenic climate change. Yes, global burn area is declining, but it’s uneven regionally Globally, burn area from fires is indeed showing a robust declining trend over the last two decades. Some regions, however, have seen a pronounced increase over this period (especially boreal forest ecosystems). The longer term trends, as shown in the figure below, vary substantially from one model and dataset to the next, but generally speaking the story is that northern remote areas (especially boreal forest ecosystems and northern peatlands) are seeing an increase in recent decades, and tropical areas - especially in Africa’s savannah areas - have seen a decrease. Why is this happening? The specifics are complex, but the general explanation can be found in major expansions in agricultural development in Africa, which have helped drive “significant declines [in burn area] in African savannahs… despite significant increases in fire weather, and especially extreme fire weather, in the region.” This is, after all, savannah-grasslands account for more than half of global burn area, and so a significant reduction in that biome has a pronounced effect on the global totals.

Most major sites are just a little above average since June 1st. Bridgeport is the only major station with an uneven big departure. So for the heavy rain to be more even most sites would need to be like Bridgeport.

Typical uneven nature of rainfall from convection. We would probably need a tropical system to have the heaviest totals spread out more evenly. Bridgeport currently has the heaviest totals since June 1st of the major reporting stations. June 1st through August 3rd rainfall NYC….10.28….+0.67 LGA…..9.61……+0.83 EWR….9.74…..+0.27 JFK…..9.31……+1.19 ISP…..10.33……+2.66 BDR….15.84…..+8.36

It sounds like you would enjoy the climate out West which averages under 25” a year of precipitation. Just had some friends get back from San Diego and they really loved it out there. We got close to that here back in the 1960s for a time.

Yeah, they snuck one in during 2004. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Lowest Number 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1889 5 0 2 1920 6 0 - 1907 6 0 - 1904 6 0 - 1902 6 0 3 1996 7 0 - 1984 7 0 - 1960 7 0 - 1906 7 0 4 1927 8 0 - 1917 8 0 - 1875 8 0 5 2004 9 0 - 1969 9 0 - 1905 9 0 - 1877 9 0

Harrison, NJ is on track for their first 9 consecutive years with over 30 days reaching 90°. The last time they had under 10 days was 1996. That year is still the reigning champ for the most snow and least 90° days across the area. Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° Days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 26 151 2025 37 0 2024 41 0 2023 33 0 2022 44 0 2021 38 0 2020 39 0 2019 39 0 2018 47 0 2017 23 0 2016 40 0 2015 32 0 2014 16 0 2013 25 0 2012 35 21 2011 31 30 2010 50 30 2009 15 42 2008 22 19 2007 22 5 2006 30 4 2005 41 9 2004 17 6 2003 14 8 2002 47 8 2001 30 7 2000 15 14 1999 39 4 1998 18 2 1997 20 5 1996 8 17

The Franklin Institute and the airport getting close to 30 days with Harrison not far behind. 90° Day Data for January 1, 2026 through August 3, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 28 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 28 90° Day Data for January 1, 2026 through August 3, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. ESTELL MANOR COOP 27 HARRISON COOP 26

I am starting to wonder if we are seeing some lingering influence from the stratospheric disruption which occurred so much earlier than usual back in late November. The 500 mb low north of Alaska has been near the strongest on record since the spring. Almost like a rebound off the great blocking pattern we had last winter. This pattern has coincided with the record mid-latitude ridging driving the -PDO and +AMO.

It just came out. One of the strongest July CGT patterns on record. This was the opposite of what we have had with past developing super El Niños. The strong ridge north of Hawaii lead to the big warming there and the steep -PDO drop. Seasonal model runs from May completely missed this pattern. So the main question now is what caused such a strong disconnect between the El Niño tropical forcing and the mid-latitude pattern? While most 2020s years have seen the -PDO peak during the summer and move more toward neutral in the winter, even a lingering 10% to 20% atmospheric -PDO state into the winter would be a first for such a strong east based event. My guess is that if this were to have some influence into next winter, it would probably lead to some type of shift in the state of the Aleutian low complex relative to 1997-1998. Not really expecting the seasonal models to be of much help here. While we know that all past super El Niño events have featured warmer winters in the East, the details of where the strongest ridge axis sets up will provide the finer details. A strong +PDO atmospheric east based super event like 1997-1998 was very warm. This event is even stronger and starting out with more of a -PDO atmospheric state than other developing super El Niños. So we’ll have to monitor if the ridge axis remains further south or east than past super El Niños. But even a traditional super El Niño ridge axis south of Hudson Bay is warm on its own. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05825-6