bluewave

They have run the climate models pretty far out in time. The summer forecast through later in the century is for drier to our west and wet for our area. Plus an extensive ridge across North America allowing the Western Ridge to link up with the WAR . We have seen this pattern at times over the last decade like in June 2021 and other months. Though the trough which has been over the Ohio Valley between the WAR and Western Ridge has been stronger than what is indicated in the long range forecast. So it could eventually weaken in coming decades with the expansion of drought into the Plains. We see how it goes.

Yeah, areas further south will naturally see the declines in snowfall first since they were always more marginal to begin with. The further north lake effect zones and higher elevations of the Northeast will still do well since warmer storm tracks for the coast are good for snowfall in those areas. While we can’t completely rule out some major volcanic event which could temporarily cool the climate, those type of events have been pretty rare and aren’t easily predictable.

Newark isn’t the warmest location in NJ since the ASOS is right on the bay and is subject to cooling sea breezes. Several other locations in NJ have had more 90° days since the flow turned more onshore in recent years. There are 4 stations in NJ with more 90° days than Newark over the last 10 years. These sea breezes are why the areas east of the Hudson River in New York don’t have as many 90° days as NJ does. Data for January 1, 2015 through December 31, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 383 HARRISON COOP 376 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 351 CANOE BROOK COOP 348 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 343 Newark Area ThreadEx 343 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 310 ESTELL MANOR COOP 307 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 304 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 304 Several other stations in NJ had an average high within a degree of Newark during the summer of 1993. Data for June 1, 1993 through August 31, 1993 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. WAYNE COOP 90.1 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 88.9 Newark Area ThreadEx 88.9 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 88.1 LITTLE FALLS COOP 88.0 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 88.0

This wasn’t the case for many first order sites such as NYC. So recent snowfall measurements are inflated relative to the way snowfall was measured prior to the 1990s around NYC and to before 1950 in other locations. So boost pre-1950 snowfall totals by 15-20% and the majority of first order sites in the U.S. will show a steady decline since the late 1800s. Several stations already show a long term snowfall decline. So imagine how much steeper a decline we would have if the snowfall was measured as frequently as it is today. Plus places like NYC would use melted down gauge snow equivalents and not actual measurements like in the blizzard of 1888 using a simple 10:1 ratio which is very inaccurate when the 1800s were so cold with much higher ratios. https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history As a hydrometeorological instructor in UCAR’s COMET program and a weather observer for the National Weather Service, I am keenly interested in weather trends. In this case, climate change is an important factor to explore, since we know that the heaviest precipitation events have intensified in many parts of the world (see related story: Torrents and droughts and twisters - oh my!). But when we turn to snowstorms in the Northeast, or elsewhere in the U.S., there is an additional factor at work when comparing modern numbers with historical ones. Quite simply, our measuring techniques have changed, and we are not necessarily comparing apples to apples. In fact, the apparent trend toward bigger snowfalls is at least partially the result of new—and more accurate—ways of measuring snowfall totals. Climate studies carefully select a subset of stations with consistent snow records, or avoid the snowfall variable altogether. Official measurement of snowfall these days uses a flat, usually white, surface called a snowboard (which pre-dates the popular winter sport equipment of the same name). The snowboard depth measurement is done ideally every 6 hours, but not more frequently, and the snow is cleared after each measurement. At the end of the snowfall, all of the measurements are added up for the storm total. NOAA’s cooperative climate observers and thousands of volunteers with the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS), a nationwide observer network, are trained in this method. This practice first became standard at airports starting in the 1950s, but later at other official climate reporting sites, such as Manhattan’s Central Park, where 6-hourly measurements did not become routine until the 1990s. Earlier in our weather history, the standard practice was to record snowfall amounts less frequently, such as every 12 or 24 hours, or even to take just one measurement of depth on the ground at the end of the storm. You might think that one or two measurements per day should add up to pretty much the same as measurements taken every 6 hours during the storm. It’s a logical assumption, but you would be mistaken. Snow on the ground gets compacted as additional snow falls. Therefore, multiple measurements during a storm typically result in a higher total than if snowfall is derived from just one or two measurements per day. That can make quite a significant difference. It turns out that it’s not uncommon for the snow on the ground at the end of a storm to be 15 to 20 percent less than the total that would be derived from multiple snowboard measurements. As the cooperative climate observer for Boulder, Colorado, I examined the 15 biggest snowfalls of the last two decades, all measured at the NOAA campus in Boulder. The sum of the snowboard measurements averaged 17 percent greater than the maximum depth on the ground at the end of the storm. For a 20-inch snowfall, that would be a boost of 3.4 inches—enough to dethrone many close rivals on the top-10 snowstorm list that were not necessarily lesser storms! Another common practice at the cooperative observing stations prior to 1950 did not involve measuring snow at all, but instead took the liquid derived from the snow and applied a 10:1 ratio (every inch of liquid equals ten inches of snow). This is no longer the official practice and has become increasingly less common since 1950. But it too introduces a potential low bias in historic snowfalls because in most parts of the country (and in the recent blizzard in the Northeast) one inch of liquid produces more than 10 inches of snow. This means that many of the storms from the 1980s or earlier would probably appear in the record as bigger storms if the observers had used the currently accepted methodology. Now, for those of you northeasterners with aching backs from shoveling, I am not saying that your recent storm wasn’t big in places like Boston, Portland, or Long Island. But I am saying that some of the past greats—the February Blizzard of 1978, the Knickerbocker storm of January 1922, and the great Blizzard of March 1888—are probably underestimated. So keep in mind when viewing those lists of snowy greats: the older ones are not directly comparable with those in recent decades. It’s not as bad as comparing apples to oranges, but it may be like comparing apples to crabapples. Going forward, we can look for increasingly accurate snow totals. Researchers at NCAR and other organizations are studying new approaches for measuring snow more accurately (see related story: Snowfall, inch by inch). But we can’t apply those techniques to the past. For now, all we can say is that snowfall measurements taken more than about 20 or 30 years ago may be unsuitable for detecting trends – and perhaps snowfall records from the past should not be melting away quite as quickly as it appears. Update • January 29, 2015 | Thanks to thoughtful feedback by several colleagues, this article has been updated. Paragraph 3 now includes a description of how climate studies handle the data inconsistencies. Paragraph 9 was added to describe the pre-1950s practice, no longer in wide use, of recording liquid water content only, and not snow depth. Matt Kelsch is a hydrometeorologist in UCAR's COMET Program. He specializes in weather and climate events involving water, such as floods, droughts, rain, hail, or snow. Kelsch develops and delivers educational materials designed for both domestic and international groups including National Weather Service forecasters, the military, the World Meteorological Organization, university students and faculty, government agencies, and private industry.

Some of the models show the severe drought shifting eastward into the Plains from the 2030s into the 2050s. But it would require the ridge east of New England shifting for us to get westerly winds from the Plains. I suppose a compromise could be possible with both ridges linking up and alternating westerly and southerly flow. But this hasn’t been the case in the last decade with more of a trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and inshore flow. Notice how these days the common summer pattern has been a ridge east of New England and over the West. But from 2010 to 2013 when we had all the 100° heat and westerly flow there was a ridge in the Plains.

Wayne, NJ to the west of Newark actually had a higher average maximum temperature than Newark did with more 90° days. So the heat wasn’t just localized to Newark. But Newark did lead with the 95° days though a few COOPs nearby were close. A local COOP had a higher max at 106° while Newark only made it to 105° that summer. Data for June 1, 1993 through August 31, 1993 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. WAYNE COOP 90.1 Newark Area ThreadEx 88.9 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 88.9 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 88.1 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 88.0 LITTLE FALLS COOP 88.0 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 87.1 LAMBERTVILLE COOP 87.1 PEMBERTON COOP 87.0 BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 86.9 CRANFORD COOP 86.9 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 86.7 LODI COOP 86.7 1993 #90° days in NJ Data for January 1, 1993 through December 31, 1993 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. WAYNE COOP 68 Newark Area ThreadEx 49 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 45 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 44 LAMBERTVILLE COOP 41 TOMS RIVER COOP 40 95° days in NJ Data for January 1, 1993 through December 31, 1993 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Newark Area ThreadEx 25 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 25 WAYNE COOP 22 TOMS RIVER COOP 18 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 16 Maxumum NJ temoersrure in 1993 Data for January 1, 1993 through December 31, 1993 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 106 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 Newark Area ThreadEx 105 TUCKERTON 2 NE COOP 104 TOMS RIVER COOP 104 WAYNE COOP 104

The wild card will be what happens to rainfall to our west. Some of long range models shift the Western Drought into the Plains in the coming years and decades. This could potentially alter the more onshore flow we have been experiencing over the last decade. So in that case we would regularly see 10 or more days reaching 100° over NJ and 5+ on Long Island. But it would require the ridge east of New England shifting to our West. This is highly speculative since the current pattern we are experiencing has been different from that scenario. No matter how much the climate warms, we aren’t going to see many 100° days with onshore flow dominating.

Yeah, this is why other studies and the recent acceleration of warming are pointing toward higher climate sensitivity than previously believed. The 1.5C limit was always an unrealistic target for how fast we continue to burn fossil fuels. Unless something happens to slow this trajectory, we will be well on the way to +3C to +5C of warming. https://cpo.noaa.gov/scientists-find-cloud-feedbacks-amplify-warming-more-than-previously-thought/ Clouds play an important role in how much the Earth warms when greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide increase. However, scientists have struggled to determine whether low-level clouds in the tropics slow down or speed up global warming, creating uncertainty in climate predictions. A new study published in Nature Communications and funded by the Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program adds to the growing evidence that cloud feedback is very likely to amplify warming in the climate system, rather than reduce it. The study found that the impact of clouds in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, two areas where low clouds are especially important, is much stronger than scientists previously thought — 71% higher. It also ruled out the possibility that tropical low clouds could have a cooling effect to offset warming. These findings narrow the uncertainty around one of the biggest unknowns in climate science and enable more accurate predictions of how much warming we might expect. This work was possible thanks to new techniques that balanced conflicting data from different regions, giving clearer answers. The results show that Earth’s climate is likely more sensitive to rising carbon dioxide levels than many models have suggested. A stronger positive cloud feedback means faster and higher levels of warming. It also highlights the need to improve how climate models represent clouds, especially in tropical areas, to prepare better for the challenges of a changing climate. The investigators will extend the value of this study by developing and delivering a piece of software to NOAA that will diagnose issues with low cloud feedback in new versions of NOAA’s modeling systems. This will lead to improvements in NOAA models’ ability to capture appropriate levels of cloud feedback, and improvements in processes that lead to weather and climate prediction skill. In the early 2000s, climate scientists could not say with confidence whether clouds would mitigate or amplify climate change. Some hypothesized that clouds might work to oppose a significant portion of human-caused warming by reflecting more incoming solar energy back out to space, while others hypothesized that particular changes in clouds might magnify warming by trapping more energy in the atmosphere. In 2001, NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics climate model was one of only three that simulated the type of significant positive cloud feedback we now know is likely happening. The MAPP and Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) programs are advancing cloud representation in climate models through ongoing funded projects. By studying tropical cloud processes and precipitation and improving how they are represented across scales, these efforts are strengthening predictions and providing a clearer picture of our climate future. Read the study »

It’s going to be a challenge for places like Newark to ever see 20 consecutive 90° days again with how wet the climate has become with increased summer onshore flow. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2025-05-14 1 20 1988-07-29 through 1988-08-17 2 14 2010-07-16 through 2010-07-29 3 12 1995-07-24 through 1995-08-04 - 12 1972-07-14 through 1972-07-25 4 11 2012-06-28 through 2012-07-08 - 11 1973-08-26 through 1973-09-05 - 11 1953-08-24 through 1953-09-03 5 10 2022-08-02 through 2022-08-11 - 10 2006-07-27 through 2006-08-05 - 10 2002-08-10 through 2002-08-19 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1988-07-29 95 0.00 1988-07-30 99 0.00 1988-07-31 90 T 1988-08-01 91 0.00 1988-08-02 94 0.00 1988-08-03 93 0.00 1988-08-04 92 0.00 1988-08-05 90 T 1988-08-06 90 0.00 1988-08-07 93 T 1988-08-08 90 0.00 1988-08-09 92 0.00 1988-08-10 93 0.01 1988-08-11 97 0.00 1988-08-12 95 0.00 1988-08-13 98 0.00 1988-08-14 98 0.00 1988-08-15 99 0.00 1988-08-16 92 0.00 1988-08-17 90 0.05

Back in the drier climate era days we would often go more than 4 days with no rain. This is why the longest heatwaves occurred in those days. But late May has especially seen more blocking and cutoffs last 10 years or so. This makes it prime time for cutoff lows and frequent rainy intervals. It’s the primary reason we still haven’t seen widespread 100° heat this time of year yet. In a drier climate with less blocking the May 1996 record heat would have easily been surpassed. Monthly Data for May 1996 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NY MINEOLA 1 NE COOP 99 NY OCEANSIDE COOP 98 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 98 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 98 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 97 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 97 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 97 NY MINEOLA COOP 97 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 97 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 97 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 97 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 96 NJ CRANFORD COOP 96 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 96 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 96 NJ HARRISON COOP 96 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 96

When I mentioned to Philly to Boston I was highlighting coastal areas closer to the I-95 corridor. These areas are naturally seeing a decline in snowfall first. Higher elevations in the interior Northeast have more leeway since they can still do well with a warmer more northward shifted storm track.

Go back to around 2013 and you will see that most years have at least some measurable rainfall on at least one of the Friday to Monday extended Memorial Day weekend days.

I don’t do extended snowfall forecasts for your area north of Boston. My statement on the declining snowfall is based on the region around NYC. But if you run the snowfall data back to the late 1800s, it shows a steady decline with ups and downs along the way. Plus if they measured snowfall the same way as they did before the 1990s, it would show higher totals prior to that and a steeper decline. Since snowfall in the old days was under measured by 15-20% due to less frequent measurements. NYC is moving into an era when the seasonal average snowfall will dip under 20” on a long term basis once we get into the coming decades. The last 7 years are a preview of the future. But we could see a bounce off the bottom of recent years before resuming the decline in the 2030s.

Hopefully, the cutoff for the extended Memorial Day weekend is more frontloaded to Friday into Saturday and moves to our NE on Monday.

Since this -PDO cycle only started in 2019 after the 4 to 5 year +PDO and super El Niño, not sure how you can make that statement after only about 7 years. But I suppose you could make the argument that in a new regime of shorter PDO cycling since 1999, a warming WPAC could load the dice for the -PDO phases lasting longer than the +PDO phases. Still have to wait and see if the recent Nino 1+2 warming isn’t the beginning of a shift back to more +PDO in a few years. But with all the warming since the 2014-2015 to 2017-2018 +PDO period, my guess is that it would be a warmer and less snowy version of those years.