bluewave

We could definitely tap a small piece of the residual tropical moisture plume feeding north along the stalled front on Friday which lead to the historic Florida rainfall and flooding.

You definitely live in a really beautiful microclimate which many people never get to experience outside vacations. Any tools that aid in long range forecasting are a positive in my book. Reactions to specific weather outcomes are a very subjective experience. While many people on this forum like cold winters, most of the population enjoy low heating bills and milder temperatures.

The big warm signal for this winter was beginning to be outlined as early as last spring when we were getting the first hints at how historic this super El Niño was going to become. I agree that over shorter one week to 10 day periods throughout an entire 3 month winter season there can be some variation from the seasonal primary temperature departure pattern. But the one shorter term temperature pattern that has become very reliable has been the warm up from around December 17th to 25th which has occurred every year since 2011 from Philly to NYC. Many times the longer term models from early in December miss this warm up. So the closer to forecast time we get the models correct warmer. Max Temp Time Series 12-17 to 12-25 Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-12-25 61 0 2024-12-25 63 0 2023-12-25 62 0 2022-12-25 59 0 2021-12-25 60 0 2020-12-25 65 0 2019-12-25 52 0 2018-12-25 65 0 2017-12-25 61 0 2016-12-25 60 0 2015-12-25 71 0 2014-12-25 65 0 2013-12-25 68 0 2012-12-25 60 0 2011-12-25 63 0 Max Temp 12-17 to 12-25 Time Series Summary for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-12-25 58 0 2024-12-25 59 0 2023-12-25 62 0 2022-12-25 58 0 2021-12-25 60 0 2020-12-25 61 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 55 0 2016-12-25 58 0 2015-12-25 72 0 2014-12-25 62 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 56 0 2011-12-25 62 0 Max Temp 12-17 to 12-25 Time Series Summary for Newark Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-12-25 59 0 2024-12-25 61 0 2023-12-25 64 0 2022-12-25 58 0 2021-12-25 62 0 2020-12-25 62 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 57 0 2016-12-25 59 0 2015-12-25 71 0 2014-12-25 64 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 57 0 2011-12-25 62 0

Any cooler conditions in the Southeast will mostly be a function of all the clouds and rain keeping the high temperatures down. The eastward displaced Pacific vortex and the frequent jet extensions will flood North America with mild Pacific air. Those climatology packages beyond 15 days are defaulting to general El Niño climatology. This event is much more extreme than general El Niño climatology.

Those long range runs beyond 15 days will correct much much warmer the closer in time we get to the forecast period like they did for this week. New run November 2-9 Old run

Historic Florida flooding for what is normally a drier month there. Long range seasonal models did have the wet signal there. But the actual magnitude greatly exceeded the general long range forecasts.

Record November CONUS warmth this month with this very amplified super El Niño pattern. Warmth is shifting into the Northeast this week with numerous +10 to +15 departures next 5 days. Then a pullback of the warmth to the Upper Midwest before surging back east again mid-November. Areas that haven’t had their first freeze yet are going to have a very late first freeze. Spots that did have their first freeze will experience a very late first hard freeze.

Any location can always get a bounce back type year against a long term downward trend but it doesn’t represent a long term change in the warming climate and decline in snowfall. NYC and surrounding sites have experienced a long term snowfall decline in winter and March as the climate has been getting warmer. But it doesn’t rule out the possibility of a snowier bounce back March or two some March in the future. Surrounding stations like Newark have also been in the same boat. Newark has seen a 7° increase in March temperatures since the mid-1800s. Getting 6 Marches in a row near 45° has resulted in the 2020s becoming the lowest March snowfall decade around the NYC Metro area.

Excellent ECMWF global temperature forecast for October. MONTH MEDIAN 90% RANGE SEAS5 DIRECT DRIVING Oct 2026 1.72 1.56-1.88 1.75

Non-linear climate shifts often present with small sample sizes due to their abrupt nature. Non-linear climate dynamics combined with small sample sizes create severe statistical and predictive challenges because the Earth's system can cross critical thresholds or experience abrupt state shifts that short or sparse historical records fail to capture. [1, 2, 3] Climate change alters snowfall in a non-linear fashion, meaning snow loss remains gradual up to a critical temperature threshold, after which it drops off sharply

I get it that they are struggling to measure how ENSO is changing as the climate warms. But the extreme nature of the flooding from the Southwest to the Southeast this fall would better be reflected by the higher values. Plus the warmth is greater than we have ever experienced for so early in a super El Niño event. The east based forcing has also been much stronger than we have ever seen so early in an event.

The extreme east based warm pool and forcing is better reflected by the actual ONI values. Nino 1+2 continues to set records along with the other regions. Now up to +5.4 on the week. The BOM RONI is at +6.04 in its Nino 2 region. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ 28OCT2026 26.7 5.4 29.5 4.4 30.2 3.4 30.1 1.4

Was like someone flipped a switch in March 2020. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2026 T T 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3.5 3.5 2009 8.3 8.3 2008 T T 2007 6.0 6.0 2006 1.3 1.3 2005 6.9 6.9 2004 4.8 4.8 2003 3.5 3.5 2002 T T 2001 3.8 3.8 2000 0.4 0.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 5.7 5.7 1999 4.5 4.5 1998 5.0 5.0 1997 1.7 1.7 1996 13.2 13.2 1995 T T 1994 8.1 8.1 1993 11.9 11.9 1992 9.4 9.4 1991 0.2 0.2 1990 3.1 3.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3.0 3.0 1989 2.5 2.5 1988 T T 1987 1.9 1.9 1986 T T 1985 0.2 0.2 1984 11.9 11.9 1983 T T 1982 0.7 0.7 1981 8.6 8.6 1980 4.6 4.6

Very impressive jet extension across the entire North Pacific showing up in the ensembles around mid-November.