bluewave

RONI is not meant to be used for the absolute intensity of this event. It’s more about gradients and storm tracks. With something this historic, it’s the absolute temperatures and water vapor increase that matter which is better reflected by ONI.

Luckily, my power was only out for 24 hrs. Took down a bunch of trees. But borderline TS to Cat 1 systems don’t get retired unless they cause historic flooding like Agnes in 1972.

The cooldown next week following this warmup will possibly deliver the first freeze of the season for the colder spots across the region that radiate well.

First frost of the season here on the cartops with a low of 36°. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khvn

The names only get retired if they cause significant enough effects. While the first Isaias gave me my strongest wind gusts to 78 mph back in SW Suffolk, it didn’t produce wide enough damage as a weaker hurricane and then tropical storm to have the name retired. Many big majors get retired along with weaker systems which produce historic rainfall.

This may be the first time we had effects from the same named hurricane twice in the same decade. We had Hurricane Isaias for the first time in 2020. Now it looks like we’ll see the remnants of Isais later Sunday into Monday. If we can get some measurable rain by Sunday evening, it will mean most weekends since early July had rain. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isaias_(2020)

Starting to see +12C subsurface anomalies as Nino 3.4 reaches +3.4 for the first time.

Even with these CFS WWB forecasts being too weak leading to unrealistically low Nino 1+2 values, it increases the WWBs again over the winter and continues into next summer.

The comparison was to a low tracking in directly from the east over NYC like last week which would be further north than December 1992 that came into the Delmarva.

I was on Long Island for the 1992 Nor’easter. The biggest impact was the record coastal flooding up to that time and hurricane force easterly gusts. We got 3-5” of rain followed by some light snows when the low departed. That event was further south near the Delmarva than the low which tracked right into NJ in September from the east. Data for December 9, 1992 through December 13, 1992 Total precipitation Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 4.74 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 4.68 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 4.40 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 3.69 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 3.66 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 3.60 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 3.59 NY PLEASANTVILLE COOP 3.57 NY MINEOLA COOP 3.54 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 3.52 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3.45 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 3.40 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 3.30 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3.25 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 3.22 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 3.19

December 1992 was a big rainstorm in Southern New England shoreline areas and NYC Metro. I guess our definitions of the geographic regions are a little different. To me anything north of the Hartford to Providence line is Central New England. That event came into the Delmarva. So a retrograding system right into NJ would probably be mostly rain in the same regions which got rain in December 1992. Plus during the 1997-1998 winter the ridge axis was further north along with the 540 thickness line than 92-93 or the 91-92 winter. The January 1992 nor’easter which got pulled in from the east was also a big rainstorm for the NYC Metro area.

During the winter the antecedent warmth with a seasonally stronger STJ than the fall would prevent much snow from getting south of Central and Northern New England with a loop in from the East. We saw tracks like this but even further south during the January 1992 Nor’easter which got pulled in from the east and also. Plus December 1992 came in closer to the Delmarva and you had to be pretty far north to cash in on that one compared to NYC Metro.

Only for Central to Northern New England since it tracked directly into the Jersey shore.

Very impressive Southeast ridge in the means since March. So just a continuation of the ongoing pattern. Very 1997-1998 type storm track forecast with the tropical low lifting north from the Gulf through the East into early next week. Sometimes these October storm tracks are an early indication of what we get during the winter. But this is a much stronger east based event than that one was.

Sometimes these October storm tracks can give us an early indication of what we will see for the winter. The OP Euro and the AIFS track the system from the Gulf up through our area by later Sunday into Monday. This was one of the active storm tracks during the 1997-1998 super El Nino. This is also an east based event but much stronger than that one was.