bluewave

Yeah, State College was a great spot from the 60s into the early 00s with all those deep Miller As tracking just west or east of the Delaware Valley. Now the lows track up through the Great Lakes last 7 seasons or redevelop and hug the I-78 to I-84 corridor and dry slot Central PA like you mentioned. It’s been 20 years for them with declining snowfall. They missed out during the epic 2010 to 2018 benchmark era with the storm tracks too far east for them. Now the storm tracks are too far west for them. So an extended period with well below average snows.

I use the term luck in a less formal sense. Since the Pacific has been so overpowering over the last 7 seasons. Agree with you that if we actually do get a benchmark storm that it will be because of a change at least briefly in the pattern and not luck. While snowfall forecasts are challenging, we know what to expect if we continue with the Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream over the last 7 years. So I am hoping that we can at least change up the storm track briefly for a finish closer to average snowfall this year.

Very nice write up and good luck with the forecast. My only comment is with the NYC snowfall forecast. NYC hasn’t had close to normal in the 19”-29” snowfall range without at least one benchmark KU event since the 1990s. So if the dominant Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Storm track of the last 7 years continues, then 19” may be closer to the top end of the range. But if we can get lucky and sneak in a benchmark event, then 25” to 29” would be possible.

The snowbelt areas to the east of Cleveland have been holding their own with the shift in the storm tracks. Places like Erie, PA are positioned better for all the storm tracks through the Great Lakes. It’s areas to the east like State College that are on the warmer side of the storm tracks now which have seen a steep decline.

In 2017 and 2019 we were closer to the core of the cold. So NYC was able to have record lows in the 23° to 25° range. That’s why I mentioned yesterday that this is similar to recent cold shots with the coldest departures and record lows going to our south like last January. New York-Central Park Area, NYPeriod of record: 1869-01-01 through 2025-11-09DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 11/10 25 in 2017 27 in 1914 29 in 2004+ 11/11 24 in 2017 28 in 1933 28 in 1926+ 11/12 25 in 2019 26 in 1926 27 in 1920 11/13 23 in 2019 24 in 1986 25 in 1920

Models have a -4 sigma upper low crossing the area tomorrow with record low 500 mb temperatures just to our south. There could even be a few wet snowflakes in mix getting close to the coast. Unusually deep mixing to 700mb gives the potential for momentum transfer of higher winds to surface. So don’t be surprised if we see some 40-50 mph gusts. NYC will probably get very close to its first freeze of the season around 32-33°.

I will take it as small sign of progress if we can actually get a transfer to go south of Long Island for a change without the storm getting suppressed in later runs.

Parts of the area were around 70° a few times in the last few days which were well above guidance from the forecasts 6-10 days ago which were too cold. I think what you are referencing about this week into mid-month is that we had a recent short term strong wave break leading to a strong block. So this drove a much stronger TPV into the Great Lakes with a colder forecast for the coming week. Once in a while we do get a colder period than originally forecast. But I am accurately describing that the core of the cold will miss the area again. Has nothing to do with lack of enjoyment or agendas. I don’t think that you have a warm agenda after making this post around a week ago. I am cutting you some slack since it was before the models started showing such a strong blocking pattern. So maybe you can find it in your heart to go easy on my description of the mid-month period before the recent model shift to colder with the stronger blocking. This is your post looks like a solidly above normal month ahead. Not by a lot, but it won’t be close to normal. New normal old normal whatever. if I still have my outdoor shower going at the beginning of November with no end date in sight, that’s a warm intro to winter

This is one of the more impressive lake effect events on Lake Michigan this time of year as a lobe of the TPV tracks behind the synoptic low just east of the Great Lakes.

It was still too brief a phase 8 last January to significantly weaken the Pacific Jet. So the kicker shortwaves coming into Western North America prevented the record Gulf Coast snowstorm from coming up the coast. Our last impressive MJO 8 was back in January 2022 allowing the Pacific Jet to relax and the great snowstorms to affect ACY-ISP-BOS.

Yeah, the Great Lakes have been getting the heaviest snows with all these cutter and hugger storm tracks in recent years.

The GEFS last December was hinting at a big push into 7. But the MJO slowed in the warmer 5-6 phases mid to late December with the +EPO warm up. We did briefly get a MJO 8 last January but it was more pronounced in 1-3. Then the MJO missed phase 8 last February when we had the first 5 sigma Greenland block link up with the Southeast ridge.

Looks like a version of last January when the coldest departures went to our south also. But this time we have more warmth in the West. Plus the surface high will crest over the south while we get the flow off the still very warm Great Lakes.

We’ll see if this can trigger a strong enough wave reflection to lead to more of a -WPO -EPO from late November into early December. Then the main question is will it be able to weaken the Pacific Jet enough. Last December we saw how the stronger -EPO didn’t really weaken the jet enough so we got a mid to late December +EPO reversal. Remember none of the models got this +EPO reversal later in December from early in December. So we’ll just have to monitor the Pacific Jet once we actually get into December. Plus we have seen warm ups every December since 2011 from the 17th to 25th that most of the long range models missed. Even during colder starts to the month.

Not really seeing much deviation in this dominant northern stream track through the lakes or the hugger tracks in the near term. Colder air rushes in behind the storm in a few days. Then the following week we warm back up closer to seasonal levels or even above. EPS Nov 10 to 17 EPS Nov 17 to 24