bluewave

This is the first time in 60+ years on Long Island that a 6” snowpack has lasted 10 days or more with only 28.6” of seasonal snowfall so far. Previous years had 46” to 68” inches of snow. So this is the best extended 6” snowcover for a winter with only average snowfall. Number of Consecutive Days Snow Depth >= 6 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 37 0 2015-01-27 through 2015-03-04 2 18 0 2026-01-26 through 2026-02-12 3 16 0 2005-01-23 through 2005-02-07 4 14 0 1978-02-07 through 1978-02-20 5 11 0 2013-02-09 through 2013-02-19 - 11 0 2011-01-27 through 2011-02-06 Seasonal snowfall for above years 2015…63.7” 2026…28.6” 2005…58.8” 1978….68.0” 2013…46.9” 2011….55.3”

This has been our coolest November to mid-February in over a decade. But since the Northern stream and Western ridge was so dominant, we couldn’t achieve the snowfall totals of 1996, 2014, 1994, 2003, and 2011. Some lingering influence from the longer term lower snowfall pattern since 2018-2019 even though this winter was much colder. But I am very happy we got our big benchmark snowstorm which brought many close to the long term 25 to 30 average with the more active STJ for a week in late January. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Coolest 11-1 to 2-12 periods since 1991 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1996-02-12 33.7 0 2 2014-02-12 35.1 0 3 1994-02-12 35.3 0 4 2026-02-12 35.4 0 - 2003-02-12 35.4 0 5 2011-02-12 35.8 0 6 2001-02-12 35.9 0 7 2015-02-12 36.1 0 8 2004-02-12 36.2 0 9 2009-02-12 36.8 0 10 2018-02-12 36.9 0

Definitely a more traditional Nina-like pattern coming up for the rest of February. But it’s really interesting that we see a piece of the cooler Northeast relative to other areas which has been in place since November continuing. So more of a close to average temperature pattern here with the warmest temperatures missing our area. Longer term the models are forecasting a transition to El Nino. Nina to Nino summer transitions typically haven’t been very warm here like we saw during years like 2023, 2009, 1997 and 1986. But the last strong drought La Nina to El Nino in 2002 was very warm. That year was a much warmer winter than we just had. So we can see competing influences this year with extreme drought across much of the CONUS and a lingering cold pool near the Northeast. It will be interesting to see if the Northeast can hold onto the local cooler readings relative to other areas or the drought feedback ridge to our west eventually builds into the Northeast with the heat.

You don’t really have even the most basic understanding of how complex worldwide systems work. We currently have a two-tiered economic system around the world. This means that the areas with sufficient wealth can insulate themselves from environmental issues including issues stemming from the warming climate. So the worldwide crop yields increasing is more a function of the expansion of living standards for people in the more prosperous societies. So localized crop failures in the Middle East and Central America contributing mass migrations cause issues for people on the lower rung of the economic ladder. These displaced peoples move to the more prosperous societies to the north with increasing crop yields where they are absorbed. But they directly compete with the lower people in these societies who are already facing economic challenges. This leads to political instability in those societies. Same story for rising insurance rates in the U.S. from extreme weather disasters. The people with more economic means just shrug off these increases. But an increasing segment of society living paycheck to paycheck are forced to move or sell their house and rent. This is the situation we find ourselves in today across the planet with what is being described as a K shaped economy. So all the headline numbers we see are a function of a smaller share doing relatively well. You saying that a few crop failures in an otherwise increasing crop yields world is essentially a big fat nothing burger is a classic let them eat cake response. Just like the people who say that increasing property insurance rates isn’t a big deal are missing an important process. We live in a very delicately balanced global economic society. If a growing number of people don’t feel like society isn’t working for them, then the current global structure is on borrowed time since it’s unsustainable. Climate and environmental degradation are contributing factors to many other instabilities in this economic system. There are also plenty others leading to the current global state. So we can list a whole series of other issues across the board. But your attitude exemplifies the casual disregard for important underlying issues which will probably come to a head in coming years. I am ultimately very hopeful long term. My guess is that we will eventually achieve a more in balanced global society with others and the natural world. But the road to that future state will probably be bumpy. But in the end I think local segments of like minded people will build a more bottom up society that works for everyone rather than the current top down model.

Several of the biggest human migration stories since 2010 have a MMGW component as a contributing factor. A major trigger for the refugee crisis and migration into Europe was a crop failure caused by MMGW in the Middle East earlier in the last decade. Same for the wave of migration north from Central America into the U.S. following MMGW crop failures over the last decade. When those stressors combined with the background issues of extreme poverty they tipped the balance to mass migrations to escape those conditions. Within the U.S. some parts of the country with extreme hurricane activity over the last decade due to record SSTs leading to the record rapid intensification of hurricanes have seen a steep increase in homeowners insurance. So many have gotten priced out of those markets. Same across the Western U.S. where drought and wildfire activity have made some spots uninsurable leading to people exiting these regions. The good news is that we have sophisticated weather warning systems here to help save lives. But less developed parts of the world with increasing extremes haven’t been as lucky since they lack the warning systems we have. Parts of the Southeast U.S. have experienced rapid sea level rise since the 1990s combined with subsidence and groundwater pumping leading to saltwater intrusion. So several new high rises have been sinking and older structures have been having issues salt water intrusion into their foundations. We hope that the fragile WAIS will take hundreds of years to slowly melt. But they recently discovered that in past ice ages there were rapid melt episodes where significant sea level rise occurred in just a few decades. Sea level rise following past ice ages wasn’t that big of a deal since the world wasn’t covered by coastal megacities like we have today. So an unexpected rapid sea level rise in any future decades due to our incomplete understanding of ice sheet dynamics would trigger a wave of migrations which would make the migrations since 2010 look tiny in comparison. Plus nearly all of the time when we pass critical climate thresholds we don’t know we have crossed into a new regime until it has already occurred. While the earth is a very resilient system, we really don’t understand how making these rapid alterations to the climate system will fully play out. Ecosystems are delicately balanced and what seems like a small change scan have a a much bigger impact than we understand. This whole climate experiment we have been running reminds me a bit of the great song by Pink Floyd.

I think it’s more a function of human nature and our evolution that the warming planet doesn’t really get as much attention as other issues do. We evolved during ice ages that were tremendously challenging to just survive without the modern amenities we have today. So historically cold has been more of a concern than it being too warm. Most of the migration within the United States is from colder locations to the warmer sunbelt locations from Arizona to Texas and Florida. So it’s natural when we have a very cold 16 day period for most of the attention to be focused on cold since we have normalized all the record warmth in recent years. The cold stands out much more even though the magnitude, duration, and geographic footprint has been getting smaller over time. I also believe on a greater level most people outside this forum don’t like the cold and snow during winter. But this misses the long term challenges of the destabilizing effects of more extreme weather leading to migration shifts from areas which become difficult to survive in.

Even with the big warm up across North America the next few weeks, the Northeast is still only getting back closer to average.

Great charts showing how much smaller the geographic footprint and magnitude of these Arctic arctic outbreaks have become relative to the areas of record warmth. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/uspa/warm-cold/0 Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow The Dec-Jan period was the 7th warmest for the Contiguous U.S. since 1940. 21.1% had the warmest Dec-Jan during that period. 0.0% had the coldest Dec-Jan; 0.0% had the 2nd coldest, 0.0% had the 3rd coldest, .... all the way thru the 13th coldest. 9:32 PM · Feb 4,

This has been one of our driest winters so far since 1991 along with last winter. Driest 12-1 to 2-11 periods since 1991 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002-02-11 4.28 0 2 1992-02-11 5.01 0 3 2026-02-11 5.41 1 4 2007-02-11 5.90 0 5 2025-02-11 6.04 0 6 2022-02-11 6.47 0 7 2000-02-11 6.49 0 8 2001-02-11 6.73 0 9 2018-02-11 7.44 0 10 2003-02-11 7.49 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002-02-11 4.72 0 2 2007-02-11 6.01 0 3 1992-02-11 6.06 0 4 2026-02-11 6.16 0 5 2025-02-11 6.38 0 6 2000-02-11 6.56 0 7 2022-02-11 7.04 0 8 2001-02-11 7.08 0 9 2003-02-11 7.10 0 10 2012-02-11 7.35 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002-02-11 4.92 0 2 2012-02-11 5.77 0 3 2000-02-11 5.95 0 4 2026-02-11 6.42 0 5 2007-02-11 6.53 0 6 2005-02-11 7.01 0 7 1995-02-11 7.10 0 8 1992-02-11 7.15 0 9 2001-02-11 7.41 0 10 2021-02-11 7.65 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002-02-11 4.28 0 2 2000-02-11 4.57 0 3 2026-02-11 5.82 0 4 2001-02-11 5.90 0 5 1992-02-11 6.28 0 6 2022-02-11 6.60 0 7 1991-02-11 6.68 0 8 2012-02-11 6.77 0 9 2003-02-11 6.98 0 10 1993-02-11 7.00 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002-02-11 5.13 0 2 2007-02-11 5.59 0 3 1992-02-11 5.95 0 4 2025-02-11 6.12 0 5 2026-02-11 6.42 0 6 2000-02-11 6.47 0 7 2018-02-11 7.10 0 8 1995-02-11 7.33 0 9 2022-02-11 7.36 0 10 2003-02-11 8.38 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2021-02-11 3.47 7 2 2002-02-11 3.58 0 3 2026-02-11 3.76 0 4 2022-02-11 4.66 0 5 2007-02-11 4.84 0 6 2025-02-11 5.17 0 7 2020-02-11 5.25 2 8 2017-02-11 5.35 0 9 2011-02-11 5.81 0 10 2003-02-11 6.02 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002-02-11 3.66 0 2 2026-02-11 4.42 0 3 2007-02-11 4.74 0 4 2022-02-11 4.88 0 5 2021-02-11 5.09 0 6 2025-02-11 5.49 0 7 2016-02-11 5.79 0 8 2011-02-11 5.83 0 9 2017-02-11 5.88 0 10 2010-02-11 5.96 0

That April 1982 blizzard was the most extreme out of season blizzard with record cold that I have ever experienced. Probably near a record number of lightning flashes for any snowstorm. The extended Newark records back to 1843 show how impressive it was even ranked against the much colder 1800s climate. April Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 15.8 1915-04-04 0 - 15.8 1915-04-03 0 2 12.8 1982-04-07 0 - 12.8 1982-04-06 0 3 12.0 1924-04-02 0 4 9.5 1854-04-17 0 5 8.0 1850-04-06 0 - 8.0 1850-04-05 0 6 7.0 1916-04-09 0 7 6.0 1862-04-09 0 8 5.5 1896-04-08 0 - 5.5 1896-04-07 0 9 5.2 1938-04-07 0 10 5.0 2018-04-03 0 - 5.0 2018-04-02 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1923 13 0 2 1982 16 0 3 1857 17 0 4 1856 20 0 5 1874 21 0 - 1868 21 0 - 1855 21 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1982 30 0 2 1938 32 0 - 1857 32 0 3 1898 33 0 - 1862 33 0 4 1919 34 0 - 1896 34 0 - 1874 34 0 - 1868 34 0 5 1943 35 0 - 1879 35 0 - 1875 35 0

The Google Deep Mind has pulled ahead of the National Hurricane Center. https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/11/googles-new-weather-model-impressed-during-its-first-hurricane-season/

The EC AIFS and EPS AIFS are now the two highest scoring models.

That late March 2018 snowstorm back on the South Shore was one of my late season favorites. It was really gorgeous when the sun first came out and all the wet snow was started falling from the trees. My all-time late season favorite was the April 6th, 1982 blizzard. Was my only time experiencing afternoon temperatures in the 20s and blizzard conditions in April. Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY After March 20th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2026-02-10 18.4 2018-03-21 through 2018-03-22 0 17.0 1967-03-21 through 1967-03-22 0 16.0 1982-04-06 through 1982-04-07 0 - 16.0 1982-04-05 through 1982-04-06 0 15.0 1967-03-22 through 1967-03-23 0 14.9 2018-03-20 through 2018-03-21 0 8.5 1996-04-09 through 1996-04-10 0 8.0 1974-03-29 through 1974-03-30 0 - 8.0 1974-03-28 through 1974-03-29 0 6.0 1984-03-28 through 1984-03-29 0