bluewave

This will be a good test for the AIFS EPS coming up since it matches the composite more than the EPS with the further east ridge axis.

Very nice job. Can’t say I remember seeing this accumulation pattern before from a clipper. I didn’t notice any available models showing the NW heavy snow band from Sussex into Orange and surrounding areas.

Yeah, we would want the ridge in a similar position to what we got with the recent clipper to make things interesting. I am just not sure yet whether the Pacific Jet can relax enough to allow for sufficient retrogression. The time to watch would probably be early in January.

This is going to be one of the strongest -WPO blocks that we have seen for the month of December. But it’s a different configuration of other factors that we have previously seen with December -WPOs in the past. This one has a much more amplified Pacific Jet into the PACNW and BC than we have seen before with the historic flooding in those areas. Plus we have an out of phase +EPO and very strong ridge onto the Western US. The ridge that was out West is shifting further east leading to the moderation in temperatures across the CONUS. Unique December 2025 500 mb and Pacific Jet stream pattern compared to previous very strong -WPO patterns

This is the first 20 day below normal streak for the new 1991-2020 climate normals era. xmACIS2 reset all the prior period departures to the 1991-2020 climate normals. So we don’t have the earlier departures based on 1981-2010, 1971-2000, 1961-1990, 1951-1980..etc.

2010-2011 was some of the biggest snow piles my whole time in Long Beach where the old amusement park used to be.

One of the more impressive December shifts from colder to warmer across the CONUS since 2000.

December 1917 was the inverse of December 2015. Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - December 1917 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 728 526 - - 933 0 3.52 23.5 Average 31.7 17.0 24.1 -13.9 - - - - Normal 44.8 31.2 38.0 - 837 0 4.14 5.4 1917-12-01 45 39 42.0 0.0 23 0 0.73 0.0 1917-12-02 44 26 35.0 -6.7 30 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-03 41 19 30.0 -11.4 35 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-04 M 29 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-05 43 29 36.0 -4.9 29 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-06 M 29 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-07 M 21 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-08 43 17 30.0 -10.0 35 0 0.78 4.5 1917-12-09 43 14 28.5 -11.2 36 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-10 16 7 11.5 -28.0 53 0 0.02 0.2 1917-12-11 22 9 15.5 -23.7 49 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-12 20 15 17.5 -21.4 47 0 0.03 0.3 1917-12-13 32 14 23.0 -15.6 42 0 0.80 8.0 1917-12-14 30 22 26.0 -12.4 39 0 0.80 8.0 1917-12-15 M 11 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-16 19 8 13.5 -24.4 51 0 T T 1917-12-17 30 15 22.5 -15.1 42 0 0.05 0.5 1917-12-18 33 20 26.5 -10.9 38 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-19 34 25 29.5 -7.6 35 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-20 39 32 35.5 -1.4 29 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-21 43 26 34.5 -2.1 30 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-22 39 20 29.5 -6.9 35 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-23 32 12 22.0 -14.2 43 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-24 41 25 33.0 -2.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-25 M 28 M M M M 0.11 T 1917-12-26 M 18 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-27 M 10 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-28 31 10 20.5 -14.6 44 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-29 M -2 M M M M 0.20 2.0 1917-12-30 4 -13 -4.5 -39.2 69 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-31 4 -9 -2.5 -37.0 67 0 0.00 0.0 Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - December 2015 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1755 1331 - - 465 0 4.40 0.3 - Average 56.6 42.9 49.8 11.8 - - - - 0.0 Normal 44.8 31.2 38.0 - 837 0 4.14 5.4 2015-12-01 52 42 47.0 5.0 18 0 0.36 0.0 0 2015-12-02 56 45 50.5 8.8 14 0 0.16 0.0 0 2015-12-03 55 44 49.5 8.1 15 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-04 53 39 46.0 4.8 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-05 54 35 44.5 3.6 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-06 55 33 44.0 3.4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-07 58 34 46.0 5.7 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-08 49 38 43.5 3.5 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-09 53 33 43.0 3.3 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-10 62 48 55.0 15.5 10 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-11 60 46 53.0 13.8 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-12 65 48 56.5 17.6 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-13 68 54 61.0 22.4 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-14 67 52 59.5 21.1 5 0 0.24 0.0 0 2015-12-15 68 52 60.0 21.9 5 0 0.05 0.0 0 2015-12-16 53 43 48.0 10.1 17 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-17 59 50 54.5 16.9 10 0 1.02 0.0 0 2015-12-18 56 37 46.5 9.1 18 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-19 41 34 37.5 0.4 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-20 45 33 39.0 2.1 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-21 54 34 44.0 7.4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-22 61 52 56.5 20.1 8 0 0.06 0.0 0 2015-12-23 66 50 58.0 21.8 7 0 1.44 0.0 0 2015-12-24 71 59 65.0 29.1 0 0 0.03 0.0 0 2015-12-25 63 54 58.5 22.8 6 0 0.03 0.0 0 2015-12-26 60 48 54.0 18.5 11 0 0.02 0.0 0 2015-12-27 62 46 54.0 18.7 11 0 0.08 0.0 0 2015-12-28 46 34 40.0 4.9 25 0 0.05 0.1 0 2015-12-29 45 34 39.5 4.6 25 0 0.60 0.2 0 2015-12-30 49 38 43.5 8.8 21 0 0.24 0.0 0 2015-12-31 49 42 45.5 11.0 19 0 0.02 0.0 0

We have been getting the windshield wiper effect from run to run. Some runs a little over and other runs a little under. So with the warm up coming the next several days, my guess for December 17 to 31 will be near 0 to +1.

Just updating for the newer data on 12-17 vs 12-10. The EPS is around a 0 to +1 the rest of the month. So that would yield a 7 station average of around -3 to -4 from the current -7.7. Long Island is running a little warmer and is only -5.5 at ISP through the 16th.

This is going to be one of the strongest -WPO blocks that we have seen for the month of December. But it’s a different configuration of other factors that we have previously seen with December -WPOs in the past. This one has a much more amplified Pacific Jet into the PACNW and BC than we have seen before with the historic flooding in those areas. Plus we have an out of phase +EPO and very strong ridge onto the Western US. Unique December 2025 500 mb and Pacific Jet stream pattern compared to previous very strong -WPO patterns

All we can say is that the first 16 days of December have been one of our coldest 16 day periods relative to the means of the 2020s so far. The clipper was a nice contribution to this period feeling very wintry around the area. This was actually the coldest first half of December in 20 years. The new Newark records for December now go back to 1850. So this was ranked 26th coldest which is very respectable in our warmer 2020s climate. The current 7 station departure across the area is -7.7. With the moderation coming up next few weeks, the final number this month may finish in the -3 to -4 range. Models have been fluctuating from run to so we won’t know the exact number for a weeks. EWR…..-8.1 NYC……-8.7 LGA……-8.7 JFK…….-7.8 HPN……-7.6 BDR…...-7.9 ISP……..-5.4 AVG…….-7.7 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Coldest 12-01 to 12-16 periods Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1867-12-16 24.1 5 2 1904-12-16 24.6 0 3 1910-12-16 25.5 0 4 1917-12-16 25.7 4 5 1876-12-16 27.0 5 6 1868-12-16 27.3 3 7 1958-12-16 27.9 0 - 1871-12-16 27.9 1 8 1902-12-16 28.6 0 9 1989-12-16 28.8 0 - 1869-12-16 28.8 4 10 1860-12-16 28.9 2 11 1880-12-16 29.0 3 12 1895-12-16 29.1 2 13 1859-12-16 29.4 4 14 1886-12-16 29.5 4 15 1882-12-16 29.7 2 16 1915-12-16 29.8 1 17 1903-12-16 30.0 0 - 1872-12-16 30.0 2 18 2005-12-16 30.4 0 19 1976-12-16 30.6 0 20 1854-12-16 30.8 3 21 1898-12-16 31.0 0 22 1937-12-16 31.1 0 23 1942-12-16 31.2 0 24 1875-12-16 31.4 0 25 1851-12-16 31.7 4 26 2025-12-16 31.8 0 - 1945-12-16 31.8 0

Interesting new study confirming other recent studies that the cold pool in the North Atlantic is more a sign of the atmospheric patterns rather than an AMOC decline. Anthony Masiello ‪@antmasiello.bsky.social‬ Follow Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole. ‪Sang-Ki Lee‬ ‪@sklee621.bsky.social‬ · 1mo The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t... The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant… ocean2climate.org 11:10 AM · Nov 12,

You have a great eye for photography and video like Don. I used to be much more active in photography years ago. Enjoyed walking around and taking photos in Manhattan. I would shoot rolls of Kodachrome 64 color snd Tri-x 400 black film. There was an old place that rented darkrooms by the hour at 20W 20th street to develop the black and white. It’s much more convent these days with mobile photography and software.

Most of us on here describe lows which track to our west as a cutter. Sometimes they ride north of the Great Lakes traveling from west to east. Other times they start out near the Gulf or Southeastern States and lift up through the Eastern Lakes anywhere from Cleveland to Eastern PA into Canada. Either way parts of the region at least make into at least the 50s with mostly rain that can be heavy with a SE to SW flow. The strongest cutter that I experienced since the 1990s was 11-11-95. A deep low rode north near the APPS into Canada and a secondary developed just to our west. This delivered 70-75 mph gusts in Long Beach which the western half of town losing power for nearly 24hrs. The worst flood cutter I remember here was later in January 1996 with a deep snowpack. All the roads were like rivers in Long Beach as the giant snow piles on the side of the road blocked the storm drains. The most recent damaging flood cutter upstate was 12-25-20. The 40” +record snow pack rapidly melted and lead to serious flash flooding with 1.50” of rain and landslides damaging the ski resorts.