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SchaumburgStormer

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Everything posted by SchaumburgStormer

  1. SchaumburgStormer
    This model madness has us pretty close to simply nowcasting.
  2. SchaumburgStormer
    Multi-seasonal trends will not be denied. Delayed due to lack of data, but not denied
  3. SchaumburgStormer
    These comments without any justification or support are the best, and add a lot to the conversation
  4. SchaumburgStormer
    If nothing else, whatever this every drying, sheared wave drops will add to the snow over streak we have had. Had >1” of snowcover since December 29th.
  5. SchaumburgStormer
    And you certainly don’t want to get caught with your pants down in a situation where you go from watch, to advisory, only to have warning criteria verify and have to upgrade mid storm.
  6. SchaumburgStormer
    What a joke. No wonder the models have been bouncing all over the damn place
  7. SchaumburgStormer
    The low just hangs of Kansas City for awhile while getting sheared out.
  8. SchaumburgStormer
    GFS is further NW through 42
  9. SchaumburgStormer
  10. SchaumburgStormer
  11. SchaumburgStormer
    Serious long duration snowfall. Will be a baller storm day of snow for those in the band.
  12. SchaumburgStormer
    54 hours, the low is in east Kentucky and it is still snowing back to Nebraska
  13. SchaumburgStormer
  14. SchaumburgStormer
    This run looks like a crush job for the 88 corridor. Cyclone banking big time too
  15. SchaumburgStormer
    At 45hr, low is in the same place as it was at 18z. Slightly strong low
  16. SchaumburgStormer
    SREF plumes for ORD continue to dump the lowballs. Mean up to near 8” with a big bunch between 8-12”
  17. SchaumburgStormer
    NAM looks to be NW and a touch stronger with the low
  18. SchaumburgStormer
    I really like the area between mby and RFD based on trends. But of course, am waiting on high res models to inevitably shift things a bit
  19. SchaumburgStormer
    Still some clunkers dragging things down, but 7.5” SREF mean at ORD with a bunch in double digits. This has all the ingredients to be an over performer, and I think somewhere in LOT will crack a foot.
  20. SchaumburgStormer
    It’s fine to worry. Hell, I am worried about some sort of monkey wrench. Where I have an issue is with a “met” ignoring guidance to fit some sort of weird crusade for underperformance. If it indeed does underperform, then we can do a post analysis, but ignoring a consensus of modeling is simply bad forecasting and wishcasting
  21. SchaumburgStormer
    Do you read what you write? You clearly picked 2 models here... Proving that have the degree does not necessarily make a good forecaster
  22. SchaumburgStormer
    I’m not sure why you, as a meteorologist, are cherry picking models which are outliers of the growing consensus to minimize the storm. Yes there are failure modes, but the preponderance of the evidence is showing a substantial event for N IL.
  23. SchaumburgStormer
    I think northern LOT is in a 6” floor, high ceiling scenario. If the low remains intact a bit longer, there will be some sig totals. W LOT could jackpot by catching both the initial heavier band and any redevelopment for a secondary low.
  24. SchaumburgStormer
  25. SchaumburgStormer
    Shears out and just sits on N IL snowing. Totals will be in line with earlier runs
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