Stebo

Obviously the HRRR came south and weaker at 12z, that was to be expected, the NAMs also came south some as well with the snow shield.

Yeah I am doubting a 973mb low through the straits.

GFS has the Canadian models agreeing with it, the euro is a bit north but would still hit the northern suburbs, the mesoscale models like the NAM and HRRR are the ones far to the north.

Yeah, I normally don't disagree with DTX, but with the holiday travel and the face that the western part of their CWA is absolutely going to be warning criteria, I don't get the reluctance. I would do WSW for the entire CWA, it's borderline but the travel would be the tipping point to a warning

I don't think the negative lake influence will be as prevalence as some models show.

Looking good time to lock it in

I don't think it will be that prolific but I would lean more right than left. Mostly because we are rapidly running out of time for a rug pull. The amount of cold air in place is going to do work and with the current system being as strong as it will be it limits the cutability of this one.

How often is Kankakee in the lead on snow, let the man have his flowers.

Climo is tough to fight, you probably average half of places like Chicago and here.

Peoria is pretty far south, so yeah being skeptical down there is a good move. This is probably more of an I-80 north threat.

The amount of cold air being in place before this lifts out will be hard to shunt away. I am not surprised by the amount of WAA snows the models are showing.

Yessir, I drove home after that storm for my birthday, 2 days after it was done we were still buried.

Nice, FIRE UP, class of 08 here.

Mt Pleasant, CMU student?

BAM Wx is the dregs man

Gasp, above average snow for where he lives? Shocking I tell you.

Man it has been a boring stretch lately, I mean I guess the other shoe drops and we have an active winter but it has been quite a quiet run.

It was in the low to mid 70s in the western UP at 530am. That would be incredible warmth in July at that time of night let alone early October.

Pushing close to an inch here at work, we desperately needed all of this rain.

Wouldn't mind a bit of rain, but otherwise it is pretty spectacular run we got coming here. 80/55 every day for the next week+.

Yeah I hope so, honestly I have a feeling we got some October 80s coming this year too. Very much so, it feels like its been several years since we had a good one.

Yeah its like a bowl where it is, very misleading for temps in the area but true to its location. 50 again last night for a low here. I see that Grayling was 33 last hour up north, pretty wild for this time of year.

Going up north this weekend the point and click forecast is as follows: Thursday A 40 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Friday Sunny, with a high near 71. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. That 43 is going to be crisp, I do hope we hit the 77 because I do wanna go to the beach one of the days up there.

There was nothing wrong with your post, it has been pretty boring at times for SW MI.

Nice little storm passing through here. We actually needed some rain here in Southern Macomb. We missed out on most of the flood that hit North of here