donsutherland1

Let me rephrase things a little. The pattern was not forecast to be especially unfavorable to ice reduction. The forecast showed fluctuations in the NAM, not a persistent anomaly. One would have needed a fairly extraordinary development to lead to an unprecedented early end to melt season. The MAN had been forecast to slide back toward neutral during the first week of September. All other things being equal, that suggested reductions in Arctic sea ice would continue probably for another week and perhaps two.

As you noted correctly, had there been an August minimum, it would have been unprecedented. Since 8/31, Arctic sea ice extent has continued to decline. That a piece of guidance would suggest an unprecedented situation, moreso when the upper air pattern had been forecast to grow more favorable for continued reductions in sea ice, raises some questions about the model itself. I'm not sure what the track record of the model in question is, but this is a high profile miss. Overall, forecasting of sea ice minimums remains a fairly low skill endeavor at present.

Hurricane Dorian will continue to gradually weaken tonight and tomorrow as continues its slow turn to the north. Nevertheless, Dorian will remain a powerful hurricane. Dorian will likely pass just off the Florida Peninsula. As Dorian comes northward and gradually takes a more eastward turn, portions of the Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas' coastlines will likely experience heavy rain and at least some damaging winds. Coastal flooding is very likely. Afterward, Dorian will likely pass far enough to the east to avoid having a significant impact on the greater New York City region, though it will very likely lead to rough surf and strong rip currents. Parts of Long Island and eastern New England could still receive some periods of rain or heavier showers and gusty winds associated with Dorian. Dorian's principal impact might be the amplification of the larger circulation. As a result, an unseasonably cool air mass could push into the region for the latter part of this week. Beyond that, the timing for a return to normal and then above normal temperatures could be slow. Some of the guidance is signaling a rebound to notably warmer conditions after mid-month. Across the Atlantic Ocean, the most recent round of excessive heat continues to dissipate in Europe. Nevertheless, as the area of warmth headed north and east, a number of records were set. Select records included: Kecskemet, Hungary: 91°, Kirkenes Lufthavn, Norway: 72° (tied September record); Kruunupyy, Finland: 73°; Murmansk, Russia: 75° (new September record); Oulu, Finland: 75°; Pecs, Hungary: 90°; Rovaniemi, Finland: 72°; Szolnok, Hungary: 91°; and, Vadso, Norway: 68°. In the United States, Denver recorded a 100° high temperature, its latest 100° reading on record. The prior latest such temperature occurred on August 16, 2002. Pueblo, CO also saw the temperature set a new September record at 102°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around August 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter. The SOI was -20.86 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.419. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September, though a warm monthly anomaly remains the base case. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. On September 1, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.881 (RMM). The August 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.039. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is 48%.

Numerous monthly records were set in Colorado and Wyoming today.

With Hurricane Dorian's historic intensification, it is a good time to point to an article in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate from last fall. The article noted that one can expect more intense storms on account of climate change. Abstract: As one of the first global coupled climate models to simulate and predict category 4 and 5 (Saffir–Simpson scale) tropical cyclones (TCs) and their interannual variations, the High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) represents a novel source of insight on how the entire TC intensification distribution could be transformed because of climate change. In this study, three 70-yr HiFLOR experiments are performed to identify the effects of climate change on TC intensity and intensification. For each of the experiments, sea surface temperature (SST) is nudged to different climatological targets and atmospheric radiative forcing is specified, allowing us to explore the sensitivity of TCs to these conditions. First, a control experiment, which uses prescribed climatological ocean and radiative forcing based on observations during the years 1986–2005, is compared to two observational records and evaluated for its ability to capture the mean TC behavior during these years. The simulated intensification distributions as well as the percentage of TCs that become major hurricanes show similarities with observations. The control experiment is then compared to two twenty-first-century experiments, in which the climatological SSTs from the control experiment are perturbed by multimodel projected SST anomalies and atmospheric radiative forcing from either 2016–35 or 2081–2100 (RCP4.5 scenario). The frequency, intensity, and intensification distribution of TCs all shift to higher values as the twenty-first century progresses. HiFLOR’s unique response to climate change and fidelity in simulating the present climate lays the groundwork for future studies involving models of this type. The article also covers the likely increase in the most extreme tropical cyclones: The increased probability of higher-intensity TCs becomes more tangible when focusing on the number of TCs that exceed 165 kt in each simulation, which is the fastest wind speed ever recorded during a TC landfall (Typhoon Haiyan; Takagi and Esteban 2016). In the 70-yr HiFLOR CTL experiment, nine TCs achieve awind speed of greater than 165 kt. The number of TCs that exceed this threshold grows to 32 for the 2016–35 simulation and 72 for the 2081–2100 simulation. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0898.1

Hurricane Dorian may begin to gradually weaken later tonight or tomorrow as its forward motion continues to slow and then it eventually begins to turn to the north. Even as Dorian will likely pass offshore, portions of the Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas' coastlines could still experience heavy rain and at least some damaging winds. Enough EPS members suggest the possibility of landfall to avoid completely ruling out such a scenario in Florida and especially in eastern North Carolina. Afterward, Dorian will likely pass far enough to the east to avoid having a significant impact on the greater New York City region, though it will very likely lead to rough surf and strong rip currents. Parts of Long Island and eastern New England could still receive some periods of rain or heavier showers and gusty winds associated with Dorian. Dorian's principal impact might be the amplification of the larger circulation. As a result, an unseasonably cool air mass could push into the region for the latter part of this week. Beyond that, the timing for a return to normal and then above normal temperatures could be slow. Some of the guidance is signaling a rebound to notably warmer conditions after mid-month. Across the Atlantic Ocean, the latest round of heat that toppled records in large parts of Europe will be concluding Europe. Earlier today, a number of daily and even monthly records were registered in Norway and Sweden. Select records included: Bardufoss, Norway: 73°; Bodo Vi, Norway: 73° (tied September record); Evenes, Norway: 75° (new September record); Kirkenes Lufthavn, Norway: 68°; Leknes, Norway: 72° (new September record); Liepaja, Latvia: 84°; Linkoping, Sweden: 81° (new September record); Murmansk, Russia: 68°; Norrkoping, Sweden: 82° (new September record); Pori, Finland: 77°; Stockholm: 79° (tied September record); Svolvaer, Norway: 68° (new September record); Vadso, Norway: 64°; Vassa, Finland: 77°; Vasteras, Sweden: 79°; and, Visby Flygplats, Sweden: 82° (new September record). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -14.32 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.186. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September, though a warm monthly anomaly remains the base case. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. On August 31, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.058 (RMM). The August 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.185. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is 46%.

On August 31, Arctic sea ice extent was 4,259,262 square kilometers on JAXA. Based on sensitivity analysis, the following are implied probabilities for various minimum extent figures: 4.25 million square kilometers or below: 99% 4.00 million square kilometers or below: 59% 3.75 million square kilometers or below: 0.6% 75th percentile: 4.041 million square kilometers 25th percentile: 3.916 million square kilometers Minimum extent figures based on historic 2010-2018 data: Mean decline: 3.979 million square kilometers Median decline: 4.016 million square kilometers Minimum decline: 4.078 million square kilometers Maximum decline: 3.757 million square kilometers Summary: After a pause likely due to storminess over the Polar region, Arctic sea ice extent has again begun to decline. Arctic sea ice extent will likely decline with some momentary increases over the next 1-2 weeks. A minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers still remains possible, but the probability of that outcome has declined markedly over the past week.

Notes: This post was prepared in scientific style to provide links to key points in the section on climate change. All temperature data is from the National Climatic Data Center. The EPO data is through August 29. OVERVIEW Prior to 2019, July 2016 was Anchorage, Alaska's warmest month on record. Summer 2019 was even warmer than July 2016. A warm synoptic pattern that occurred within the context of increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing resulted in exceptional and persistent record-breaking warmth this summer. During June-August 2019, Anchorage experienced its warmest summer on record by 2.0°F (1.1°C). Its summer mean temperature (62.815°F/17.119°C) exceeded that of its warmest month on record prior to 2019 (62.694°F/17.052°C in July 2016). Summer 2019 saw Anchorage record its warmest-ever June, July, and August. Anchorage tied its all-time record high minimum temperature on two consecutive days. Anchorage reached 90°F (32.2°C) for the first time on record. The duration of the excessive warmth and extreme temperatures recorded during the summer would have been very unlikely, if not improbable, without human-induced climate change. PREDOMINANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN Summer 2019 featured a remarkable coupling of atmosphere and ocean. A persistent upper air ridge that promoted warm and dry conditions was anchored over the waters with the highest sea surface temperature anomalies. These conditions promoted a synoptic pattern where the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) was negative. The negative EPO combined with a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) to form a negative Arctic Oscillation-negative EPO pattern (AO-/EPO-) that predominated during the summer. During summer 2019, the AO was negative on 81/92 (88%) days. The EPO was negative on 64% of days. An AO-/EPO- pattern is typically a warm one in Anchorage. For the current climate reference period (1981-2010), the average summer temperature in Anchorage was 56.9°F (13.8°C). During AO-/EPO- patterns, the average was 57.6°F (14.2°C). Climate change has led to summers becoming warmer and also warm synoptic patterns (AO-/EPO-) becoming warmer. ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE The observed global warming since the 1950s is unequivocal with anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions being the dominant driver of that warming (IPCC Climate Change Synthesis Report 2014). The warming is a global phenomenon with 98% of the world having experienced its warmest 51 years during the current 2,000 years (Neukom, et al. 2019). Since 1880, Arctic temperatures have been increasing at more than twice the rate of global temperatures (GISTEMP Data Set). In recent decades, the rate at which the Arctic has been warming relative to worldwide temperatures has increased. From 1980 through 2018, the Arctic has warmed at a decadal rate of 1.51°F (0.84°C), which is just over 3.5 times the global rate (GISTEMP Data Set). Multiple lines of evidence corroborate the rapid warming that is taking place in the Arctic. Increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage; warming of near-surface permafrost; and, decreases in sea ice thickness and extent, and spring snow cover extent and duration are consistent with rising temperatures (Box, et al. 2019). Consistent with the Arctic warming, Alaska has recently experienced temperatures that are warmer than they have been at any time in the past century (Thoman et al., 2019). As Alaska has warmed, Anchorage has also experienced rising temperatures. A disproportionate share of Anchorage's warmest months has occurred in 2000 or later. During the 1961-1990 base period, Anchorage had a summer (June 1-August 31) mean temperature of 56.4°F (13.6°C). During the current climate reference period (1981-2010), Anchorage's average summer temperature had risen to 56.9°F (13.8°C). For the most recent 30-year period (1989-2018), Anchorage's average summer temperature had increased further to 57.6°F (14.2°C). The last time Anchorage had a cooler than normal summer (mean temperature below the 1981-2010 reference period) was 2012 when the average summer temperature was 56.0°F (13.3°C). Without climate change, the extreme summer 2019 warmth would have been improbable. However, the combination of a rising average summer temperature and increasing variability (1961-1990: mean temperature 56.4°F/13.6°C; standard deviation: 1.4°F/0.8°C vs. 1989-2018: mean temperature: 57.6°F/14.2°C; standard deviation: 1.6°F/0.9°C) has made summers like 2019 approximately 190 times more likely than they had been. The long duration of the AO-/EPO- synoptic pattern led to the relentless persistence of above to much above normal temperatures in Anchorage that allowed monthly warm temperature records to be set in June, July, and August. Rapid Arctic warming has contributed to an increasing frequency of long-duration upper air patterns (Francis, et al. 2018). Should the world warm 3.6°F (2.0°C) above its pre-industrial temperatures, the persistence of boreal summer weather will likely increase further (Pfleiderer, et al. 2019). Based on the above evidence, human-driven climate change played a key role in bringing about Anchorage's historic summer warmth. Without anthropogenic warming, the combination of the exceptional heat and remarkable duration of the warmth in Anchorage would have been very unlikely, if not improbable. DATA AND RECORDS Summer 2019 Temperature Thresholds: Lows 60°F (15.6°C) or above: 9 days (previous summer and annual record: 4, 2016) Highs 70°F (21.1°C) or above: 49 days (previous summer record: 40, 2004; previous annual record: 42, 2013) Highs: 80°F (26.7°C) or above: 8 days (previous summer and annual record: 4 days, 2015) Highs: 90°F (32.2°C) or above: 1 day (none prior to 2019) Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 8: 54°F (12.2°C) (old record: 53°F/11.7°C, 1978) June 24: 58°F (14.4°C) (tied record set in 1984) June 28: 57°F (13.9°C) (old record: 56°F/13.3°C, 2015 and 2016) June 29: 60°F (15.6°C (old record: 58°F/14.4°C, 1984 and 1990) June: 3 new records and 1 tied record July 2: 57°F (13.9°C) (tied record set in 1970) July 3: 58°F (14.4°C (tied record set in 1979 and tied in 1999 and 2014) July 5: 61°F (16.1°C) (old record: 60°F/15.6°C, 1984) July 6: 59°F (15.0°C) (tied record set in 2015) July 8: 61°F (16.1°C) (old record: 59°F/15.0°C, 1968, 2003, and 2004) July 9: 62°F (16.7°C) (old record: 59°F/15.0°C, 2003) July 12: 60°F (15.6°C) (old record: 59°F/15.0°C, 1977) July 13: 59°F (15.0°C) (tied record set in 1972 and tied in 2013) July 20: 59°F (15.0°C) (old record: 58°F/14.4°C, 1973, 1983, 2003, 2004, and 2016) July 22: 58°F (14.4°C) (tied record set in 1984 and tied in 1996, 2013, and 2016) July 24: 59°F (15.0°C) (tied record set in 1984) July: 5 new records and 6 tied records August 7: 61°F (16.1°C) (old record: 58°F/14.4°C, 1979 and 1983) August 13: 63°F (17.2°C) (old record: 57°F/13.9°C, 2003) ***tied all-time record*** August 14: 63°F (17.2°C) (old record: 58°F/14.4°C), 2001) ***tied all-time record*** August 16: 58°F (14.4°C) (tied record set in 1967) August 17: 57°F (13.9°C) (old record: 56°F/13.3°C, 1984) August: 4 new records and 1 tied record Summer: 12 new records and 8 tied records Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures: June 23: 78°F (25.6°C) (old record: 75°F/23.9°C, 1974) June 24: 75°F (23.9°C (old record: 74°F/23.3°C, 2015) June 27: 79°F (26.1°C) (old record: 78°F/25.6°C, 1997) June 28: 81°F (27.2°C) (old record: 80°F/26.7°C, 1997) June 29: 82°F (27.8°C) (old record: 77°F/25.0°C 1968, 1989, and 1990) June: 5 new records July 3: 80°F (26.7°C) (tied record set in 2018) July 4: 90°F (32.2°C) (old record: 77°F/25.0°C), 1999) ***all-time record*** July 5: 81°F (27.2°C) (old record: 77°F/25.0°C, 1999) July 6: 81°F (27.2°C) (tied record set in 2015) July 7: 85°F (29.4°C) (old record: 79°F/26.1°C, 2009) July 8: 85°F (29.4°C) (old record: 84°/28.9°C, 2003) July: 4 new records and 2 tied records August 7: 77°F (25.0°C) (tied record set in 2015) August 10: 77°F (25.0°C) (old record: 75°F/23.9°C, 1960, 1972, and 2004) August 12: 77°F (25.0°C) (tied record set in 2005) August 13: 77°F (25.0°C) (old record: 75°F/23.9°C, 1963, 1977, 2007) August 14: 75°F (23.9°C) (old record: 74°F/23.3°C, 1990) August 15: 77°F (25.0°C) (old record: 76°F/24.4°C, 1984) August: 4 new records and 2 tied records Summer: 13 new records and 4 tied records CONCLUSION Anchorage experienced a historically warm summer. The all-time record high temperature was established, the all-time record warm minimum temperature was tied on two consecutive days, and numerous daily record high maximum and minimum temperatures were set or tied. June 2019 was the warmest June on record. July 2019 was the warmest July and month on record. August 2019 was the warmest August on record. Ocean-atmosphere coupling produced a persistent pattern associated with warmer than normal temperatures. Anthropogenic climate change, that has driven global and Arctic warming and led to increasing temperature variability in the Arctic region, has dramatically increased the probability of persistent warmth and extreme high temperatures. Absent the contribution of climate change, the kind of warmth seen during summer 2019 was extremely unlikely, if not improbable. Going forward, the ongoing warming is likely to continue on account of a continuing rise in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Although summer warmth equivalent to 2019 will likely remain rare over the next decade or two, the probability of such occurrences will very likely increase.

Hurricane Dorian will likely remain a dangerous Category 4 hurricane through much of tomorrow. Later this weekend, the steering currents will likely break down leaving Dorian drifting on its approach to Florida. The probability that Dorian will avoid destructive landfall has increased. Most EPS members now show Dorian's remaining offshore. Nevertheless, the Florida coastline will still experience heavy rain and damaging winds. Afterward, it remains uncertain whether Dorian or its remnants will have a direct impact on the greater New York City region, though it will very likely lead to rough surf and strong rip currents. Its impact on the larger circulation could drive an unseasonably cool air mass into the region for the latter part of next week. Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat will shift into eastern Europe beginning tomorrow before dissipating. Select daily records included: Cannes, France: 88°; Cape Mele, Italy: 93°; Clermont-Ferrand, France: 93°; Copenhagen: 79°; Fassberg, Germany: 88°; Genoa, Italy: 91°; Istres, France: 91°; Lille, France: 88°; Malmo, Sweden: 79°; Meppen, Germany: 86°; Nimes, France: 91°; Roenne, Denmark: 79°; Ronchi Dei Legionari, Italy: 95°; Soenderborg Lufthavn, Denmark: 79°; St. Dizier, France: 91°; Trieste, Italy: 95°; and, Wittmundhaven, Germany: 86°. Anchorage has experienced its warmest summer on record with a mean temperature of 62.8°. That temperature exceeds what had previously been the warmest monthly temperature on record prior to July 2019 by nearly one-tenth of a degree while smashing the prior summer of 60.8° from 2016. In addition, Anchorage experienced its warmest August on record. That follows a record warm June and a record warm July (and month). 2019 is the only year with three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm). San Francisco experienced its warmest August on record with a mean temperature of 68.4°. The old record was 68.0°, which was set 2015. Summer 2019 was also the warmest summer on record with a mean temperature of 66.1°. Although that rounded figure tied the average from summer 2014, it was nearly five hundredths of a degree warmer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -11.90 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.579. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. On August 30, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.183 (RMM). The August 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.109. Finally, New York City had an August mean temperature of 75.5°. that was 0.3° above normal.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.6 1.5 2.1

Hurricane Dorian will likely continue to intensify in coming days. Late this weekend, the steering currents could break down leaving Dorian drifting on its approach to Florida. That might give it some opportunity to avoid a destructive landfall. Afterward, it remains uncertain whether Dorian or its remnants will ever have a direct impact on the greater New York City region, though it will very likely lead to rough surf and strong rip currents. Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat will shift into eastern Europe late this weekend before dissipating. Select daily records included: Berlevag, Norway: 75°; Carcassonne, France: 97°; Istres, France: 93°; Ivalo, Finland: 72°; Kuusamo, Finland: 72°; Mehamn, Norway: 75°; Montpelier France: 91°; Murmansk, Russia: 72°; Nimes, France: 99° (old record: 88°); Orange, France: 97°; Trieste, Italy: 90°; and, Vadso, Norway: 68°. The warmest summer on record is concluding in Anchorage. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will likely finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.7°. That temperature would match what had previously been the warmest monthly temperature on record prior to July 2019. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is near 100%. August would mark the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. Moreover, San Francisco will likely experience its warmest August on record and could match its warmest summer on record and perhaps surpassing it by a few hundredths of a degree. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -20.70 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.828. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. A plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. Dorian's impact on the larger synoptic pattern has increased uncertainty for the first 10 days of the month. The second half of the first week of September appears to offer one chance of above to much above normal readings. The second half of the month could be warmer relative to normal (not necessarily in absolute terms) than the first half. September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 29, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.107 (RMM). The August 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.949. Finally, New York City has an implied 76% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

The warmest anomalies will likely occur during the second half of September. Dorian's impact on the pattern has created some additional uncertainty for the first 10 days of the month.

Early this morning, Joe Bastardi retweeted a twitter post noting that Moscow had an unusually cold summer and wrote, "yet not a peep from the warming weather media." The reason the warmth, not Moscow's cold, received widespread news coverage is or should be largely self-evident: 1. This summer, warmth, not cold, was the big global story 2. Cold areas were relatively localized, but areas of warmth were widespread 3. Historic heat waves affected Europe (two of which shattered widespread all-time high temperature records, including national high temperature records) 4. Alaska experienced its warmest month on record and Anchorage's summer will likely match its warmest month on record prior to 2019 On August 1, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported: Exceptional heat has been observed across the globe in recent week, with a string of European countries logging record highs temperatures that have caused disruption to transport and infrastructure and stress on people's health and the environment. As the heat dome spread northwards through Scandinavia and towards Greenland, it accelerated the already above average rate of ice melt. "July has re-written climate history, with dozens of new temperature records at local, national and global level," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. "The extraordinary heat was accompanied by dramatic ice melt in Greenland, in the Arctic and on European glaciers. Unprecedented wildfires raged in the Arctic for the second consecutive month, devastating once pristine forests which used to absorb carbon dioxide and instead turning them into fiery sources of greenhouse gases. This is not science fiction. It is the reality of climate change. It is happening now and it will worsen in the future without urgent climate action," Mr Taalas said. "WMO expects that 2019 will be in the five top warmest years on record, and that 2015-2019 will be the warmest of any equivalent five-year period on record. . https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/july-matched-and-maybe-broke-record-hottest-month-analysis-began Below are the global Temperature Anomalies (June 1-August 27, 2019): Below are the GISS temperature anomalies and rank: June: +0.92°C (1st warmest June) July: +0.93°C (1st warmest July and also 1st warmest month) August: To be available by mid-September　 In sum, in the big picture, excessive and persistent warmth was the major story of summer 2019. Widespread monthly and all-time high temperature records were set. Localized areas of cold existed, but they were the exception this summer. Only few monthly record low temperature records were set. The coverage properly focused on the major weather story of this summer, the widespread and, in places, historic warmth.

Under bright sunshine, readings returned to near normal today. Somewhat above normal temperatures are likely across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions tomorrow. Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat could last through the current week. Select daily records included: Alta Lufthavn, Norway: 75°; Banak, Norway: 75°; Berlevag, Norway: 75° (old record: 63°); Honningsvag, Norway: 70°; Ivalo, Finland: 75°; Kemi, Finland: 75°; Kirkenes Lufthavn, Norway: 75°; Kiruna, Sweden: 72°; Kruunuppy, Finland: 81°; Kuopio, Finland: 79°; Kuusamo, Finland: 73°; Mehamn, Norway: 73°; Oulu, Finland: 79°; Rovaniemi, Finland: 75°; Sorkjosen, Norway: 75°; Vaasa, Finland: 81°; and, Vadso, Norway: 72° (old record: 61°). The warmest summer on record is concluding in Anchorage. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will likely finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.7°. That temperature would match what had previously been the warmest monthly temperature on record prior to July 2019. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will very likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 99%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. Moreover, San Francisco will likely experience its warmest August on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -15.05 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.676. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. A plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. The second half of the first week of September appears to offer one chance of above to much above normal readings. The second half of the month could be warmer relative to normal (not in necessarily in absolute terms) than the first half. September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 28, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.948 (RMM). The August 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.171. Finally, New York City has an implied 65% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

The ugly side of the climate change denial movement... Excerpts from Scientific American: The verbal and written attacks derive mostly from men. That’s probably not a coincidence. Studies show that climate skepticism is a male-dominated perspective. Men are less likely than women to accept scientific conclusions about people being responsible for rising temperatures. And they’re more likely to overestimate their knowledge of the issue... “I do see a shift toward a lack of substance sharing,” Cobb said. “So much of the flak from the climate-denial community, I think, was in the form of trying to share graphs to show their point, trying to question you on the validity of the science. And a lot of that was very misguided, of course, but it was still pretending to be substantive, on the data, on the issues themselves. But it seems much of it today has turned completely to ad hominem attacks, these stream of emotionally laden insults with no substance whatsoever behind them, just trying to land one below the belt.” ...“I can tell you that there is a very large overlap between those who harbor conspiracy theories about climate science and those who express unenlightened views when it comes to matters of ethnicity and gender,” Mann said. “In short, yeah—a surprisingly large number of climate deniers are misogynists. And so our female colleagues are at the receiving end of a particularly toxic brew of denialism, conspiratorial ideation and misogyny. It is most unfortunate and most disturbing.” https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/as-climate-scientists-speak-out-sexist-attacks-are-on-the-rise/

As Tropical Depression Erin passes offshore, additional showers are likely in parts of New York and New Jersey. Steadier rain is likely across Long Island and parts of New England. Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat could last through the current week. Select daily records included: Bergen, Norway: 79°; Billund Lufthavn, Denmark: 84°; Bronnoysund, Norway: 81°; Diepholz, Germany: 91°; Floro, Norway: 79°; Groningen, Netherlands: 88°; Haugesund, Norway: 79° (old record: 68°); Kiruna, Sweden: 75°; Kramfors Flygplats, Sweden: 79°; Kristiansund, Norway: 82°; Meppen, Germany: 90°; Mo I Rana, Norway: 82°; Namsos Lufthavn, Norway: 84° (old record: 72°); Nordholz, Germany: 90°; Norrkoping, Sweden: 82°; Odense, Denmark: 86°; Ostersund Froson, Sweden: 75°; Sandessjoen, Norway: 84° (new August record); Skrydstrup, Denmark: 86°; Soenderborg Lufthavn, Denmark: 82°; Vidsel, Sweden: 79°; and, Wittmundhaven, Germany: 82°.. The warmest summer on record is concluding in Anchorage. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will likely finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.7°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will very likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 96%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -8.19 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.174. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. A plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. The second half of the first week of September appears to offer one chance of above to much above normal readings. The second half of the month could be warmer relative to normal (not in necessarily in absolute terms) than the first half. September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 27, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.174 (RMM). The August 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.256. Finally, New York City has an implied 60% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

Following the coolest air mass since last June, temperatures began moderating today. In coming days, readings will return to near or just above normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Much above normal temperatures covered parts of the West. Records included: Aurora, OR: 100°; Eugene, OR: 99°; Hoquiam, WA: 92°; Mount Shasta, CA: 98°; Newport, OR: 86°; Portland, OR: 98°; and, Roseburg, OR: 101°. Medford, OR had reached a near record 105° as of 5 pm PDT. Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat could last through the current week. Select daily records included: Amsterdam: 90° (old record: 80°); Antwerp, Belgium: 93°; De Kooy, Netherlands: 86° (old record: 78°); Deelen, Netherlands: 91°; Diepholz, Germany: 91°; Eindhoven, Netherlands: 93°; Esbjerg, Denmark: 84°; Gilze en Rijen, Netherlands: 93°; Goteborg, Sweden: 81°; Groningen, Netherlands: 91° (old record: 79°); Karup, Denmark: 86° (new August record); Leeuwarden, Netherlands: 90° (old record: 78°); London-Heathrow: 91°; Malmo, Sweden: 86°; Meppen, Germany: 91°; Mildenhall, UK: 90° (old record: 79°); Northolt, UK: 91° (old record: 81°); Orsta-Volda, Norway: 82°; Rotterdam, Netherlands: 90°; Stansted, UK: 90° (old record: 79°); Vlieland, Netherlands: 86° (old record: 74°); Volkel, Netherlands: 91°; Wattisham, UK: 88° (old record: 77°); and, Woensdrecht, Netherlands: 88° (old record: 77°). The warmest summer on record is concluding in Anchorage. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will likely finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.7°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will very likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 89%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -1.88 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.421. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. A plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. The second half of the first week of September appears to offer one chance of above to much above normal readings. The second half of the month could be warmer relative to normal (not in necessarily in absolute terms) than the first half. September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 26, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.257 (RMM). The August 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.189. Finally, New York City has an implied 55% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

Much of the region experienced its coolest temperatures since June. Select low temperatures included: Boston: 57° (lowest since 6/14: 54°) Bridgeport: 57° (lowest since 6/15: 56°) Islip: 59° (lowest since 8/11: 58°) New York City: 61° (lowest since 6/22: 61°) Newark: 59° (lowest since 6/15: 56°) Philadelphia: 61° (lowest since 6/23: 61°) Poughkeepsie: 48° (lowest since 6/12: 47°) In western North America, a period of much above normal temperatures is developing in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. Across the Atlantic Ocean, an extended period of above to much above normal temperatures is underway in Europe. This latest round of heat could last through the current week. Many locations exceeded their daily record high temperatures by 5° or more. Select daily records included: Amsterdam: 86°; Bergen, Norway: 75°; Deelen, Netherlands: 90°; Haugesund, Norway: 77°; Humberside, UK: 88° (old record: 77°); Koksijde, Belgium: 86° (old record: 78°); Kristiansund, Norway: 79° (old record: 70°); Le Touquet, France: 86°; London-Gatwick: 86°; London-Heathrow: 90° (old record: 82°); Marham, UK: 88° (old record: 79°); Northolt, UK: 90° (old record: 79°); Orsta-Volda, Norway: 81° (old record: 70°); Ostend, Belgium: 84° (old record: 76°); Poitiers, France: 97°; Rotterdam: 86°; Stansted, UK: 90° (old record: 81°); Stavanger, Norway: 79°; Vlieland,Netherlands: 82°; Waddington, UK: 88° (old record: 79°); and, Woensdrecht, Netherlands: 88°. In the southern United States, extreme heat again baked parts of New Mexico and Texas. Records included: Abilene, TX: 109°; Carlsbad, NM: 110° (new August record); Lubbock, TX: 109° (new August record); Midland, TX: 113° (new August record); and, Roswell, NM: 111° (new August record). Anchorage is nearing the end of its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.6°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 80%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was +0.18 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.956. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. There is a possibility that September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 25, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.187 (RMM). The August 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.316. Finally, New York City has an implied 54% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

The record is 24 days, which was set in 1903.

The JAXA data suggests otherwise. 1990-2007: Mean Melt: 8.897 million square kilometers (59.4% of mean maximum) 2008-2018: Mean Melt: 9.916 million square kilometers (69.2% of mean maximum)

Do you have a copy of the Ball-Mann court decision? It seems from what was written above, the case was dismissed on procedural grounds and not the merits. Such rulings are not uncommon, as process is a critical element to rule of law. Indeed, as an example, the Supreme Court ruled on the Census case on the basis that the proper procedure/defensible argument (as opposed to a contrived one) had not been furnished in seeking to add a citizenship question to the Census. FYI: Upon looking further into this decision, for which I can’t find the ruling, Mann’s attorney provided a different account: https://mobile.twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/1165677922872635392/photo/1 Looking further into the matter, Michael Mann's data and techniques are all available on his website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/tools/tools.php The Judge's decision very likely had nothing to do with data. As of now (8/26/2019, 5 pm EDT), there's still no publication of that decision.

The science doesn't suggest that in 12 years we will "die." That's a caricature of what the science is actually suggesting: time is somewhat limited if the world is to achieve its 1.5°C goal.

If one is referring to the AOC plan, I strongly oppose it. It contains substantial extraneous provisions that have nothing to do with climate/clean energy. Instead, those provisions would dramatically shift the U.S. away from a market-oriented economy. There are far better ways to approach the issue.

This morning featured temperatures in the 60s in the major cities of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas and 50s outside the cities. Select low temperatures included: Islip: 61° (lowest since 8/12: 60°) New York City: 63° (lowest since 8/11: 63°) Newark: 62° (lowest since 6/24: 62°) Poughkeepsie: 52° (lowest since 8/11: 51°) Tonight will likely feature the lowest temperatures of this cool shot. Some of the guidance suggests that the temperature could fall below 60° in Central Park on Monday morning. The last time the temperature fell below 60° in August in New York City was August 15, 2013 when the temperature fell to 59°. A reading of 60° remains more likely, as the implied probability of a temperature below 60° in Central Park is approximately 40%. The current cool spell will likely last into mid-week. In western North America, a period of much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada over the next day or two. Across the Atlantic Ocean, an extended period of above to much above normal temperatures is underway in Europe. This latest round of heat could last through the upcoming week. Daily record high temperatures included: Benson, UK: 90°; Birmingham, UK: 86°; Brize Norton, UK: 88°; Dresden, Germany: 90°; East Midlands, UK: 86°; Humberside, UK: 82°; London-Gatwick: 88°; London-Heathrow: 91°; Marham, UK: 88°; Northolt, UK: 91°; Satenas, Sweden: 75°; St. Gatien, France: 88°; Stansted, UK: 90°; Stavanger, Norway: 77°; and, Wittering, UK: 88°. Paris also reached a near-record high 90°. In the United States, record heat covered a portion of the Southern United States. Records included: Carlsbad, NM: 108°; Raton, NM: 97°; Midland, TX: 108° (new August record); and, Roswell, NM: 109° (new August record). Anchorage is nearing the end of its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.6°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 73%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -5.28 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.655. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. There is a possibility that September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 24, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.314 (RMM). The August 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.240. Finally, New York City has an implied 64% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

Abstract: The online video-sharing website YouTube is extremely popular globally, also as a tool for information on science and environmental topics. However, only little is known about what kind of information users find when they are searching for information about climate science, climate change, and climate engineering on YouTube. This contribution presents results from an exploratory research project that investigates whether videos found on YouTube adhere to or challenge scientific consensus views. Ten search terms were employed to search for and analyze 200 videos about climate and climate modification topics, which are contested topics in online media. The online anonymization tool Tor has been used for the randomization of the sample and to avoid personalization of the results. A heuristic qualitative classification tool was set up to categorize the videos in the sample. Eighty-nine videos of the 200 videos in the sample are supporting scientific consensus views about anthropogenic climate change, and climate scientists are discussing climate topics with deniers of climate change in four videos in the sample. Unexpectedly, the majority of the videos in the sample (107 videos) supports worldviews that are opposing scientific consensus views: 16 videos deny anthropogenic climate change and 91 videos in the sample propagate straightforward conspiracy theories about climate engineering and climate change. Videos supporting the scientific mainstream view received only slightly more views (16,941,949 views in total) than those opposing the mainstream scientific position (16,939,655 views in total). Consequences for the public communication of climate change and climate engineering are discussed in the second part of the article. The research presented in this contribution is particularly interested in finding out more about strategically distorted communications about climate change and climate engineering in online environments and in critically analyzing them. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcomm.2019.00036/full