donsutherland1

Today was fair but cold in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ongoing colder-than-normal regime will continue through the weekend. A period of light precipitation is likely tomorrow night into Sunday. Little or no snow accumulation (0.5" or less) is likely in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Some freezing rain is possible, with larger amounts north and west of those cities. Additional storms will very likely impact the region next week. Meanwhile, parts of the Northern Plains and Canada experienced a continuation of record and near record cold temperatures from what has been the coldest air mass since February 1994 in parts of that region. Minimum temperatures included: Cut Bank, MT: -38° (old record: -32°, 1936) ***Coldest reading since February 8, 1994*** Estevan, SK: -29° (old record: -28°, 1951) Flin Flon, MB: -45° (old record: -41°, 1981) Gillam, MB: -43° Great Falls, MT: -33 (old record: -21°, 1936) Lynn Lake, MB: -43° (old record: -39°, 2008) Norway House, MB: -44° (old record: -24°, 2008) The Pas, MB: -40° (old record: -38°, 1946) Thompson, MB: -50° (old record: -45°, 1979) Timmins, ON: -31° Williams Lake, BC: -25° (old record: -18°, 1975) Winnipeg: -27° That frigid air will continue to slowly advance south and eastward through this weekend. This will lead to snow and record-breaking cold in Texas. Dallas will likely see temperatures fall to the single digits and likely the coldest levels on record so late in the season. However, this air mass will likely avoid any direct impact on the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. A piece of the air mass could still graze the region at some point next week. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is now rebounding from its lowest levels in nearly eight years. It is forecast to rise sharply in coming days. The latest guidance suggests that the AO could attain positive values for the first time since December 25, 2020 when the AO was +0.226. Whether this development will mark the end of the prolonged period of blocking that has prevailed throughout winter 2020-21, and the evolution toward a sustained milder pattern, remains to be seen. A dramatic increase in the AO has sometimes coincided with storminess. Therefore, the February 14-24 period might offer a window of opportunity for a meaningful storm. That window of opportunity could extend through the end of February should blocking persist or return. Since 1950, there were 11 cases during the January 16-February 28 timeframe that saw the AO rise at least 3 sigma from a minimum value of -4.000 or below within a 7-day period. Four cases saw a major snowstorm in parts of the Middle Atlantic or New England regions within 3 weeks of the AO's reaching its minimum value. The dates of the AO's minimum value for those four cases are January 25, 1958, January 19, 1969, February 15, 1969, and January 16, 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +6.15 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -4.597 today. On February 11 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.131 (RMM). The February 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.075. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the end of the third week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 23.3" snow. In addition, 78% of winters that saw 10" or more snow in New York City during December had measurable snow in March or April vs. the 77% figure for all other winters. However, the subset of the December cases with less than 10" snow in January and more than 10" in February saw 83% of cases with measurable snowfall in March or April. When it came to 6" or more snow in March or April, that's where there was some divergence. For all cases without 10" or more snow in December, 35% had 6" or more snow in March and/or April. For the 10" December cases, that figure was somewhat lower at 30%. For the subset of December cases, it was 50%. The single exception from the subset was winter 2009-10 when just a trace of snow was recorded after February. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be additional measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.1° (3.2° below normal).

Close proximity to the Jamaica Bay.

No. Its streak is 26 days (through yesterday), which ranks as the 41st longest on record.

Yes. That is correct. Climatological Data for New York-Kennedy Airport Area, NY (ThreadEx) - January 1994 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Avg Temperature Avg Temperature Departure HDD CDD Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth Sum 1041 591 - - 1191 0 4.92 7.1 - Average 33.6 19.1 26.3 -6.4 - - - - 0.4 Normal 39.1 26.3 32.7 - 1001 0 3.16 6.3 - 1994-01-01 42 25 33.5 -0.2 31 0 0.02 0.0 1 1994-01-02 51 33 42.0 8.4 23 0 0.03 0.0 0 1994-01-03 35 30 32.5 -0.9 32 0 0.22 0.6 0 1994-01-04 43 24 33.5 0.2 31 0 0.35 0.2 1 1994-01-05 34 22 28.0 -5.2 37 0 T T T 1994-01-06 26 18 22.0 -11.0 43 0 0.01 0.1 0 1994-01-07 32 23 27.5 -5.4 37 0 0.47 0.6 T 1994-01-08 32 17 24.5 -8.3 40 0 0.27 0.1 1 1994-01-09 26 15 20.5 -12.2 44 0 0.00 0.0 1 1994-01-10 26 16 21.0 -11.6 44 0 0.00 0.0 1 1994-01-11 36 17 26.5 -6.1 38 0 0.00 0.0 1 1994-01-12 34 30 32.0 -0.5 33 0 0.45 1.0 T 1994-01-13 39 32 35.5 3.0 29 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-01-14 36 22 29.0 -3.4 36 0 T T 0 1994-01-15 22 8 15.0 -17.4 50 0 T 0.1 0 1994-01-16 16 4 10.0 -22.3 55 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-01-17 45 14 29.5 -2.8 35 0 1.18 0.4 0 1994-01-18 37 6 21.5 -10.8 43 0 0.26 0.7 T 1994-01-19 10 0 5.0 -27.3 60 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-01-20 15 3 9.0 -23.3 56 0 T T T 1994-01-21 23 6 14.5 -17.8 50 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-01-22 33 17 25.0 -7.4 40 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-23 33 20 26.5 -5.9 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-24 47 31 39.0 6.6 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-25 38 33 35.5 3.0 29 0 T T 0 1994-01-26 33 9 21.0 -11.6 44 0 0.28 3.3 2 1994-01-27 34 2 18.0 -14.6 47 0 0.07 T 3 1994-01-28 51 34 42.5 9.8 22 0 1.31 0.0 1 1994-01-29 43 34 38.5 5.7 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-30 36 26 31.0 -1.8 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-31 33 20 26.5 -6.4 38 0 0.00 0.0 0

No. Threshold Search for Minimum Temperature (F) New York-Kennedy Airport Area (NY) JFKthr 9 Lat/Lon/Elev: / / Years: 1948 to 2021 Dates: 01-01 to 12-31 Condition is: Minimum Temperature (F) less than 0 To sort multiple columns, hold SHIFT while clicking on the columns. Date MINT MAXT MEAN PCPN SNOW SNOWD 1961-02-02 -1 19 9.0 0.00 0.0 4 1963-02-08 -2 28 13.0 0.00 0.0 0 1977-01-17 -1 8 3.5 0.00 0.0 7 1982-01-17 -1 22 10.5 0.00 0.0 6 1985-01-21 -2 10 4.0 0.00 0.0 3

That was Dallas. Central Park’s last day was February 14, 2016 with a -1 reading.

Last subzero day: December 23, 1989: -1 degree.

It’s likely a whole combination of factors related to climate change. Rapid Arctic warming has had some impact on the jet stream. The warm oceans impact ridge-trough positions and convection (e.g., the MJO now spends more time in the warmer Maritime Continent Phases). Cold air masses are, in general (not always), less expansive and less severe in magnitude.

JFK was 2.2”.

Morning thoughts... At 7:50 am, a storm was moving away from Virginia. Rain was falling at Norfolk while some snow was reported in Charlottesville. That storm will not impact the Philadelphia to New York City region. Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably cool. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 20s to perhaps lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 28° Newark: 29° Philadelphia: 30° Tomorrow will become mainly cloudy. A system could bring some precipitation to the region tomorrow night and Sunday. Most of the precipitation will be in the form of sleet, freezing rain or rain. Any snowfall amounts will be light, generally a half-inch or less.

It was. The 1899 Arctic outbreak and blizzard is a one-of-a-kind event.

December 23, 1989 when the temperature was -1 degree. The all-time record low is -8, which was set on February 12, 1899.

You’re not missing anything. The core of the cold won’t reach us.

February 4, 1996: 8 degrees

That’s what the soundings are currently showing.

A weak system brought a light snowfall to much of the region from New York City's nearby northern suburbs southward. Another weak system will pass too far to the south tonight into tomorrow to bring any snowfall to most of the region. With today's 1.3" snowfall, New York City's Central Park's monthly snowfall has increased to 21.2" making February 2021 its first first month with 20" or more snow since 27.9" fell in January 2016 and its first February with 20" or more snow since 2014 when 29.0" was measured. 5/17 (29%) of New York City's February 20" cases have occurred since 2000. Philadelphia picked up 3.1" snowfall bringing its February total to 10.1". That makes this month its first month with 10" or more snow since March 2018 when 15.2" was recorded and its first February with 10" or more snow since 2014 when 22.4" fell. Frigid air will continue to slowly advance eastward into this weekend. However, this bitterly cold air mass will likely deliver only a glancing blow with single-digit cold avoiding New York City but affecting some areas outside of New York City and Newark. Its largest impact could be the possibility of a period of freezing rain on Sunday from Philadelphia to New York City and their suburbs. Any snowfall accumulations in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City will likely be light. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is now severely negative and at its lowest levels in nearly eight years. It is forecast to rise sharply toward mid-month. The latest guidance suggests that the AO could attain positive values for the first time since December 25, 2020 when the AO was +0.226. Whether this development will mark the end of the prolonged period of blocking that has prevailed throughout winter 2020-21 remains to be seen. A dramatic increase in the AO has sometimes coincided with storminess. Therefore, the February 14-24 period might offer a window of opportunity for a meaningful storm. Details about possible storm tracks or precipitation types are premature at this point. That window of opportunity could extend through the end of February should blocking persist or return. Since 1950, there were 11 cases during the January 16-February 28 timeframe that saw the AO rise at least 3 sigma from a minimum value of -4.000 or below within a 7-day period. Four cases saw a major snowstorm in parts of the Middle Atlantic or New England regions within 3 weeks of the AO's reaching its minimum value. The dates of the AO's minimum value for those four cases are January 25, 1958, January 19, 1969, February 15, 1969, and January 16, 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +11.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -5.314 today. That is the lowest AO figure since March 21, 2013 when the AO was -5.399. On February 10 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.075 (RMM). The February 9-adjusted amplitude was 2.248. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the end of the third week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 23.3" snow. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.1° (3.2° below normal).

A photo following the light snowfall overnight:

No report, yet. I suspect we’ll know within the next hour or so.

Morning thoughts... Light to moderate snow was still falling over parts of central and southern New Jersey and into southeastern Pennsylvania this morning. Philadelphia had picked up 3.1” snow. In Nassau County, Elmont (1 WNW) had received 4.2”. There will likely be some breaks in the clouds and sunshine for a time, especially from New York City northward. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 35° Newark: 34° Philadelphia: 35° Tomorrow will be partly cloudy. Another system could bring some light snow to parts of the region on Sunday.

A light snowfall is possible late tonight into tomorrow. Accumulations should generally reach 1" or less in New York City's nearby northern and western suburbs, 1"-3" in New York City, and 2"-4" across parts of central New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia. A blend of the guidance suggests the following snowfall amounts: New York City: 1.8"; Newark: 2.1"; and, Philadelphia: 3.4" As a result, New York City's Central Park will record its first month with 20" or more snow since 27.9" fell in January 2016 and its first February with 20" or more snow since 2014 when 29.0" was measured. Philadelphia will likely see its first month with 10" or more snow since March 2018 when 15.2" was recorded and its first February with 10" or more snow since 2014 when 22.4" fell. Another weak system will pass even farther south on Friday. Today saw more near record and record cold in parts of western Canada and also Montana. Select low temperatures: Cut Bank, MT: -38° (old record: -33°, 1939) ***Coldest day since February 8, 1994*** Dease Lake, BC: -40° (old record: -35°, 2017) Havre, MT: -33° Medicine Hat, AB: -27° (-17°, 2014) Prince George, BC: -35° (old record: -32°, 1948) Thompson, MB: -44° That frigid air mass will slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions around mid-month. There is some uncertainty as to whether this air mass will move directly into the region sending temperatures into the single digits even in New York City or merely pass nearby delivering a glancing blow with single-digit cold avoiding New York City but affecting areas outside of New York City and Newark. The probability of the latter outcome has continued to increase. It is more likely than not that the latter scenario will play out. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is now severely negative and at its lowest levels in nearly eight years. It is forecast to rise sharply toward mid-month. A dramatic increase in the AO has sometimes coincided with storminess. Therefore, the February 14-24 period might offer a window of opportunity for a meaningful storm. Details about possible storm tracks or precipitation types are premature at this point. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +20.03 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -5.152 today. That is the lowest AO figure since the AO was -5.240 on March 22, 2013. The last time the AO was at -5.000 or below in February was February 14, 2010 when the AO was -5.132. On February 9 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.246 (RMM). The February 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.143. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the middle of the third week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 22.0" snow. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.3° (3.0° below normal).

There was no LGA or JFK at that time. However, Flushing reported a low of -14 degrees.

Probably 2” or maybe 3”.

The HREF bumped up. 1”-2” amounts are possible in NYC with the higher figure more likely in parts of Queens, Brooklyn and Staten Island than Central Park.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and somewhat colder than normal. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 32° Newark: 34° Philadelphia: 35° A weak system will pass eastward across the Middle Atlantic region. It could bring a small accumulation of snow to New York City and its nearby northern suburbs. The northward extent of 1”-3” snows will likely be across central New Jersey.

A weak system tracked somewhat farther to the north than had been modeled. As a result, accumulating snow was confined to the north and west of New York City and its nearby suburbs. The 0z HREF did well to catch the shift in snowfall. Following the departure of this weak system, tomorrow should be partly sunny. Temperatures will run several degrees below normal. Afterward, another light snowfall is possible on Thursday and/or Friday particularly from central Pennsylvania to central New Jersey and southward. Meanwhile, parts of western Canada experienced near record cold and record cold temperatures. Minimum temperatures included: Burwash Landing, YT: -49°;Carmacks, YT: -56° (old record: -54°, 2008); Dease Lake, BC: -43° (old record: -28°, 2017); Faro, YT: -50° (old record: -48°, 1979); Norman Wells, NT: -48° Whitehorse, YT: -44° That frigid air mass will slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions around mid-month. There is some uncertainty as to whether this air mass will move directly into the region sending temperatures into the single digits even in New York City or merely pass nearby delivering a glancing blow with single-digit cold avoiding New York City but affecting areas outside of New York City and Newark. The probability of the latter outcome has increased in recent days. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is now severely negative and at its lowest levels in more than five years. It is forecast to rise sharply toward mid-month. A dramatic increase in the AO has sometimes coincided with storminess. Therefore, the February 14-24 period might offer a window of opportunity for a meaningful storm. Details about possible storm tracks or precipitation types are premature at this point. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +30.93 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -4.618 today. That is the lowest AO figure since the AO was -4.898 on January 16, 2016. On February 8 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.142 (RMM). The February 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.121. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the middle of the third week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 22.0" snow. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.3°.