donsutherland1

As an extreme air mass is poised to set temperature records across the New York City Metro Area during July 1-3, it is again worth noting that the strong cooling effect of Central Park's overgrowth of trees will make it exceedingly difficult for Central Park to reach 100°. It is likely that JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and possibly Bridgeport, Islip, and White Plains could all reach 100°. Much of the region will see the heat peak at 100°-105°. Last June, the New York City area experienced its highest June monthly temperatures on record. JFK Airport topped out at 102° (old record: 99°, 1952, 1959, and 1964). LaGuardia Airport reached 101°, tying the mark set in 1952 and tied in 2017). Newark reached 103° (tying the record set in 2021). Bridgeport reached 97° (tying the record set in 2008). Islip topped out at 101° (demolishing the old mark of 96° from 1966 and 1994). White Plains reached 98° (tying the record set in 1952 and tied in 1953). A shaded Central Park reached just 99°. Based on a statistical regression equation (coefficient of determination: 0.941), for the 30-year period preceding the excessive tree growth (1966-1995), Central Park actually hit 100° on two days. Its peak temperature would have been 102° on June 24th, also setting a new monthly record (old record: 101°, 1934 and 1966). For good reason, homogenization is applied to long-term records to account for changes such as the tree growth that has been permitted to dampen Central Park's summer high temperatures. IMO, homogenization should be applied on a daily basis, given the persistent lack of interest in addressing the documented problem (as noted on NOAA's climate site inventory). How has tree growth affected Central Park? Even as average high temperatures during Summer (June, July, and August) have increased at JFK Airport and LaGuardia Airport during 1961-1990 to 1991-2020, they have decreased at Central Park. June Mean High Temperatures: July Mean High Temperatures: August Mean High Temperatures: Through June 28th, Central Park's mean June temperature is running 0.5° below that of JFK Airport, even as JFK is affected by the sea breeze. Only 2015 (0.03° margin) had a warmer mean June high at JFK airport. To date, Central Park's highest monthly temperature is 91°. Here's how it compares with the other sites in the New York City area: Bridgeport: 91°; Islip: 94°; JFK Airport: 96°; LaGuardia Airport: 98°; Newark: 97°; and, White Plains: 92°. Based on the statistical assessment, Central Park's monthly high is likely 97° (June 11-12). In terms of 90° or above days, Central Park stands at 2 days in June. Here's how that compares with the other sites in the New York City area: Bridgeport: 1 day; Islip: 2 days; JFK Airport: 2 days; LaGuardia Airport: 6 days; Newark: 7 days; and, White Plains: 2 days. The statistical estimate suggests 4-6 days are likely to have occurred this month.

Congratulations. I hope all goes well.

A warming trend has gotten underway. The warmth will continue to build through the remainder of June before culminating in a severe heatwave to start July. Some of the guidance suggests that the heat could rival that of early July 1966. Much of the region will likely experience its highest temperatures so far this summer. Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will all likely see the temperatures peak at or above 100°. Washington, DC could make a run at its all-time record of 106°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -11.81 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.126 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2 (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The historic June 2026 heatwave finally began to release its grip on France. Nevertheless, a few locations set monthly and all-time records. Germany (41.7C) and Czechia (41.9C) also set all-time heat records. As a result of the heatwave, June 2026 accounts for the most all-time records for the month of June and 2026 accounts for the second most all-time records for any calendar year. The clustering of all-time records in recent years is consistent with a warming climate from fossil fuel-driven anthropogenic climate change.

With the temperature rising into the lower 80s, it was a great day to see some summer scenes at the New York Botanical Garden.

For reference:

It's probably overdone, but Central Park might make a run for 100 on at least one day. I think ISP, JFK, LGA, EWR will probably have one or more such days.

July 4th thread. Its numbers are unreal for NYC.

A warming trend will commence tomorrow. June will conclude with above normal temperatures. The guidance is increasingly suggesting the potential for extreme heat to open July. Some of the guidance suggests that the heat could rival that of early July 1966. Much of the region will likely experience its highest temperatures so far this summer. Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will all likely see the temperatures peak at or above 100°. Washington, DC could make a run at its all-time record of 106°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -19.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.016 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.3 (1.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It’s a metaphor, not literal description.

June 2026 in France and much of Europe isn't merely "hot." Hot is a beach day, lemonade, and open windows. This is different. Stoked by rising atmospheric greenhouse gases, the air is seemingly breathing fire in one's face. The shade is failing to offer much relief. Today, France saw additional all-time records. The Czech Republic, Denmark, and Germany set all-time national records.

The strong and strengthening PMM+ is noteworthy. It will likely have an influence on the upcoming seasons.

On that, I also agree. Summer 2026 is becoming much like Summer 2019 with wave after wave of intense heat in Europe.

The forecast heat dome is looking more and more impressive. The NBM shows a peak of 105° +/- 5° at Washington, DC. The all-time mark is 106°. This situation will merit watching.

It will be mainly cloudy tomorrow. Some showers are possible tonight into tomorrow. A warming trend could commence on Sunday. The guidance increasingly suggests that hot weather could return to conclude June and start July. Some of the guidance suggests that the region could see its highest temperatures so far this summer during the middle of next week. Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will all likely see the temperatures peak at or above 100°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -13.92 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.710 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.4 (1.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Today was another day of crushing inescapable heat in much of Europe. Saarbrücken, Germany (41.3C/106.3F) and Basel, Switzerland (38.8C/101.8F) set new national all-time heat records. Locations in France also set additional all-time records. Santon Downham (37.3C/99.1F) set a national UK June record.

Excerpts from World Weather Attribution concerning Europe's record-breaking June heatwave: Fossil fuel emissions have rapidly worsened European heatwaves in just a few decades Over the region studied this heatwave is the most severe ever recorded. In 1976, when some of the previous European records were set, the 2026 temperatures would have been virtually impossible to occur in June, while also highly unlikely at any time of the year. In 2003, the first major heatwave of this century, daytime heat like this would still have been very rare, about 10 times less likely than today, while nighttime temperatures such as this June would have been more than a hundred times less likely in 2003. Across large parts of Western Europe, June is warming faster than any other month. In addition, daily maximum temperatures are warming faster than night time temperatures, though both are warming much faster than global warming. The hottest daily temperatures are warming at about triple the rate of global warming and night time temperatures at about twice the rate. Many capital cities are experiencing not only their hottest June 3-day period but also the hottest three-day period since 1950, according to the ERA5 dataset. However, due to global warming, these very high temperatures are now expected regularly during the summer months in many capitals. This means that a similar heatwave in June would have been about 3.5°C cooler during the day in 1976 and about 2°C cooler in 2003. The nighttime temperatures would have been about 2.4°C cooler in June 1976 and about 1.3°C cooler in June 2003. This June 2026 heatwave occurred under a circulation pattern broadly similar to historical analogues – Southerly Flow. However, a similar circulation pattern now produces significantly hotter temperatures than it did in the mid-20th century because the climate baseline has warmed... This summer shows that at 1.4°C of global warming, extreme heat is already reaching the limits of our societies’ ability to cope. Our analysis here shows that intense heat is increasing rapidly even in living memory, with such events tens to hundreds of times more likely since only 2003 and virtually impossible just 50 years ago. A rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is critical if we are to avoid even higher temperatures and their consequences in the future. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/fossil-fuel-emissions-have-rapidly-worsened-european-heatwaves-in-just-a-few-decades/

A shower or thundershower is possible tonight into early tomorrow. Afterward, tomorrow will be pleasantly warm with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 80s. Some showers are possible tomorrow night and then again Friday night or Saturday. A warming trend could commence on Sunday. The guidance increasingly suggests that hot weather could return to conclude June and start July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -18.28 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.424 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.4 (1.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Today was another day of furnace-like heat in France, Jersey, and the UK. The extreme heat will shift eastward over the next few days.

The Paris-Montouris station, for which records go back to 1872, has recorded its first case of two consecutive 40°C (104°F) or above days. Paris-Jardin du Luxembourg topped out at 41.2°C (106.2°F). Jersey (Maison St. Louis: 39.3°C/102.7°F) and Switzerland (Basel: 38.0°C/100.4°F) set national all-time records. The UK (Merrifield: 36.7°C/98.1F) set a national June monthly record.

The official announcement from Météo-France: Translation: June 24, 2026 France has just experienced its hottest day ever recorded. Across the country, the average temperature over 24 hours reached 30°C, exceeding the 29.9°C measured... the day before, which was already the hottest day ever recorded since measurements began in 1947.

It showed up on the list of all-time records, so I noted it.

Tomorrow and Friday will be pleasantly warm days with highs in the lower 80s. Some showers are possible tomorrow night and then again Friday night or Saturday. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. Some of the guidance suggests that hot weather could return to conclude June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -22.92 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.406 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.5 (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Paris, like NYC, has multiple sites. I referenced one such site.

I agree. Indeed, one location in coastal France beat its all-time record that was set just yesterday by 4.0C (7.2F).