donsutherland1

Another cold front will be crossing the region on Friday. Ahead of the front, warmer air will push northward. As a result, the temperature will hold nearly steady Thursday night and could begin to rise before sunrise.

A weak cold front will move across the region tomorrow. Behind it, Thursday will turn somewhat cooler.

Under abundant sunshine, the mercury surged into the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the region. High temperatures included: Allentown: 69° Baltimore: 75° Boston: 70° Bridgeport: 64° Hartford: 70° Islip: 70° New York City: 68° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 71° Portland: 66° Providence: 71° Washington, DC: 73° Newark reached 70° for the 176th time this year. The old record was 173 days, which was set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010. With the exception of Thursday, the unseasonable warmth will persist through Friday. Nevertheless, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. A cold front will bring some rain Thursday night into Friday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Afterward, it will turn noticeably cooler for the weekend and into next week. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 9 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +20.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.143 today. On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.113 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.184 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.6° (0.4° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 70° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 56.2° Newark: 30-Year: 57.3°; 15-Year: 57.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.3°; 15-Year: 58.2° Temperatures will average above to much above normal through much of the week.

In spirit of the clocks' being turned back one hour on Sunday, the seasonal clock seemed to have been turned back today. Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the 60s and even 70s in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 72° Boston: 60° Bridgeport: 67° Harrisburg: 67° Hartford: 64° Islip: 65° New York City: 63° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 67° Portland, ME: 61° Providence: 64° Washington, DC: 70° Unseasonable warmth will persist through Friday. Nevertheless, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. A cold front will bring some rain later Friday perhaps into Saturday. Afterward, it will turn noticeably cooler. During the second half of October, the Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for that timeframe where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a four consecutive days. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 7 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +20.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.169 today. On November 6 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.184 (RMM). The November 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.121 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.7° (0.3° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 63° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 66° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 56.6° Newark: 30-Year: 57.7°; 15-Year: 57.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.7°; 15-Year: 58.6° Temperatures will average above to much above normal through much of the week.

A warming trend will commence tomorrow. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Dry conditions will likely persist until late next week. Ensemble members are clustered around the November 12-14 for a possible break in the dry weather. Cooler weather could follow. During the second half of October, the Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for that timeframe where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a four consecutive days. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 7 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +17.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.584 today. On November 5 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.124 (RMM). The November 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.983 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

Yes. It was at and below 32.

A warming trend will commence tomorrow. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Dry conditions will likely persist until late next week. Ensemble members are clustered around the November 12-14 for a possible break in the dry weather. Cooler weather could follow. During the second half of October, the Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for that timeframe where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a four consecutive days. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 5 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +3.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.002 today. On November 4 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.985 (RMM). The November 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.685 (RMM).

The low at JFK was 36.

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and cool. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 57° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.2°; 15-Year: 57.3° Newark: 30-Year: 58.4°; 15-Year: 58.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.4°; 15-Year: 59.3° Warmer air will begin to overspread the region tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be another fair but cool day. Afterward, a warming trend will commence. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Dry conditions will likely persist until late next week. Ensemble members are clustered around the November 12-14 for a possible break in the dry weather. Cooler weather could follow. During the second half of October, the Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for that timeframe where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a four consecutive days. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 5 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +5.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.636 today. On November 3 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.687 (RMM). The November 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.431 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and cool. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 51° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 54° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.6°; 15-Year: 57.6° Newark: 30-Year: 58.7°; 15-Year: 59.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.8°; 15-Year: 59.7° Warmer weather will develop on Sunday and continue into next week.

An unseasonably cool air mass remains in place. As a result, temperatures will run well below normal through the rest of the week. Dry weather will also persist. A warming trend will commence on Sunday. This warmth could carry over into the start of the third week of November. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. During the second half of October, the Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for that timeframew where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a four consecutive days. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 2 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +12.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.109 today. On November 2 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.434 (RMM). The November 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.474 (RMM).

No.

Morning thoughts… Yesterday, Binghamton picked up its first measurable snowfall of the season with 0.1” of snow. Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 49° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 52° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 58.0° Newark: 30-Year: 59.1°; 15-Year: 59.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.1°; 15-Year: 60.1° Mainly fair and cool weather will continue through the week.

Probably the second half of November.

An unseasonably cool air mass now covers the region.tomorrow morning will likely be the coldest morning so far in much of the region. Even Central Park will likely see the temperature dip below 40° for the first time this season. Temperatures will run well below normal through the rest of the week. Overall, mainly dry conditions should prevail through the rest of the week. Mount Pocono recorded its latest first freeze on record yesterday. The prior record late first freeze occurred on November 1, 1920. The cool weather won't be sustained. A warming trend will likely commence during the second week of the month. This warmth could carry over into the start of the third week of November. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. The latest guidance shows the PNA descending to neutral levels by mid-month. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 2 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +11.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.422 today. On November 1 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.480 (RMM). The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.610 (RMM).

Probably not. The temperature there will probably be a bit too high.

It’s defined as a “few” hours at or below 28. MPO had a hard freeze.

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly cloudy and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 50° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 51° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 58.2°; 15-Year: 58.3° Newark: 30-Year: 59.5°; 15-Year: 59.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.5°; 15-Year: 60.4° Mainly fair and cool weather will continue through the week.

Yes. Tonight or tomorrow night could see the first upper 30s there. MPO also recorded its first freeze yesterday. The old record latest first freeze was November 1, 1920.

The coldest weather so far this season is now overspreading the region. By the end of the week, much of the region outside New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia will likely have seen one or more freezes and New York City's Central Park could see at least one sub-50° high temperature. Overall, mainly dry conditions should prevail through the rest of the week. Mount Pocono had no freeze through November 1, which assures that 2021 will record the latest first freeze on record there, either this evening or tomorrow morning. The prior record late first freeze occurred on November 1, 1920. The cool weather won't be sustained. A warming trend will likely commence during the second week of the month. This warmth could carry over into the start of the third week of November. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. The latest guidance shows the PNA descending to neutral levels by mid-month. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 2 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +5.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.532 today. On October 31 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.624 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.796 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and cool. Some widely scattered showers are possible during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50 in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 52° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 58.6°; 15-Year: 58.7° Newark: 30-Year: 59.8°; 15-Year: 60.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 60.8° Mainly fair and even cooler weather will continue through the week.

Their frustration is reasonable. Politicians ignore their interests and treat their interests as being expendable.