donsutherland1

The weather will remain fairly unsettled into at least the first half of the weekend. Showers, thundershowers, and periods of rain tomorrow. It will likely be a bit warmer. Overall, temperatures should remain fairly close to normal. No excessive heat appears likely through the weekend. Excessive heat will develop in the desert Southwest by Thursday or Friday. Phoenix will likely see its first 110° or above temperatures of the year. During 1961-90, Phoenix averaged 15.9 110°+ days per year. For the 1991-20 base period, that number has increased to 20.8 days. During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around June 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +28.54 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.421 today. On June 5 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.946 (RMM). The June 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.179 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.7° (0.7° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Clouds will increase. Showers and periods of rain are likely overnight. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 81° Additional rain is likely tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 77.2°; 15-Year: 77.2° Newark: 30-Year: 79.1°; 15-Year: 79.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 80.7°; 15-Year: 81.0°

Anchorage just experienced its warmest first five days of June on record. The mean temperature of 63.6° surpassed the old mark by 3.1°. Some charts:

The weather will become somewhat more unsettled over the next several days. Temperatures should remain fairly close to normal. No excessive heat appears likely through the weekend. Excessive heat is likely to develop in the desert Southwest late in the week. Phoenix will likely see its first 110° or above temperatures of the year. During 1961-90, Phoenix averaged 15.9 110°+ days per year. For the 1991-20 base period, that number has increased to 20.8 days. During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around June 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +31.35 today. That surpassed the daily record of 26.50, which was set in 2008. It was also the 10th highest daily figure on record for June. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.776 today. On June 4 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.181 (RMM). The June 3-adjusted amplitude was 2.011 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 81° Newark: 84° Philadelphia: 84° Clouds will increase tomorrow. There could be some late day or evening showers. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 76.9°; 15-Year: 77.0° Newark: 30-Year: 78.8°; 15-Year: 79.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 80.4°; 15-Year: 80.7°

Abundant sunshine and close to seasonable temperatures will again prevail tomorrow. Afterward, the weather will grow somewhat more unsettled. No excessive heat appears likely through at least most of next week. Excessive heat is likely to develop in the desert Southwest late in the week. Phoenix will likely see its first 110° or above temperatures of the year. During 1961-90, Phoenix averaged 15.9 110°+ days per year. For the 1991-20 base period, that number has increased to 20.8 days. During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around May 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +23.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.094 today. On June 3 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.010 (RMM). The June 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.994 (RMM).

Yes, July 1955 held the record until July 1999.

Morning thoughts… It will be sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 81° Philadelphia: 82° Fair weather with near seasonable temperatures will continue through tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 76.6°; 15-Year: 76.7° Newark: 30-Year: 78.4°; 15-Year: 78.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 80.1°; 15-Year: 80.4°

Abundant sunshine and close to seasonable temperatures will prevail through at least early next week. Tomorrow will likely be the coolest day. No excessive heat appears likely through at least most of next week. Excessive heat is likely to develop in the desert Southwest late next week. Phoenix will likely see its first 110° or above temperatures of the year. During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around May 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +12.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.390 today. The old daily record was -1.919, which was set in 1984. On June 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.992 (RMM). The June 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.915 (RMM).

From Twitter: “Disappearing” the warming. The trick: Use the model’s 1991-2020 baseline without disclosing that baseline is much warmer than those used by the major climate records (GISS, NCDC, Berkeley, HadCrut, etc.). What appears as normal is actually well above normal in the climate record.

No. They are all over the place. Most 95-degree readings: Bridgeport: 8, 1949 Islip: 7, 1999 New York City-JFK: 10, 2010 New York City-LGA: 14, 1955 New York City-NYC: 16, 1955 Newark: 25, 1993

At Central Park, July 1999 (81.4) is the warmest month. 2010 was 81.3, but the actual figure was likely higher due to the trees shading the instruments.

Morning thoughts… It will be sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 81° Newark: 85° Philadelphia: 86° Fair weather with near seasonable temperatures will continue into early next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 76.3°; 15-Year: 76.5° Newark: 30-Year: 78.1°; 15-Year: 78.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.7°; 15-Year: 80.2°

Yes. It had 16 such days. 1988 is second with 14. That’s at Central Park.

Less than 2 years after Anchorage’s historic summer, Anchorage has recorded its earliest streak of 8 consecutive 70-degree days (May 27-June 3). The prior record was set during June 26-July 3, 2019. Today’s preliminary 78-degree high was the earliest such temperature on record. The previous mark was set on June 10, 1995. Meanwhile, Juneau saw its earliest 3 consecutive 80-degree days (June 1-3). The old record was set during June 5-7, 1980.

The weekend into early next week will feature abundant sunshine and close to seasonable temperatures. Sunday will likely be the coolest day. No excessive heat appears likely through at least most of next week. During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around May 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +1.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.756 today. The previous daily record low was -1.770, which was set in 1985. On June 1 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.913 (RMM). The May 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.912 (RMM).

With a high temperature of 90° as of 4 pm CDT, Galveston has now had 6 consecutive days with high temperatures of 90° or above. The 5/29-6/3 period is the earliest such stretch of 6 consecutive days. The old record was 5/31-6/5/1875.

1955 also saw the kind of strong blocking currently in place during the first 10 days of June.

Morning thoughts… Clouds, showers, and mist will give way to increasing sunshine. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 81° Philadelphia: 83° Fair weather with near seasonable temperatures will continue into early next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 76.0°; 15-Year: 76.2° Newark: 30-Year: 77.8°; 15-Year: 78.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.4°; 15-Year: 79.9°

A cold front triggered heavy thunderstorms this evening producing highway flooding in parts of the New York City area and Westchester County. A few more showers and thundershowers are possible overnight into tomorrow morning. Afterward, a period of more seasonable temperatures will follow. During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around May 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was -13.57 today. That was the second consecutive day on which the SOI was below 0. The last time that happened was during February 13-16 when the SOI was negative for four consecutive days. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.646 today. The old daily record was -1.652 from 1993. On May 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.910 (RMM). The May 30-adjusted amplitude was 2.033 (RMM).

With a high temperature of 92° as of 2 pm CDT, Galveston has now had 5 consecutive days with high temperatures of 90° or above. The 5/29-6/2 period is the earliest such stretch of 5 consecutive days. The old record was 5/31-6/4/1875.

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy with afternoon or evening thunderstorms, some of which could be strong or severe. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 85° Fair weather with near seasonable temperatures will develop tomorrow and continue into early next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 75.7°; 15-Year: 76.0° Newark: 30-Year: 77.4°; 15-Year: 77.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.1°; 15-Year: 79.6°

In the wake of the passage of a strong backdoor cold front, temperatures in the northern Middle Atlantic region were around 20°-30° cooler than yesterday's highs. The heat continued from Philadelphia and southward. Following overnight showers and thundershowers, tomorrow will be warmer again with readings returning to the upper 70s and at least lower 80s in much of the northern Middle Atlantic region. However, a cold front will trigger thunderstorms, some of which can be strong. Afterward, a period of more seasonable temperatures will follow. During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around May 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was -4.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.641 today. That breaks the previous record low of -1.956 from 1975. On May 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.035 (RMM). The May 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.909 (RMM).

The impact of climate change can be seen from Galveston's monthly temperature records. None of Galveston's cold monthly records occurred during or after 2000. In contrast, 9 of the 12 warm monthly records occurred since 2000; 8 of 12 occurred since 2010; and, 4 of 12 have occurred since 2020. In terms of annual records, the coldest year was 1979 with a mean temperature of 67.7°. The coldest year since 2000 was 2010 with a mean temperature of 70.2°. 2010 ranked as the 72nd coldest year overall. The warmest year was 2017 with a mean temperature of 74.4°. All of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2000. For perspective, the 2000s currently account for 15.1% of Galveston’s climate record (May 1874 through May 2022).

SSTs near Galveston were running 3-4 degrees above normal.