donsutherland1

Morning thoughts… After a very cold start, it will be partly sunny and somewhat milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 41° Newark: 42° Philadelphia: 45° The warmup will continue through Thursday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.5°; 15-Year: 55.1° Newark: 30-Year: 55.4°; 15-Year: 56.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.6°; 15-Year: 58.3°

April 1915 had 10".

An Arctic air mass seemingly turned the calendar back several pages to January. Under bright sunshine coupled with some clouds and a few passing flurries, the mercury rose into the lower and middle 30s across the region. At New York City, the high was 33°, which was the coldest high temperature this late in the season since April 7, 1982 when the high was 30°. At Newark, the high of 35° was the coldest high since April 7, 1982 when the high was 30°. At Philadelphia, the high of 36° was the coldest high since April 7, 1982 when the temperature also topped out at 36°. Record low maximum temperatures were set or tied at locations including: Allentown: 31° (old record: 37°, 1959, 1966, and 1996) Binghamton: 18° (old record: 23°, 1966) Boston: 33° (tied record set in 1893) Bridgeport: 32° (old record: 35°, 1959 and 1966) Hartford: 31° (old record: 34°, 1923, 1926, 1937, 1959, and 1966) Islip: 33° (old record: 35°, 1966) Mount Pocono, PA: 21° (old record: 24°, 1937) New York City-JFK: 34° (old record: 37°, 1959) New York City-LGA: 32° (old record: 36°, 1966) New York City-NYC: 33° (old record: 34°, 1893) Newark: 35° (tied record set in 1937) Poughkeepsie: 31° (old record: 35°, 1939 and 1959) Providence: 34° (tied record set in 1926) Scranton: 27° (old record: 28°, 1937) Worcester: 27° (old record: 28°, 1966) At Binghamton, the 18° high was the lowest maximum temperature on record this late in the season. The old record was 21°, which was set on April 4, 1975 and tied on April 7, 1982. The previous latest high temperature below 20° occurred on March 22, 1959 when the high was 19°. The previous latest 18° high temperature occurred on March 21, 1988 when the temperature reached 18°. Tomorrow will again start with low temperatures in the lower and middle 20s in New York City and Philadelphia with teens in some areas outside the cities. The afternoon will turn milder as the thermometer pushes into the 40s. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are: New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24) Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25) Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +6.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.912 today. On March 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.111 (RMM). The March 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.635 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.4° above normal).

Morning thoughts... As of 6 am, low temperatures included: New York City: 23° (coldest this late in the season since April 5, 1995) Newark: 23° (coldest this late in the season since April 5, 1995) Philadelphia: 26° (coldest this late in the season since March 29, 2015) At Binghamton, the temperature was 12°, which was just 1° above the daily record set in 1975. Today will be variably cloudy and unseasonably cold. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. The temperature will rise into the upper 30s in southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 34° Newark: 34° Philadelphia: 38° Tomorrow will start cold but see the mercury rise into the 40s during the afternoon. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.1°; 15-Year: 54.7° Newark: 30-Year: 55.0°; 15-Year: 55.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.2°; 15-Year: 57.9°

Tomorrow will be blustery and unseasonably cold. Some snow flurries and snow showers are possible. Maximum temperatures in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia could be held to their lowest levels for March 28th and later since at least April 8, 2003. The morning low temperature could start in the lower and middle 20s. Some teens are possible in the suburbs. Tuesday will again see low temperatures fall well into the 20s in New York City and Philadelphia with teens in some areas outside the cities. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are: New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24) Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25) Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, as occurred this year, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° Actual data coupled with modeling for the rest of March show that all three cities will wind up with a colder than normal March 22-31 period. In New York City, the average will likely come out near 42.3°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +11.49 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.256 today. On March 25 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.635 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.099 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.3° (2.5° above normal).

Apparently, it seems that Joe Bastardi backs Russian aggression against Ukraine in suggesting that a possible guest appearance by Ukrainian President Zelensky will be the reason “no one” watches the Academy Awards. Zelensky is a heroic and courageous figure who has galvanized the free world in his leadership during Russia’s invasion. The link:

There was a burst of graupel in Larchmont that wet the streets a short time ago.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and breezy. A snow shower or even squall is possible in parts of the region during the afternoon or evening as an Arctic front moves through. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 47° Newark: 48° Philadelphia: 48° It will turn much colder tonight and temperatures will rise no higher than the lower or middle 30s tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.7°; 15-Year: 54.3° Newark: 30-Year: 54.6°; 15-Year: 55.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.8°; 15-Year: 57.5°

An Arctic air mass is poised to invade the region. The frigid air will begin to move into the region tomorrow. Parts of the area could see some snow showers or even a snow squall that could briefly whiten the ground. Monday and Tuesday will see low temperatures fall well into the 20s in New York City and Philadelphia with teens in some areas outside the cities. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are: New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24) Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25) Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, as occurred this year, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° Actual data coupled with modeling for the rest of March show that all three cities will wind up with a colder than normal March 22-31 period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +5.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.113 today. On March 24 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.098 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.218 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.5° (2.7° above normal).

ISP had 16”. There was an area of < 10” that included BDR, JFK, LGA, and NYC. I suspect subsidence contributed to those lower amounts, as higher amounts were recorded to the east and west. If there wasn’t such an area of reduced amounts, the argument about measurements might have had greater validity. JFK had a low of 20.

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy with near seasonable temperatures. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 55° Noticeably colder air will arrive tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.3°; 15-Year: 53.9° Newark: 30-Year: 54.2°; 15-Year: 55.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.4°; 15-Year: 57.1°

No. NYC had a low of 21.

The ongoing generally warmer than normal pattern will likely conclude during the weekend. A fairly sharp but short-lived cold shot is likely as a very cold air mass overspreads the region on Sunday. The arrival of the cold air could produce snow flurries and perhaps snow showers in parts of the region. Monday and Tuesday could see low temperatures fall into the 20s in New York City and Philadelphia. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are: New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24) Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25) Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, as occurred this year, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° Actual data coupled with modeling for the rest of March show that all three cities will wind up with a colder than normal March 22-31 period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was -1.72 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.635 today. On March 23 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.219 (RMM). The March 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.321 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.7° (2.9° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will become partly cloudy and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 62° Philadelphia: 63° Noticeably colder air will arrive this weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 52.9°; 15-Year: 53.6° Newark: 30-Year: 53.8°; 15-Year: 54.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.0°; 15-Year: 56.7°

Overnight, it will be mostly cloudy. Some periods of rain and showers rain possible. The sun will likely return as the day progresses tomorrow. The ongoing generally warmer than normal pattern will likely conclude during the weekend. Nevertheless, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There is growing potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. The possibility of a fairly sharp but short-lived cold shot has increased on the guidance in recent days. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +4.55 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.162 today. On March 22 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.314 (RMM). The March 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.652 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.9° (3.1° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy with periods of rain and showers. The afternoon will turn milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 63° Noticeably colder air will arrive this weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 52.1°; 15-Year: 52.8° Newark: 30-Year: 53.1°; 15-Year: 54.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.2°; 15-Year: 55.9°

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with periods of rain. It will turn milder with readings climbing into the 50s. The ongoing generally warmer than normal pattern will likely conclude during the weekend. Nevertheless, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There is growing potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. The possibility of a fairly sharp but short-lived cold shot has increased on the guidance in recent days. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +6.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.209 today. On March 21 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.646 (RMM). The March 20-adjusted amplitude was 2.170 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (3.2° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will become cloudy today. Showers and periods of rain will develop during the afternoon or evening hours. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 49° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 56° Showers are likely tomorrow and Thursday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 52.1°; 15-Year: 52.8° Newark: 30-Year: 53.1°; 15-Year: 54.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.2°; 15-Year: 55.9°

The exceptional cold shot occurred a few days earlier than 3/22 in 1967. The temperature fell to 8 on 3/19 in NYC.

Tomorrow will become mostly cloudy. Some showers are likely and temperatures will hold in the 40s across much of the region. The ongoing generally warmer than normal pattern will likely conclude later during the weekend. Nevertheless, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There is growing potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. The possibility of a fairly sharp cold shot has increased on the guidance in recent days. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +7.37 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.366 today. On March 20 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.172 (RMM). The March 19-adjusted amplitude was 2.036 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.3° (3.5° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and cooler today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 58° Newark: 60° Philadelphia: 62° Showers are likely tomorrow and Thursday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 51.8°; 15-Year: 52.5° Newark: 30-Year: 52.7°; 15-Year: 53.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.8°; 15-Year: 55.5°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and a bit cooler. The middle part of the week will be unsettled and briefly cooler with some rain and showers. The ongoing generally warmer than normal pattern that could last into the closing days of March. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The longer-range guidance has turned cooler for the close of March. Nevertheless, there remains some uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +12.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.529 today. On March 19 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.039 (RMM). The March 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.796 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.5° (3.7° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 64° Philadelphia: 67° Somewhat cooler readings are likely tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 51.4°; 15-Year: 52.1° Newark: 30-Year: 52.4°; 15-Year: 53.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.4°; 15-Year: 55.1°

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the region. A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March remains underway. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The longer-range guidance has turned cooler for the close of March. Nevertheless, there remains some uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +16.32 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.830 today. On March 18 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.798 (RMM). The March 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.757 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.5° (3.7° above normal).

Morning thoughts… A partly sunny morning will give way to a mainly cloudy afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 60° Philadelphia: 60° Similar to slightly cooler readings are likely tomorrow and Tuesday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 51.0°; 15-Year: 51.7° Newark: 30-Year: 52.0°; 15-Year: 53.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.1°; 15-Year: 54.7°