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donsutherland1

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  1. These developments provide good examples of how the dense foliage has changed the relationship of Central Park relative to the City's other locations and Newark. The problem is cited in the NOAA's inventory of stations. Unfortunately, the problem is not addressed. Thus, Central Park becomes less representative of the City's actual climate and, instead, an experiment that demonstrates the cooling impact of trees.
  2. Much of the region saw temperatures again reach 90° or above. Parts of the region will experience some heavy thunderstorms this evening and tonight. Generally warm weather will prevail through Saturday. New York City will see highs in the middle to perhaps upper 80s during this stretch. Excessive heat does not appear likely to return through at least the first week of July. However, there is somewhat less certainty than yesterday. There remains some potential for a shot of more significant heat during the July 6-8 period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was +2.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.127 today.
  3. Today became just the third day during the common recordkeeping period where Newark reached 95°, JFK and LaGuardia both reached 90°, but Central Park fell short of 90°. 2025 is the first year with two such days.
  4. So far, Central Park's high today is 88°. Newark has reached 95°. Should Central Park fail to reach 90°, Central Park would record its shortest interval on record between dates where Newark reached 95° or above while Central Park failed to reach 90°. On June 29, 2025, Newark topped out at 95°, while New York City (Central Park) reached 89°. The existing shortest interval is 14 days from May 22, 2021 to June 5, 2021. JFK Airport and LaGuardia Airport have both reached 91° so far today.
  5. JFK Airport has recorded its 8th 90° or above day this year.
  6. July 1, 1911 saw 2.68" of rain in Phoenix (high: 79°) and July 2, 1911 saw an additional 2.81" of rain (high: 82°). The July 2 figure remains the highest July daily amount on record and the two-day figure of 5.49" is the highest two-day figure on record for any two-day period in Phoenix.
  7. Central Park finally reached 90 this afternoon.
  8. June ended on a hot note across much of the New York City area. High temperatures included: Islip: 89° New York City-Central Park: 90° New York City-JFK Airport: 90° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 91° Newark: 93° New York City is finishing June with a monthly mean temperature of 73.2°. That is 1.2° above normal. June 2025 saw New York City's earliest 80° or above low temperature and an all-time record-tying 3 consecutive 80° or above lows during its heatwave on June 23-25. On June 9, the daily temperature range was just 2° (high: 64°; low: 62°), which tied the June monthly record set on June 8, 1869 and tied on June 11, 1910, June 8, 1916, June 20, 1958, and June 17, 1978. Overall, the June 23-25 heatwave was the most extreme on record for the larger New York City area. Islip (101°) and JFK Airport (102°) set new monthly high temperature records. Bridgeport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and White Plains all tied their monthly records. Very warm weather will prevail through mid week. New York City will see highs in the upper 80s. Newark will likely be near or just above 90° on each day during this period. Excessive heat does not appear likely to return through at least the first week of July. However, there is somewhat less certainty than yesterday. There remains some potential for a shot of more significant heat during the July 6-8 period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.182 today.
  9. With JFK Airport's having reached 90° for the seventh time this month and New York City (Central Park) having a high of 89° so far, JFK Airport could wind up with four more 90° or above highs than Central Park this month. That would tie the largest difference when JFK had more 90° highs. The record was set in June 2010 when JFK had eight such days while Central Park had four.
  10. Prior to June 2025, June 2019 (2 days at Islip and 1 day at New York City-Central Park) was the only such June. 2006 is currently the only year when Islip had more 90° days than Central Park (10 vs. 8).
  11. Today, Phoenix recorded its first 90° low temperature of the season. That is the fourth such occurrence on June 30th, which ties June 26th and June 29th for the second most occurrences in June. Only June 27th with five occurrences has more in June.
  12. I’ve often seen the bald eagles along the Delaware River when I visit my sister in Milford.
  13. DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.3 1.2 2.4
  14. I ran the numbers for June 24 using both regression equations: Pre-2000: 101.9; 2000-Present: 99.5; there's little doubt that absent the dense tree cover that was largely not present prior to 2000, Central Park would have surpassed 100° on June 24. Below are the predicted vs. actual highs for Central Park during June 22-25, 2025.
  15. I reran the numbers, as the final data showed highs of 91 at ISP, 92 at JFK, 91 at LGA, and 95 at EWR to go with NYC's 89.
  16. Today, Newark topped out at 95°. Central Park hit 89°. Prior to 2000, Central Park failed to reach 90° or above on just 0.4% of the days that Newark hit 95° or above. Since 2000, that figure has increased nearly 16-fold to 5.5%. For June, I constructed regression equations for the pre-2000 and 2000-present periods. The independent variables were ISP, JFK, LGA, and EWR. The dependent variable was NYC. Based on today's 91, 92, 91, and 95 highs at ISP, JFK, LGA, and EWR, the pre-2000 equation suggested a high of 93.28 at Central Park (95% CIE: 90.5-96.0). The 2000-present equation suggested a high of 90.52 at Central Park (95% (CIE: 88.9-92.1). The difference in the estimates suggests that Central Park's highs are nearly 2.8° cooler relative to surrounding locations in the 2000-2024 period. The coefficients of determination were 0.86 and 0.95 respectively. Given the high coefficients of determination for both cases, one can have strong confidence that today's highs are notably cooler relative to those at surrounding sites than they would have been prior to 2000, especially as the predicted 2000-2024 high falls outside the 95% confidence interval for the pre-2000 period.
  17. The temperature soared into the lower 90s in many parts of the area today. Today was also the second time this year and 18th time overall that Central Park did not reach 90° or above when Islip, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Newark reached 90° or above. 17/18 (94%) of those dates have occurred since 2000 and 12/18 (67%) have occurred since 2010. Prior to 2000, 0.6% of days with 90° or above highs at Islip, JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark did not reach 90° in Central Park. Since 2000, 10.1% of such days saw a high below 90° at Central Park while 10.6% had no high of 90° at Central Park since 2010. Very warm weather will prevail through mid week. New York City will see highs in the upper 80s. Newark will likely be near or just above 90° on each day during this period. Excessive heat does not appear likely to return through at least the first week of July. However, there is somewhat less certainty than yesterday. Both the 0zz GFS and ECMWF show potential for more significant heat during the July 6-8 period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was +2.81 on Friday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.405 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2° (1.2° above normal).
  18. This is what I get using the calendar year for Central Park:
  19. I also compiled the benchmark record high minimum temperatures since 2025 set one, as well during the recent heatwave.
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