donsutherland1

Morning thoughts… Today will be fair and warmer. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 69° Rain from Nicole will arrive tomorrow. Thunderstorms are possible and it will be unseasonably warm. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 55.9°; 15-Year: 55.9° Newark: 30-Year: 56.9°; 15-Year: 57.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 57.8°

It was 39 this morning.

Temperatures will rebound into the 60s tomorrow under partly sunny skies. However, the sunshine will yield to increasing clouds late in the day or at night. Rain will develop on Friday as the remnants of Nicole move northward. A general 1"-2" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely from late Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Parts of the region could see strong thunderstorms, as well. In addition, as the system undergoes baroclinic deepening while heading toward upstate New York and northern New England, it could turn very windy on Saturday. Parts of the region could see gusts of 50 mph. With the region's being in the storm's warm sector, the mercury could reach or exceed 70° Friday and Saturday in parts of the area. Currently, Newark has 6 70° days this month. The November record is 7 days, which was set in 1975 and tied in 2020. JFK Airport has seen 5 70° days, which tied the November record set in 1975. Following the storm and cold frontal passage, much colder air will pour into the region Saturday night. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season Sunday night or Monday morning at LaGuardia Airport and Central Park. Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the middle of next week. Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Its magnitude and duration, should it develop, remain uncertain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +4.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.285 today. On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.613 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.741 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.4° (2.4° above normal).

Morning thoughts… A frosty start will be followed by a sunny but cool day. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 60° Tomorrow will be another cool day. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 56.2° Newark: 30-Year: 57.3°; 15-Year: 57.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.3°; 15-Year: 58.2°

After a frosty start, tomorrow will again see temperatures no higher than the 50s in most of the region. Afterward, the temperature will again rebound before another stronger cold front brings cooler than normal conditions for late in the weekend and early next week. The cold front could be preceded by a rain and wind event, in part due to the remnants of Nicole. The potential exists for a widespread significant rainfall Friday through Saturday, particularly west of the Appalachians. Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Its duration, should it develop, is uncertain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was -14.89 today. The previous record low was -21.59, which was set in 1997. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.930 today. On November 6 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.743 (RMM). The November 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.825 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.3° (2.3° above normal).

This post revisits the comment from November 3: The GEFS now forecasts the AO to go negative after mid-month. That forecast is in good agreement with statistical outcomes following strong polar vortexes at the end of October. The development of a period of Atlantic blocking will follow the ongoing development of an EPO-. The outcome will likely be a colder than normal period that will last 7-10 days. Deeper and more sustained Atlantic blocking would allow for a longer duration of cold conditions. Currently, both the EPS weeklies and CFSv2 weeklies suggest that the cold will be replaced by a return to warmer conditions in the closing days of November.

Many parts of the northeastern U.S. saw their warmest first week of November on record. A sample of records is below.

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and much cooler High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 59° Tomorrow will be another cool day. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 56.6° Newark: 30-Year: 57.7°; 15-Year: 57.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.7°; 15-Year: 58.6°

Error fixed.

Ten years ago the high temperature at JFK Airport was 41°, as a snowstorm moved in. Today, summerlike warmth prevailed as the thermometer topped out at 80°. Today's daily records included: Athens, GA: 85° (old record: 84°, 2017) Atlanta: 83° (old record: 79°, 2005 and 2017) Atlantic City: 81° (old record: 77°, 2020) Baltimore: 81° (old record: 77°, 1938, 1975, and 2020) Bangor: 73° (old record: 71°, 2020) Bridgeport: 79° (old record: 69°, 2020) ***New November Record*** Caribou: 64° (old record: 63°, 1948) Houlton, ME: 67° (old record: 66°, 1948 and 1975) Islip: 80° (old record: 74°, 2020) ***New November Record*** Lynchburg: 84° (old record: 77°, 1965) New Haven: 80° (old record: 69°, 2020) ***New November Record*** New Orleans: 90° (old record: 86°, 1986) ***New November Record; Latest 90° temperature on record*** New York City-JFK: 80° (old record: 73°, 2020) New York City-LGA: 78° (old record: 76°, 2020) Newark: 81° (old record: 78°, 1938) Philadelphia: 79° (old record: 76°, 1938) Poughkeepsie: 75° (tied record set in 2020) Providence: 79° (old record: 76°, 2020) Raleigh: 84° (old record: 80°, 2008) Richmond: 82° (old record: 81°, 1975) Sterling, VA: 79° (old record: 76°, 2020) Tallahassee: 88° (old record: 86°, 2003 and 2015) Trenton: 76° (tied record set in 1975) Washington, DC: 81° (old record: 77°, 1938 and 1975) Westhampton: 80° (old record: 70°, 2020) ***New November Record*** White Plains: 75° (old record: 73°, 2020) Wilmington, DE: 80° (old record: 75°, 1938, 1975, and 2020) Boston, Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City (JFK, LGA, NYC), Newark, and Philadelphia all experienced their warmest first week of November on record. The final numbers will be available after midnight, as cooler air is now pressing into the region. Tomorrow and Wednesday will see temperatures no higher than the 50s in most of the region. Afterward, the temperature will again rebound before another stronger cold front brings cooler than normal conditions for late in the weekend and early next week. The cold front could be preceded by a significant rain and wind event, in part due to the remnants of Nicole. The potential exists for a widespread significant rainfall Friday through Saturday. Beyond mid-month, there are emerging signals that Atlantic blocking could try to develop. There is now good agreement between the latest ensembles and the statistical guidance following strong polar vortexes at the end of October showing the AO going negative toward November 20th +/- a few days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was -31.05 today. The previous record low was -21.59, which was set in 1997. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.739 today. On November 5 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.827 (RMM). The November 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.725 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.5° (2.5° above normal).

JFK hit 80 at 1:45 pm.

11/1/1950. There’s still a chance that it hit 80 within the last 15 minutes. We’ll see later.

JFK was also 77. Latest was November 1, 1950 (80).

It’s also hotter for the Connecticut shore. Bridgeport (79) and New Haven (80) have set monthly records.

It was 77 at Islip on 11/15/1993.

So far, 79 is the high at JFK.

Areas that have hit 80 or above include: Atlantic City: 81 Islip: 80 New Haven: 80 Newark: 81

It hit 80.

On the final day of extreme November warmth, Bridgeport and Islip have tied their daily records and New Haven has broken its daily record as of 10 am.

For now, I’m thinking Central Park will get to 34.

It’s a close call for Central Park and LaGuardia. Most of the region should see 32 or below.

Morning thoughts… It will become mostly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 78° Philadelphia: 78° Tomorrow and Wednesday will be noticeably cooler days with temperatures remaining in the 50s in much of the region. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 56.9°; 15-Year: 56.9° Newark: 30-Year: 58.0°; 15-Year: 58.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.0°; 15-Year: 58.9°

Today was another day of incredible warmth for November. Records tumbled in many parts of the Northeast. Records included: Binghamton: 71° (old record: 70°, 1978 and 1950) Boston: 76° (old record: 73°, 1938, 1948, 1959, and 2015) Bridgeport: 72° (old record: 71°, 2015) Buffalo: 74° (old record: 73°, 1948 and 1956) Burlington: 76° (old record: 75°, 1948) Caribou: 71° (old record: 66°, 2020) ***First November with 2 70° days*** Concord: 75° (tied record set in 1948) Hartford: 76° (tied record set in 2015) Houlton, ME: 71° (old record: 69°, 1938) Islip: 74° (old record: 69°, 2015) Manchester, NH: 77° (old record: 75°, 2015) Millinocket, ME: 71° (old record: 68°, 1938) New Haven: 74° (old record: 69°, 1948, 1959, and 2015) New York City-LGA: 75° (tied record set in 2015) New York City-NYC: 75° (old record: 74°, 1948 and 2015) Providence: 75° (old record: 72°, 1948, 1959, 1994, 2015, and 2020) Richmond: 82° (old record: 81°, 1975) Rochester: 72° (tied record set in 1948 and tied in 2005 and 2015) Syracuse: 80° (old record: 74°, 2005) White Plains: 74° (old record: 72°, 2015) Worcester: 72° (old record: 71°, 2020) Tomorrow will be another very warm day. A few places could approach or reach 80°. However, a cold front will bring cooler weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will again rebound before another stronger cold front brings cooler than normal conditions for late in the weekend and early next week. Beyond mid-month, there are some emerging signals that Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with a November 1-7 average temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average). There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around October 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was -17.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.482 today. On November 4 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.726 (RMM). The November 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.792 (RMM).

In the midst of what will be the New York City area’s warmest first week of November, flowers remain in bloom at the New York Botanical Garden.