donsutherland1

Temperatures rose into the middle 80s today. Tomorrow will be even warmer with widespread upper 80s and some lower 90s. Parts of the region could even experience a heatwave from tomorrow through Saturday. In the South, Galveston is now virtually certain to record its third consecutive record warm month. The last time that happened was June-September 2020 in Oracle, AZ and Tucson. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +26.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.317 today. On June 27 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.923 (RMM). The June 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.955 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (0.7° below normal).

I agree. But that was the decision.

Upon a review, the 1983 record was upheld. I emailed NCEI about the record back in 2018 and then posted the response here:

There is an important difference between what the charts are measuring and the point @Bluewave et al., have been making. The charts measure daytime and nighttime temperatures, not high and low temperatures. There could be a 2-degree error during a one-to-two hour period with all the other hours having small errors. The daytime error would then be small. The issue raised concerns high temperatures (mainly during late spring to early fall). At present, Central Park’s hourly temperatures diverge from local and Micronet temperatures around 18z until near 20z (one can see it on the most recent daily chart shown on the Gladstone website). That time shifts a little as the season progresses hinting at shadowing during a small part of the day. However, that’s typically when some of the day’s highest readings occur. Thus, the issue noted in discussions here and by local meteorologists.

Morning thoughts… Today will mostly sunny and warmer. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 83° Newark: 89° Philadelphia: 88° Tomorrow and Friday will be very warm days. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.4°; 15-Year: 83.6° Newark: 30-Year: 85.7°; 15-Year: 86.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.8°; 15-Year: 87.2°

Warmer air will return tomorrow. Parts of the region could even experience a heatwave from Thursday through Saturday. In the South, Galveston is now virtually certain to record its third consecutive record warm month. The last time that happened was June-September 2020 in Oracle, AZ and Tucson. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +22.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.073 today. On June 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.953 (RMM). The June 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.663 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (0.7° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will mostly sunny and pleasantly warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 84° Philadelphia: 82° Warmer air will begin to return tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.2°; 15-Year: 83.3° Newark: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 85.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 87.0°

In the wake of today's frontal passage, tomorrow will be mostly sunny and pleasantly warm. Afterward, warmer air will return. Parts of the region could even experience a heatwave from Thursday through Saturday. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +31.14 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.188 today. On June 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.664 (RMM). The June 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.815 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.2° (0.8° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will partly to mostly cloudy and cooler. Showers and thundershowers are likely. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 84° Tomorrow be fair but somewhat cooler than normal. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 83.0° Newark: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 85.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.4°; 15-Year: 86.7°

A cold front will move across the region tomorrow with showers and thundershowers. It will bring a decisive but short-lived end to this weekend's heat. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +27.55 today. The old daily record was +25.02, which was set in 2009. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.646 today. On June 24 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.817 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.699 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.1° (0.9° below normal).

Temperatures reached the 90s in many parts of the region with Newark topping out at 96° this afternoon. Tomorrow will be another hot day. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures will soar into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region. A few middle 90s are possible. A cold front will likely move across the region on Monday. In the Pacific Northwest, the first significant heat of summer 2022 has now moved into the region. Portland could see the thermometer make a run at 100° tomorrow. However, that will be far from the record, as it coincides with the start of the hottest three-day period of last summer's historic heatwave. The daily record for Sunday is 108°. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +14.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.503 today. On June 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.700 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.467 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.0° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will partly to mostly sunny and hot. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 89° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 92° Tomorrow will be another hot day. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5° Newark: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 84.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.2°

A very warm weekend lies ahead. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures will soar into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region. Some of the hotter spots could top out in the middle 90s. A cold front will likely move across the region on Monday. In the Pacific Northwest, the first significant heat of summer 2022 is likely this weekend. On Sunday, the mercury in Portland could make a run at 100°. However, that will be far from the record, as it coincides with the start of the hottest three-day period of last summer's historic heatwave. The daily record for Sunday is 108°. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +4.85 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.213 today. On June 22 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.477 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.198 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.9° (1.1° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will become partly sunny and warmer. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 85° Philadelphia: 85° Warmer air will begin to return tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.2°; 15-Year: 82.2° Newark: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 84.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.7°; 15-Year: 86.0°

Warmer air will begin to return to the region tomorrow. A very warm weekend lies ahead. Down south more high temperature records were matched or beaten. Record highs included: Galveston: 96° (old record: 95°, 1875 and 1995) Jacksonville: 100° (old record: 99°, 1944, 1981 and 1998) Macon: 104° (old record: 101°, 1944, 1981 and 1988) Mobile: 102° (old record: 101°, 2009) Savannah: 102° (tied record set in 1981) During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was -1.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.178 today. On June 21 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.205 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.200 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.0° below normal).

Climate Central released the Climate Shift Index, which provides daily estimates of how climate change is impacting air temperature. It puts a number on the influence of climate change on daily high and low temperatures for a period ranging from yesterday to two days into the future. A short video introducing the tool can be found here: https://www.climatecentral.org/realtime-fingerprints The tool can be found here: https://www.climatecentral.org/tools/climate-shift-index

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and still cool for the season. A few locations could pick up some rain. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 71° Newark: 75° Philadelphia: 74° Warmer air will begin to return tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.0°; 15-Year: 81.9° Newark: 30-Year: 84.3°; 15-Year: 84.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 85.7°

Under gray skies and occasional light rain and drizzle, the temperature peaked at 67° in New York City. The unseasonably cool weather will continue through tomorrow before warmer air returns. Down south, blazing heat melted high temperature records. Daily records included: Atlanta: 98° (tied record set in 1964) Charlotte: 101° (old record: 100°, 2015) Columbia, SC: 101° (tied record set in 1939 and tied in 1956 and 1988) Macon, GA: 105° (old record: 101°, 1925) Memphis: 102° (old record: 100°, 1988) Mobile: 101° (old record: 100°, 1881 and 2009) Nashville: 101° (old record: 1944 and 1988) New Orleans: 96° (tied record set in 2009) Raleigh: 100° (tied record set in 1981) During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +13.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.594 today. On June 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.201 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.714 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.2° (0.8° below normal).

Yesterday’s low temperature of 86 at Galveston was that city’s earliest such minimum temperature on record. The previous mark was set on August 8, 2019.

Yesterday’s low temperature of 86 at Galveston was that city’s earliest such minimum temperature on record. The previous mark was set on August 8, 2019.

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy and very cool for the season. There will be showers and periods of rain. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region except upper 70s in southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 79° The cool temperatures will persist through tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.7°; 15-Year: 81.6° Newark: 30-Year: 84.0°; 15-Year: 84.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 85.4°

Interesting paper. It provides yet more evidence of the anthropogenic role that is driving an increase in marine heatwaves.

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be unseasonably cool. The unseasonably cool weather will continue through Thursday before warmer air returns. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +18.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.404 today. On June 19 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.717 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.868 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (0.7° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be increasingly cloudy somewhat cooler than normal. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 82° Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be unreasonably cool. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.4°; 15-Year: 81.3° Newark: 30-Year: 83.7°; 15-Year: 83.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.2°

Cooler air will again push into the region. The unseasonably cool weather will continue until after midweek before warmer air returns. Meanwhile, parts of the North Central United States and South saw record heat. Records included: Duluth: 93° (old record: 88°, 1995) Galveston: 97° (old record: 94°, 1875 and 1933) Houston: 102° (old record: 101°, 1902) Minneapolis-St. Paul: 100° (old record: 98°, 1933) During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +22.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.998 today. On June 18 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.870 (RMM). The June 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.980 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (0.5° below normal).