donsutherland1
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Despite bright sunshine, the temperature only reached 58 degrees in New York City. Some scenes from the New York Botanical Garden:
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Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 59° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 62° The cool weather will continue through Monday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 67.4°; 15-Year: 68.6° Newark: 30-Year: 69.0°; 15-Year: 70.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 61.3°; 15-Year: 71.3°
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A cold front is now crossing the region. As a result, another cool weekend lies ahead. All said, the first 10 days of October remain on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +20.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.948 today. On October 4 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.685 (RMM). The October 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.683 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (1.8° below normal).
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Under mainly sunny skies, the temperature rebounded into the lower and middle 70s across the region. Tomorrow will be another warm day. However, the warmth will be short-lived. A cold front will cross the region, ushering in another cool weekend. All said, the first 10 days of October remain on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development increases the probability of a cooler outcome this month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +25.46 today. The old daily record was +19.72, which was set in 2017. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.464 today. On October 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.685 (RMM). The October 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.855 (RMM).
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Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and warmer. High temperatures will reach the lower and perhaps middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 75° Tomorrow will turn warmer. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 68.2°; 15-Year: 69.4° Newark: 30-Year: 69.8°; 15-Year: 71.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 72.2°
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A brief period of warmer readings will develop tomorrow and continue through Friday before another strong cold front crosses the region on Friday. All said, the first 10 days of October are on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development raises the probability of a cooler exception this month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +37.19 today. The old daily record was +27.39, which was set in 1999. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.570 today. On October 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.852 (RMM). The October 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.932 (RMM).
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Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy with some periods of rain and continued cool. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 59° Newark: 60° Philadelphia: 63° Tomorrow will turn warmer. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 68.6°; 15-Year: 69.9° Newark: 30-Year: 70.2°; 15-Year: 71.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.4°; 15-Year: 72.6°
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Today was another cloudy, rainy, and cool day. Newark received 1.61" of rain, which broke the daily record of 0.93" from 2006. It will remain unseasonably cool through tomorrow. Some additional rain or showers are likely. Afterward, a brief period of warmer readings will follow before another strong cold front crosses the region on Friday. All said, the first 10 days of October are on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development raises the probability of a cooler exception this month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +32.81 today. The old daily record was +26.36, which was set in 2010. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.066 today. On October 2 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.929 (RMM). The October 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.822 (RMM).
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Morning thoughts… Today will rainy, breezy, and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 56° The cool weather will persist through tomorrow before a brief period of warmer readings arrives. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 69.0°; 15-Year: 70.3° Newark: 30-Year: 70.6°; 15-Year: 72.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.8°; 15-Year: 73.1°
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Yesterday's 52° high temperature at JFK Airport set a new record low maximum temperature for October 3. The old record was 53°, which was set in 1974.
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Under slate gray skies, a gusty wind, and some periods of light rain, today took on an appearance that more resembled early November than early October. Tomorrow will be another mainly cloudy day with showers and some periods of rain possible. Heavier and more widespread rain is possible. It will remain unseasonably cool through Wednesday. Afterward, a brief period of warmer readings will follow before another strong cold front crosses the region on Friday. All said, the first 10 days of October are on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development raises the probability of a cooler exception this month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +15.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.922 today. On October 1 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.973 (RMM). The September 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.639 (RMM).
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Morning thoughts… Today will cloudy, breezy, and unseasonably cool. There will be periods of rain. The heaviest rain will likely affect southern New Jersey, including Atlantic City, which received a daily record 3.01” yesterday. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 56° The cool weather will persist until the middle of the week before a brief period of warmer readings arrives. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 69.4°; 15-Year: 70.7° Newark: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 72.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 72.2°; 15-Year: 73.5°
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Through 10:30 pm, daily rainfall totals include: Atlantic City: 2.53" (old record: 1.36", 1961) Islip: 0.02" New York City-JFK: 0.17" New York City-LGA: 0.07" New York City-NYC: Trace Newark: 0.51" Philadelphia: 1.81" (old record: 1.80", 2015)
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0.89” yesterday
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Tomorrow will be another mainly cloudy day with showers and some periods of rain possible. It will remain unseasonably cool. The first 10 days of October are on track to be much cooler than normal despite a brief warmup at the middle of the week. The overall temperature could average 3°-5° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. October 1988 was the coldest exception. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +8.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.992 today. On September 30 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.641 (RMM). The September 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.610 (RMM).
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Some photos from along the Long Island Sound this afternoon. There were periods of rain and a gusty wind.
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A short video clip from this morning.
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The jet stream was altered from former Super typhoon Merbok's push into the Arctic region. It will take some time for that effect to fade--probably by mid-October. In response, some strong blocking had developed, which further amplified the changes that had occurred.
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Morning thoughts… Today will cloudy, breezy, and unseasonably cool. There will be periods of rain. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 59° The cool weather will persist until the middle of the week before a brief period of warmer readings arrives. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 69.8°; 15-Year: 71.1° Newark: 30-Year: 71.4°; 15-Year: 72.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 72.6°; 15-Year: 73.9°
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Through 6 pm EDT, rainfall amounts are: Bridgeport: 0.36" Islip: 0.51" New York City-JFK: 0.87" New York City-LGA: 0.63" New York City-NYC: 0.58" Newark: 0.61" Philadelphia: 0.88" Westhampton: 1.38" (old record: 1.23", 1958) Additional light rain is possible tonight and tomorrow. From New York City and its nearby suburbs southward, a general 0.50"-1.50" storm total rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely tomorrow through Sunday. Most locations in that area will see the lower part of that range. The first 10 days of October will be much cooler than normal despite a brief warmup at the middle of next week. The overall temperature could average 3°-5° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. October 1988 was the coldest exception. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +17.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.646 today. On September 29 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.608 (RMM). The September 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.367 (RMM).
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June 1.
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I will check when I get home in a short while.
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For now, there are some breaks in the clouds and some sunshine in southern Westchester County, even as it continues to rain lightly.
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Rainfall totals through 12 pm: Bridgeport: 0.30" Islip: 0.46" New York City: 0.57" Newark: 0.58" Philadelphia: 0.88" Westhampton: 1.19" (first 1" or greater rainfall since June 27)
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Morning thoughts… Rainfall totals through 8 am include: Bridgeport: 0.22”; Islip: 0.38”; New York City: 0.34”; Newark: 0.35”; Philadelphia: 0.84”; and, Westhampton: 0.63”. Today will cloudy and unseasonably cool. There will be showers and some periods of light rain. Eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut could see some moderate to heavy rain. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 59° Philadelphia: 63° The cool weather will persist until the middle of next week before a brief period of warmer air arrives. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 70.2°; 15-Year: 71.5° Newark: 30-Year: 71.8°; 15-Year: 73.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.0°; 15-Year: 74.3°
