donsutherland1

There are too many missing summer days in a number of recent years, some of which had large numbers of 90° or above days in the region.

Last year, a similar issue arose regarding 95° or above days at Phoenixville. It's pre-1950 data is unreliable. For the 95° or above highs, I ran regression equations based on the 1950-1980 period testing West Chester and Phoenixville and West Chester and Coatesville. The West Chester - Phoenixville equation broke down badly when applied to the 1930-1949 period, ballooning from 2.8 days to 12.4 days. The West Chester - Coatesville equation held reasonably consistent. This disparity suggested that the issue concerned Phoenixville, not West Chester. To determine whether the 1950-1980 period was an issue, I also tested that equation for 1981-2015 for West Chester - Phoenixville. The equation held up reasonably well. The Coatesville data record ended in 1982, so I could not test the West Chester - Coatesville relationship. The equations for the 1930-1949 and 1950-80 periods strongly argued that Phoenixville's 1930-1949 measurements were at issue and are not reliable. That also includes the currently recognized state maximum temperature record of 111° that was set at Phoenixville. The more likely value is probably near 105° based on the 1950-1980 relationship. I now repeated the exercise for 90° or above highs at Phoenixville. I expected that just as had been the case with 95° or above highs, the 1930-1949 period would see vastly more 90° or above highs than predicted while the 1981-2015 period would not be too different from what was predicted. The outcome: The 1930-1949 Phoenixville data is wildly out of line with both the rest of its historical record and the West Chester data that it is unusable in its raw form for any credible analyses.

Following yesterday's deluge, today was a much drier day. Some showers or thundershowers could return to the region tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. It will turn somewhat warmer tomorrow with temperatures rising through into the middle and upper 80s. The heat will likely peak on Thursday with highs topping out in the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s. A warm and mainly dry weekend will follow. No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +2.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.295 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal).

Yes, I'm aware of that. That's why I noted the difference between the PNS (2.95") and the climate record entry (3.38").

For illustrative purposes, I ran the numbers for Newark to examine the connection between temperature and extreme rainfall events. I used mean top 1% of rainfall for 30-year periods and 30-year moving temperatures. Again, as had been the case with New York City, there's a strong connection between temperature and extreme precipitation events (coefficient of determination: 0.91). In short, a warming climate is increasing the intensity of extreme precipitation events.

The intensity of the precipitation e.g., "light rain" is only at the point of observation e.g., 19:51. Here's a more complete record during the heavy rainfall:

I agree. Hopefully, there will be an update this morning.

010 NOUS41 KOKX 150711 RRA PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-151900- Public Information Statement...Corrected National Weather Service New York NY 311 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Greenwich 3.19 in 0155 AM 07/15 CWOP Danbury 3.07 in 0159 AM 07/15 CWOP Danbury 2.43 in 0145 AM 07/15 CWOP Danbury 2.03 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP Danbury 1.99 in 0159 AM 07/15 CWOP 1 WNW Redding 1.90 in 0150 AM 07/15 AWS REDDING 1.81 in 0158 AM 07/15 CWOP Danbury Airport 1.80 in 0153 AM 07/15 ASOS Redding 1.69 in 0155 AM 07/15 CWOP Greenwich 1.45 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS Ridgefield 1.44 in 0153 AM 07/15 AWS 3 N New Canaan 1.39 in 0154 AM 07/15 AWS Redding Ridge 1.35 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP 2 E Greenwich 1.23 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS STAMFORD 1.16 in 1055 PM 07/14 CWOP ...New Haven County... Wolcott 1.34 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS Oxford 1.18 in 0153 AM 07/15 CWOP ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... 1 SSE Franklin Lakes 3.73 in 0145 AM 07/15 IFLOWS Leonia 2.79 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS Tenafly 2.54 in 0155 AM 07/15 CWOP Tenafly 2.42 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS Tenafly 2.33 in 0156 AM 07/15 CWOP New Milford 2.26 in 0150 AM 07/15 AWS Teterboro Airport 2.25 in 0151 AM 07/15 ASOS Hasbrouck Heights 2.22 in 0154 AM 07/15 CWOP Mahwah 2.04 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS Ridgwood 1.86 in 0158 AM 07/15 CWOP Bergenfield 1.81 in 0145 AM 07/15 CWOP Oakland 1.79 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP Emerson 1.43 in 0146 AM 07/15 CWOP Oakland 1.27 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS Paramus 1.15 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS North Arlington 1.11 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS ...Essex County... 1.6 W Millburn 3.00 in 0145 AM 07/15 HADS Millburn 2.62 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS Maplewood 2.54 in 0110 AM 07/15 IFLOWS West Orange 2.19 in 0155 AM 07/15 CWOP 1 W Newark 2.05 in 0150 AM 07/15 AWS WEST CALDWELL 1.94 in 0155 AM 07/15 CWOP 1 W Orange 1.75 in 0155 AM 07/15 URBANET West Caldwell 1.72 in 0154 AM 07/15 AWS Caldwell 1.59 in 0153 AM 07/15 ASOS Fairfield 1.49 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS West Caldwell 1.41 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP 0.6 SW Caldwell 1.36 in 0145 AM 07/15 IFLOWS Newark 1.17 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS 2 S Kearny 1.01 in 0153 AM 07/15 AWS ...Hudson County... 1 W Hoboken 1.28 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS Kearny 1.12 in 0156 AM 07/15 CWOP Hoboken 1.03 in 0157 AM 07/15 CWOP ...Passaic County... 0.8 SE Pompton Lakes 2.59 in 0130 AM 07/15 HADS Ringwood 2.56 in 0110 AM 07/15 RAWS Wayne 2.51 in 0145 AM 07/15 CWOP 2.1 E Ringwood 2.28 in 0145 AM 07/15 IFLOWS WAYNE 2.27 in 0155 AM 07/15 CWOP North Haledon 2.06 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP 1.5 SW Ringwood 1.56 in 0145 AM 07/15 IFLOWS 1 NNE North Caldwell 1.36 in 0153 AM 07/15 AWS Hawthorne 1.20 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP West Milford 1.18 in 0159 AM 07/15 CWOP ...Union County... Mountainside 5.34 in 0130 AM 07/15 IFLOWS Linden Airport 4.38 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWOS Bayside 4.10 in 0159 AM 07/15 CWOP Newark Airport 2.13 in 0151 AM 07/15 ASOS ...New York... ...Bronx County... 1 NE Harlem 2.64 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS ...Nassau County... Great Neck 1.18 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP ...New York (Manhattan) County... Central Park 2.64 in 0151 AM 07/15 ASOS Washington Heights 2.08 in 0150 AM 07/15 AWS Midtown Manhattan 1.88 in 0150 AM 07/15 AWS New York 1.85 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP NEW YORK 1.52 in 0145 AM 07/15 CWOP ...Orange County... 2.6 NW Tuxedo Park 3.92 in 0145 AM 07/15 HADS Newburgh 3.06 in 0136 AM 07/15 CWOP CORNWALL ON HUDSON 2.53 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP Tuxedo Park 2.35 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS Washingtonville 2.13 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP US Military Academy 1.93 in 1255 AM 07/15 RAWS Vails Gate 1.65 in 0156 AM 07/15 CWOP NEW WINDSOR 1.27 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP West Point 1.21 in 0153 AM 07/15 AWS Harriman 1.15 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS Chester 1.11 in 0155 AM 07/15 CWOP Chester 1.03 in 0150 AM 07/15 AWS ...Putnam County... Lake Carmel 3.23 in 0156 AM 07/15 CWOP Mahopac 1.03 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS ...Queens County... NYC/La Guardia 1.66 in 0151 AM 07/15 ASOS Bellerose 1.52 in 0151 AM 07/15 CWOP OZONE PARK 1.38 in 0159 AM 07/15 CWOP LONG ISLAND CITY 1.23 in 0159 AM 07/15 CWOP NYC/JFK Airport 1.02 in 0151 AM 07/15 ASOS ...Richmond County... Eltingville 2.14 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP Staten Island 1.43 in 0146 AM 07/15 CWOP ...Rockland County... Nanuet 5.03 in 0130 AM 07/15 IFLOWS 1 SSW Mount Ivy 4.12 in 0154 AM 07/15 AWS 1 NW Haverstraw 3.10 in 0153 AM 07/15 AWS Montebello 2.76 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP 0.9 N Montebello 2.36 in 0130 AM 07/15 HADS New City 2.29 in 0153 AM 07/15 AWS Stony Point 2.22 in 0153 AM 07/15 AWS Spring Valley 1.39 in 0145 AM 07/15 CWOP Sloatsburg 1.01 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP ...Suffolk County... Fort Salonga 1.55 in 0153 AM 07/15 AWS Old Field 1.47 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS East Setauket 1.23 in 0158 AM 07/15 CWOP Northport 1.22 in 0200 AM 07/15 CWOP COMMACK 1.16 in 0155 AM 07/15 CWOP ...Westchester County... Tarrytown 4.06 in 0147 AM 07/15 CWOP Dobbs Ferry 3.38 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS Midland Park 3.36 in 0145 AM 07/15 IFLOWS 1 SSE Hartsdale 3.23 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS Armonk 2.97 in 0145 AM 07/15 CWOP White Plains Airport 2.95 in 0156 AM 07/15 ASOS Rye Brook 2.79 in 0154 AM 07/15 AWS SCARSDALE 2.25 in 0145 AM 07/15 CWOP 1 NW Rye 1.89 in 0153 AM 07/15 AWS 1 S Peach Lake 1.83 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS PORT CHESTER 1.71 in 0158 AM 07/15 CWOP Pleasantville 1.61 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS Ossining 1.38 in 0159 AM 07/15 CWOP New Rochelle 1.22 in 0145 AM 07/15 CWOP Rye 1.21 in 0155 AM 07/15 AWS ...Maritime Stations... Greenwich 1.32 in 0157 AM 07/15 CWOP &&

Yesterday, White Plains picked up 3.38" of rain. That smashed the daily record of 1.63" from 2014. That was also the second highest amount for any day in July. The highest amount for any day in July was 3.44" from July 18, 2022. It was also White Plains' 7th highest summer (June-August) daily rainfall on record. It was White Plains' biggest rainfall since September 29, 2023 when 4.10" fell. New York City (Central Park), Newark, and White Plains all received 2.00" or more daily rainfall for the first time since March 23, 2024. The last time all three stations saw 2" or more daily rainfall during the summer was August 22, 2021. NOTE: The PNS shows 2.95" at White Plains. The climate record in XmAcis shows 3.38".

New York City's 2" or Above Hourly Rainfalls:

New York City received 2.07" (52.6 mm) of rain in the past hour. That is the 4th biggest hourly rainfall on record for July. Moreover, it is the biggest hourly rainfall since an all-time record 3.15" (80.0 mm) of rain fell on September 1, 2021.

White Plains picked up 1.32" in the past hour. That's the second highest hourly mark on record for July and fourth highest for summer.

I was going to drive through there for an appointment in White Plains, but canceled the appointment based on the radar.

Valhalla and North White Plains are reporting flash flooding.

Newark has now gone over 1" of rain for the day. The daily mark is 1.90" from 1920. On that day, Central Park picked up just 0.15" of rain. I expect more rain there this time around. Scranton and Harrisburg have now set daily records for July 14.

Showers and heavy thunderstorms will affect parts of the region into early tomorrow morning. North and west of New York City will likely see a general 1"-3" of rain with locally higher amounts exceeding 4". Already, Scranton has picked up 2.32" of rain through 4:41 pm today. That breaks the daily record of 1.69" from 2017. That is also the 20th highest daily rainfall for any day in July. Heavy rain was also falling at Newark with 0.43" over the past 41 minutes. It will turn somewhat warmer tomorrow with temperatures rising through Thursday or Friday. The heat will likely peak on Thursday and Friday with highs topping out in the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s. A warm and mainly dry weekend will follow. No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +1.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.077 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal).

For reference:

Earlier this morning, Scranton picked up 1.31" of rain in an hour. Its daily rainfall is currently approaching the daily mark of 1.69" that was set in 2017. So far, 3 S Equinunk, PA has picked up 5.50" of rain today.

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warm with readings generally in the lower 80s. A warm front will cross the region tomorrow night and Tuesday with some showers and thundershowers. Some locations have the potential to receive excessive amounts of rain. Afterward, it will turn somewhat warmer. The heat will likely peak on Thursday and Friday with highs topping out in the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s. A warm weekend will follow. No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +16.68 Friday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.219 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal).

In theory, yes. But the Arctic is warming faster than the mid-latitudes and the deep cold pool is shrinking. That’s reducing the coverage of cold anomalies even against a warmer baseline.

Good studies. I suspect that the warming of the West Pacific is having an impact on the polar vortex. Arctic outbreaks remain possible and it is plausible that they can, at times, penetrate farther south than they had in the past. However, because the deep cold pool is smaller than it was prior to 2000, in general, the cold shots tend not to be as expansive or as prolonged as they once were absent a "stuck pattern." That's why the overall coverage of cold anomalies is typically less than it was during earlier winters (e.g., February 1979 vs. February 2015) and the only nationwide winter among the top 30 coldest winters among the 2000s was 2009-10.

Below is the change in interval between the first and last date in the 50s for New York City (Central Park): Recent Seasons: 2020-21 season: First low below 60°F: September 14, 2020 Last low below 60°F: June 23, 2021 2021-22 season: First low below 60°F: July 3, 2021 Last low below 60°F: June 20, 2022 2022-23 season: First low below 60°F: September 16, 2022 Last low below 60°F: June 10, 2023 2023-24 season: First low below 60°F: September 15, 2023 Last low below 60°F: June 11, 2024 2024-25 season: First low below 60°F: August 21, 2024 Last low below 60°F: June 15, 2025

For illustrative purposes, I ran the numbers for New York City's Central Park (long climate record that goes back to 1869) to examine the connection between temperature and extreme rainfall events. Here are New York City's extreme rainfall events (top 1%) over one day and two days (overlapping two-day events are not double counted; the higher two-day rainfall is retained while the lower one is dropped, as the focus is on extreme events): Mean 30-Year Moving Average Temperature: The Clausius-Clapeyron Equation suggests that the atmosphere holds approximately 7% more water vapor for each 1°C increase in temperature. Therefore, one would expect a meaningful coefficient of determination between temperature and extreme rainfall amounts. That's exactly what one finds. The coefficient of determination between temperature and the top 1% daily rainfall events is 0.47. For the top 1% 2-day events, it is 0.48. That means that temperature explains 47% and 48% of such events respectively with warmer temperatures translating into more frequent and/or intense extreme rainfall events (this analysis dealt with intensity of events). That's almost half of the outcome for such events. It is also what one would expect from the basic physics expressed through the Clausius-Clapeyron Equation. What about the frequency of extreme events (measured here as daily precipitation of 3" or more)? The chart is displayed below. The coefficient of determination is much higher. It is 0.67. That means temperature explains two-thirds of the change/frequency in daily extreme precipitation events. Additional factors involved in the frequency and intensity of such events include, but are not limited to ENSO, teleconnections, storm tracks, local/mesoscale dynamics, and land-use effects. Nevertheless, temperature, alone, is a major variable. Any arguments made over Social Media that the warming climate plays virtually no role in the observed increase in extreme precipitation events (intensity and frequency) have no scientific merit. Not surprisingly, repeated attribution studies have found a direct connection to climate change where such events become more frequent and more intense, again consistent with the basic physics.

The weekend will conclude on a warm note tomorrow. Temperatures will top out mainly the lower and middle 80s through the weekend. Another round of heat could develop early next week with temperatures returning to the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s. No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +16.68 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.613 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal).

Some photos from the Metropolitan Museum of Art from today: