donsutherland1

Yes. This has been an issue. It’s unfortunate. The same applies to the foliage around the ASOS.

Periods of rain will continue through the night. The rain will depart from the region from west to east tomorrow. Rainfall will total a general 0.50"-1.50". Afterward, the sun could break out and the temperature will likely soar into the upper 50s and lower 60s in the New York City area. Middle 60s are likely from Washington, DC into southern New Jersey. An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal weather is now underway. March will likely see generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. The generally mild conditions could persist through mid-month. As has often been the case in recent months, the most impressive warmth in absolute temperatures and relative to normal will likely occur north and west of New York City. New York City will likely finish the first week of the month with an anomaly near 10° above normal despite frequent wet weather. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 10th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.65°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +4.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.091 today.

Based on all the snowfall seasons to date, it's currently about one-in-three.

The GFS figure is from 10:1 vendor maps, not the NOAA. Soundings show sleet during the height of the precipitation in NYC with a warm layer at 850 mb +/- 25 or so mb. Just as other model output is low skill at the timeframe involved, the same applies to the soundings. However, the other guidance is warmer. Until there is consensus toward the GFS idea, I'm reluctant to embrace the GFS's outlier solution. The temperature chart merely illustrates the range for past storms with specified temperatures. The point is that typically storms with above freezing temperatures tend to have lower snowfall amounts. Only a few have been moderate or larger. North and west of NYC, things would be more favorable. But we'll have to see where things stand in a few days when model skill begins to improve and when the synoptic picture itself becomes clearer. It's premature for the posting of operational model maps showing a snowy outcome for NYC. Indeed, just one member of the GEFS and not a single EPS member shows anything like the GFS did. There are many arguments for caution, not to mention that such events have been infrequent for NYC following winters as warm as the one the region just had. In sum, the base case is against the 12z GFS's significant snowfall for NYC (not necessarily well north and west of it). Something lighter is currently in play for NYC, JFK, and LGA. Until much changes (synoptic details, model/ensemble support, deeper cold farther south, etc.), there's little reason to depart from the base case.

The heaviest precipitation is finished by 204 hours, even as it's cold enough for snow. Hours 204-210 might be sufficient for 1"-2", if the model output is right. But at this point in time, it's speculative given the lack of other support and timeframe involved. My point is that the 7.8" total is unlikely without dramatic changes.

Some points about the 12z GFS's Day 8-9 Storm: 1. The GFS is in a timeframe where skill is low 2. The GFS lacks support from other global models and the ensembles 3. The GFS's soundings show readings remaining above freezing throughout the storm New York City's Above Freezing Snowfalls: In short, unless there is more than a marginal air mass and strong support from the other guidance, one should be skeptical of the snowfall amount (7.8") shown on the GFS. Ratios for any snow would be far lower than 10:1.

I agree. The trees have undercut the summer high temperatures. The trend in Central Park's summer high temperatures has diverged from those at nearby locations, further illustrating the cooling impact of the trees.

For New York City:

That’s if the summer has a neutral ENSO. The CFSv2 is quite aggressive in bringing La Niña for summer.

An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal weather is getting underway. March will likely see generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. The generally mild conditions could persist through mid-month. As has often been the case in recent months, the most impressive warmth in absolute temperatures and relative to normal will likely occur north and west of New York City. New York City will likely finish the first week of the month with an anomaly near 10° above normal despite frequent wet weather. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 10th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.65°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +0.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.920 today.

An example of poor run-to-run continuity: Snowfall Forecasts

FYI, Tropical Tidbits now posts the ECMWF's AI forecasts. It's 3/15 map screams "Beware of the Ides of March!" It's posted here for purposes of illustration only.

Some of the seasonal records were demolished.

With shrinking areas of cold globally, it is little surprise that warmer months are becoming more frequent even on a local basis. Below are monthly global GISS anomalies (2000-2023) and New York City's anomalies using the GISS baseline:

Winter futility through March 1st. Winter 2023-2024 would rank 5th. Snowfall following winters with mean temperatures of 40.0° or above in New York City has been low for the remainder of snow season.

While New York City experienced its fourth warmest winter on record, numerous locations saw their warmest winter on record. Some of those locations are below:

Extent is 15th. Volume is below:

Despite a transient cold shot to end the month, February finished with a mean temperature of 40.1° (4.2° above normal) in New York City. That tied 1954 and 2020 for the 9th warmest February on record. Winter 2023-2024 finished with a mean temperature of 40.6° in New York City. That was New York City's fourth warmest winter on record. For the first time since records began in 1869, New York City had two consecutive winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Parts of the United States concluded their warmest winter on record. Records were set in such cities as Albany, Burlington, Fargo, Milwaukee, and Minneapolis. Fargo smashed its winter record from 2015-2016 by 4.4°. Minneapolis registered 18 days during which the high temperature reached 50° or above. The old record was 8 days in Winter 1980-1981. Tonight will be another chilly but not severely cold night. The chill will disappear during the afternoon as readings soar into the 40s in New York City and possibly 50° in Philadelphia. Afterward, March will likely see generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region during that time. Overall, March will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.65°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +1.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.742 today.

2014-15. However, the small area of extreme cold was locked over the Northeast leading to a freezing of water bodies, including much of the Long Island Sound during a severely cold February.

FYI: The amount of frigid winter air is near a record low, and shrinking An analysis reveals this winter has had the second-smallest pool of cold air on record above the Northern Hemisphere, a clear sign of climate change. https://wapo.st/3Igzr59

NYC's coldest high this month was 36. That's the highest figure on record. The old record was 33. That record was set in 1997 and tied in 1998 and 2002. The lowest minimum temperature of 23 was the highest on record (old record: 22, 1927).

It’s a great site. It’s easy to use with a lot of information.

How often is extremeweatherwatch.com updated? There were dozens of monthly records set in North America during the last few days, including 15.7C at Ottawa yesterday.

Neutral ENSO winters can provide a range of extremes. Many factors are involved in shaping the winter outcomes.