donsutherland1

Good luck with the move. Hopefully, you will get some good snowfall this coming winter.

A quick note of caution about weekend storminess: The 12z ECMWF is currently an outlier. That a system will likely form out in the Atlantic is a reasonable idea. That it will bring a heavy rainfall to the New York City area is currently speculative. Most ensemble members have < 1" rainfall. There are also more dry ensemble members than 2" or above members, so a dry weekend is also a better possibility than the big rainfall amount shown on the 12z ECMWF. In sum, until there is a stronger and consistent signal, the potential for some rainfall seems appropriate. The idea of a significant nor'easter, especially as shown on the ECMWF, requires a lot more evidence.

Late summer warmth prevailed for another day. Highs reached the 80s in most parts of the region. Preliminary highs in the Northeast included: Albany: 83° Bangor: 80° Bridgeport: 80° Burlington: 86° (old record: 83°, 2023) Caribou: 79° (old record: 77°, 1946 and 2005) Hartford: 85° Islip: 83° (tied record from 2002) New Haven: 82° New York City-Central Park: 84° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 86° Newark: 87° Philadelphia: 83° Poughkeepsie: 86° White Plains: 83° (tied record set in 2017) Montreal, Quebec City, and Toronto were among Canadian cities setting new daily temperature records today. Six locations in Quebec reached 86° (30.0°C) or above. Tomorrow and Tuesday will see a continuation of above normal temperatures. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. A strong cold front will likely cross the region around midweek. The frontal passage will likely bring some heavy showers or thundershowers. The potential exists for 0.50"-1.00" of rain. A shot of much cooler air will follow. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was +4.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.033 today.

Here's how October has fared in New York City and Newark. The rate of warming has been very gradual, though there has been some acceleration since 1980. The chart's anomalies are based on the 20th century mean temperature for October. For Central Park, the 1991-2020 baseline temperature is 57.9° vs. the 20th century figure of 57.6°. Note: Octobers with large amounts of missing data were excluded.

There were 3 prior cases: 1881-1882, 1889-1890, 1931-1932. 2023-2024 (34.8° was a near miss). Suburbs are cooler. In the larger picture, I don't think Detroit and its vicinity have any worries that winter will essentially become unrecognizable for decades to come.

The latest CFSv2 SST forecast is showing an outlook that bears some similarity to the Winter 2012-13 anomalies in the Pacific (ENSO Regions northward). Winter 2012-2013 SSTAs: Winter 2012-13 was classified as a neutral-cool winter on ONI, but a La Niña winter on RONI (DJF: -0.62). That's within the realm of plausible scenarios this winter, though I expect the ENSO R3.4 and ONI anomalies to be a bit cooler this time around. Winter 2012-13 was warmer than normal in the eastern half of the U.S., but it wasn't a "blowtorch" winter. The most notable aspects of this winter were a big southern New England snowstorm and seasonal snowfall totals that ranged from much below normal in Washington, DC, somewhat below normal in New York City, and well above normal in Boston. Snowfall totals ranged from below normal in Chicago to near normal in Detroit. October 2012 saw much more widespread cool anomalies than is likely this time around. Finally, the CFSv2 winter temperature forecast differs markedly from the 2012-13 scenario. Models take into consideration far more than SSTs. This is a key point. One should not get caught up with whether there will or won't be a "blob" at this point in time. SSTs can change. Moreover, they are one variable, even if they are important. Finally, the CFSv2's latest forecast is the coolest so far for the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Meanwhile, late summer conditions will prevail today from the Great Lakes region, across southern Ontario and Quebec, into the northeastern United States.

From BLM:

I believe any transition to structurally lower snowfall at Detroit is at least several decades away. 35° or above winter warmth will likely remain very uncommon for at least the next 20 or more years.

Under bright sunshine, much of the region saw temperatures soar into the 80s. Areas immediately on the coastline were a bit cooler. Preliminary highs included: Hartford: 80° Islip: 83° (tied record set in 2023) New York City-Central Park: 82° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 83° Newark: 87° Poughkeepsie: 82° White Plains: 82° Tomorrow will be another very warm day. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few of the warmest spots will reach the middle and perhaps upper 80s. The warm weather will continue through early next week. Another strong cold front will likely cross the region around midweek. The frontal passage will likely bring some showers or thundershowers. A shot of much cooler air will follow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was +4.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.096 today.

Islip has reached 83°. That ties the daily record set in 2023.

92 is its October monthly record.

He was referring to New York City (Central Park). Interior sections are cooler than NYC's heat island. For example, using the two seasons you cited, the winter mean temperatures were as follows at nearby SMQ: 2017-18: 31.7° and 2020-21: 32.6°. For Central Park, the winter mean temperatures were 36.1° for both winters. Here's how 50" seasons disappear in New York City's historic climate record: Mean Winter Temperature above 32° (qualifying 50" or above seasons are denoted in red): Mean Winter Temperature above 33° (qualifying 50" or above seasons are denoted in red): Mean Winter Temperature above 34° (qualifying 50" or above seasons are denoted in red): New York City (JFK, LaGuardia, and Central Park) has never had a 50" season with a mean winter temperature above 35.0°. In the broader Mid-Atlantic, Washington, DC has a single case at 35.8°, so under the right circumstances, the upper-bound is higher than what New York City's climate record shows. On the issue of a VEI-7 eruption, it would lead to short-lived but rapid global cooling (perhaps several tenths of a degree C). Mid-latitudes would generally see appreciable cooling. Internal variability can still result in sufficiently cold winters, but the kind of cold typically associated with 50" or above snowfall seasons in New York City is decreasing in frequency. Even last winter was at the outer fringes of temperatures consistent with such snowfall in New York City's climate record. Interior sections away from the coast and outside the major heat islands of the big cities remain sufficiently cool for more frequent 50" or above seasons, and they will remain that way for several more decades at a minimum. However,@bluewavewas addressing New York City. He wasn't making an argument outside of New York City.

To illustrate @bluewavepoint about warming winters and reduced frequency of 50” snow seasons in NYC, here’s a chart that depicts winters with mean temperatures below 35 (blue) and 35 or above (red) and seasonal snowfall.

Significant dry conditions (widespread negative Palmer Z-Index anomalies). The greens/blues are dry; the yellows/oranges are wet:

Yes. Values are assigned based on their range. One can manually make adjustments.

Yes.

The shading is based on the historic figures. Next time, I will manually force the same y-axis.

Here you go. Historic: 1869-2025: 2000-2025: Note: October 1-3 goes through 2025 while October 4-31 goes through 2024.

Frequency of 80° or above highs at Central Park: 1869-2025: 2000-2025: Note: October 4-31 is from 1869-2024.

Today got off to another chilly start. Many areas outside New York City again saw the temperature start out in the 40s with colder spots recording 30s. Low temperatures included: Bridgeport: 48° Danbury: 41° Islip: 47° Montgomery: 35° New Haven: 45° New York City-Central Park: 54° New York City-JFK Airport: 51° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57° Newark: 51° Poughkeepsie: 39° Sussex: 38° Westhampton: 35° White Plains: 47° In parts of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, daily and monthly high temperature records were set. Green Bay (88°) and Rapid City (96°) tied their October monthly records. Philip, SD reached 98°, breaking its October monthly record of 97° for October 1, 1953. The New York City area will be on the fringes of this exceptionally warm air mass this weekend into early next week. A warm weekend lies ahead. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. The warm weather will continue early next week. Another strong cold front will likely cross the region around midweek. The frontal passage will likely bring some showers or thundershowers. A shot of much cooler air will follow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was +5.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.374 today.

I believe he's describing the declining number of snow days.

Once the winter mean temperature reaches 34.0° or above, the frequency of 50" or above snow seasons largely but not completely disappears. Washington, DC's 35.8° (2009-10) is the single case above 35.0° among all of the listed locations. For Central Park and also additional locations:

Yes, the cold season is being compressed. Lows of 32° or below: Lows < 20°: Highs of 32° or below:

It’s rare in the lower elevations and about a once-every-five-year occurrence in the mountains. Belgrade’s first snowfall is typically November 30 (earliest: October 7, 1897: Trace).

Highly unlikely. Since 1869, only 1891 (October 5) and 2002 (October 7) had the last 70 or above high on or before October 7 at Central Park. Records go back to 1869.