DopplerWx
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Everything posted by DopplerWx
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we knew this was coming, makes it a bit easier to accept. likely not going to see snow in clt at this juncture. sleet and rain it is.
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nam warmer again. tick. tick. tick.
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nam warmer than 06z. snow line well north.
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and that one had the snow line much farther south this far out than this one. even the day before it had the snow line down into upper sc.
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just go look through the soundings for clt and rdu over the past 3-4 runs and the trend will be evident. in our locations you just can't hang your hat on a razor thin snow sounding, because it hardly (if ever) works out for us.
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models will be consistently wrong if they don't have the warm nose modeled correctly. we have seen this time and time again.
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very concerning that the 6z nam has already switched from the initial snow from yesterday's run for clt to immediate rain and sleet. i have seen this happen before and would not shock me to see the warm nose trend warmer as we get closer to saturday night. not good signs at all if you love snow.
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nam already firing the warning shots showing minimal to no snow for clt and all rain and sleet at the onset. i know how this movie ends.
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soundings not as good for clt this run, flirting with sleet most of the storm. prob realistic.
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wow, good look here
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out to 81 and the snow line looks nearly indentical to the 18z euro.
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wow, snow line continues to shift south
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18z all snow (almost) for clt.
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wow, fv3 even colder.
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yea at 90 soundings for clt look really good. took a bit to cool down.
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soundings dont look as good thru 84 for kclt though.
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at 84 its about identical to 12z
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gfs looks a tick cooler out to 72 vs 12z, initial precip coming into sc/nc
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ukie verification scores lately have been pretty solid too. above even the fv3
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this is a telling statement from nws gsp. We are approaching increases in the official fcst QPF cautiously since even modest snow ratios from these values would result in snow/sleet accumulations that might be a once-in-a-generation event for parts of the Piedmont.
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to me it seems likely we see initial snow sat night into sunday morning before a changeover, no matter what that is a win this early in december. give me an inch or 2 and i will be more than happy.
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i know we keep saying it but jan 2017 storm had the ensembles showing insane totals just like these and the waa screwed many of us. expecting a loooot of sleet with this one.
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here is an image to save, from the 12z gfs for charlotte lol.
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it is about to transfer offshore sc. just like 06z.
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fv3 looks very similar to the gfs at 96hr.
