DopplerWx
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Everything posted by DopplerWx
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center tightening up and convection firing around the center now that she is over the gulf stream, several models showed strengthening as it approached the coast and took the left turn. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir
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got a link? EDIT: nevermind, found it https://www.surfline.com/surf-report/oceanana-pier/584204204e65fad6a7709992
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3k nam just offshore wilmington at 15hr. shows the core really tightening up as it approached the coast.
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euro and gfs not far off, euro just a bit more offshore but both take very similar paths.
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of course joe had to put the loop with a possible emergence off the northeast coast lol.
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agree, western eyewall looks really good now, recon about to head thru it too, lets see how the winds have responded. https://weather.us/satellite/692-w-301-n/top-alert-superhd-1min/20180912-1243z.html
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when is recon going back in? haven't had a flight since this morning?
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ended up a tick slower than the 12z gfs but pretty close to the same landfall location.
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identical to the gfs at 48 EDIT: now it is a bit further east at 54.
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yep gfs south and west thru 36 as well.
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great post, thanks for the verification maps. looks like it will all come down to that turn and how far the ridge stretches.
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fv3 has shifted sw significantly the past 3 runs, comings towards the EPS solutions of a myrtle landfall. i think we see the eps score a coup here as models continue to converge on myrtle over the next 72hrs.
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that is yesterday's run
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gfs pretty far east this run, wtf?
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posted in main thread but it is south of nhc track. https://media.giphy.com/media/wHZcnh2bTCBA2f0a8i/giphy.gif
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if im on the sc coast the 00z EPS would reinforce the fact that preparation is vital. the nhc cone is there for a reason.
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yep, like irma's guidance just farther north.
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gfs comes in sw and slows it down again. have to think it may still be a bit too far N but it moves towards the euro for sure. big to see as it has been an obx landfall the last 6-7 runs or so.
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this is what concerned me, models shifting south as we close in. luckily the gfs still shows an offshore stall but the euro ensembles all being at the nc/sc border and some further south is worrisome.
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Pretty concerned that we may see a shift west inside 72 hrs like we did with Irma, except this time it wouldn’t be good for SC.
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looks like a sc landfall incoming on the euro. right over the gulf stream too.
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pretty concerning as i wouldn't be shocked to see the ridge even stronger than modeled. recurvature sure seems less and less likely at this point. also, with the expected forward speed over the warm gulf stream as it approaches the coast, would not be surprised to see minimal weakening prior to any possible landfall.
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great song!
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Radar is so typical for a rdu snow, shouldn't even be that surprised.
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i moved away so rdu will jackpot. snow curse has been lifted.
