DopplerWx
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and then the low jumps over myrtle and the obx and areas outside the mtns go to rain
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yea sounding looks much better at kclt this run. all snow thru 96.
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looks like a snow sounding thru 102 at clt. maybe a bit colder this run?
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its identical at 84.
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if the gfs is correct w/ the lp location then the warm nose would def mess with you guys. sounding in the midst of the precip shows it.
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yep, i have my umbrella ready for the rain and a streetlight ready to squint into looking for the stray snowflake that mixes in.
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how are temps for clt on the euro? initial start as snow before a changeover to rain?
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at 120 with good precip our sounding is razor thin, maybe all snow but likely some sleet mixing. but if we are talking razor thin margins this far out i know which way it will likely trend.
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yea thru 126 you're soundings look all snow pretty comfortably.
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absolutely massive warm nose at 126 for kclt.
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charlotte to raleigh, toss in the towel. not sure we even see snowflakes at this point. writing is on the wall.
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yea this isnt good for clt to rdu. lp inland and this will be a cold rain.
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encouraging to see the icon bring the snow line south finally.
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good find, yeah that's probably about right.
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i know but i remember in jan 2017 every single ensemble member showed 12"+ for rdu, and i was thinking that there was no way they would all be wrong on temps. and they all were and we got a sleetfest.
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yep, climo says no and we are dealing with marginal cold at best. anyone outside of the mountains that has their hopes up needs to save themselves a lot of heartbreak and expect rain. any snow falling before christmas is a win. these clown maps are ridiculous and they give people the expectation of monster totals, when in reality even an inch of snow in early december would be amazing.
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for our decent storms the warm nose doesn't bring us back down to reality until 48-72hrs out, so to see this so early is not good. mountains and foothills are understandably excited but if anyone thinks CLT and RDU aren't in for a classic screwjob you're mistaken. That 2017 snow/ice map is probably going to be close to reality for this event.
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rain snow line is just north of clt it looks like at 120
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gotta be careful to not let your weenie out.
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a little better than i first thought for CLT on the 12z gfs.
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soundings for clt aren't good verbatim. a lot of sleet and frz rain with plain cold rain to start.
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31 and sleet for clt in the middle of the storm.
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good lord, i cannot imagine.
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what a nice storm to welcome you back to the SE snow reality. hoping for the best but expecting the worst.
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that is one thing that gives me a little hope, if we can get cad to over perform we will be in really good shape as qpf doesn't look to be an issue at all.
