OHweather

Looks like a sneaky few inches of snow in the higher elevations tonight. Will be curious to see if any of you get a decent accumulation! Weird system with an expected brief burst of heavy snow behind the cold front...and then a bit of lake effect into Sunday.

I’m laughably surprised that 2-4” somehow worked out for a large chunk of Ohio (ok maybe more like 1.5-3”). But of course it literally did nothing on the roads.

I’m thinking Coating to 2” covers it for the state now. Euro has been dethroned the last few weeks. Been way off and beaten by the gfs on several systems.

Two separate waves have been signaled for that time period in the span of like 3 days, so I think there will be something to track. The cold appears to be retreating a bit by then, so I have to think a more wound up storm that has ptype issues would be more likely with those waves...that said, at the least some front end snow is possible, we'll see if the cold can hang on and maybe allow for more (I have my doubts, but I've also been wrong before!)

It’s suppression from the lobe of the polar vortex. It’s what would’ve stopped this from amping with the PNA/AO/NAO otherwise supporting more of a cutter. I’m a little surprised this is the way it went if only because it potentially benifits I-95 from BOS-PHL in a winter where they’ve constantly gotten screwed. That said the models still show snow for all day Sunday except for perhaps the northernmost portion of Ohio. North of roughly Route 30 it will be rather ho hum just 1-2” probably, but I’d be surprised if central Ohio didn’t end up under an advisory for 2-4”/3-5” with some warnings for like 4-7” in far southern/SE Ohio where they do still get into a slightly deeper moisture feed as the storm departs. Sorry this couldn’t turn into anything better...the pieces were there, but the alignment of the PV ended up too suppressive. That said, it is still an accumulating snow...and I still don’t trust this not to pull a little last second amped trend as it moves east into the Plains tomorrow, though no it won’t be a foot like some Euro runs tossed out. Edit: So I'm on the record here's my first attempt. I think the low end will be met, we'll see how widespread the high end is. With this being a light to moderate daytime snow in March, impacts kind of muted where you're not getting 4"+...so essentially, widespread snow, but also blegh.

A bit surprised to see suppression winning out, but it’s also what N NJ needed to not flip to rain so no complaints. We’ll take a little needle threading with well timed suppression from the PV, as it’s gone the other way several times. As a side comment, the Euro has been as inconsistent as any other major global model this winter. It’s gotten cleaned out by the GFS and Canadian with a few of these events on the east coast the last week or so.

CMH hit 25” of snow on the season this evening. DAY was already over that mark. I’m not sure what they “rejected” as snow but if it fell from the sky as something solid and accumulated more than 0.1” it counts towards the total, per any current guidelines on how to measure snow. Your contorted version of reality is once again wrong. I’m not trying to “turd polish” because this winter has lacked a good prolonged deep winter period in Ohio, but it has snowed at slightly quicker than the climatological clip...actually after the awful start it’s been snowing at a pretty good clip since the second week of January to get everyone to normal.

CMH reported 1” last hour with 2” on the ground, which will push them to around 25” on the season. If you’re not careful you’ll be into the 30s by Monday morning. Average is 26-27” for the season.

Sunday's event is the type of storm that Ohio usually gets their better snow storms from. Obviously a less amped solution would have QPF issues to the north while an amped solution would have mixing issues south, but the general broad, moisture-laden WSW-ENE moving low pressure is a good look. I'd lean closer to the Euro than the GFS as the strong temp gradient/good jet dynamics/good moisture in the warm sector support a deepening storm as it moves east...but, the shortwave is on the flat side so need to watch the polar vortex interaction for some suppression if the wave doesn't come out completely in one piece or if the PV is displaced even somewhat farther SE. Euro has great ensemble support though.

My general thoughts here are that the low will be on the strong side of guidance initially over the Plains due to a very tight temp gradient, good dual jet support, and high PWATs in the warm sector all supporting robust cyclogenesis over the Plains, and the fact that this is often under-modeled until it's onoing (which is why last second NW trends are so common). This is obviously a positive for those on the northern/western edge. The shortwave however is flat and fairly quick moving, which will put some sort of lid on max amounts (though obviously, it won't take much to get a swath of warning criteria snows somewhere given the positives). Farther east the track will depend heavily on the location/intensity of the PV lobe, which will be determined by the interplay between the -EPO ridge, weak ridge over the western NAO domain, and the PV itself. The very strong, east based nature of the EPO may normally support a suppressed solution, but the weak faux NAO ridge breaking down quickly can still allow for enough height rises over the eastern US to overcome that. However, if the PV is farther south the rather flat shortwave won't be difficult to suppress. The departing wave off the East Coast may also act to slightly dampen the height field over the east (though it ultimately won't be a large influence). Generally I feel there's more favoring the amped/north solution, though would caution that it wouldn't take much to suppress a rather flat wave from the much stronger PV. This ultimately will end up closer to today's amped solutions than the very suppressed ones from a day or two ago, though exactly how close is the question.

The location of the Polar Vortex to the north will determine the outcome of this storm...if it's far enough north this storm will strengthen along the tight temp gradient and could drop a decent swath of snow across central or northern OH, though if the PV is even a little farther south it ends up quite a bit less amped. Sensitive situation. Northern OH in all likelihood won't rain, but how much QPF is a question. Central/southern OH should be a bit safer for at least some precip, but would likely mix or rain with the stronger solution. Almost all guidance including most Euro ensemble members are less amped than the op Euro right now.

This winter goes to show how much NE OH's snowfall climo depends on frequent light to moderate snows with an occasional prolonged lake effect/enhanced event. You guys pulled off your biggest synoptic storm since the 2010-11 winter, and are still way below normal. So different here on the east coast where some areas (especially NYC to BOS still) remain pretty far in the hole, but could get a chunk of that back with one storm. NE OH has a hard time making up ground without a rare big storm (either synoptic or LES) if they go a few weeks with little snow, which has happened several times this winter.

Yeah, the northern cutoff ended up being a bit abrupt. CLE reported a 1"/hr rate in the 7-8am hour but the radar has been more paltry for Lake/Geauga on east. Not a great northeast OH winter...

Looks like 3-5" panned out across Franklin County...Dayton was on a gradient with 4-5" north and probably 2" south. ILN's office got an inch of snow and almost a quarter inch of ice. The idea went well but I was probably 10 or 20 miles too generous with my 1-2 and 2-4" southern cutoffs...the 3-6" area seems to be going well. Too bad it happened so early in the morning, hard to beat thundersnow in terms of excitement. I've been at work since 3:30 AM which is why I've been so involved in the wee hours of the morning.

DAY reported another 2" last hour (4" on the ground, now mixing with freezing rain) and CMH reported 1" last hour (with 2" on the ground).

Big puffy balls of sleet I guess. It did sleet all the way up to Troy and then changed back to snow about as far south as the middle of Dayton when the thunderstorms moved in. The visibility also really dropped at the airport when that happened. You must've not been watching? Or are well south of KDAY? The sleet line is inching back north now so DAY likely goes back over to it before much longer. If it was really all sleet as you claim and they got 2" in an hour, that'd be even more nuts than if it was snow.

Maybe you're just north of Wright Pat. I've been checking ODOT cams it is snowing in/north of downtown Dayton. The CC line on radar is pretty accurate based on where you can see snow flakes on cameras.

You must be south of the airport. And yes, you count sleet as snow.

KDAY just reported 2" in the last hour and was mixing with freezing rain or sleet until 4:24AM! Nuts!

The convection is pushing the mixing line back south...Dayton is snowing again (KDAY reporting thunder snow!) and the Columbus airports are starting to flip again too...if you're struggling and along/north of 70 farther east should improve when the convection moves east.

Yeah, a good chunk has gotten into SW OH too the last half hour or so. The CC line on radar is trying to fight back near Dayton and Columbus, so we'll see if the dynamic cooling can happen. Mixing did get rather far north quickly with much of Columbus currently mixing... someone is going to get drilled and it'd be nice if it can be a majority of our central Ohio posters in this thread and not just the northern folks.

Dayton airport (which is N of downtown) reported 1" of snow last hour. Per the correlation coefficient (CC), the heavier precip moving into Cincinnati is attempting to flip things back for snow. For Cincinnati not sure if this ends up doing anything, but farther north along southern cutoff it might make a difference and was needed to get the southern edge of the heavier snow to work out. The precip moving WSW-ENE out of southern IN is convective and has some lightning, and is what would bring the heaviest rates to OH. I think Columbus hangs on long enough to see snow during this, but it's still close...much more certain a little north. A narrow portion of southern OH may do well with freezing rain as some stations have already gone to it south of route 50 and still have modest dry air advecting in...could see some spots crack 0.10" ice accumulation.

In terms of warnings it is debatable. There is no where near the required 80% confidence in 6”+ occurring in any given spot (even if it’s possible, it’s not that confident)...but based on impacts an argument could be made that several counties near I-70 particularly near/E/NE of Franklin could be upgraded on an impact based basis. Even that is a little flimsy as confidence still isn’t great, though at this point most signs are pointing towards that area getting hit reasonably hard for a few hours.

This should be a half decent thump of snow tomorrow morning (thinking 2-3" for Cleveland and increasing quickly to the south) as it keeps trending north/beefier...but as you guys brought up, it warms up and rains by tomorrow afternoon. Hopefully it's a scenic wet snow when it comes down at least.

Here's my guess. Confidence is obviously lower than normal. I'm confident in a 3-6" band but not confident on southern extent, and there is an all or nothing element to this type of event. Everything still supports a lot of QPF and the expectation is that wet bulbing/dynamic cooling will slow the northern translation of the change to rain enough to allow for a decent accumulation of snow. I'm thinking that as it comes into Ohio the precip starts changing to sleet/snow and farther north mainly snow. The heaviest precip appears to be between 3 AM and 9 AM from west to east as a band of convection wraps into the frontogenetically forced band of precip across central Ohio...hi-res models are explicitly showing QPF rates of 0.10-0.25"+ per hour when that occurs. Soundings are close to supporting thunder in central and southern Ohio in that window. Strong lift in the DGZ and a deep layer close to freezing in the low-level may allow for large, aggregated dendrites during that convective snow. That is the precip that should slow the northern progression of the mixing while it occurs and may even cause areas to flip back to sleet or snow a bit farther south. However, it is a short window with little margin for error. The mesoscale forcing isn't as strong in northern Ohio, though vort advection aloft and very strong upper-level ventilation into a near record-strong jet streak to the north/northeast will allow light to moderate snow (with fewer thermal profile issues) to extend north into all of northern Ohio. My thinking is that the precip comes into Ohio as sleet/snow...near and north of I-70 it likely is mostly snow at the onset due to plenty of room to wet-bulb. Farther south may start as sleet/snow and try going to rain quickly, but then possibly flip back to snow as the convection and heavy rates work through closer to dawn. This is the area of most uncertainty. It's possible the US 50 corridor including Cincinnati and Athens doesn't flip back to snow during the heavy precip and sees little if any accumulation...though if they do flip even for an hour or two they may quickly get 2-4". Along I-70 there isn't much margin for error but I feel better about them being mainly snow during the heaviest precip...farther north confidence does increase quite a bit. Because the temp gradient is oriented more WNW-ESE, it wouldn't be surprising if heavy snow occurs a bit farther south over eastern Ohio than western Ohio. Given the dynamics, QPF and rates I'm quite confident in a band of 3-6" occurring somewhere north of I-70 where it's all snow, so the bust potential along and south of that corridor (including Columbus and especially Dayton) has more to do with questions over ptype during the heaviest burst. There has been a slight tick north today which makes southern Ohio even more questionable than it was off the bat. In terms of what the ceiling is, hi-res models are showing intense lift in the DGZ with the convective precip around sunrise...if that can fall as all snow for more than 2-3 hours someone can probably rip off a quick 8"...but good luck forecasting that. If I had to guess where it would possibly be, somewhere in Delaware/Licking/Morrow/Knox/Holmes/Coshocton/Tusc/Guernsey Counties would probably have the best shot. Good luck in your respective back yards!